Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[Beck Water]

48 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

When that's the best you got...

 

Again, what do you see as appropriate production from a #2 WR?

 

You make it sound as though the Bills have never tried to field a #2 WR. 

 

Brown's production the year before the Bills relied on him as #2 was 5 catches, 70 ypg

2020, year they parted with him, it was 4 catches, 51 ypg; Bease was the #2 with 5.5 catches, 65 ypg
2021, they signed Sanders, expecting at least 4 receptions and 51 ypg from him and hoping he could return to 2018 6 catch, 72 ypg form

2022, it's a fair "cop" that the Bills were relying on Davis and McKenzie to take over for Sanders and Beasley, and in hindsight that didn't work as well as they'd like

Partly IMO for reasons beyond their control.

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

And you're discrediting all of them because unless the team has two Superstar, All Pro, Household names, we apparently have nothing.

 

What are you talking about man? I just want a better #2 option than Davis. Every recent Super Bowl participant has had a #2 target better than Davis, without fail. Look at the recent participants yourself if you don't believe me. So either we are the first team in recent history to break that trend, or we upgrade Davis. There is no alternative.

 

I'm totally aware that it is possible one of Kincaid, Harty, or Shakir massively exceed expectations and become the #2 target in this offense. Merely expressing that possibility is meaningless though. I don't want a possible "in a best case scenario" upgrade, I want a definite upgrade. And even in the worst case scenario with Hopkins in this offense he is clearly an upgrade on Davis. That's all I want.

 

I'm completely satisfied with the pass catching depth. But we are still lacking a top end piece that every recent Super Bowl participant has had. It appears to be a minimum standard and I worry that us not having it will once again lock us out of a Super Bowl appearance. If we had elite offensive coaching maybe I'd feel better about it. But instead we have a sophomore play caller working with an offense that is handicapped by a limited receiver in the #2 target role.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by HappyDays

[gobills404]

3 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

We've known for a long time an offense needs two WRs.

Literally could not be further from the truth. In the last decade, the 2015 broncos are the only SB champ with multiple 1000 yard WRs. I’ll even be generous and throw in the 2020 Bucs since Godwin and AB didn’t play full seasons. So that makes a whopping 2 teams in 10 years.

 

3 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

this is laughably poor management of a modern football team.

There have been way more SB champs in recent years with great OLs and great TEs than there have been champs with multiple great WRs. Guess where Beane invested the most this offseason? OL and TE. What a moron!

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

We don't run him on slants and digs because he isn't competent on those routes...  And that chart has nothing to do with accurate throws or offensive scheme or anything like that. It is just Matt Harmon diving into the film and charting each WR's success rate on every route they run whether they are targeted of not. If it was just Matt Harmon saying this we could say it doesn't mean much, but every objective analyst I've listened to has offered the same criticisms. Davis simply doesn't separate at a high level on the sorts of routes you expect the #2 WR to run.

 

In that article he mentions that Davis has never once in his career been above the 35th percentile in route success rate against zone, man, or press coverage (again NOT based on catches or targets or any contextual statistic, just based on charting the film). Think about that... The presumed #2 target in our offense in our Super Bowl window is a below 35th percentile WR. And you wonder why so many of us want a legit #2 added to the mix?

 

 

So I have a question for you.  What is the route success rate against zone, man, or press coverage of other WR in the league?  What is it for Diggs?  For Tee Higgins?  For Waddle?  For TikTok Boi?  Zay Jones?  Peoples-jones?

 

Since you mention contextual statistics, I'd like to understand these statistics in the context of how other WR in the league do.  Obviously every guy isn't open on every play, the idea is to have at least one guy open.  What is an outstanding rate?  What is an average rate? 

 

The Bills do run a lot of clearing routes where the other WR job is to draw attention and leave Diggs open.

 

Comment: I agree with slants digs and flats not being Gabe Davis "thing".  Those are usually the bread and butter of the guy who has the quickness and deception to run them - usually the slot.  I am surprised by the comeback stats,  I actually perceive that quick little comeback as one of Davis best routes.

 

I'd like to reiterate a point I made a while back.  The hole I saw in the Bills offense in 2022 (and to some extent in 2021) wasn't the outside "#2" WR running go routes and posts and corners and deep crossers.  It was having that great guy in the middle of the field, the 2020 prime Beasley who can almost always get open on those slants and digs and flats and intermediate crossing routes.  Sanders could historically run those routes but whether he was hampered by injury or for some other reason, they didn't seem to use him there much.  Beasley wasn't getting there fast enough (IMO) in 2021.

 

So to me, the Bills making a serious investment (1st round pick) in the best pass-catching TE in the draft in the hope he can fill that hole, makes perfect sense.

