Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[Mr. WEO]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I am afraid you are playing the offseason "on paper" game.

 

The Bills had 5 guys last season who "on paper" should have put up 500+ yards receiving.......Diggs, Davis, Knox, McKenzie and Cook. 

 

And I mean.......the first 4 all did or came very close and they had a total of 3200+ yards.........but it was the inefficiency in accumulating those bulk numbers that plagued them once teams developed a good strategy for Stefon Diggs and The Pips.     

 

Your argument sounds a lot like the narrative that @Zerovoltz has been pushing..........but the reality is that it's a matchup league and if you don't have a very good WR2(which Juju was for KC last season) it doesn't matter that much if the rest of your corps are all WR3-WR4 type talents.  

 

There has been no better indicator of SB worthiness over the last 6 years than the quality of your second receiving option.

 

I liked the Kincaid pick but there is a lot riding on one rookie to become the 2nd option and get the Bills in the conversation with the other SB contenders.......who all have a better playmakers.    Or in the case of the Chiefs, much better pedigree of unknowns with a #1 or #2 from each of the last 3 drafts competing for WR2 between Kelce and MVS.

 

 

 

JuJu was WR 1 last year.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

JuJu was WR 1 last year.

 

By WR1, WR2, WR3 we are really talking about receiving weapons.......so Travis Kelce was an elite WR1.

 

110 catches

1338 receiving yards

12 TD

 

Juju did finish 24th in the NFL receiving yards and did so with a gaudy 77% catch rate.........technically WR1 type numbers..........but by SB contender standards that was a very good WR2.    Not Tee Higgins or Devonta Smith but still legit.

 

MVS was basically Gabe Davis but with like a dozen less targets.......those two guys are as close of a comp to each other as any two WR's in the NFL.

 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

By WR1, WR2, WR3 we are really talking about receiving weapons.......so Travis Kelce was an elite WR1.

 

110 catches

1338 receiving yards

12 TD

 

Juju did finish 24th in the NFL receiving yards and did so with a gaudy 77% catch rate.........technically WR1 type numbers..........but by SB contender standards that was a very good WR2.    Not Tee Higgins or Devonta Smith but still legit.

 

MVS was basically Gabe Davis but with like a dozen less targets.......those two guys are as close of a comp to each other as any two WR's in the NFL.

 

Right

 

Nobody would complain about Davis as a third option but in his current role he's an anchor imo

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Pabstblueribbon said:

I think its going to be a "Wr2 by committee"

 

What is a recent example of "WR2 by committee" that was successful? There's really no such thing. Somebody has to have the 2nd most receiving targets on the team. Last year it was the highly inefficient Gabe Davis. Having a lot of solid depth behind him doesn't minimize that inefficiency.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then say that. Don't hide your misevaluation of a player's value under the guise of "he should be willing to take a discount for a playoff team." It's been well established what restructures and/or extensions could be executed to afford Hopkins at his real market value. Beane is pretending that he can't afford more than a couple million per year but that's a lie.

 

For whatever reason Beane has been willing to drastically overpay the Vernon Butlers and Trent Murphys of the world, but not the OBJs and Hopkins. The combined cap hits of Hines, Settle, and Harty this year is $11,569,000. I bet that right there gets you Hopkins, maybe with a Dawkins or White restructure thrown in for good measure. I can almost guarantee you Hopkins' value will exceed the combined value of those players this year.

 

So don't believe Beane when he says "this player is only affordable if he accepts a discount." He has shown through previous contracts that he will pay 

 

Sure, this is my last bastion of hope. Jeudy in particular is the one I have my eye on if Denver's season goes the way I think it will. If we don't obtain Hopkins but we ultimately trade for an upgrade at WR2 I am good with that.

 

First off, it is your opinion that Beane has a "misevaluation of a player's value", but Beane's opinion seems to be holding up better than yours.  Hopkins has not hit the OBJ lotto.

 

No, we don't believe Beane when he says the player is only available if he accepts a discount, that is GM speak.  He has a value in mind and doesn't want to overspend.  Past overspends aren't really relevant (and Beane did pick up J Brown/E Sanders/Beas in the past).

 

 

 

 

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then say that. Don't hide your misevaluation of a player's value under the guise of "he should be willing to take a discount for a playoff team." It's been well established what restructures and/or extensions could be executed to afford Hopkins at his real market value. Beane is pretending that he can't afford more than a couple million per year but that's a lie.

 

For whatever reason Beane has been willing to drastically overpay the Vernon Butlers and Trent Murphys of the world, but not the OBJs and Hopkins. The combined cap hits of Hines, Settle, and Harty this year is $11,569,000. I bet that right there gets you Hopkins, maybe with a Dawkins or White restructure thrown in for good measure. I can almost guarantee you Hopkins' value will exceed the combined value of those players this year.

