Ed Oliver big extension

[PBF81]

42 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I was not an Edmunds' hater. We were better when he was in the lineup, even though he lacked instincts and seemed to guess wrong and chase a lot. Nonetheless, I'd like to see how we do with a lb that has instincts, which Dorian Williams appears to possess. In general, I think DT is a more valuable position, and I am cautiously optimistic that Oliver can still improve and make plays more consistently. As to your rhetorical question, it's evident McD and OBD think keeping Oliver is the right play. You keep asking what if Oliver doesn't improve or is beset by nagging injuries? But of course, that is begging the question. Naturally, if that happens it is not a good signing, but those who think the signing worthwhile do not presume that scenario, nor are they rationally compelled to do so. In the end, we'll all have to wait and see. I think it's rather amusing that your default view of Oliver is similar to my default view of Gabe Davis (granted, not a first round pick, but presumably an important factor on his side of the ball), so base line opinions determine how one reacts to these kind of developments.

 

Thanks

 

Interesting that you mention Davis.  A lot of people using the "Oliver was injured" excuse, but few giving the same lattitude to Davis.  

 

For the mid-4th Round pick that Davis was, he's outperformed 11 or possibly 12 of the 16 WRs taken before him with the last one having been taken 36 picks before him in the mid-3rd.  IMO it will be a huge mistake to let him leave.  He's easily the best value (Round-to-Performance) pick that Beane's made.  He runs low-percentage routes, not the routes of say a slot WR, he takes too much heat for a low catch%.  It's a little low by comps, but not nearly as bad as many make out.  I've provided the comps here before.  

 

Also, on that video of three plays that someone posted a few days ago, talking about how Saffold folded, on the first and third plays where Allen went to Diggs, Davis was equally open and easily could have logged another 50-70 yards on them.  

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by PBF81

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

this is arguable with some on the boards and i am not here to argue a fair opinion for the first bolded.

 

To the rest? We have not seen the best out of Oliver because of injuries... @Simon was kind enough to educate me on this matter and I looked it up. What we do not know is 1. how much those injuries effected his game post injury while he was not 100%. 2. Players are different when you surround them with talent. He ad some good games with Von by his side and even last years preseason practices... They said they could not have von and oliver on the field at the same time cause our offense would get blown up all the time. Now that was not saying much but that did show that against average with single player on him and a 1 tech DT on his other side.. his game was vastly elevated. 

 

Only time will tell. 

That's fair. Surely, nothing about Oliver is set in stone. He could absolutely improve or vice versa. 

 

Many here have differing opinions and that's the beauty of this forum. 

[folz]

If nothing else, it will be interesting to watch the players the Bills and their fans seem to disagree on.

 

It seems the Bills have more faith in Spencer Brown, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Ed Oliver than many fans do...and, in a turn from the last few years, it seems the fans had more faith in Edmunds than the Bills did (while the Bills believe they have an answer at Mike, but many fans still think its a big hole). Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. 

 

Also, as fans, we are often reacting to transactions in a vacuum (this one deal on its own). But so much goes into the decision: the cap, other players' contracts and when they are due, the market for that position, how much the cap will raise in the future, the possible availability or not of certain positions in the next draft or free agency period, player performance, did injuries or something else affect their play (weak play around them or whatever), etc., etc. 

 

Before the deal, I probably would have been fine letting Ed play out his contract and move on like Tremaine (unless he busted out this year, but then we probably couldn't afford him). But let's face it, though he might not be elite, he is certainly no liability. He provides above average play with room still to grow (hopefully). I don't think his production would be as easily replaced or upgraded (as some seem to think) drafting at the bottom of the draft as we do and being strapped for cap space next year as well. And if he does take another step this year, then we have him at a serious bargain, rather than watching him go to another team next year for top dollar. It's not really a big risk or a win/lose scenario because at worst, we still get very solid play (maybe just not elite)...but Ed at least has a high floor...he isn't a weakness on the team by any means (just hasn't lived up to his lofty draft status yet).

 

These aren't easy or exact decisions. Sometimes you let a Teller go, sometimes you overpay a Star. But I do trust that Sean and Brandon at least take into account all of the variables and always try to make the best decision. And they aren't afraid to admit it and/or cut bait when they realize they were wrong. No one will be right (especially not us fans) with every decision that needs to be made. But this decision at least makes sense to me. The old, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

 

[PrimeTime101]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

That's fair. Surely, nothing about Oliver is set in stone. He could absolutely improve or vice versa. 

 

Many here have differing opinions and that's the beauty of this forum. 

and the unfortunate part of the forums. to many trolls. to many awful narratives. But we all have the right to our opinions.

[TheWeatherMan]

2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

and the unfortunate part of the forums. to many trolls. to many awful narratives. But we all have the right to our opinions.

