Ed Oliver big extension

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Not sure about this one. They obviously see something in him that's not clear to a lot of us that have watched him every game since he was drafted. He has a couple good games a year and then disappears for huge stretches and he has always been a liability against the run IMO.

 

I have to think there's FAs out there that could be had for much cheaper that have had similar production to Ed. This is a pretty big contract for a career meh player.

 

Expectations will be higher than they've ever been for him this year. 

 

Other than Jones Ed was EASILY our best run defending DT last year and in 2021 before Jones joined he was our best.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Always gonna be a legit question with investment in DL in a rotational system like we have. But when he was healthy in that middle run last year Ed was averaging just a tick of 70%. That is sufficient to pay him IMO. 

 

Well maybe your guesstimation is right that he played a bit more for a few game stretch at one time in his 4 year career..........but he's been pretty consistently at just a tick of 56% for his career.  (I think just a tick of means just a bit less than, correct? )

 

At $30,000 per snap that puts this deal second only to Aaron Donald on a pay for play basis.

 

And that's not including actual production..........which is not good.

 

He will have to be a much better player than he has been for this contract to not look kinda' ridiculous.

 

If I was the agent for Christian Wilkins(David Mulugheta).........the bar has been reset for me at $30K+ per snap.   And CW played 955 of them last year.   

[PrimeTime101]

50 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

You're right, here's the full quote:

 

 “[Oliver] just continue to play the game as much as possible from the neck up. When you have the kind of talent Ed has, you have to understand situations that could mean the difference between separating yourself from the opponent (and saying), ‘I have to able to process very, very quickly so I can win my one-on-one so I can play ahead of the play as opposed to playing with the sequence of that particular play.’

 

“With Ed, from an experience standpoint, we need him to play ahead as opposed to with the tempo of the play so (understanding) situations, certain nuances with certain calls and understanding where he can take advantage based on his position (is important).”

 

That's not a compliment or saying they're satisfied with his play. It's talking about areas he needs to improve. (Read the article the quote is from below, it's not just this board, but also members of the sports media that saw this as calling him out). Clearly they want more out of him. With the amount of pay it does appear they expect they will get it. Let's hope they do, it would be a big boost for the D this year. 🤞🙏

 

https://heavy.com/sports/buffalo-bills/ed-oliver-contract-eric-washington-comments/

 

 

I believe they would want more out of every player or they would not be in the business. My point being is some of the cut up broken apart quotes and takes around here is nuts.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

He was dinged up a bunch this past season and my sense is that you and @Simon are basically right away the injury risk he presents. I also think his pec injury affected his play vs Cincy and late in the season more generally (he was wearing a harness IIRC). Numerically speaking, though, he didn’t miss a game until the 2022 season and still managed to play 13 out of 17. He has played in all 8 playoff games too. He’s played in 70 out of 74 possible games including the postseason. Just about all players have spells of missing a few games here and there over a four-year period, especially linemen. So it’s not as if he’s missing time at a high rate. Indeed, it’s a pretty low rate, relatively speaking. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OlivEd00.htm

 

Anyway, factoring in how often players get hurt in the NFL, his numbers so far don’t suggest he’s too much of an injury risk. But maybe things have been building up and that’ll change. Hope not.

 

 

If you play 150-300 less snaps than another pass rushing DT it's similar to missing 3-6 games with injury in terms of down-to-down impact.

 

Now if Ed was a wildly productive per-snap player like Javon Hargrave it would be a different story.

 

He's not though..........he's a modest producer......he will get 40 tackles and 3 sacks in the same span that Hargrave will get 60 and 10.

 

It's simple.........for this deal to end up looking decent Ed has to raise his game and become a very different level of player or producer.

 

$30K per snap for his production would be absurd.

[JerseyBills]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

Damn that's very impressive 

I'm excited about the Ford pickup alot. Jones and Von were dearly missed vs Cincy

[Billz4ever]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Other than Jones Ed was EASILY our best run defending DT last year and in 2021 before Jones joined he was our best.

Not exactly a glowing endorsement of Ed. The others were bad too.  Without Jones in the lineup, this entire D-line was pretty bad against the run and got exposed by teams like Miami.  We'd get trucked by backs like Mostert who only had one other 100-yard game all year.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, wppete said:

What a stud! Worth every penny. He is a monster. 
 

 

That's really impressive.  He gets the qb off their spot alot and some of those tackles on the rb are ferocious 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you play 150-300 less snaps than another pass rushing DT it's similar to missing 3-6 games with injury in terms of down-to-down impact.

 

Now if Ed was a wildly productive per-snap player like Javon Hargrave it would be a different story.

 

He's not though..........he's a modest producer......he will get 40 tackles and 3 sacks in the same span that Hargrave will get 60 and 10.

