Ed Oliver big extension

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said:

Players not producing in a Frazier defense doesn’t mean they can’t produce.  I would blame scheme first then player second.  
 

I have to believe McBeane sees things we don’t for this $.  

I said this earlier.  McD was 100% in on this decision and obviously feels Ed will have a huge impact in this D. I think he just needs the right partner next to him , I love Ford pickup and Jones was 🔥 last year but they clearly have a plan for him going forward to produce 

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

When Ed was healthy last year he was dominant - particularly that stretch un the middle of the season. He got hurt at the start of the year and again at the end of the year and it limited his impact. But when he is healthy and firing he is one of the Bills best defensive players even if he doesn't have the gaudy numbers to prove it to the boxscore scouts.

 

What you are getting is a big discount from the top of the market guys for a guy who talent wise is in that conversation. I get it he doesn't have the pure production numbers to back that up, but he also leads the league the last two years in sacks called back by penalty... I still think the production isn't a fair reflection of the player when he is on. And the last two seasons he has been consistent when healthy. He got hurt twice in 2022 but hopefully that is now behind him.

as badol points out, how do you feel about the snap count comparison to those guys

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

13 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Say what?

Is this a shot at Duke Williams or something.  I'm lost right now 

Not a shot, just another page in the (entirely fabricated) career saga of Duke Williams.  After his leaving the Bills and signing on with the Saskatchewan Roughriders, a few of us here created an 'alternate history' of his exploits. 😁

Edited June 4, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Bill from NYC]

26 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

great point on the old defense.   

but "ole stubby" Ed   ain't growin longer arms and he aint gettin any taller or heavier anytime soon

OK but what about the "process?"  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

So the Bills could clear $7 million or so in cap space with this extension. I’m guessing they use it on another signing.

[Rico]

Congrats Ed!

[BuffaloBillyG]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So the Bills could clear $7 million or so in cap space with this extension. I’m guessing they use it on another signing.

I would expect that if they do sign someone it will not be for very much money still. 

 

Beane generally likes to have $4-5M to get the season. Maybe they keep a bit extra stashed to the side for a small trade deadline add. I would estimate that is they sign a guy it would still be in that $2M range at most, but time will tell.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, Manther said:

There goes our comp pick!

Not really.  Automatically reverts to the third place team from your division, based upon the previous year's final standings.

🤔🤨

[Rico]

Better Ed than Tre White.

[BillsFan2313]

55 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

You can 'sweet talk' as much as you want.  Duke is quite happy at Canadian Tire now, Southland Mall store.  District manager position on the horizon! 

 

3rd rd pick vs undrafted free agent. Yep, same thing. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Where did you see this?

 

33 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I would expect that if they do sign someone it will not be for very much money still. 

 

Beane generally likes to have $4-5M to get the season. Maybe they keep a bit extra stashed to the side for a small trade deadline add. I would estimate that is they sign a guy it would still be in that $2M range at most, but time will tell.

They can do whatever they want with $8 million in cap space. I think they want to add a pass rusher.

[Behindenemylines]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

I said this earlier.  McD was 100% in on this decision and obviously feels Ed will have a huge impact in this D. I think he just needs the right partner next to him , I love Ford pickup and Jones was 🔥 last year but they clearly have a plan for him going forward to produce 

Agreed.  I think it’s hard to maintain a killer instinct when you’re being asked to not play “offensive “ Defensive football and instead bend more attack less

[SCBills]

51 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I would expect that if they do sign someone it will not be for very much money still. 

 

Beane generally likes to have $4-5M to get the season. Maybe they keep a bit extra stashed to the side for a small trade deadline add. I would estimate that is they sign a guy it would still be in that $2M range at most, but time will tell.

Yea, this is where I’m at too. 
 

We may have a small set amount for whichever pass rusher is eventually willing to take it, but I think the cap space freed up by this move may just be to give us the operating $$$ we want for the upcoming season. 
 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by SCBills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Oh I read this as they cleared $8 mil in space… they didn’t actually do that at least nothing is reported that they have. 

