Ed Oliver big extension

[GunnerBill]

  On 6/4/2023 at 7:52 PM, PBF81 said:

 

 

Again, it's a high-risk, decent (but not likely high reward) signing.  The odds of Oliver turning into a top-10 DT are not great.  

 

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I think they are pretty good. 

[stevestojan]

I am normally squarely in the “Beane can do no wrong” camp, but I’m really struggling to understand this one. 
 

Honestly, I’d be closer to chalking Ed up as a bust than considering this deal. What stat, what games, what ANYTHING, made this the right move? Did we really just do this because he POTENTIALLY will have an excellent year and we MIGHT have had to pay more if so? 
 

insane. 

[PBF81]

  On 6/4/2023 at 7:56 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

I am sticking to my guns on this. over the next year his top 15 pay will look like top 25 pay do to new contracts. Trying to get better valued player when we are not sure what Olivers ceiling is, I disagree to. We need one healthy year to evaluate Oliver (if that even happens.. my biggest concern) to seek his full potential. To soon... to crystal ball like for me to say we could of done better with less money in the future. 

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Well, OK, but fwiw you skirted most of my points.  

 

I don't care about contract value, I along with many other fans actually care about improving the team.  Unless Oliver improves and stays injury-free that's not going to happen, even if he were getting paid less, or more for that matter more.  

 

Dollars DNE performance.  A lot of people seem to be confusing the two.  

 

We could technically have the best "bargain team" in the league from a contract status and be entirely non-competitive.   

 

Again, we need improvements, not bargains.  

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by PBF81

[OldTimer1960]

  On 6/3/2023 at 8:54 PM, Dave_Bills said:

Don’t know the numbers but this looks like a gamble by Beane. I thought 2023 would be his last year as a Bill.

 

Need more production with that kind of money.

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What is your definition of production?  I think Oliver was a better investment than Edmunds would have been and I liked Edmunds.

 

I am not defending the contract as I don’t pay that much attention because positional value changes quickly, but I think Oliver has been disruptive on several occasions.  

[PBF81]

  On 6/4/2023 at 7:56 PM, GunnerBill said:

I think they are pretty good. 

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We'll find out, likely this season.  

 

Let's suppose it doesn't occur though, let's suppose he continues on in his inconsistent ways with low-end playoff performances and continues to get injured.  

 

Will you then still maintain the same position?  

 

 

[Bob Jones]

  On 6/4/2023 at 6:19 PM, Green Lightning said:

Why did we do this? 

 

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Terry Pegula likes to spend money like a drunken sailor on shore leave in the Phillipines...

[Radar]

Got an eye roll for saying Kevin Adams is a better GM. This guy is a cap disaster.

[PBF81]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:06 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

What is your definition of production?  I think Oliver was a better investment than Edmunds would have been and I liked Edmunds.

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That's a great question.  To answer it we have to look at what the team looks like, and how it likely plays, without those players, right?.  

 

Would we be better this season w/o Oliver and with Ford in his spot, but Edmunds at ILB?  

 

Or will we be better with Oliver in there as it is and with who knows what the LB unit will look like now?  

 

There's a lot of subjectivity and speculation there, including how good this Williams rookie really is, but where do you see the biggest dropoff in the overall play of the defense given those two scenarios?  

 

BTW, here are PFF's preseason LB rankings.  Edmunds makes the top-10.  https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-linebacker-rankings-2023-nfl-season

 

Being only 24 last season, if you ask me, Edmunds is going to have a phenominal season this year.  If that plays out, it will leave a whole lot of people second-guessing.   

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by PBF81

[dollars 2 donuts]

  On 6/4/2023 at 7:56 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I think they are pretty good. 

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GB, respectfully I think there is a greater chance of a kaleidoscope of butterflies coming along and flying me to Planet Sex in the Andromeda galaxy than there is of him being a top 10 DT.

 

I’m not saying it is impossible, especially if the butterflies are Monarchs and have some moxy, but still.

 

I’m not only hoping I am wrong, I am praying for it.

 

Go Bills.

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Rockinon]

I see a lot of "We could have had Oliver playing out of his mind in a contract year and now we're getting more meh", haha. There are other things that motivate pro athletes besides just money. Like, I don't know, winning a championship. Oliver will be fine, IMHO. He's what 25yrs old? Still a baby and still getting better. People are really overdoing it with the negativity.

[GoBills808]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:30 PM, Rockinon said:

I see a lot of "We could have had Oliver playing out of his mind in a contract year and now we're getting more meh", haha. There are other things that motivate pro athletes besides just money. Like, I don't know, winning a championship. Oliver will be fine, IMHO. He's what 25yrs old? Still a baby and still getting better. People are really overdoing it with the negativity.

