2022 WR class open vs man coverage

[MJS]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Eh, this whole thing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The only thing I take out of this is Garrett Wilson, who was facing number 1 cbs, is going to be a problem. 

Yeah, Shakir was rarely on the field and when he was, he was a huge afterthought for defenses. He probably had the least talented defender on him possible.

 

But, it is a still a good thing and hopefully translates to more success as he gets more opportunities.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

Couldn't tell by the limited amount of reps the coaching staff allowed him to have.

Shakir wasn't the only one who's reps were down.  This team has talent.  Dorsey just has to demand from Josh that he spreads the wealth and doesn't just go to Diggs all the time.

[BillsFan130]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

It truly is a mystery
 

Why did they not give him more burn instead of bringing back and old Cole Beasley?

To a certain degree I think Josh had a say in getting Bease/Brown back.

 

I think he wanted a veteran receiver he can trust 

Edited June 2, 2023 by BillsFan130

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Yeah, Shakir was rarely on the field and when he was, he was a huge afterthought for defenses. He probably had the least talented defender on him possible.

 

But, it is a still a good thing and hopefully translates to more success as he gets more opportunities.

For me, it's a little complicated.  Of course I want Shakir to improve but I want to see Kincaid involved more.  I view Shakir and Kincaid as in a slight competition for snaps and i want Kincaid to win.

 

In my mind the offense will go to another level if Kincaid can hit the potential we talk about.  The quicker we tap into that the better.  Unfortunately snaps and playing time to Shakir may come at the expense of Kincaid.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

For me, it's a little complicated.  Of course I want Shakir to improve but I want to see Kincaid involved more.  I view Shakir and Kincaid as in a slight competition for snaps and i want Kincaid to win.

 

In my mind the offense will go to another level if Kincaid can hit the potential we talk about.  The quicker we tap into that the better.  Unfortunately snaps and playing time to Shakir may come at the expense of Kincaid.

 

I like that we have a variety of weapons at our disposal.  Between the 20s last year buffalo mostly moved the ball pretty well, even towards the end of the year when the offense wasn't executing as well.  Now i look at it like we have a lot of ways to attack a team in the red zone. 

 

If the opponent is lacking juice in the middle we can hammer them with harris or murray.  Play action looks out of these run attacks in the red zone can occaisionally create wide open targets, Allen walk in opportunities, or at least mismatches to exploit. You can also use harty and hines on the field at the same time to add a lot of speed and quickness in the run/pass game.  Cook can be an effective target on swing targets to create an outside 1 on 1.  They aren't WRs but using a lineup with cook and hines in spread formations could create some unique matchups.  Then you have the standards: Knox is a big target.  Kincaid is a big target.  1 on 1 with Diggs is always a challenge with his sudden movement.  

[PrimeTime101]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Shakir looking good in limited reps. It’ll be interesting to see how he does with more opportunities this season. 

is there a link to this? I would love to read the article. 

[Einstein's Dog]

17 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I like that we have a variety of weapons at our disposal.  Between the 20s last year buffalo mostly moved the ball pretty well, even towards the end of the year when the offense wasn't executing as well.  Now i look at it like we have a lot of ways to attack a team in the red zone. 

 

If the opponent is lacking juice in the middle we can hammer them with harris or murray.  Play action looks out of these run attacks in the red zone can occaisionally create wide open targets, Allen walk in opportunities, or at least mismatches to exploit. You can also use harty and hines on the field at the same time to add a lot of speed and quickness in the run/pass game.  Cook can be an effective target on swing targets to create an outside 1 on 1.  They aren't WRs but using a lineup with cook and hines in spread formations could create some unique matchups.  Then you have the standards: Knox is a big target.  Kincaid is a big target.  1 on 1 with Diggs is always a challenge with his sudden movement.  

True, there might be a variety of weapons, certainly offensive options.  But my hope is Kincaid takes over the majority of the snaps and for that to happen it seems like Shakir's time will be affected.

 

Shakir may have been open but as others point out, he ran wrong routes, had some drops, and was pathetic at blocking.  If we need to endure some growing pains I would prefer to ride out Kincaid then Shakir.

 

There's some pressure on Dorsey to diversity the offense.  And another part of Dorsey's evaluation might be seen as improving the time to integrate  his offensive weapons (Cook/Shakir/Hines -all slow last year).  Get Kincaid in early!

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Shakir looking good in limited reps. It’ll be interesting to see how he does with more opportunities this season. 

it’s such a small sample… getting separation 2 out of 4 snaps a game as a WR4/WR5 is borderline meaningless in trying to project. 
 

For all we know the snap count issue is him getting open by not being where he is supposed to be when he is supposed to be there. 
 

still hoping for the best, just don’t think this is super valuable data either way 

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Yeah, Shakir was rarely on the field and when he was, he was a huge afterthought for defenses. He probably had the least talented defender on him possible.

 

But, it is a still a good thing and hopefully translates to more success as he gets more opportunities.

but at such a small volume it could be him out of position or off schedule. The defender could be funneling him into hard to reach territory that he should avoid on a few of those, etc… 

 

 

for the guys with major reps it’s actually interesting though.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

is there a link to this? I would love to read the article. 

I checked but can’t find an associated article.

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, Herb Nightly said:

Since I don't think we will add Hopkins or someone like him.. I'm hoping for big things from Shakir. Might be a sleeper?

I chalk this up to it being a good sign. It’s not nearly enough to be certain of his future, but it’s a positive. I’d love to see how he did against zone too. 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

For me, it's a little complicated.  Of course I want Shakir to improve but I want to see Kincaid involved more.  I view Shakir and Kincaid as in a slight competition for snaps and i want Kincaid to win.