 

It's simple.........for this deal to end up looking decent Ed has to raise his game and become a very different level of player or producer.

 

$30K per snap for his production would be absurd.

 

He will have to up his bare production numbers. I agree. But there are lots of reasons to believe he will be able to do that because the underlying analytics - his pass rush win rate, his run stop win rate, his double team defeat rate are good. I think he is and has been a better player than the bare production numbers would lead you to believe. If that doesn't change during this deal, then it will have been an overpay. But if it does the Bills could well have a bargain.

[syhuang]

Just now, JerseyBills said:

That's really impressive.  He gets the qb off their spot alot and some of those tackles on the rb are ferocious 

According to this board, that doesn’t mean anything if nothing shows up on his stat sheet. And for stat sheet, only traditional stats count. Any advanced stats are just made up by someone has nothing to do. 😎

[Fixxxer]

Love it, they guy si an animal. Good for him and the Bills.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Fixxxer

[HerdMentality]

With the salary cap increasing, the 15th highest paid DT becomes the 21st highest next and the 29th highest the year after that, etc. The relative value of this contract improves with time, to the point that the non-guaranteed money in years 4 and 5 might actually be extra value.

[bills6969]

Only 45m is guaranteed, so must be a lot is incentive based

[Maine-iac]

Oliver is better with Jones beside him.  Oliver actually kind of reminds me of Kyle in that he gets decent penetration and is disruptive but not necessarily a wall.  Kyle was better with Dareus beside him.  Both are good on their own but but when Dareus left the run defense went with him and Jones the same thing.  Signing someone with Oliver's ability always costs more than signing a run stuffer.  We paid for Star and then Jones but not what you'd pay for a pass rushing DT which is what we are hoping Oliver can be (I'm assuming).  If the pieces stay healthy having Groot, Miller, Jones, and Oliver is really good on paper.  When injures start happening is when things break down.

[akcash]

I think its possible Ed could get more tweener reps at DE against run heavy teams on early downs. 

[brianthomas]

Cant help but think: this is how teams SB windows close sooner than they should.

Beanes choice of extensions & the timing & amount for certain players seems to me at least to be a net negative.

I still dont know why we extended Dawson Knox when we didnt have to & the same with Ed. What are we even paying Ed for? To guarantee we at least have a body?

Its so stupid, everyone else here has covered it. Best hope i had for Ed this year was him being hungry for that next contract lol. But lets just pay top 11 money to a guy whose been a disappointment so far? Superbowl bound LETS GO!

What do i know tho? Ed probably looks like a terror in shorts, showing off that speed that made Beane draft him so high in the 1st place. But can he do it in pads? haha

[LABILLBACKER]

10 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Oliver is better with Jones beside him.  Oliver actually kind of reminds me of Kyle in that he gets decent penetration and is disruptive but not necessarily a wall.  Kyle was better with Dareus beside him.  Both are good on their own but but when Dareus left the run defense went with him and Jones the same thing.  Signing someone with Oliver's ability always costs more than signing a run stuffer.  We paid for Star and then Jones but not what you'd pay for a pass rushing DT which is what we are hoping Oliver can be (I'm assuming).  If the pieces stay healthy having Groot, Miller, Jones, and Oliver is really good on paper.  When injures start happening is when things break down.

Yes, if Jones & Ford stay relatively healthy it will allow Ed to continue his serviceable role. Ed's numbers do not jump out and scream top 10 DT.  And yes if you look at a future formulatic version of this contract you can rationalize it's 14-16th ranked.  But what happens if Poona or Daquan get hurt?  Or God forbid Ed gets a substantial injury?  I've watched our defense let us down during the SB run and even in the last 4 playoff exits. I'd rather put any residual money toward supporting Josh. 

[appoo]

Ed is a borderline elite 3T. Love that they’re getting him for this price. If you’re gonna pick between him and Edmunds you pick Oliver pretty much every time 

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

18 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

 What are we even paying Ed for? To guarantee we at least have a body?

Its so stupid, everyone else here has covered it.

I am absolutely amazed that anyone can watch Ed on the field and think he is just a body.  He is very skilled, and has flashed dominant abilities since his rookie season.  His floor is an above average DT (which matches what Beane paid him) and his ceiling is much higher, if he can stay healthy, and McDermott can find ways to maximize his abilities, which I believe he can.  
 

I am very excited to see him without all of the double teams, next to Jones and Ford.  

[LABILLBACKER]

7 minutes ago, appoo said:

Ed is a borderline elite 3T. Love that they’re getting him for this price. If you’re gonna pick between him and Edmunds you pick Oliver pretty much every time 

 

When do these analytical stats translate to sacks & TFL's?  Over a 4 year span Ed averages 3.6 sacks and 7.5 TFL.  

[TBBills Fan]

Everyone okay?