Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[Gregg]

Can't blame D-Hop for going for the money. I would do the same. A career can be cut short in an instant. Trying to make the most money while you can makes sense.

[Manther]

56 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is where I’m at… The Bills are one injury away at WR from having a bottom 5 unit. 

Where would the Chiefs be if Kelce got injured?

[BobbyC81]

27 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Sometimes things happen for a reason...

 

This reminds me of Antonio Brown or JJ Watt. He chose money over a real shot at a ring. We will see.

And Ryan Tannehill is his QB!

[Irv]

Hopkins is available.  Since when?  We should get him!

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So, you're "pretty sure" he would have signed for an extra year for a couple of mill ... because he would want that extra year? Yeah, that makes no sense. An extra year for a lot of money? Maybe. An extra year for very little more? In what way is that better for any player?

 

It's not.

 

Sure, the Bills could have built in incentives. That's basically a form of offering more money, which the Bills would not have wanted to do. We know that since they did not want to give him even as much as the Titans did, much less more.

This isn't entirely accurate Thurman. His base salary isn't 15 million. The 15 million is incentive based. My understanding is his annual salary is about 12 mil each year. So the money gap could be more than you are implying with the extra year the Bills could have offered. Yes, I will concede it still might not have been enough. 

 

Additionally, many players will take less to get the opportunity to win it all. All depends on the player and their priorities. 

 

In short, the Bills had options and had selling points. I believe a deal could have gotten done that would have been benifical for both sides. 

 

Feel free to disagree. 

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

There is one thing that is patently clear — DHop was all about where he could get the most money, not where he could win a Super Bowl.  To argue otherwise is foolhardy.  Your “aging” point also negates the enticement of a 3-year deal.

 

That's a fair statement in some regards. Other factors that are unknown were probably in play. Maybe the city of Buffalo wasn't his proffered region, maybe he wanted to be the true number one WR, maybe he felt like he wouldn't be targeted to his liking, or maybe the Bills offer wasn't close to the Titans offer. Maybe he would have taken a little less under the right circumstances. 

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It wouldn't "be considered" a tear down. But yeah, it very likely would have forced them to start making decisions that they didn't want to make that would have seriously impacted. Again, they're already $25 to $41M over the cap next year. Adding very significantly to that 

 

Agreed that risk v. reward is a consideration, but so is price for this guy vs. guys we'd have to give up down the road instead. This close to the weeds, it's likely the bigger consideration.

 

The Davis move has absolutely been addressed here, even in this thread. Davis may already not be here, depending on how he does and how much he gets in the next contract. We might not be able to afford him even without the extra expense of Hopkins. 

 

Hopkins is very likely going to be better this year, that's not a sure thing but likely. But he's already on the way downhill, and Davis is still heading up. Davis will likely either end up here or end up getting us another nice high comp pick, helping us in future years when Hopkins will likely be headed quickly towards a nice announcing gig or a podcast somewhere.

 

 

 

 

Yup. While not over, it's at least running out of gas. That's been the overwhelming likelihood for a long time now, but many just didn't see it, or at least want to see it.

Nice post Thurman!

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

It’s official. You’ve gone off the deep end🤦‍♂️

Lol. Thanks for the love Mr. Chandler. I can always count on it like clockwork. 👍

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Unless it was all guaranteed I don't see him jumping at that offer.  

That seems to be the conscious amoung many here. Maybe I'm more likely wrong here than right. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

Can't blame D-Hop for going for the money. I would do the same. A career can be cut short in an instant. Trying to make the most money while you can makes sense.

In his career he earned $47 million.  After taxes, that's probably $30 million.   If he lived on $1 million a year (and that's a lot of money to spend in a year), he'd have $20 million banked.   Over the last ten years, that would have grown into $25 million.  

 

Okay, so if he had been smart with his money, he'd have $25 million in the bank.  Say he bought a house for his mom and some other, so call it $20 million. 

 

On $20 million, he can take 4% a year more or less forever, so that means he can have annual income of $800,000 a year forever.   Forever.   He can live pretty nicely on $800,000 a year.  

 

Point is, if he really wanted to, he could have joined whatever team he wanted.  

[Gregg]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

In his career he earned $47 million.  After taxes, that's probably $30 million.   If he lived on $1 million a year (and that's a lot of money to spend in a year), he'd have $20 million banked.   Over the last ten years, that would have grown into $25 million.  

 

Okay, so if he had been smart with his money, he'd have $25 million in the bank.  Say he bought a house for his mom and some other, so call it $20 million. 

 

On $20 million, he can take 4% a year more or less forever, so that means he can have annual income of $800,000 a year forever.   Forever.   He can live pretty nicely on $800,000 a year.  

 

Point is, if he really wanted to, he could have joined whatever team he wanted.  

 

Good point but he is not the first or last who will sign for the bigger payday. Speaking of money and contracts I wonder if the Giants and Barkley reach a deal, I think today is the deadline for him to sign his franchise tag at 4:00.

