Reasons for optimism, pessimism

[LABILLBACKER]

Reason for optimism 

Josh Allen 

 

Reason for pessimism 

Sean McDermott 

[ganesh]

What I am excited about:

• Josh Allen playing with more focus in the off season
• Cook trending towards a bonafide NFL starter at RB
• Addition to the WR stable -  Kincaid at Slot/TE,  Hartey, Sheffield, Short
• Possible emergence of Shakir 
• Addition of Damien Harris to the RB stable

The offense definitely has the firepower to put on 30+ points every game. 

 

What I am worried about

• who is the signal caller on Defense ?
• Will Tre White come back to be the player he was in 2020-2021?
• Can we generate pass rush (Groot, Epenesa, Basham, Lawson) 
• Will signing of Ford allow us to stop the run better ?
• Will the two safeties come back from their injuries and dominate the way they played in 2021
• Will the coaching staff show up for big games ? 

I hope the Bills put 22 players on the field with specific tasks and don't ask their star players to over-compensate for weakness at their neighboring positions (For example, Matt Milano, Gabe Davis etc).  It is on the coaching staff to get this team to execute and there is no excuses for this staff.  Eric Washington should be in the hot seat for the DL play for the last few years (which has been soft).  

[BigDingus]

Reasons for Optimism:

 

1. O-line is improved. Not sure if I'd say it improved SIGNIFICANTLY, but it's definitely better than last year.

2. Didn't waste another 1st round pick on defense. Gave Allen another weapon in Kincaid.

3. Dorsey's 2nd year as OC. Hopefully he'll have a better grasp on what worked & what didn't, and benefit from last year's experiences

4. Our secondary should be better by default. Safeties are back for another year, hopefully rested & healthy. White hopefully shook off the rust from the ACL recovery, and will be good to go, and Elam/Benford will be in year 2. After only getting a few games with Hyde & Poyer together, hopefully the secondary will look renewed.

 

Reasons for Pessimism:

 

1a. Schedule is tough, with our 3 most difficult games all being on the road (KC/Cincy/Philly). 

1b. We're not the only team getting better, the rest of the AFCE is as well. Jets & Phins played us tough last year, both splitting with the Bills. This year they should be even better, so neither will be an easy out.

2. I know everyone was over Frazier by the end of last season, but I'm not so sure McDermott will be any better/worse. Even as a #1 or #2 ranked defense, this unit can't stop elite offenses anyway, so investing so many resources into that side of the ball kind of feels like wasted effort to an extent. In the end, you have to be able to go toe to toe offensively with Cincy & KC. I'm not sure if McDermott will really change much in that regard, and ultimately it could just look the same.

 

Honorable Mention: This isn't something anyone can control, but I still don't think this team is really built to benefit from our home field "advantage" when playing in the elements. Snow/Ice/Rain tend to look sloppy, turnover heavy, and not confident. Can't worry too much about it, but still never seems like it favors us in any way.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Reasons for Optimism:

 

1. O-line is improved. Not sure if I'd say it improved SIGNIFICANTLY, but it's definitely better than last year.

2. Didn't waste another 1st round pick on defense. Gave Allen another weapon in Kincaid.

3. Dorsey's 2nd year as OC. Hopefully he'll have a better grasp on what worked & what didn't, and benefit from last year's experiences

4. Our secondary should be better by default. Safeties are back for another year, hopefully rested & healthy. White hopefully shook off the rust from the ACL recovery, and will be good to go, and Elam/Benford will be in year 2. After only getting a few games with Hyde & Poyer together, hopefully the secondary will look renewed.

 

Reasons for Pessimism:

 

1a. Schedule is tough, with our 3 most difficult games all being on the road (KC/Cincy/Philly). 

1b. We're not the only team getting better, the rest of the AFCE is as well. Jets & Phins played us tough last year, both splitting with the Bills. This year they should be even better, so neither will be an easy out.

2. I know everyone was over Frazier by the end of last season, but I'm not so sure McDermott will be any better/worse. Even as a #1 or #2 ranked defense, this unit can't stop elite offenses anyway, so investing so many resources into that side of the ball kind of feels like wasted effort to an extent. In the end, you have to be able to go toe to toe offensively with Cincy & KC. I'm not sure if McDermott will really change much in that regard, and ultimately it could just look the same.

 

Honorable Mention: This isn't something anyone can control, but I still don't think this team is really built to benefit from our home field "advantage" when playing in the elements. Snow/Ice/Rain tend to look sloppy, turnover heavy, and not confident. Can't worry too much about it, but still never seems like it favors us in any way.

The home field weather advantage has not been an advantage for 20+ years. Probably only helped when playing LA Raiders and Dolphins in the playoffs during the SB years. 

We are an elite passing offense. Josh doesn't play well in the rain. Does any qb? Cold is not an issue. Its the rain and wind they have had to play in multiple times the last few years. 