 

[HappyDays]

23 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

So I have a question for you.  What is the route success rate against zone, man, or press coverage of other WR in the league?  What is it for Diggs?  For Tee Higgins?  For Waddle?  For TikTok Boi?  Zay Jones?  Peoples-jones?

 

To see all of the WRs on that site you have to pay a subscription. I'm not a subscriber so I don't know where other WRs rank. But someone on Twitter posted a snippet from that article where it says that Davis has always been no higher than the 35th percentile in those metrics. So we're talking about a WR near the bottom third of route success rate. I'd be interested to know where contested catch specialists like Tee Higgins and Mike Williams fall in that percentile, but the thing with guys like that is they make catches even when covered so any flaws they have as separators they can make up a good bit of ground with their contested catch ability. Davis has not been a contested catch specialist and in fact has a much higher than average drop rate. So I just don't see anything he offers as the #2. His is a limited skill set that lends itself well to being a #3 target.

 

I don't care where the #2 target plays - outside, slot, RB, TE, I really don't care. I just want a superior talent to Davis taking that high volume of targets. If Kincaid becomes that as a rookie, great. I'm just not counting on it.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by HappyDays

[MasterStrategist]

54 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

What are you talking about man? I just want a better #2 option than Davis. Every recent Super Bowl participant has had a #2 target better than Davis, without fail. Look at the recent participants yourself if you don't believe me. So either we are the first team in recent history to break that trend, or we upgrade Davis. There is no alternative.

 

I'm totally aware that it is possible one of Kincaid, Harty, or Shakir massively exceed expectations and become the #2 target in this offense. Merely expressing that possibility is meaningless though. I don't want a possible "in a best case scenario" upgrade, I want a definite upgrade. And even in the worst case scenario with Hopkins in this offense he is clearly an upgrade on Davis. That's all I want.

 

I'm completely satisfied with the pass catching depth. But we are still lacking a top end piece that every recent Super Bowl participant has had. It appears to be a minimum standard and I worry that us not having it will once again lock us out of a Super Bowl appearance. If we had elite offensive coaching maybe I'd feel better about it. But instead we have a sophomore play caller working with an offense that is handicapped by a limited receiver in the #2 target role.

 

We just invested a 1st/4th round pick, to me that should answer your point about "lacking a top end talent".  Beane tried to address it.

 

Back to Gabe, to me this offense is going to have more "mis matches" this season.  Kincaid/Shakir/Harty should be MUCH better than what we rolled out LY. 

 

In addition to improving our IOL, Josh should have more time, a better run game/playaction, and allow more freedom for Knox/Cook to get into routes vs chipping.

 

So, it's not about who our #2 target is.  It's about feeding Diggs, and having a complimentary offense that can take advantage of a mismatch.  If that's Gabe some games, or Kincaid/others, or the running game, etc...thats what we missed at the end of LY.

 

Beane specifically mentioned being able to attack the middle of the field.  Lots of ways to accomplish that.  But Gabe has his role, excellent deep ball player, we need our 2019/2020 Beas to let this offense be more dynamic. 

 

So maybe we're all agreeing, to an extent,  that Gabe should be less of a focal point, but that doesn't require us to bring in a better outside WR.  We need better play in the middle, starts up front on the Oline and then slot play.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, julian said:

I’m speaking of Diggs displeasure of the constant doubles and bracketed coverages. Of course the Bills can restructure without Diggs consent, that doesn’t mean he didn’t ask what they’re doing with the cap room and was told they’re looking to get him the help he wants and needs.

 

 Nobody knows anything other than those in the building and more precisely Diggs.

 

All good and not trying to be rude here...but yes it does mean that didn't happen.  There is no plausible scenario where Beane literally told Diggs "We are restructuring you to sign DHop".  That is my whole point, that is media/fan fantasy land and is not realistic.  Beane would not tell a player he is restructuring him to get another player, and he 100% would never do it if he didn't already have the deal done with the other player.  And that is the narrative I was responding to earlier in this thread.

 

And just about all credible information out there (including Diggs own interviews) suggests Diggs wants more touches or involvement and was unhappy with his personal role in the offense second half the season where is usage rate went way down.  And even the now infamous play where Diggs was upset on the sideline was after a play Diggs was open and didn't get the ball.  

 

So not only is it not plausible from Beanes side that he would ever consult with or assure Diggs that they are using the savings to sign DHop, but it doesn't even fit the narrative if anyone is actually paying attention to what Diggs and others have publicly stated since the end of the season.    

 

Again, all good bro, but this idea that Diggs is upset we didn't sign DHop is just not realistic.  

[PatsFanNH]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good and not trying to be rude here...but yes it does mean that didn't happen.  There is no plausible scenario where Beane literally told Diggs "We are restructuring you to sign DHop".  That is my whole point, that is media/fan fantasy land and is not realistic.  Beane would not tell a player he is restructuring him to get another player, and he 100% would never do it if he didn't already have the deal done with the other player.  And that is the narrative I was responding to earlier in this thread.