[Shaw66]

I can see from Hopkins point of view.   The top teams weren't offering nearly the same money.   And I don't get the idea that the Bills could have gotten him with an incentive-laden contract.   What's the incentive?  1200 yard season?   If I'm DHop, I see them throwing a lot of balls to Diggs and Kincaid; I can get to 1200 a lot easier in Tennessee.   

 

Bottom line, the Bills didn't see DHop as the silver bullet they needed, contrary to the views of many around here.  

 

Nice move for Tennessee.   At least it's an effort to recover from letting a high quality receiver leave, and it gives them a high-quality guy to pair with Henry.  With that combo, Tennessee might surprise people, but probably not.  

 

 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I can see from Hopkins point of view.   The top teams weren't offering nearly the same money.   And I don't get the idea that the Bills could have gotten him with an incentive-laden contract.   What's the incentive?  1200 yard season?   If I'm DHop, I see them throwing a lot of balls to Diggs and Kincaid; I can get to 1200 a lot easier in Tennessee.   

 

Bottom line, the Bills didn't see DHop as the silver bullet they needed, contrary to the views of many around here.  

 

Nice move for Tennessee.   At least it's an effort to recover from letting a high quality receiver leave, and it gives them a high-quality guy to pair with Henry.  With that combo, Tennessee might surprise people, but probably not.  

 

 

 

Unless injuries ruin their season, I think the Jaguars are winning that division.

[CincyBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In his career he earned $47 million.  After taxes, that's probably $30 million.   If he lived on $1 million a year (and that's a lot of money to spend in a year), he'd have $20 million banked.   Over the last ten years, that would have grown into $25 million.  

 

Okay, so if he had been smart with his money, he'd have $25 million in the bank.  Say he bought a house for his mom and some other, so call it $20 million. 

 

On $20 million, he can take 4% a year more or less forever, so that means he can have annual income of $800,000 a year forever.   Forever.   He can live pretty nicely on $800,000 a year.  

 

Point is, if he really wanted to, he could have joined whatever team he wanted.  

And don't forget that gold plated NFL pension.

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Good point but he is not the first or last who will sign for the bigger payday. Speaking of money and contracts I wonder if the Giants and Barkley reach a deal, I think today is the deadline for him to sign his franchise tag at 4:00.

Yeah, I don't blame him.   If he's looking at $30 million from one team and $10 million from another, that's a lot of money to leave on the table because he wants to win.  Just saying that if he managed his previous earnings wisely, he COULD have done it if he wanted to.  

 

McBeane want guys with a certain mindset, and that mindset is not "where's the money?"  I'd guess that the more DHop showed in negotiations he was about the money, the less the Bills were interested.   It probably was a short negotiation.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In his career he earned $47 million.  After taxes, that's probably $30 million.   If he lived on $1 million a year (and that's a lot of money to spend in a year), he'd have $20 million banked.   Over the last ten years, that would have grown into $25 million.  

 

Okay, so if he had been smart with his money, he'd have $25 million in the bank.  Say he bought a house for his mom and some other, so call it $20 million. 

 

On $20 million, he can take 4% a year more or less forever, so that means he can have annual income of $800,000 a year forever.   Forever.   He can live pretty nicely on $800,000 a year.  

 

Point is, if he really wanted to, he could have joined whatever team he wanted.  

While this is a nice theoretical analysis of Hopkins's bank account your point really is moot.

 

Yes, in theory he "could have" joined whatever team he wanted. But why would he do that? Why would he subject his body to the rigors of an NFL season without proper compensation? Would you take significantly less than your value to work for a company because at the end of the year they MAY win a team accomplishment? Without knowing what (and more to the point IF teams like the Bills or Chiefs offered) we have no idea how far apart any offers may have been. 

 

So the Titans offered $26M over 2 years. Let's say hypothetically Beane offered $14M over the same length. Why in the world would anyone expect him to take that? For a ring? Fans really still think most players care about winning a championship ring above all else? That's a fairy tale, my friend. Right up there with the rest of the PR things guys say when they sign with a team.

 

Now, if the money is close...sure maybe a ring opportunity comes into play. Same scenario as above where Tenn offers 2/26M and Buffalo comes in at 2/22M...ok. But no one should take below their market value. Be it in the NFL, in corporate world or even working at a local fast food joint. 

 

 

***Edit: just saw your replies to others that came when I was typing this. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[Don Otreply]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I don't blame him.   If he's looking at $30 million from one team and $10 million from another, that's a lot of money to leave on the table because he wants to win.  Just saying that if he managed his previous earnings wisely, he COULD have done it if he wanted to.  

 

McBeane want guys with a certain mindset, and that mindset is not "where's the money?"  I'd guess that the more DHop showed in negotiations he was about the money, the less the Bills were interested.   It probably was a short negotiation.

It seams Beane has a history of not giving time to players with this sort of attitude, that’s why he was willing to pay Von a ton of cash, Von has required level of team first attitude that Beane requires, that and his history of being a quality player speaks for itself. 

[MasterStrategist]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I am almost positive Hines could have been cut with zero dead cap. That was part of the appeal of trading for him last year, we weren't tied to him beyond 2022. Settle I'm sure had a small dead cap hit, although I can't find his previous contract before the restructure listed on Spotrac or Over The Cap. But certainly those two combined with Poyer would have given us all or almost all the cap space we needed to sign Hopkins.

