GunnerBill Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 18 hours ago, SCBills said: I cringe whenever people use the Rams as an example. I get the sentiment, but they are such an outlier and not, at all, emblematic of our FO approach. For one, they built around an aging QB who seems to, potentially, be breaking down physically. And two, not only did they hand out big contracts against the cap, they also traded away picks to do so. Therefore, they didn’t have the ability to backfill with cheap rookie contracts. The Jets are taking the Rams QB approach, but they have a ton of talented rookie contract talent so that they aren’t destroyed by his contract. It gets tricky for them, but manageable - especially given this is a 2 year run with Rodgers and then likely a cheaper QB or rookie again. The Dolphins are taking the picks for big contract talent approach .. but aren’t paying a QB yet, so, again it’s manageable. We’re up against the cap, but haven’t been trading away picks and - most importantly - have a QB just entering his prime. And the Rams collapse last year was very attributable to injuries. They ended up with their QB, 1WR, 2WR, starting LT, both starting guards and both starting safeties on season ending IR and that is without the injuries that caused Donald, Fuller and others to miss time. Yes, they were lacking in depth and that is attributable to their roster building decisions but they lacked depth the previous year too and won a Superbowl. The Bills model is definitely NOT to lack depth as evidenced by the fact that despite their own injury woes in 2022 they won 13 games and ended up with the 3rd highest strength of victory among teams with winning records (Cleveland actually had the best strength of victory in the league but ended up under .500). The two models are not the same. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 8 hours ago, billsfan89 said: The Saints start the season 100 million over the cap and somehow get by, in the NFL you can rob Peter to pay Paul for a long time. The Rams aren't the best example. Mainly because they not only went all in short-term cap-wise but also mortgaged their draft picks in acquiring their top-heavy roster. Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey, Stafford, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and others were all acquired with premium draft picks they also made smaller moves to trade away mid-round and late-round picks. It just wasn't the cap that caused the Rams to be in a bad spot. Had the Rams had some cost-controlled talent from those picks they traded away they likely could have had some shot at fielding a better team long term. If by "getting by" you mean a 16-18 record for the past 2 seasons in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL then yes, they get by. The Saints wouldn't even sniff the playoffs with their roster if they played in the AFC. I don't understand why they are considered as a model for cap management. They are constantly rotating out of good players to make the cap and are definitely pushing all their chips in with Derek Carr. I don't expect them to be making a Superbowl run this season. Quote
billsfan89 Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: If by "getting by" you mean a 16-18 record for the past 2 seasons in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL then yes, they get by. The Saints wouldn't even sniff the playoffs with their roster if they played in the AFC. I don't understand why they are considered as a model for cap management. They are constantly rotating out of good players to make the cap and are definitely pushing all their chips in with Derek Carr. I don't expect them to be making a Superbowl run this season. The point about the Saints is that if you really want to rob Peter to pay Paul you pretty much can for a long time. The Saints rarely lose good players due to the cap is mainly the point. They also are able to if they want to go after players in free agency such as Carr. It isn't to say they are ideal but rather that if you are willing to eat the money as an organization you can manipulate the cap in many different ways to get yourself out of cap trouble short term and push things out so to speak. The Bills aren't really tied to too many bad contracts, they let Edumonds walk which will yield a high comp pick and not tie them to a huge contract to a linebacker who while good is not elite. The only contracts that I think could be bad and hard to get out of are the Tre White, Knox and Von Miller deals. In 2024 the Bills can cut Mitch, Poyer, Harty, Bates and Hines for a very little penalty. In addition to those possible savings the Bills can restructure Josh and Diggs in 2024 to save nearly 30 million on the cap. They also can restructure Von for another 12 million in savings if he has a nice bounce back 2023. McGovern, Milano and Knox can also be restructured for small savings if needed. The only other big contracts (In this sense a big contract is a player making more than 5 million) on the roster are Josh, Diggs, Tre, Dawkins, Knox, Von, Milano, McGovern and T.Johnson. Josh, Diggs, Dawkins, Milano, and T.Johnson are all fairly young and should still be key productive