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He literally tweeted this tho

 

[Doc Brown]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:34 PM, GoBills808 said:

He literally tweeted this tho

 

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No he didn't.

[GoBills808]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:36 PM, Doc Brown said:

No he didn't.

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Ok instagrammed it 

[Dr. Who]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:22 PM, PBF81 said:

 

That's a great question.  To answer it we have to look at what the team looks like, and how it likely plays, without those players, right?.  

 

Would we be better this season w/o Oliver and with Ford in his spot, but Edmunds at ILB?  

 

Or will we be better with Oliver in there as it is and with who knows what the LB unit will look like now?  

 

There's a lot of subjectivity and speculation there, including how good this Williams rookie really is, but where do you see the biggest dropoff in play given those two scenarios?  

 

 

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I was not an Edmunds' hater. We were better when he was in the lineup, even though he lacked instincts and seemed to guess wrong and chase a lot. Nonetheless, I'd like to see how we do with a lb that has instincts, which Dorian Williams appears to possess. In general, I think DT is a more valuable position, and I am cautiously optimistic that Oliver can still improve and make plays more consistently. As to your rhetorical question, it's evident McD and OBD think keeping Oliver is the right play. You keep asking what if Oliver doesn't improve or is beset by nagging injuries? But of course, that is begging the question. Naturally, if that happens it is not a good signing, but those who think the signing worthwhile do not presume that scenario, nor are they rationally compelled to do so. In the end, we'll all have to wait and see. I think it's rather amusing that your default view of Oliver is similar to my default view of Gabe Davis (granted, not a first round pick, but presumably an important factor on his side of the ball), so base line opinions determine how one reacts to these kind of developments.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Dr. Who

[Doc Brown]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:40 PM, GoBills808 said:

Ok instagrammed it 

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Thanks.  LOL.  His instagram posts tells me there was some frustration in him not getting the money he thought he should when they started negotiations.

[JerseyBills]

  On 6/4/2023 at 5:34 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It really doesn't. The idea doesn't make sense.

 

If his instincts were so terrible, Edmunds wouldn't have gotten the contract he got. He just wouldn't have. LBs with terrible instincts aren't good. He was really good last year, probably partly because he just improved and partly because Da'Quan Jones is the kind of DT they needed in front of him and they haven't had that kind of a guy there since the first two years of Lotulelei's stay here.

 

Beane told us why Edmunds is gone. They really wanted him back but couldn't pay him that and maintain a reasonable salary cap situation that will be sustainable long term.

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You got a point. Maybe terrible is overreacting but more like average. I mean watching him vs Milano, Edmunds just always seemed hesitant and didn't attack. He's physically gifted but just didn't trust his instincts imo. 

Edited June 4, 2023 by JerseyBills

[Augie]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:36 PM, Doc Brown said:

No he didn't.

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OK, that mighta been me.   

[GunnerBill]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:07 PM, PBF81 said:

 

We'll find out, likely this season.  

 

Let's suppose it doesn't occur though, let's suppose he continues on in his inconsistent ways with low-end playoff performances and continues to get injured.  

 

Will you then still maintain the same position?  

 

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Will I maintain the position that the chances he becomes a top 10 DT are pretty good if he doesn't become a top 10 DT? Err, obviously not.

 

The chances are good based on the fact that his underlying analytics are strong and have been strong. 

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:29 PM, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

GB, respectfully I think there is a greater chance of a kaleidoscope of butterflies coming along and flying me to Planet Sex in the Andromeda galaxy than there is of him being a top 10 DT.

 

I’m not saying it is impossible, especially if the butterflies are Monarchs and have some moxy, but still.

 

I’m not only hoping I am wrong, I am praying for it.

 

Go Bills.

 

 

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Disrespectfully, you are wrong.

[Mat68]

  On 6/4/2023 at 8:05 PM, stevestojan said:

I am normally squarely in the “Beane can do no wrong” camp, but I’m really struggling to understand this one. 
 

Honestly, I’d be closer to chalking Ed up as a bust than considering this deal. What stat, what games, what ANYTHING, made this the right move? Did we really just do this because he POTENTIALLY will have an excellent year and we MIGHT have had to pay more if so? 
 

insane. 

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He isnt a bust.  Multiple players in the first rd are already out of the league.  He is a day 1 starter who has shown good pass rush ability.   That guy is not as easy to find.  I think Buffalo didnt want to go into 24 without a DT under contract. 

[oldmanfan]

He’s a solid DT with flashes of greatness.  Glad we’re keeping him around.