 

In my mind the offense will go to another level if Kincaid can hit the potential we talk about.  The quicker we tap into that the better.  Unfortunately snaps and playing time to Shakir may come at the expense of Kincaid.

I will be floored if Kincaid doesn't become the long term solution in the slot. And I think he will absolutely kill it there. I see Shakir sliding in to absorb the WR3 duties once Gabe is gone.  The question remains who plays WR2?

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, wppete said:

Let’s hope Shakir has a breakout season. Would be huge for this offense. 

We need guys like him to break out now that we’re paying a franchise QB
 

Reinforcements for this team are not going to come in free agency they’re going to come in the draft cheap cost control contracts

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I checked but can’t find an associated article.

a ton of fake graphs out there on stuff... got to be careful . Have a good day. 

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I checked but can’t find an associated article.

https://thebuffalofanatics.com/buffalo-bills-players-in-review-2022-khalil-shakir/#:~:text=single man coverage.,him a 48.57% open rate.

[RyanC883]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Shakir wasn't the only one who's reps were down.  This team has talent.  Dorsey just has to demand from Josh that he spreads the wealth and doesn't just go to Diggs all the time.

 

also has to call better plays. 

[BigAl2526]

Now if he can just catch the ball. . .  If memory serves, I believe Shakir was one of several Bills receivers who experienced a fairly high drop rate in 2022.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Shakir looking good in limited reps. It’ll be interesting to see how he does with more opportunities this season. 

 

Shakir played 275 snaps.  That means that 205 of them were probably against zone coverage, since I doubt he was doubled up in man with Diggs and Davis on the field.

 

Since 75% of his snaps were presumably against zone, the question for his long-term prospects would be “how well did he get open there?”

11 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

So of those 34 times he was open, how many times did he get the ball?

 

I know QB1 is beloved and basically untouchable here but since we slag on the WRs constantly it seems fair to ask if they were actually open and the ball was being delivered to the wrong place.

 

 I believe this stat is just measuring whether the receiver has separation at the completion of his route vs. man coverage

 

It’s not assessing:

1) whether he ran the correct route at the correct depth

2) whether he was open at the point where the QB had to make a decision and throw the ball

3) whether there was a better throw available

 

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

13 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Eh, this whole thing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The only thing I take out of this is Garrett Wilson, who was facing number 1 cbs, is going to be a problem. 

Seriously. Watson too. That kid has massive growth potential. Hopefully Wilson is substantially closer to his ceiling. 

13 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Eh, this whole thing needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The only thing I take out of this is Garrett Wilson, who was facing number 1 cbs, is going to be a problem. 

Seriously. Watson too. That kid has massive growth potential. Hopefully Wilson is substantially closer to his ceiling. 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

I believe he ran a few incorrect routes and found himself in the doghouse.  

 

 

Yeah, open in the wrong place isn't much better than not open.

 

Not to mention that you can't tell from that data how things changed from early to late in the season. Might easily have been open at a higher rate later. Or not getting open in practice earlier in the year so getting fewer opportunities, then doing better in practice later as it began to click with him, so he got more opportunities.

 

Someone said it was a mystery? I guess you can say it's a mystery to us, but likely just that he got better as the year went along, a very typical rookie trajectory.

 

 

9 hours ago, NoSaint said:

it’s such a small sample… getting separation 2 out of 4 snaps a game as a WR4/WR5 is borderline meaningless in trying to project. 
 

For all we know the snap count issue is him getting open by not being where he is supposed to be when he is supposed to be there. 
 

still hoping for the best, just don’t think this is super valuable data either way 

but at such a small volume it could be him out of position or off schedule. The defender could be funneling him into hard to reach territory that he should avoid on a few of those, etc… 

 

 

for the guys with major reps it’s actually interesting though.

 

 

That's not his snap count, it's his snap count against single man coverage. While 70 snaps is a small sample, there's no reason to think it's meaningless, or borderline. Extremely exact as a forecast? No, but it certainly carries some force.

 

He got 275 total snaps. 30% of offensive snaps. Not meaningless.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Thurman#1

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, open in the wrong place isn't much better than not open.

 

Not to mention that you can't tell from that data how things changed from early to late in the season. Might easily have been open at a higher rate later. Or not getting open in practice earlier in the year so getting fewer opportunities, then doing better in practice later as it began to click with him, so he got more opportunities.

 

Someone said it was a mystery? I guess you can say it's a mystery to us, but likely just that he got better as the year went along, a very typical rookie trajectory.

 

 

 

 

That's not his snap count, it's his snap count against single man coverage. While 70 snaps is a small sample, there's no reason to think it's meaningless, or borderline. Extremely exact as a forecast? No, but it certainly carries some force.

 

He got 275 total snaps. 30% of offensive snaps. Not meaningless.

yes, I short handed snap count against man coverage to just snap count, but also made a reference to actual snap count - but none of the points materially change. 
 

his SCAMC was such a small volume and in such a minimal role that as stand alone data this is near meaningless to project from. 
 

that he, on a team with WR2 playing poorly while hurt, WR3 on IR, WR4 in the absolute doghouse only got 30% of the snaps is indicative of being about as limited as coaches could possibly make him. Including having a guy come in off the streets at about 80 years old, and known to cause drama, to be used to keep his count down. 
 

whether the coaches mismanaged him can be a topic of discussion but his snap count indicated they didn’t trust him, and his SCAMC data showing he got open does not  have enough volume to dispute that meaningfully