pieces in 2024. McGovern is also young and should still be productive in 2024. Knox also might be overpaid but I think he should still be a productive piece of the offense. Tre is also still fairly young and if he has a bounce back 2023 will not be an albatross. Von is the only deal where the Bills may have to "eat" a bad cap number for a season before they can get fully out of it and even then Von may still be a productive piece. Will the cap be an issue at some point? Possibly, but the Bills have an owner willing to pay out the hard cash for bonuses and they don't have too many bad deals on the roster at the moment. If they can get Diggs, Von and Tre to be productive for 2-3 more seasons I think they should be fine. By 2025, they likely will be able to cut bait on almost any and all deals they want to. This isn't as tragic a situation as many make it out to be, but the draft esp the 2024 draft where the Bills will have some extra picks will be key to keeping the roster in contention. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: The point about the Saints is that if you really want to rob Peter to pay Paul you pretty much can for a long time. The Saints rarely lose good players due to the cap is mainly the point. They also are able to if they want to go after players in free agency such as Carr. It isn't to say they are ideal but rather that if you are willing to eat the money as an organization you can manipulate the cap in many different ways to get yourself out of cap trouble short term and push things out so to speak. The Bills aren't really tied to too many bad contracts, they let Edumonds walk which will yield a high comp pick and not tie them to a huge contract to a linebacker who while good is not elite. The only contracts that I think could be bad and hard to get out of are the Tre White, Knox and Von Miller deals. In 2024 the Bills can cut Mitch, Poyer, Harty, Bates and Hines for a very little penalty. In addition to those possible savings the Bills can restructure Josh and Diggs in 2024 to save nearly 30 million on the cap. They also can restructure Von for another 12 million in savings if he has a nice bounce back 2023. McGovern, Milano and Knox can also be restructured for small savings if needed. The only other big contracts (In this sense a big contract is a player making more than 5 million) on the roster are Josh, Diggs, Tre, Dawkins, Knox, Von, Milano, McGovern and T.Johnson. Josh, Diggs, Dawkins, Milano, and T.Johnson are all fairly young and should still be key productive pieces in 2024. McGovern is also young and should still be productive in 2024. Knox also might be overpaid but I think he should still be a productive piece of the offense. Tre is also still fairly young and if he has a bounce back 2023 will not be an albatross. Von is the only deal where the Bills may have to "eat" a bad cap number for a season before they can get fully out of it and even then Von may still be a productive piece. Will the cap be an issue at some point? Possibly, but the Bills have an owner willing to pay out the hard cash for bonuses and they don't have too many bad deals on the roster at the moment. If they can get Diggs, Von and Tre to be productive for 2-3 more seasons I think they should be fine. By 2025, they likely will be able to cut bait on almost any and all deals they want to. This isn't as tragic a situation as many make it out to be, but the draft esp the 2024 draft where the Bills will have some extra picks will be key to keeping the roster in contention. They have recently lost Hendrickson, Rankins, Armstead, Marcus Williams, Mathieu, Onyemata as just some of the big dollar guys. They let a lot of middling players go every year too because they can't pay them. They do all this for a sub .500 record. I'll take Brandon Beane's strategy over the Saints any day. Any GM can get under the cap at any time, that's not the question. Darek Carr is now the savior for the team. I have my doubts that it will work out for a Super Bowl run. That's all that matters. Quote
billsfan89 Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: They have recently lost Hendrickson, Rankins, Armstead, Marcus Williams, Mathieu, Onyemata as just some of the big dollar guys. They let a lot of middling players go every year too because they can't pay them. They do all this for a sub .500 record. I'll take Brandon Beane's strategy over the Saints any day. Any GM can get under the cap at any time, that's not the question. Darek Carr is now the savior for the team. I have my doubts that it will work out for a Super Bowl run. That's all that matters. Beane's strategy from 2021-2023 isn't that far different from the Saints. The Bills have restructured almost every contract they could and made short-term moves to chase a ring like the Von Miller deal. It isn't like the Bills are being all that prudent. My point in bringing up the Saints was that if the Bills want to be contenders and "go for it" year in and year out they can for the most part as long as ownership is willing to pay out bonuses. I do agree that Beane has thus far has been a bit more prudent than other teams in some senses but I can't honestly say the Bills haven't been robbing Peter to pay Paul for a couple of years now. Quote