 

So don't believe Beane when he says "this player is only affordable if he accepts a discount." He has shown through previous contracts that he will pay certain depth caliber players their market rate and then some. Our inability to afford Hopkins within our current salary cap is not just a matter of "oh well, that's the nature of the NFL" like Beane is presenting the situation as. It's a direct outcome of Beane misevaluating various players' values over the years.

 

 

Sure, this is my last bastion of hope. Jeudy in particular is the one I have my eye on if Denver's season goes the way I think it will. If we don't obtain Hopkins but we ultimately trade for an upgrade at WR2 I am good with that.

 

Happy, I agree with you about how the Bills might be forced into trading for a WR at the trade deadline if they don’t sign Hopkins….

 

For a while now, I’ve had a weird feeling that the team is just not prepared to go the whole season with the current crop of WRs…

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by JaCrispy

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Fair points.  I tend to see the "positives"/potential, but do agree it's all on paper right now.

 

With 100% confidence, I like:

Kincaid, Harty,Shakir, Sherfield >>> McKenzie, Crowder, Kumerow, etc.

 

My main focus of seeing potential improvement is:

1. IOL

2. 1 inconsistent player (McKenzie) is no longer with us, and if just 1 guy (or multiple) of those named above can be a consistent slot option, I see us having many more mismatches.

3. Better run game

 

That, plus I'm very hopeful that Dorsey makes the necessary adjustments and our 2nd year guys make a step.  We do have an offense that can be more multiple, yes counting on Kincaid for that to happen.  But if he pans out even to modest projections, defenses will need to make some difficult choices (formationally and scheme).  

 

As far as WR2 being a "marker" of success, I haven't looked into it but makes sense and trust your statement.  However, I'd also say that recent SB teams have also had another key trait: solid OL play. Case in point, we saw a Chiefs team limp into that TB superbowl (with a superior #1 and #2 WR) and get beat.

 

Just making the point that we had several weaknesses to address this offseason and Beane appears to have taken a different vision than some fans wanted.  Not saying he's right, because everything is on paper like you said as of now.  But I can see their Plan (and same weaknesses were glaring at end of LY), and now it comes down to players/coaches hitting their potential.

 

And JMO, but JuJu never scared opponents and was a product of their system.  He actually was phased out over the past 5 games leading up to the SB (10 catches 120 yards, over that 5 game span).  @Zerovoltz i havent followed his discussion, but from what I've read before he's also an educated fan/clued in.  Seems to me that KC was spreading the ball around quite a bit, and likely a similar situation coming up this season

 

 

1) With regard to 100% confidence......yeah, sure now that we know in hindsight that some of those guys were totally washed........but in terms of what they have proven in the NFL:

 

OJ Howard > Kincaid.........most Bills fans thought they might get that very productive 2017-2019 version of OJ Howard

Crowder > Harty or Sherfield.....no contest..... 2 guys who have averaged 190 yards per season versus Crowder who had averaged 657 yards per season prior to last year

McKenzie > Sherfield..........clearly more production offensively in career

Kumerow > Shakir..........two depth guys that need to cover kicks and one of them doesn't

 

I understand that it's the offseason and we want to imagine the greatest outcomes for the new players but if you don't know your past........you don't know your future.    The odds don't favor these dudes all out performing their 2022 counterparts.

 

Isaiah McKenzie was trash in hindsight.........but his 224 yards per season average is well above the career averages of Sherfield and Harty.   I am actually a little worried that Sherfield is going to be a stumble-bum like Lil' Dummy after he co-authored the "Butt punt" last season and dropped a sure TD pass against the Bills in the playoffs.

 

2) As with #1.......I hope you are right but they didn't exactly sign studs for the IOL.   Hopefully Torrence pans out because they other guys were sketchy adds.

 

3) Agree that I expect Dorsey to be better.   I think McD wanted a more consistent play caller than the wacky-wacky Daboll and Dorsey was that.........but a first year OC hasn't won a SB in almost 40 years.   And true to form......he got outcoached by an experienced DC in Anarumo in the playoffs.

 

4) I think fans discount Juju because they don't like his social media act.   Dude had a 1400 yard receiving season in his still relatively young career and put up over 900 yards as option 2 with a 77% catch rate last season.   That is undeniably good.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep… Hell, give me Hopkins over Poyer and Floyd contracts. 

Nah. Floyd and Poyer are instrumental to stopping Mahomes/Burrow. Now if you want to say Morse and Neal... 

[LABILLBACKER]

10 hours ago, Dopey said:

Eureka!! You get it now. It is entertainment. Quit treating it like its life or death. Or don't. 

