Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[4merper4mer]

8 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Comes off like "black guy = trouble"

Calling someone a racist because they don’t agree with you is beyond pathetic.  

[Shaw66]

Well, I don't think I've entered into the DHop discussion substantively in any part of what's gone on in this and the other thread, so I'll take a minor stab at it and stop thinking about the guy.   Here are a few impressions, based on a little research, casual observation of the guy over the years, and review of a few posts here.

 

1.  No one knows the extent to which DHop would be a contributor on the Bills in 2023, and therefore no one knows the true extent of the gamble it would be to spend a lot of money on him.  And, of course, no one knows how much it would cost to get him.  So, I don't get the passion that so many people seem to bring to arguing one side or the other of those questions. 

 

2.  What we do know is that, at his best, DHop was a great receiver.   We also know that he hasn't been as great in the past few years.   We all scratched our heads when Houston let him go for very little, but then he went to Arizona and wasn't the truly dominant force that we expected him to be.  Maybe Houston wasn't as naive about his future as we thought.  Still, we've seen him make some great plays since leaving Houston, including one highlight reel play against Buffalo.   Bottom line, we don't know how much he has left. 

 

3.  There's not been much, so far as I know, documented about his being a problem or a borderline locker room cancer, but there has been a visible edge about him for several years.  In fact, he's always seemed to me to be similar to Diggs - fierce competitor, wants the ball, and unnecessarily strident on those subjects.   Having two wideouts like that, both demanding the ball and from time to time making teammates, uncomfortable could be more disruptive than the combo might produce. 

 

4.  Still, there is no denying that a productive Diggs and a productive Hopkins on the field together could be an all-time great wideout combination.  Both demand double coverage, both run exquisite routes, both are outstanding ball catchers.  Both are nightmares in the slot.   If Kincaid turns out to be as advertised, a receiving corps with all those guys could be unstoppable. 

 

5.  On the other hand, there is a limit to how much more productive he can make the offense.  How many more yards and how many more TDs is the offense going to get with DHop than without?  Last season the Bills were second to KC in yards per game and points per game (397 and 28), and as much as our video-game selves can imagine an offense putting up 600 yards per game and 50 points, that simply is not going to happen.  The athletes in the NFL are too good, and the Bills still wouldn't have an offensive line that dominates the defense.  Yes, yes, I know, with that great passing attack, running the ball would get easier and blocking would get easier, and blah, blah, blah.  I've played that mind game plenty of times, but when you watch the actual games, it's clear that it never takes the league very long to figure out how to slow down any offensive juggernaut.   So, at the end of the season, what will DHop have added?  30 yards a game, maybe?    What's he going to do, catch two more balls per game than Davis, at 15 yards a catch?   Probably something like that.  Will he also draw attention from Diggs and the tight ends, and therefore get some incremental additional yards for other receivers?   Yes, maybe, but if the Bills are throwing the ball that much more to take advantage of the best of DHop, they're also running less, and the total yards will be affected by that. 

 

Where does that leave me?   I'd like to see him in a Bills uniform.  I've never wanted OBJ, but as I said, I think Hopkins is an outstanding technician like Diggs, and Diggs is a really special weapon.   The two of them in the huddle, with any third wideout already on the roster, are a major, major problem.  Either one of them in the slot is a threat way beyond what we saw from Beasley on his best days.   

 

I come to the same conclusion that I often do:  I don't know, and I doubt any of us knows.   

 

I do know this, however, which is what I say all the time:   McBeane know way better than any of us how much he has left in the tank, how much of a problem, if at all, he is in the locker room, whether he would clash with Diggs, how much he is likely to add to the productivity of the offense, and how much it would cost to add him.  Their understanding of those issues is way beyond mine, and they've already decided how hotly they want to pursue him, if at all.   They already have an opinion, based on better information than we have, as to how likely it is that DHop can deliver what we see in our dreams.   

 

We'll know what McBeane think soon enough, because they apparently could find the money to get him if they really want him.  

 

[Dillenger4]

Harty in the slot combined with Kincaid in the slot at times. Big improvement.

Sherfield/Davis as #2 - may the best man win. Sherfield looked good last year at times.

Shakir and Shorty - good depth.

Knox and Diggs.

New RB's that can pound for the 3rd and 1 yards we never seem to get.