ColoradoBills Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 1 minute ago, billsfan89 said: Beane's strategy from 2021-2023 isn't that far different from the Saints. The Bills have restructured almost every contract they could and made short-term moves to chase a ring like the Von Miller deal. It isn't like the Bills are being all that prudent. My point in bringing up the Saints was that if the Bills want to be contenders and "go for it" year in and year out they can for the most part as long as ownership is willing to pay out bonuses. I do agree that Beane has thus far has been a bit more prudent than other teams in some senses but I can't honestly say the Bills haven't been robbing Peter to pay Paul for a couple of years now. I enjoy the whole "cap-ology" of football. Beane has used the restructure tool a lot lately. The defining result of how well a GM uses the tool IMO can be seen in how much "dead money" is used to perform its function. In the last 3 years the Saints have had a total of $118M in dead money, Beane has $40M. That is the bottom line of all the "shenanigan's". Not all, but most of the "bad" dead money, comes directly from void years. Beane is looking at $7M (as of now) next season and the Saints are hovering around $55M just in void years. That is dollar for dollar "paying Peter" money that is not used for current roster players. If the day comes when Beane has too much dead money, I will question his planning. In the meantime, I like what I have seen this season. Go Bills! Quote
billsfan89 Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I enjoy the whole "cap-ology" of football. Beane has used the restructure tool a lot lately. The defining result of how well a GM uses the tool IMO can be seen in how much "dead money" is used to perform its function. In the last 3 years the Saints have had a total of $118M in dead money, Beane has $40M. That is the bottom line of all the "shenanigan's". Not all, but most of the "bad" dead money, comes directly from void years. Beane is looking at $7M (as of now) next season and the Saints are hovering around $55M just in void years. That is dollar for dollar "paying Peter" money that is not used for current roster players. If the day comes when Beane has too much dead money, I will question his planning. In the meantime, I like what I have seen this season. Go Bills! As I said previously I think the only bad contracts on the roster are possibly going to be Knox, Von and Tre. All three of which the team can reasonably get out of by 2025. I agree Beane has done a good job not eating a lot of dead money which is a huge positive but each year he restructures deals that becomes more and more a possibility but also a needed evil with a massive QB deal. Looking at the contracts that are larger I see the following scenarios where dead cap may have to be eaten. If Tre never regains his form or anything close to it in 2023 there will be a long hard look at his 2024 contract, the Bills are on the hook for a 16 million dollar cap number in 2024, if they cut Tre they save 6 million on that number. IF Tre is just a shell of himself then they may just eat the 10 million and be done with him and stick to Elam and cheaper players. If Tre is at the very least solid to good they stick it out for one more year and then in 2025 he is a lot easier to cut as the dead cap would only be 4 million on a 16 million dollar deal. Knox's dead cap in 2024 is 20 million so he is staying at a cap cost of 14.4 million in 2024 which is not great although the Bills can restructure him to save a few million but that would push his dead cap higher down the line. The closest the Bills can get out of his deal is 2025, the Bills could eat 7.8 million in dead cap and save about 7.5 million that season. 2026 the Bills have a better out only having to eat 3.9 million on a 15.9 million dollar cap number. Von's deal is the one where Beane is likely going to have to eat a big dead cap number at some point. 2024 the dead cap is huge so Von isn't going anywhere. In 2025 the Bills have a chance to save some money but will eat a dead cap of 15 million if they cut him after 2024, it would save about 8 million on the cap. After 2026 the Bills have a more tenable out but will have to eat 9 million. 2027 the Bills have an easy out in eating on 2.6 million on a 32 million dollar cap figure. Von's deal is interesting as if he has a bounce back in 2023 the Bills can restructure his 2024 deal to take his cap number down from 23 million to around 10 million. But how that would impact his dead cap in 2025-2027 is something I don't know too much about. Ideally, I hope Von has a nice 2023 and the Bills can lower his cap hit in 2024 and get one or two more decent years out of him and then get out without too big of a dead cap hit. But likely I see the Bills just eating a big dead cap number in 2025. 2 Quote