Right. They can structure it many ways. But this example shows they can save $7.7 million if they structure it like that.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

as badol points out, how do you feel about the snap count comparison to those guys

 

Always gonna be a legit question with investment in DL in a rotational system like we have. But when he was healthy in that middle run last year Ed was averaging just a tick of 70%. That is sufficient to pay him IMO. 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Always gonna be a legit question with investment in DL in a rotational system like we have. But when he was healthy in that middle run last year Ed was averaging just a tick of 70%. That is sufficient to pay him IMO. 

I also think Bean is figuring that D linemen will be hit with a huge inflationary spike over the next couple of years.  A player with exactly the same production as Oliver in 2 years could be earning 25 million per year.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah but Ed Oliver is hurt A LOT.

 

A LOT A LOT.

 

This despite being a heavily rotated DT who is playing just 570 snaps per year compared to say......Jeffery Simmons......who is being asked to play 870 snaps per year.

 

Simmons projects to earn about $27,000 per snap on his 4 year $94M deal.........Ed Oliver at $17M projects to $30,000 per snap.

 

And of course when Simmons is playing hurt he's still very impactful because he's a full sized DT while Ed is greatly diminished due to his lack of size/length.

 

So on paper it's a bad deal.   They still gotta' fill an extra 150-300 snaps that teams with other highly paid DT's do not expect to have to.  

 

But hopefully Ed learns how to take care of himself better and play smarter.    

He was dinged up a bunch this past season and my sense is that you and @Simon are basically right away the injury risk he presents. I also think his pec injury affected his play vs Cincy and late in the season more generally (he was wearing a harness IIRC). Numerically speaking, though, he didn’t miss a game until the 2022 season and still managed to play 13 out of 17. He has played in all 8 playoff games too. He’s played in 70 out of 74 possible games including the postseason. Just about all players have spells of missing a few games here and there over a four-year period, especially linemen. So it’s not as if he’s missing time at a high rate. Indeed, it’s a pretty low rate, relatively speaking. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OlivEd00.htm

 

Anyway, factoring in how often players get hurt in the NFL, his numbers so far don’t suggest he’s too much of an injury risk. But maybe things have been building up and that’ll change. Hope not.

Edited June 4, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I don’t know if I have ever been less moved by a name extension. I’m not really happy or mad. The guy just isn’t that good honestly. It’s not like her sucks or anything he’s just sort of there. I could take him or leave him but hopefully this gets him to be a little more consistent. I don’t know, people will tell you the guys excellent but then you go a month where you forget he’s on the team. Or at least I do.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I don’t know if I have ever been less moved by a name extension. I’m not really happy or mad. The guy just isn’t that good honestly. It’s not like her sucks or anything he’s just sort of there. I could take him or leave him but hopefully this gets him to be a little more consistent. I don’t know, people will tell you the guys excellent but then you go a month where you forget he’s on the team. Or at least I do.

Statistics don't work particularly well for football in general, compared to MLB at least.  It seems like teams should have some concept analogous to WAR (wins against replacement).  It seems to me, that DT has a pretty small impact among all players.  Oliver is going to be better than some guy get $4 million a season.  The tougher question is that difference worth 13 million, or can that 13 million have a bigger impact at a different position. 

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

His agent knowing what Roquan Smith got paid and wanting to test the market.

 

Teams don't compete with agents.

 

Edmunds agent didn't know what Smith "got paid" until the rest of us did--in mid January of this year (which isn't last year).

 

Where was the talk that Edmunds wanted to "test the market" during last season, when the Bills picked up his 5th year option instead of re-signing him/locking him up?  There's this:

 

 

 

"I'm gonna let the process take shape," Edmunds told FOX Sports last week in Phoenix at an event for his agency, Athletes First. "You know what I mean? Like, you know, they've been good to me. So I definitely say thank you to the Bills for everything that they've done for me these last five years. But like I said, man, I'm just right now — I'm in the backseat."

 

That was in February....of 2023 (not last year).