Add the fact we get a ton of players from the SEC who never played in the cold. Its no advantage.

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

Reasons for pessimism:

 

Hyde, Miller, Poyer, White all likely have their best seasons in the past. 

 

White's only 28 and was arguably the best in the league.  He should be fine, even if not the best, for several more seasons.  

 

 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

White's only 28 and was arguably the best in the league.  He should be fine, even if not the best, for several more seasons.  

 

 

He was not good last year.  The pre-acl sample set may no longer be relevant.  It seems almost impossible for him to return to best in the league. 

[Rico]

No reason to not be very optimistic about this team in the off-season. It’s not like when they brought Bledsoe back after 2003.

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

He was not good last year.  The pre-acl sample set may no longer be relevant.  It seems almost impossible for him to return to best in the league. 

 

Roger

 

That was more or less my point, and agreed, he sucked last season, but lest we forget, he only played a handful of games late in the season in the cold.

 

My point was that even if he rebounds to 80% of what he was hell be decent.  

 

It's the rest of the secondary that we should be worried about first.  ... and we need some of Beane's draftees to step up.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, Rico said:

No reason to not be very optimistic about this team in the off-season. It’s not like when they brought Bledsoe back after 2003.

 

More reason than ever offensively.

 

Not so much defensively speaking.  

 

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by PBF81

[corta765]

20 hours ago, Chaos said:

He was not good last year.  The pre-acl sample set may no longer be relevant.  It seems almost impossible for him to return to best in the league. 

 

This year will be telling if he still has it and can perform at a high level for a few more years or if he is damaged for good. ACL injuries typically take a year and half to truly return to complete health both physically and mentally. Just because outliers exist where guys returned super fast and just as good does not mean it is the norm. Also position matters big time, CB relies heavily on quick cuts and movement so you really need to be able to trust your body and that it will perform. In Vons case it is a little easier as he just attacks forward without the quick cuts and turns the way a CB does. Doesn't mean it still doesn't impact pass rushes but they seem to have an easier bounce back compared to CBs.

[bearstobills]

If you are a Bills fan...what more can you ask for than to be in the hunt.  And BB has certainly put us legitimately in the hunt.  They were actually good enough last year, but a perfect storm of maladies converged, and the team simply ran out of gas.  Next year will be the true test.  Josh's and Stef's big money kick in, and we are already something like 35 mil over the cap.   

 

The Super Bowl or failure attitude expressed on this board is maddening.  So much needs to go right; including luck, health, officiating, and favorable matchups. Constantly dinging Beane for drafting guys like A.J. or Boogie is also frustrating.  Have any of these "fans" actually looked back at the draft boards to see what was available?  Of course you can cherry pick a few guys in retrospect, but the cupboards weren't exactly stacked.  Or Ed's draft year....I believe over half of the 5th year options weren't even picked up.  The Bengals drafted Jonah Williams after the Bills selected Oliver.  Or all the love Howie Roseman gets, and he selected Jalen Reagor one pick before Justin Jefferson.  How about the Chiefs throwing a first round pick to the wind with CEH. Or SF throwing a king's ransom at the chance to draft Trey Lance. We could go on and on. Imagine the skewering BB would get on here for any of these moves.  But the bottom line is drafting, roster construction, and winning is damn hard business.  And Beane's rosters win. 

 

Backseat GM's, here is my motto.  "In Beane I trust".  I simply think he is better at his job than most of his peers, and certainly folks on this board (although this board is full of humor, wisdom, and level-headedness).  He's more than capable of putting together a string of elite draft classes, just like he has put together a string of elite rosters (note to fans, we lost 3 games last year and 2 of them were flukes...that's elite).

 

Can't wait for the season!!

 

  

[BigDingus]

On 6/1/2023 at 7:49 AM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

The home field weather advantage has not been an advantage for 20+ years. Probably only helped when playing LA Raiders and Dolphins in the playoffs during the SB years. 

We are an elite passing offense. Josh doesn't play well in the rain. Does any qb? Cold is not an issue. Its the rain and wind they have had to play in multiple times the last few years. 

Add the fact we get a ton of players from the SEC who never played in the cold. Its no advantage.

 

Exactly. Which is why it was just a passing mention & something we can't control. "Josh doesn't play well in the rain. Does any QB?" The reason it was mentioned is because more & more QB's play half their games in a dome or decent weather, where ours plays in Buffalo. Other QB's aren't coached by Dorsey, who at times seemed hell bent on deep passing & longer routes, with no run plays, regardless of the conditions. There's a reason Burrow & Cincy seemed to have zero issue in the bad conditions, and it's because they were smarter in the plays they called.

 

So just chalking it up to "well nobody does well in rain," is really missing the whole point. Why do those teams seem to do better than us in those same exact games? Is everyone's QB better than Josh Allen? No.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 5/30/2023 at 3:16 PM, newcam2012 said:

Funny how fans can just see that Cinci pathetic loss as a " one off."  You seem to be doing your best interpretation of this. No disrespect intended.