ColoradoBills Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: As I said previously I think the only bad contracts on the roster are possibly going to be Knox, Von and Tre. All three of which the team can reasonably get out of by 2025. I agree Beane has done a good job not eating a lot of dead money which is a huge positive but each year he restructures deals that becomes more and more a possibility but also a needed evil with a massive QB deal. Looking at the contracts that are larger I see the following scenarios where dead cap may have to be eaten. If Tre never regains his form or anything close to it in 2023 there will be a long hard look at his 2024 contract, the Bills are on the hook for a 16 million dollar cap number in 2024, if they cut Tre they save 6 million on that number. IF Tre is just a shell of himself then they may just eat the 10 million and be done with him and stick to Elam and cheaper players. If Tre is at the very least solid to good they stick it out for one more year and then in 2025 he is a lot easier to cut as the dead cap would only be 4 million on a 16 million dollar deal. Knox's dead cap in 2024 is 20 million so he is staying at a cap cost of 14.4 million in 2024 which is not great although the Bills can restructure him to save a few million but that would push his dead cap higher down the line. The closest the Bills can get out of his deal is 2025, the Bills could eat 7.8 million in dead cap and save about 7.5 million that season. 2026 the Bills have a better out only having to eat 3.9 million on a 15.9 million dollar cap number. Von's deal is the one where Beane is likely going to have to eat a big dead cap number at some point. 2024 the dead cap is huge so Von isn't going anywhere. In 2025 the Bills have a chance to save some money but will eat a dead cap of 15 million if they cut him after 2024, it would save about 8 million on the cap. After 2026 the Bills have a more tenable out but will have to eat 9 million. 2027 the Bills have an easy out in eating on 2.6 million on a 32 million dollar cap figure. Von's deal is interesting as if he has a bounce back in 2023 the Bills can restructure his 2024 deal to take his cap number down from 23 million to around 10 million. But how that would impact his dead cap in 2025-2027 is something I don't know too much about. Ideally, I hope Von has a nice 2023 and the Bills can lower his cap hit in 2024 and get one or two more decent years out of him and then get out without too big of a dead cap hit. But likely I see the Bills just eating a big dead cap number in 2025. Agree with a lot of that. The thing about Tre is Beane had zero control of what happened. If his play falls way off Beane has only a couple of choices. Move on with a cut/trade or see if he can fill a Hyde roll. Anyway, no matter what happens, I don't put it on Beane. Von's situation is pretty much exactly how you put it IMO too. Just have to wait and see how it plays out. If Von's play falls off I got to put the miss on Beane. Bad luck sure, but it was a risky move. As for Knox, I know it's the thing now to hate his contract, but I don't see Dawson going anywhere, anytime soon. IMO when Beane drafted his wide-out TE with a 1st it took DHop (or other WR worries) off the table. We probably won't see the fruits of the Kincaid/Knox duo until later in the season, but I like the possibilities. If the front 5 OL can jell those 2 could wreak havoc. As for cap relief next year, Beane has a ton of options to reduce the deficit with moving on from a few of the Morse, Hines, Harty, Neal and I'm going to throw a name out that may get me some grief, a Taron Johnson trade. Low dead cap with a lot of cap space created with all these players. The only other thing I would add is what will Dawkins play be this season? If he is going to stay, next spring is a re-sign. If that doesn't happen they could be looking for a new LT in 2025. 1 Quote
billsfan89 Posted June 5, 2023 Posted June 5, 2023 1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said: Agree with a lot of that. The thing about Tre is Beane had zero control of what happened. If his play falls way off Beane has only a couple of choices. Move on with a cut/trade or see if he can fill a Hyde roll. Anyway, no matter what happens, I don't put it on Beane. Von's situation is pretty much exactly how you put it IMO too. Just have to wait and see how it plays out. If Von's play falls off I got to put the miss on Beane. Bad luck sure, but it was a risky move. As for Knox, I know it's the thing now to hate his contract, but I don't see Dawson going anywhere, anytime soon. IMO when Beane drafted his wide-out TE with a 1st it took DHop (or other WR worries) off the table. We probably won't see the fruits of the Kincaid/Knox duo until later in the season, but I like the possibilities. If the front 5 OL can jell those 2 could wreak havoc. As for cap relief next year, Beane has a ton of options to reduce the deficit with moving on from a few of the Morse, Hines, Harty, Neal and I'm going to throw a name out that may get me some grief, a Taron Johnson trade. Low dead cap with a lot of cap space created with all these players. The only other thing I would add is what will Dawkins play be this season? If he is going to stay, next spring is a re-sign. If that doesn't happen they could be looking for a new LT in 2025. Von was a true chase a title “all in” move. A true mortgage a piece of your future to win now 1 Quote
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