We all have the right to our opinions, but if yours differs from my opinion you’re a troll with an awful narrative.  🤦 

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, TheWeatherMan said:

We all have the right to our opinions, but if yours differs from my opinion you’re a troll with an awful narrative.  🤦 

there is a difference between voicing an opinion and trolling... you know damn straight you do both. 

4 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

We all have the right to our opinions, but if yours differs from my opinion you’re a troll with an awful narrative.  🤦 

and you keep posting those faces because you know I am right...

2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

there is a difference between voicing an opinion and trolling... you know damn straight you do both. 

 

[Dr. Who]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks

 

Interesting that you mention Davis.  A lot of people using the "Oliver was injured" excuse, but few giving the same lattitude to Davis.  

 

For the late 4th Round pick that Davis was, he's outperformed 11 or possibly 12 of the WRs taken before him.  IMO it will be a huge mistake to let him leave.  He's easily the best value (Round-to-Performance) pick that Beane's made.  He runs low-percentage routes, not the routes of say a slot WR, he takes too much heat for a low catch%.  It's a little low by comps, but not nearly as bad as many make out.  I've provided the comps here before.  

 

Also, on that video of three plays that someone posted a few days ago, talking about how Saffold folded, on the first and third plays where Allen went to Diggs, Davis was equally open and easily could have logged another 50-70 yards on them.  

 

 

I think it can both be true that Davis has outperformed his draft status and that he is not a solid WR2. I don't think he's terrible, though imo he is terribly inconsistent. There are mitigating factors and oline insufficiencies unduly affect a player who is best at the long ball. There's no doubt, however, that if Davis had been given the extension and not Oliver, I would be unhappy with Beane on that account. 

[Buffalosouth]

Is he about to get awesome?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

The problem with most posters here is they expect hall of fame caliber players at every position and then hope for a home town discount when its time to resign them.  And when they don’t get both, they think you can draft that player and have them produce as rookies.  Of course, either scenario rarely happens.  
 

Oliver is a good player and they’re keeping him at a reasonable price in the current NFL market.  I’m glad he’s staying on the team. It’s one less hole in the roster going forward.   

They drafted him at 9.

 

You need absolute excellence for top 10 picks 

[dollars 2 donuts]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

Disrespectfully, you are wrong.

 

Then Planet Sex, save me a room!

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Haven't seen any contract details posted and not planning to try and read through 36 pages to look for it.  Could be the same issue as last week with Hopkins, until the league office opens Monday, not one will know much WRT contract structure.  Having said that: 

 

Last off season can recall reading many threads how they shouldn't sign Edmunds to an extension or should trade him.  Neither happened, now he's gone and probably the #1 off season topic here at TBD is who is going to play MLB this coming year.   If we didn't sign Oliver likely would be having the same conversation a year from now about DT.

 

Oliver is far from a bust as some suggest.  He's an above average starting caliper player, probably rated in the top 20 to 30 range and now will be paid in the top 15 range.  If he'd been drafted in round 2 or 3, there's be no complaints, but instead was drafted top 10.

 

By the time Oliver is in year 3 of this contract. his salary will be a bargain assuming even he stays at the same level of play from him.

 

Seen some posts stating that Kyle Williams was a better player, maybe, but took him a long number of years to get to that level.  Oliver is still only 25!

 

Likely if they didn't sign him now he'd be gone in the off season as if he played even slightly better, he'd have been offered a contract by some team more than the Bills could afford.  And if he played poorly, the Bills would have offered him less, but likely some other team still would have topped the Bills offer and he'd be gone.  IMO players on 5th year options who aren't signed to extensions tend to have a bit of a chip on their shoulder that the team didn't give them an extension, I'm not wanted here so I'm gone.  There's no home town discount in that situation. 

 

Players too realize that their 2nd contract is the one they need to cash in on for every $$ they can get.  By the time a 3rd contract comes up, more likely to take a home town discount assuming they like the team and they are winning to some level.   Poyer comes to mind in that wouldn't be surprised if he could have got more elsewhere, but wanted to return.

 

Think this deal is made as being in a win now mode.  If the Bills had traded him, we'd be weaker at DT this year and not likely to find an equal or better player unless willing to pay even more.  If they didn't sign him, as stated MO he likely would have left after this year as some other team would have over paid for him.  Likely would have drafted his replacement and even if there's no improvement at all from Oliver, the odds of a rookie coming in and being equal to or better are slim.  Yes we'd have had money to spend, but the team  probably would not have been as good in 2023 or 24 overall.  So they over paid a bit now, but can get out of contract after 2 or at most 3 seasons with minimal cap hit particularly when compared to overall salaries by 2025.