We're 4-5 in the playoffs under McD. 4-3 in the past 3 seasons. It's not like he's saying, "screw the playoffs, we had a great regular season". 

The fan who is content with this narrative wants a title too. We're just able to enjoy entertaining/winning football. 

Frightening?!?!? Kinda dramatic, no?   

 

First of all if it's not life and death, why are you on here so often?  Secondly how massive is your "participation trophy" collection?  

[Solomon Grundy]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

no they aren’t…

Why not?? Floyd isn't a good enough pass rusher? Poyer isn't an All Pro safety?? You'd rather Epenesa and Hamlin man those positions? I'd personally be okay with Bates and Rapp taking over Morse/Neal duties

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

no they aren’t…

Floyd was instrumental in stopping burrow…..in the SB….. holding them to 20 points in a 3 point win.  He had a very good game - 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit. 
 

He also had a key sack in their win vs the defending champion bucs- 4 tackles 1 tfl 1 QB hit in that game.  Another 3 point win.  
 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by NewEra

[Ya Digg?]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Kincaid is a TE-in-name only........but so is Mike Gesicki.

 

Until Kincaid proves he is actually capable of winning against a steady diet of NFL CB coverage then he brings more question marks than a stud WR like Jordan Addison would have.

 

They reportedly wanted one of the top not-TE-in-name-only receiving targets and settled on Kincaid when he was perceived to be much better than what was left.    

There’s a whole lot of conjecture in this statement. There were a ton of questions about Addison going into the draft, stud is a pretty subjective word to use there. All of these receivers (Kincaid included) were taken within a handful of picks from each other-the of the “reports” really don’t have a ton of merit. For all anyone truly knows, Kincaid could’ve been there too guy-so could any of those receivers. Sounds like you still feel as though the Bills barely got a consolation prize out of this. It’s a mismatch league and if he can become the mismatch we all want him to be, that’s going to be a considerably higher value than anything Addison or any of those other receivers could have brought to the team 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep… Hell, give me Hopkins over Poyer and Floyd contracts. 

 

So I will say I very much support the Floyd signing. We need a capable edge across from Rousseau while Von Miller recovers, and someone to keep Basham off the field once Miller is back. I get the desire to go all in on offense, but you can't ignore defense entirely. Spending a modest sum on a more than capable pass rusher was a necessary move IMO. Edge may be the 2nd most important position on the team, or at least equal to or just behind WR.

 

On Poyer I agree. I don't share the excitement that most of the fanbase does on spending critical cap dollars on an aging safety. Despite my appreciation for what he has meant to the team these past few years I was ready to move on. I wish some other team had given him the contract he wanted. We could have Hyde in his final year and Rapp on a cheap contract. I don't need more than that from the safety position... I'm guessing it was kind of the inverse of the Hopkins situation, Beane drew a line in the sand about how much he would be willing to pay Poyer, and when Poyer came crawling back to accept the lowball offer he felt that he had no choice but to re-sign him. It makes me think that maybe Beane should stop obeying his lines in the sand and instead should use his salary cap as efficiently as possible.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

There’s a whole lot of conjecture in this statement. There were a ton of questions about Addison going into the draft, stud is a pretty subjective word to use there. All of these receivers (Kincaid included) were taken within a handful of picks from each other-the of the “reports” really don’t have a ton of merit. For all anyone truly knows, Kincaid could’ve been there too guy-so could any of those receivers. Sounds like you still feel as though the Bills barely got a consolation prize out of this. It’s a mismatch league and if he can become the mismatch we all want him to be, that’s going to be a considerably higher value than anything Addison or any of those other receivers could have brought to the team 

 

To put the term "conjecture" in perspective..........the Bills use "a whole lot of conjecture" when making all personnel moves.    All of them.  Nothing is guaranteed........it's just an opinion on the basis of incomplete information.    How could projecting what a player will do next season be anything else? 

 

How it pertains to your post?   You are just pretending that conjecture isn't presumed because you are inclined to bicker for the sake of it.

 

I like Kincaid but if the Bills had the first overall pick in the draft would that have been my choice?   No.  Does that make their pick a consolation prize?  I guess in your mind it does but that's not how the draft works.   They were slotted where they were and I tend to agree that he was the best receiving prospect left on the board when they decided to move up.

 

All rookies bring the additional risk of adjusting to the league.   Rookies being asked to convert from TE to WR.......probably a little more of a transition than a polished receiver like Jordan Addison......who could have come out in 2022 after an incredible season with Pitt........who will be playing a more familiar role.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So I will say I very much support the Floyd signing. We need a capable edge across from Rousseau while Von Miller recovers, and someone to keep Basham off the field once Miller is back. I get the desire to go all in on offense, but you can't ignore defense entirely. Spending a modest sum on a more than capable pass rusher was a necessary move IMO. Edge may be the 2nd most important position on the team, or at least equal to or just behind WR.

