Ed Oliver big extension

[JerseyBills]

49 minutes ago, syhuang said:

According to this board, that doesn’t mean anything if nothing shows up on his stat sheet. And for stat sheet, only traditional stats count. Any advanced stats are just made up by someone has nothing to do. 😎

🤣🤣

He really looked good. And Jones is probably the best DT he played with, now with Ford coming in hopefully he erupts .

His potential and talent are Sky high. I still remember his nfl comparison was Aaron Donald

[FLFan]

17 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I as well.  That's why I don't do it.  I much prefer an intelligent back-n-forth even in disagreement.  

 

Almost no one is going to ever agree with anyone else here all the time.  I align with several posters, but that doesn't mean we agree on everything.  

 

Some people simply have emotional trouble with opinions that aren't in their team view.  Who knows, perhaps they're young, or perhaps they have bad things going on at home or something, you never know.  I would think that trying to get along here would help though.   

 

Ahh well, that's the way forums are.  LOL  

 

 

 

SMH ... 

I feel sorry for you.  

 

Not sure what I did to you personally, I dont' think anything.  Have a great evening.  

 

 

 

 

I see you are now resorting to claiming that posters who do not agree with you just can’t appreciate your intellect. Too emotional.  Just save it.  That argument does not wash, ever, especially for you.

 

For what it’s worth, Simon has more credibility around here than you will ever have.  You should pick a fight with someone in your weight class.  Welcome to ignore.  

 

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

Everyone okay?

 

Just wait 6 months.   

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, bills6969 said:

Only 45m is guaranteed, so must be a lot is incentive based

 

 

Supposedly, the $45MM includes the already committed $10MM that was a part of his rookie deal.  

 

Additionally, we forget that McDermott is more likely to call stunts and blitzes as compared to Frazier.  If the is is true, the calling will suit Oliver’s athleticism better.

 

Somehow I think we will see a more productive Oliver this season. 

[PBF81]

29 minutes ago, FLFan said:

I see you are now resorting to claiming that posters who do not agree with you just can’t appreciate your intellect. Too emotional.  Just save it.  That argument does not wash, ever, especially for you.

 

For what it’s worth, Simon has more credibility around here than you will ever have.  You should pick a fight with someone in your weight class.  Welcome to ignore.  

 

 

"around here" is the operative term there.   I also don't see anything about me projecting my intellect, I deliberately attempt to phrase things so as not to do things like that.  If I failed somewhere else then it's my error.  I don't see how I did that in what you referenced.  

 

I'd be happy to go toe-to-toe with Simon on a neutral playing field.  Any day any time.  And please, absolutely no disrespect intended, nothing but the fullest respect there, for real.  

 

Ingore, yes please.  Thank you.     I'm not a big fan of exchanges that get emotional and are driven by that.  I don't ignore anyone, I'm a big advocate of the 1st Amendment.  I don't respond to a few posters, but I don't ignore them.  

 

Otherwise, did you see what he said to me?  Had I said that, or any number of other posters,  I'd have been banned for a day or two.  Did I complain?  No.  I was half-joking with the above and figured he may have been having a rough evening like many do.  Who knows what's going on in peoples' lives when they come here as a refuge.  

 

As to the first part of what you quoted, that was to another poster with whom I was having a decent conversation.  

 

As to the rest, I've backed up everything I've said with data.  The fact that it may not be popular across the board is a different matter.  

 

If Simon's interested in debating this team, I'm game.  He can let me know.  I'll set up a neutral forum for it and we can exchange our thoughts there in an organized and rational fashion after we each have time to respond to the other.  That's the approach that I prefer. 

 

Just have him let me know.  We can begin on this topic this week.  I think it'd be a great point-counterpoint exchange if we do it in good nature.  We could draw many views from outside of here.  

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by PBF81

[LABILLBACKER]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Supposedly, the $45MM includes the already committed $10MM that was a part of his rookie deal.  

 

Additionally, we forget that McDermott is more likely to call stunts and blitzes as compared to Frazier.  If the is is true, the calling will suit Oliver’s athleticism better.

 

Somehow I think we will see a more productive Oliver this season. 

If Sean does call more stunts and blitzes then in theory this should improve Ed's performance.  And if that was the collective reasoning for extending him then I'm all for it. But if Daquan or Poona get hurt, it comes crashing down. 

[Heitz]

Parrino and Talbot have a good, measured take on the extension, fwiw:  

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I mean he's a very good LB. I just think for this specific D he is very replaceable and watching a random game, it shows his instincts are terrible 

 

 

It really doesn't. The idea doesn't make sense.

 

If his instincts were so terrible, Edmunds wouldn't have gotten the contract he got. He just wouldn't have. LBs with terrible instincts aren't good. He was really good last year, probably partly because he just improved and partly because Da'Quan Jones is the kind of DT they needed in front of him and they haven't had that kind of a guy there since the first two years of Lotulelei's stay here.

 

Beane told us why Edmunds is gone. They really wanted him back but couldn't pay him that and maintain a reasonable salary cap situation that will be sustainable long term.

[Logic]

This has probably already been said a time or two in the past 33 pages -- I haven't read all of them.

This extension is a calculated gamble. It seems clear to me that Beane saw the recent deals that DTs were getting, knew that Quinnen Williams and other youngsters would likely be getting massive extensions any day now, and decided to try to lock Oliver in before he got any more expensive.