Hopefully a fresh Defense.

POONAH!!!

 

We are set.... If anything, we need another pass rusher to cover while Von heals.

 

DHOP aint even close to coming here.  

[Airseven]

Quite the fiasco. Bills should stay away from Hopkins.

[Draconator]

Just now, Airseven said:

Quite the fiasco. Bills should stay away from Hopkins.

We try to stay away from you, but you're like a bad STD. You just keep coming back.

[Brand J]

If I’m Jacksonville I’d make a serious push for Hopkins. 

[MiltonWaddams]

Just now, JayBaller10 said:

If I’m Jacksonville I’d make a serious push for Hopkins. 

Didn’t consider them, but they should put their best foot forward 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Also WR is a position where age is mostly unforgiving... I think due to the fairly extreme level of physical excellence needed to play the position. I don't know how credible this is but according to Statmuse there are only 11 NFL WRs over the age of 30.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-current-wide-receivers-over-the-age-of-30

 

The downfall usually starts with nagging injuries. Often the WR still plays well when healthy but has a hard time staying healthy.

 

 

The more I read about yours and @4merper4mer's posts, the more I have thought objectively about this.

 

Pros:

- Game breaking ability

- Split top end coverage between him and Diggs

- A very low drop percentage

- Another safety blanket for Allen

- Big game experience which would stand in good steed during the playoffs (when we have badly needed O help)

 

Cons:

- Recent injury history

- (irrespective of what people think about the type of enhancers) Broke league rules

- AZ could not find a suitor for a trade despite being open to eating part of his salary

- Benchmarks against other 30 + WRs which reflect unfavorably on his chances of sustained success

 

We cannot over-look the red flags for someone who Dorsey would scheme into the gameplan. If the FO and medical staff think that he can sustain a season (and Bills seasons are long with playoff games included) full of strain even if the number of snaps is managed then by all means do the cap magic and fit him in. He can be the missing piece to a truly fantastic offense. 

But if his availability is in doubt, then the Bills should take a pass. Worst case, make it a back end loaded 2 years contract with exit for "substance abuse" and playing time. Also, the last thing I want Beane to do is to sign him as a PR measure and to placate the vocal crowd who is pounding the table for signing him. 

 

I am decidedly less enthusiastic than I was a couple of days ago. 

[clayboy54]

7 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Quite the fiasco. Bills should stay away from Hopkins.

That’s just so you can come back in a few months and argue Beane did nothing to address the thin WR room. 🤣

[muppy]

Tap tap tap tap tap tap tap tap ... ..

 

Wha'ts the holdup ? 

 

I WANT A THREAD TITLE REVISION!~!~!!!

 

 

🍿

Edited May 28, 2023 by muppy

[Don Otreply]

13 minutes ago, clayboy54 said:

That’s just so you can come back in a few months and argue Beane did nothing to address the thin WR room. 🤣

This is pretty darn true, it fits the MO to a T,

[SoCal Deek]

I watched a bit of last years Bills v Ravens game on NFL Network last night. Davis was nothing short of horrible in that game dropping three passes in just the first half alone if I recall, and one was a touchdown. Just saying. 
 

[Dr. K]

Don't sign him. There's a distortion field around this guy that will undermine the dilithium crystals that make this ship run. 

[pennstate10]

57 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Lol! Clueless. Brady was clearly taking a chit ton of growth hormone, but he's "less cheating" than Hopkins.

 

You. Are. Clueless!!!

Serious question. How is it clear that Brady was taking HGH?

I know that there can be physical signs of anabolic steroid use, but what is the evidence Brady was using hgh?

[Shaw66]

54 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Harty in the slot combined with Kincaid in the slot at times. Big improvement.

Sherfield/Davis as #2 - may the best man win. Sherfield looked good last year at times.

Shakir and Shorty - good depth.

Knox and Diggs.

New RB's that can pound for the 3rd and 1 yards we never seem to get.

Hopefully a fresh Defense.

POONAH!!!

 

We are set.... If anything, we need another pass rusher to cover while Von heals.

 

DHOP aint even close to coming here.  

I agree.  I mean, I like the idea of Hopkins, but the truth is that if Dorsey does his job and Allen does his job, the Bills already have enough fire power. 