 

He's why that loss is significant. The Bills for 5 years have found ways to lose big playoff games. The Cinci game is another example of bad playoff losses.

 

At some point, players, coaches, and the organization needs to get it done. Fans need to stop making excuses and hold people to accountability. 

There is only one team that wins the SB. All playoff games are big games and 13/14 of those teams end up losing them. I'm not sure what really constitutes a "bad" playoff loss from a good one? Should all of those coaches who lost be fired? I don't think so. I think if you're FO gives you a chance to challenge for the title every year then you should hold onto them, upgrade where they fell short, and push for one next year. I think it would be incredibly short-sighted to get rid of the 2nd best front office in the franchise's history. If they can't get it done within the next 5 years then I am with you 100%, but it's just too early. Too many people bought into the SB hype last year and placed enormous expectations on a team that still has some glaring issues on the offensive & defensive lines. 

[Chaos]

Reason for Optimism:

 

Wizardly extension of Ed Oliver. 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

There is only one team that wins the SB. All playoff games are big games and 13/14 of those teams end up losing them. I'm not sure what really constitutes a "bad" playoff loss from a good one? Should all of those coaches who lost be fired? I don't think so. I think if you're FO gives you a chance to challenge for the title every year then you should hold onto them, upgrade where they fell short, and push for one next year. I think it would be incredibly short-sighted to get rid of the 2nd best front office in the franchise's history. If they can't get it done within the next 5 years then I am with you 100%, but it's just too early. Too many people bought into the SB hype last year and placed enormous expectations on a team that still has some glaring issues on the offensive & defensive lines. 

Glaring issues on both sides of the ball really says it all. 

 

I agree it's probably too early to start taking apart the front office and coaching staff. 

 

What's becoming more clear each year is the Bills have fallen short playoff time. Why? 

 

I don't buy the only one team wins it all philosophy. Sure it's true but that mentality is the wrong mindset. It builds in excuses for not winning it all. At the start of each season do you think teams are reminded of this? Of course not. The mindset of quality teams is to win it all! Anything short of this for the Bills is somewhat disappointing. They have an elite QB which should land them at the very least a Super Bowl appearence. Burrow and Mahomes have done this and Allen is right there with both of those QBs.

 

Why have the Bills failed to progress further in the playoffs? Of course, not an easy question and many variables and angles account for this. I've seen a 5 year pattern of Beane/ McD led teams underpreforming in the playoffs. I think that's a reasonable statement. I'd take it a step further and say I've seen the Bills coaching staff get outperformed in the playoffs; especially the last few years. 

 

Sure you can chose to focus on the Bills accomplishments to get there. Focus on how they had a chance as you state. 

 

I have my concerns that Beane, McD, Dorsey, and the Bills organization will continue to fall short. We've seen it year after year. What makes you think anything will be different this year? 

 

What's the move if Beane and McD can't get the team to progress further this year? Next year? The following year? At some point, tough decisions need to be made. Truthfully, I like McD as a person and a character guy. As a coach he's above average but clearly gets outclassed by the elites come playoff time. 

Edited June 3, 2023 by newcam2012

[BullBuchanan]

Reason for optimism 

Allen is a top 5 QB
Diggs is a top 5 WR

Milano is a top 4-3 OLB
 

Reason for pessimism
We're mostly running it back with a talent deficient team.
None of our skill position players outside of Diggs are difference makers - not even situationally
Our staff has no idea what to do with the RB position despite continued investment
Our staff has no idea what to do with the DL despite continued investment
Adding a guard or two won't magically fix our o-line.
Our team has always played terrible situational football under this regime and this kills them in the playoffs
Our secondary is getting very old with 3/4 starters coming off injuries
We're likely starting a safety at MLB

[Buffalo_Stampede]

This the best roster the Bills have constructed under McDermott/Beane and it’s only going to improve once they add an edge or Hopkins.

 

It might be their best team but they might got 10-7 due to schedule. This team will be better constructed for the playoffs.

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

This the best roster the Bills have constructed under McDermott/Beane and it’s only going to improve once they add an edge or Hopkins.

 

It might be their best team but they might got 10-7 due to schedule. This team will be better constructed for the playoffs.

 

What if they don't add an Edge or Hopkins?

 

He said he tried to get an Edge and couldn't, so he ended up claiming Cline and kicking the tires on Ray, who he later signed. At 9 DE's on the roster already and 2 added recently, he may not look to add a 10th.

 

And Hopkins is looking for money first and with what he's done already, especially after the Draft - he isn't going to get into a bidding war and it hasn't been confirmed yet that Oliver's extension has saved anything.

 

Not saying either is completely out of the question. I just think it's very likely neither happens. If that's the case, do you still feel the same way?

Edited June 4, 2023 by BillsFanForever19