 

Their replacements are mostly already on the roster. Oliver, Ford, Phillips, and maybe bring back Brandin Bryant. Cook, Harris, and Murray is good enough for me.

 

 

I'm aware that most of the fanbase was excited for his return. Not me though. Safety is the least important position on defense. As Allen's cap hits grow we can't afford such a luxury as an expensive safety tandem. It just isn't that important. Poyer is getting older too. It was time to move on.

 

More succinctly: The drop off from Poyer to Rapp <<< The drop off from Hopkins to Davis. Really it isn't even close especially when you factor in positional value.

 

 

Why would I bring up a 2022 signing as something they could have foreseen would impact their ability to sign Hopkins in 2023? If that's the standard, Beane's decision making looks even worse in retrospect. But I'm trying to be fair.

 

 

Yeah I already addressed this... I'm not pinning those losses solely on Davis. I'm saying that his inefficiency was a major cause of those losses and in Hopkins we had an immediate solution to that inefficiency. You're conflating "I think Davis was a fixable problem" with "I think Davis was the only problem." In your world I guess we shouldn't offer any suggestions for improving some aspect of the team because other flaws would still exist.

 

On the subject of efficiency... With Beane failing to upgrade the biggest problem of our offense last year, his free agency spending this year looks very inefficient. It's too bad because overall I liked the signings he made, but I said at the beginning of the offseason that the whole offseason would be a failure if he didn't definitively add a superior #2 target. I have to stand by what I said.

 

Beane can say whatever he wants publicly about how signing Hopkins is out of his hands because of the salary cap situation. The reality is that it was very much in his hands and he let it slip away.

 

Fingers crossed Kincaid meets my wildest expectations as a rookie.

Again, Dhop wasn't a FA until AFTER Beane made these roster decisions, that you are referencing. So how is this different than KC?  And if Beane was so desperate to upgrade on Davis this offseason, it would have happened.

 

You're so wrapped up in signing Dhop you're missing what our major flaws were the past few years.  Dhop over Gabe is a sizeable upgrade on paper and fantasy football, but Dhop isn't winning those 4 games for us LY.  Instead you want to use Gabes drops as a way to point the finger.

 

I'm sorry Beane doesn't agree with your takes.  I'm glad he hasn't.  We needed better IOL play, slot/middle of field targets, and improved DL play/more physical defense.  Those were head and shoulders bigger issues than Gabe.  And that's what Beane has addressed.

 

Everyone wants to replicate Cincys WR room/model.  That's great if we hit on draft picks.  But Beane has built a stable of weapons at Josh and Dorseys disposal this season.  This has been debated by everyone too, I'm a believer we have a solid group that will create mismatches; along with improved OL for Josh and running game.

 

Kincaid doesn't need to meet wild expectations either...your last sentence comes across as childish banter.  I get it, you're frustrated or whatever, but it's the entire team that needs to play to their expectations (and stay healthy) to win us a SB.  That's mainly been a defensive letdown in past playoff games, let me remind you.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Manther said:

Where would the Chiefs be if Kelce got injured?

They won the SB after reading a top 5 receiver. For some reason, I just believe Mahomes would make their backup TE super productive.

 

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I don't blame him.   If he's looking at $30 million from one team and $10 million from another, that's a lot of money to leave on the table because he wants to win.  Just saying that if he managed his previous earnings wisely, he COULD have done it if he wanted to.  

 

McBeane want guys with a certain mindset, and that mindset is not "where's the money?"  I'd guess that the more DHop showed in negotiations he was about the money, the less the Bills were interested.   It probably was a short negotiation.

With all due respect, this is kinda silly. All players want the money and you are actually like Beane is Theo not GM with this mindset. Beane certainly didn’t have this mindset with Von and that is a contract that might age very badly. It is also handcuffing with free agents going forward as well

[Warriorspikes51]

I'm just glad this is over and it's not KC

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Sometimes things happen for a reason...

 

This reminds me of Antonio Brown or JJ Watt. He chose money over a real shot at a ring. We will see.

Well we didn’t win rings either. Brown was certifiably crazy and Watt was a broken player at the end of his career. Hopkins was super productive and never relied on speed. He still is a really really good player. 
 

 

44 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In his career he earned $47 million.  After taxes, that's probably $30 million.   If he lived on $1 million a year (and that's a lot of money to spend in a year), he'd have $20 million banked.   Over the last ten years, that would have grown into $25 million.  

 

Okay, so if he had been smart with his money, he'd have $25 million in the bank.  Say he bought a house for his mom and some other, so call it $20 million. 

 

On $20 million, he can take 4% a year more or less forever, so that means he can have annual income of $800,000 a year forever.   Forever.   He can live pretty nicely on $800,000 a year.  

 

Point is, if he really wanted to, he could have joined whatever team he wanted.  

Or he could have gotten a great contract with a team that was 7-3 last year with garbage receivers, that just has a better record than us the previous year.