[HappyDays]

59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

On the other hand, there is a limit to how much more productive he can make the offense.  How many more yards and how many more TDs is the offense going to get with DHop than without?

 

For me adding Hopkins isn't about adding production. It's about adding someone that can make critical plays in critical moments. Allen and Diggs were the only two that consistently did that last year. A championship offense needs more than just two guys with that ability.

 

Every Bills loss last year you could point to at least one drop that arguably lost us the game:

 

Dolphins loss:

-Davis drop in the endzone, taking 4 points off the board in a game we lost by 2

 

Jets loss:

-Davis drop on 3rd down, forcing us to punt

-Davis drop on 4th and forever in the final seconds, ending the game

 

Vikings loss:

-Diggs drop on 3rd down, forcing a punt on a critical drive

-Knox drop in the endzone in OT right before Allen's game-ending interception

(I'll also throw in as an honorable mention that Davis 100% dropped the ball on 3rd down on our game-tying drive at the end of regulation, the officials just missed it)

 

Bengals loss:

-Davis drop on a vertical route on 3rd down which effectively ended the game

 

There were of course other plays and other failures that led to each of these losses, but we now have the ability to fix this one glaring issue just by adding Hopkins (and for that matter Kincaid) to the picture. According to ESPN, Hopkins has just three drops on 315 targets over the past three seasons - this 1% drop rate is the best in the NFL over that time span.

 

Nobody will care about the additional 15 yards per game or so that Hopkins may add to the offense, but we will care about that one extra critical catch in a critical game that ultimately leads to us getting the #1 seed. Like you point out we already have the production. We're missing the moments.

[BillStime]

Hmmm

 

 

[4merper4mer]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

For me adding Hopkins isn't about adding production. It's about adding someone that can make critical plays in critical moments. Allen and Diggs were the only two that consistently did that last year. A championship offense needs more than just two guys with that ability.

 

Every Bills loss last year you could point to at least one drop that arguably lost us the game:

 

Dolphins loss:

-Davis drop in the endzone, taking 4 points off the board in a game we lost by 2

 

Jets loss:

-Davis drop on 3rd down, forcing us to punt

-Davis drop on 4th and forever in the final seconds, ending the game

 

Vikings loss:

-Diggs drop on 3rd down, forcing a punt on a critical drive

-Knox drop in the endzone in OT right before Allen's game-ending interception

(I'll also throw in as an honorable mention that Davis 100% dropped the ball on 3rd down on our game-tying drive at the end of regulation, the officials just missed it)

 

Bengals loss:

-Davis drop on a vertical route on 3rd down which effectively ended the game

 

There were of course other plays and other failures that led to each of these losses, but we now have the ability to fix this one glaring issue just by adding Hopkins (and for that matter Kincaid) to the picture. According to ESPN, Hopkins has just three drops on 315 targets over the past three seasons - this 1% drop rate is the best in the NFL over that time span.

 

Nobody will care about the additional 15 yards per game or so that Hopkins may add to the offense, but we will care about that one extra critical catch in a critical game that ultimately leads to us getting the #1 seed. Like you point out we already have the production. We're missing the moments.

Lol the Bengals game was Davis’ fault.  Do you blame Malaysia for WW2?

[glazeduck]

Has anyone pointed out (we're now well clear of 300 pages...) that us getting Hopkins would bring all of the previously stated benefits (and risks) but also keep all of our most significant Super Bowl competition from getting them? 

 

Of course he comes without risks. Justin Jefferson isn't getting cut tomorrow, nor is TJ Watt. At some point we're going to have to take a risk on a big move. Hopkins' performance last year suggests that he can maintain a high level of play for at least the next year or two, we should all be incredibly excited to even be in the discussion for this kind of move, let alone the odds-on favorites. 

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Comes off like "black guy = trouble"

 

"Roidster" in a league of Greek statues running 4.3s, having tendons and muscle tears heal 3xs faster than regular humans.

 

Being an athlete and having muscle tears heal infinitely faster than Joe blow, are not related. These guys aren't healing faster because they're athletes, 99% of the league is using sh**.

 

Dude still thinks hulk hogan just ate his veggies 🤣 

I gave you a while to apologize/retract calling me a racist but crickets.  I’m sure you don’t care but congrats on being first ever and probably last ever report to moderators.

Edited May 28, 2023 by 4merper4mer