 

On Poyer I agree. I don't share the excitement that most of the fanbase does on spending critical cap dollars on an aging safety. Despite my appreciation for what he has meant to the team these past few years I was ready to move on. I wish some other team had given him the contract he wanted. We could have Hyde in his final year and Rapp on a cheap contract. I don't need more than that from the safety position... I'm guessing it was kind of the inverse of the Hopkins situation, Beane drew a line in the sand about how much he would be willing to pay Poyer, and when Poyer came crawling back to accept the lowball offer he felt that he had no choice but to re-sign him. It makes me think that maybe Beane should stop obeying his lines in the sand and instead should use his salary cap as efficiently as possible.

I am surprised that others aren’t more into the Floyd signing.  The pass rush absolutely fell off a cliff after von went down and it seemed like it was masked some by the second half of the schedule being a bit easier/other afc east teams having offensive line struggles.
 

 If cincy got all their injured olinemen back and we got daquon jones and von miller back I gotta think we come out ahead in that exchange without even getting to Leonard Floyd being in the mix.  Of course we still probably lose the game though because our offensive line was garbage too but that’s for another thread lol  you could’ve dropped prime jerry rice on that bills roster and we still would’ve lost that game.  

 

Poyer I’m genuinely not sure about as he was playing through injuries most of the season.  Safety play seemed like a huge issue after the hyde injury though so idk how much we could afford to lose him. It seemed to me like he has a good year considering the circumstances but all anybody will remember is his bad game against cincy which is understandable 

 

[Dopey]

On 7/12/2023 at 2:30 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This drama had nothing to do with Allens personal life, and it stemmed from how Diggs was being used the 2nd half of the season when his usage when noticeably down compared to the first half of the season.  Diggs has even discussed this in interviews how he felt like even though they still won, things were just harder and not going smoother like earlier in the year.  He was frustrated with his role decreasing while the struggles as an offense and team as a whole were increasing.  

The day Diggs was "dismissed" by coach, Josh specifically said it's not football related. The issue was between Diggs and Josh. Josh even said they will work it out. Folks don't want to believe Josh could do wrong. I get it. I think he let this stardom get to his head, banged a couple of hot chicks who weren't his girlfriend and it caught up to him. Except for a few here, everyone wants to just forget about this and blame Diggs for having an ego problem. He looked pissed that Josh wasn't ready to play. Distracted, maybe? 

An old high school friend wrote in my yearbook back in the day " use a rubber and you'll learn, no deposit, no return".

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is fair… however if you are asking me who would be more instrumental to the teams playoff success Floyd and Poyer or Hopkins you know my answer considering this teams inability to stop anything in their elimination games and the offensive centric league it’s become. 

I would never ask you that. You know, that I know, that asking would be a waste of our time.  
 

I don’t disagree.  If healthy for the playoffs, I’d take hopkins over floyd.  Maybe over floyd and Poyer.  
 

now we’ll get to see Hopkins play for the chiefs and we’ll get to see even more of your anti McB posts because he allowed the chiefs to get him

[NewEra]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

If Hopkins goes to KC we MUST bring back your boy Tavon Austin. 😜

We’ll be fine with my new boys Kincaid, Harty and Sherfield 😘 

 

we just have to worry about everyone’s boys, Spencer Brown and Ken Dorsey!

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I would never ask you that. You know, that I know, that asking would be a waste of our time.  
 

I don’t disagree.  If healthy for the playoffs, I’d take hopkins over floyd.  Maybe over floyd and Poyer.  
 

now we’ll get to see Hopkins play for the chiefs and we’ll get to see even more of your anti McB posts because he allowed the chiefs to get him

Hopkins over Floyd or Poyer.  Not over both.  

 

I think Hopkins is a risk.  There are reasons he was traded and now is an unsigned FA.  

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hopkins over Floyd or Poyer.  Not over both.  

 

I think Hopkins is a risk.  There are reasons he was traded and now is an unsigned FA.  

That’s why I said maybe over floyd and Poyer.  
 

I agree.  Hopkins is a risk.  I don’t think as big a risk as some do.  He had been healthy for 99% of his career.  Had one injury, took some illegal substances and was suspended for half the season.  It’s not like he was really hurt last season, he just didn’t want to risk any more injury (imo) while they were tanking with no QB.  
 

there’s risk that he faces an even longer suspension if he takes more illegal substances, but I don’t think he’ll be that stupid. 
 

I don’t think there’s any more risk in him missing time to initial than there is for Poyer.