They seem to be betting that between his having Jones and Ford -- two very solid 1Ts -- next to him to allow him to play 3T full time, his hopefully remaining healthy (I know, I know), his level of play still ascending (he's just 25), and perhaps a change in his usage with McDermott as defensive play caller, that his best days are ahead of him.

If they're right, this deal will very quickly look like a big bargain. If they're wrong, they've probably overpaid. 

As always, the devil will be in the details. Specifically, in how easy or not easy this deal would be to get out of in a couple years' time if Ed's play doesn't warrant the pay he's receiving. Until such time as those details are known, I will reserve judgement. At first blush, the extension seems like odd timing. On the other hand, his being just the 17th highest paid DT in the league doesn't seem too far out of whack. Let's see what the specifics are.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Logic

[Gunsgoodtime]

8 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

What is the obsession with Edmunds? One of the least instinctive linebackers I've ever seen man the middle.

 

Letting him walk will prove to be the wiser choice. I think it would have been for letting Oliver walk, too

Where in my post did you feel I'm obsessed with Edmunds?  I just would rather had him over Oliver, and I think Oliver is garbage.  Some of you really blow things out of proportion to fit your narrative 

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Gun to my head I’m taking the average DT

over Edmunds.

A bit over reaction?  Do better bro

[Maine-iac]

17 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If Sean does call more stunts and blitzes then in theory this should improve Ed's performance.  And if that was the collective reasoning for extending him then I'm all for it. But if Daquan or Poona get hurt, it comes crashing down. 

I think Phillips also can still play but as we saw last year injuries can play a part.  Everyone was injured last year and if that happened again it would be hard to imagine an outcome much different but I think everyone is hoping we have less injuries than last year.  If Miller and Groot are healthy I think we can still pass rush and if Oliver and Jones or Phillips are healthy we can still play alright in the interior.  They've all had injuries but they've also all put together seasons healthy.  If everyone stays healthy I think Oliver can put together a respectable stat line and make Beane look good.  He isn't Donald or JJ Watt (in his prime), he's not going to change a game by himself.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

When do these analytical stats translate to sacks & TFL's?  Over a 4 year span Ed averages 3.6 sacks and 7.5 TFL.  

 

 

When do they translate to destruction, disruption and impact? That's the question. And they have. Just not as consistently as I'm sure we'd all like.

 

There are a few highlight here for instance, where Oliver rushes got QBs off their spot and set up sacks for Rousseau and others.

 

 

 

This has probably been posted here, but worth looking at again.

 

He doesn't look like this enough. But he does it a lot.

 

And he was dealing with an ankle issue for a lot of the year, a tough deal for a guy whose strength is explosion. He took a step back. How much of that was due to the ankle? Seems like the Bills may have thought a lot of it was.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, akcash said:

I think its possible Ed could get more tweener reps at DE against run heavy teams on early downs. 

I've thought about this and I like the thought.  Go 3-4 with Jones at NT and Oliver and Groot at ends with Miller your rush LB?  While Frazier was here the defensive formations were seemingly set in stone.  Lots of adjustments and post snap movement but little change to the formations.

[Pabstblueribbon]

I'm just happy for future me. 

 

There I would be, watching the next draft unfold.

 

Are we going to move up for the best shot to secure our next Diggs?

 

Or will we just stay where we are and pick the Ed Oliver replacement? 

 

..and we all know what that means. 

 

They would probably trade up for a cb lol

[Mat68]

17 hours ago, bearstobills said:

I appreciate this take, but you conveniently left off the disparity in their total tackles.  It's massive.  I wish Ed was Kyle.  Kyle was special.  I have been defending the Ed signing, but if there is a Kylesque player in the draft next year...please jump on him!!

True but tackle stats are a team provided stat.  Also, football now is differant than football than.  Teams dont run as much as they did than. Sacks, forced fumbles, tackles for loss are impact plays regardless of era.  

[WideNine]

PFF for what its worth did not even have Oliver ranked in the top 25 in 2022 which did include our current Daquan and departed Horrible Harry who seemed to have a good year with the Vikequeens.

 

Head-scratcher, but he is pretty effective getting into the backfield when paired with the right 1-tech, not sure you pay top-tier dollar for that...

 

Time will tell I guess.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Issue with Oliver is that he isn't a finisher. Great phantom pass rush win rate guy, can't close to save his life 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

23 hours ago, TBBills Fan said:

Everyone okay?

We are.  You're not.

🤔
*
EDIT: After seeing your 'sad' reaction, cheer up!  We're just rattling your cage! 😁

Edited June 5, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Green Lightning]

Why did we do this? 

 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you play 150-300 less snaps than another pass rushing DT it's similar to missing 3-6 games with injury in terms of down-to-down impact.

 

Now if Ed was a wildly productive per-snap player like Javon Hargrave it would be a different story.

 

He's not though..........he's a modest producer......he will get 40 tackles and 3 sacks in the same span that Hargrave will get 60 and 10.

 

It's simple.........for this deal to end up looking decent Ed has to raise his game and become a very different level of player or producer.

 

$30K per snap for his production would be absurd.

Not arguing about this. I’m just speaking about the injury prone-ness issue.