 

Overall a bit surprised, but am OK with it as the team is better with him playing than with an future unknown filling his spot.  And maybe this move is being made to free up money to sign Hopkins.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

They drafted him at 9.

 

You need absolute excellence for top 10 picks 

 

If only it were so easy. I think history tells us the draft is pretty much a crap shoot from #1 to Mr Irrelevant. Giving a guy a second contract that reflects what they expect of him is a good sign, IMO. It could certainly look worse, as Bill fans well know. 

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

We all have the right to our opinions, but if yours differs from my opinion you’re a troll with an awful narrative.  🤦 

Depends on your definition of a troll. Certainly one risks that label if you have a negative critique. Vice versa and you are clearly in a "safe zone."

[finn]

B+ contract for a B+ player. 

[Dan]

9 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

They drafted him at 9.

 

You need absolute excellence for top 10 picks 

And therein lies the issue I think most people have.   He was drafted at #9. If he was the exact same player, from day 1, and drafted in the 2nd round people would be more than happy today.  
 

Draft position is irrelevant, IMO, if the the guy is starting from his rookie season on. He was a good pick then, and a good player now.  

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think it can both be true that Davis has outperformed his draft status and that he is not a solid WR2. I don't think he's terrible, though imo he is terribly inconsistent. There are mitigating factors and oline insufficiencies unduly affect a player who is best at the long ball. There's no doubt, however, that if Davis had been given the extension and not Oliver, I would be unhappy with Beane on that account. 

 

FTR I've never taken the position that he's not a solid #2.  I think he's fine in that role.  

 

To me however, given the lattitude that's been given to Oliver for playing injured, why doesn't Davis get the same lattitude for playing with a nagging ankle injury for most of the season?  Allen got it for his elbow too.  

 

All of Davis' 3rd-down catches went for 1st-Downs.  He tied for 15th in the league in receiving TDs.  He was open on many a play where Allen threw to Diggs instead, with Diggs even dropping some of those catches or with Davis being more wide open and often on single, not double coverage (or more) like Diggs was.  He easily could have had 900 or 1,000 yards receiving and ranked in the top-10 for TDs.  

 

Here's the kicker, the team, meaning McBeane, are more apologetic about him than they are about Oliver.  Yet people here are all ready to toss Davis overboard but are elated with Oliver's extension.  Why?  I mean if the "Beane & McD know better what they're doing than we do," why the difference in sentiments?  

 

And let's suppose that Davis has that breakout season that we've wanted, let's say he logs over 1,000 yards and has 12 TDs, certainly within the realm of reasonable possibility.  What will that do to his contract value in a contract year?  He'll command much bigger bucks.  Would we pay it?  

 

 

 

 

[T master]

WOW !!!! 

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

FTR I've never taken the position that he's not a solid #2.  I think he's fine in that role.  

 

To me however, given the lattitude that's been given to Oliver for playing injured, why doesn't Davis get the same lattitude for playing with a nagging ankle injury for most of the season?  Allen got it for his elbow too.  

 

All of Davis' 3rd-down catches went for 1st-Downs.  He tied for 15th in the league in receiving TDs.  He was open on many a play where Allen threw to Diggs instead, with Diggs even dropping some of those catches or with Davis being more wide open and often on single, not double coverage (or more) like Diggs was.  He easily could have had 900 or 1,000 yards receiving and ranked in the top-10 for TDs.  

 

Here's the kicker, the team, meaning McBeane, are more apologetic about him than they are about Oliver.  Yet people here are all ready to toss Davis overboard but are elated with Oliver's extension.  Why?  I mean if the "Beane & McD know better what they're doing than we do," why the difference in sentiments?  

 

And let's suppose that Davis has that breakout season that we've wanted, let's say he logs over 1,000 yards and has 12 TDs, certainly within the realm of reasonable possibility.  What will that do to his contract value in a contract year?  He'll command much bigger bucks.  Would we pay it?  

 

 

 

 

I understand you rate Davis higher, that is my view. You're not alone, but I just disagree. I think if he has a superlative year Davis ends up on another team paying him big bucks. If he is inconsistent, he might be back on a team friendly contract. Fans notice key drops. They don't notice the trenches unless someone is just awful like Saffold and even then, it's not the same. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

17 minutes ago, Dan said:

And therein lies the issue I think most people have.   He was drafted at #9. If he was the exact same player, from day 1, and drafted in the 2nd round people would be more than happy today.  
 

Draft position is irrelevant, IMO, if the the guy is starting from his rookie season on. He was a good pick then, and a good player now.  

I see him as distinctly average because, as I said, he's not a finisher.all his "highlights" are "disruptions" not sacks 

[Herc11]

Another way to look at it. Had he put up the type of numbers most of us expect out of a top 10 pick, would we have been able to afford him? At least with this extension, if he does break out, he's locked up at a discount.