 

And just about all credible information out there (including Diggs own interviews) suggests Diggs wants more touches or involvement and was unhappy with his personal role in the offense second half the season where is usage rate went way down.  And even the now infamous play where Diggs was upset on the sideline was after a play Diggs was open and didn't get the ball.  

 

So not only is it not plausible from Beanes side that he would ever consult with or assure Diggs that they are using the savings to sign DHop, but it doesn't even fit the narrative if anyone is actually paying attention to what Diggs and others have publicly stated since the end of the season.    

 

Again, all good bro, but this idea that Diggs is upset we didn't sign DHop is just not realistic.  

Is it plausible they told Diggs they wanted to restructure his contract so they could had the ability to sign a difference maker? Then they failed to sign said difference maker? Unlike what the other poster said they did need Diggs to agree to restructure his contract and they had to give him a good reason why or they gave him a crap load more money as a signing bonus to get him to agree and create more cap

spce. 

[julian]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Is it plausible they told Diggs they wanted to restructure his contract so they could had the ability to sign a difference maker? Then they failed to sign said difference maker? Unlike what the other poster said they did need Diggs to agree to restructure his contract and they had to give him a good reason why or they gave him a crap load more money as a signing bonus to get him to agree and create more cap

spce. 

Yeah I’m unsure how the restructuring works, I just took the posters word for it that it was language already in the contract allowing for restructuring without prior notice or consent.

 

 I’m not sure why it’s not plausible Diggs was told one thing about where his restructured cap space was going and then seen them sign Floyd instead.

 

 It doesn’t even need to be about Dhop necessarily, they coulda just said we’re bringing in help the offensive side of the ball.

 

 But do I know, just taking guesses like everyone else.

[NoSaint]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Is it plausible they told Diggs they wanted to restructure his contract so they could had the ability to sign a difference maker? Then they failed to sign said difference maker? Unlike what the other poster said they did need Diggs to agree to restructure his contract and they had to give him a good reason why or they gave him a crap load more money as a signing bonus to get him to agree and create more cap

spce. 

why would diggs say no to getting his salary as an up front bonus, even if they spent the cap space on a backup punter? Yet alone a good edge rusher. 

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Is it plausible they told Diggs they wanted to restructure his contract so they could had the ability to sign a difference maker? Then they failed to sign said difference maker? Unlike what the other poster said they did need Diggs to agree to restructure his contract and they had to give him a good reason why or they gave him a crap load more money as a signing bonus to get him to agree and create more cap

spce. 

 

No.  Not plausible.  That is not at all how it works.  

[BananaB]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

why would diggs say no to getting his salary as an up front bonus, even if they spent the cap space on a backup punter? Yet alone a good edge rusher. 

Because he wants to win. If it’s not going where he thinks the team needs help maybe he got the balls to say ***** you!  We have no clue what what said during the restructure, but considering the way he left after the playoff loss I doubt he went in there and signed without asking questions. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by BananaB

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

To see all of the WRs on that site you have to pay a subscription. I'm not a subscriber so I don't know where other WRs rank. But someone on Twitter posted a snippet from that article where it says that Davis has always been no higher than the 35th percentile in those metrics. So we're talking about a WR near the bottom third of route success rate. I'd be interested to know where contested catch specialists like Tee Higgins and Mike Williams fall in that percentile, but the thing with guys like that is they make catches even when covered so any flaws they have as separators they can make up a good bit of ground with their contested catch ability. Davis has not been a contested catch specialist and in fact has a much higher than average drop rate. So I just don't see anything he offers as the #2. His is a limited skill set that lends itself well to being a #3 target.

 

I don't care where the #2 target plays - outside, slot, RB, TE, I really don't care. I just want a superior talent to Davis taking that high volume of targets. If Kincaid becomes that as a rookie, great. I'm just not counting on it.

 

Ultimately, what I'm saying is you're laser focused on who you think is #2 and not looking at the core as a whole.

 

KC had Kelce and JuJu, but what else? We have Diggs, Davis, Kincaid, and Knox. If Davis is faltering, his targets go to Kincaid in the Slot or Knox at TE. And/or Harty. And that's not even taking into account Shakir or the pass catching RB's like Cook and Hines.

 

It's a very talented deep pass catching core and the idea that between Davis, Kincaid, Knox, and Harty there won't be a single viable option outside of Diggs is insane to me. 

 

He targeted Harty on Day 1 of FA and doubled down by spending a 1st and a 4th on Kincaid. You don't do that thinking "He's just a Rookie though, can't count on that at all". Also brought in Sherfield and bought a scratch off so to speak by Drafting Shorter in the 5th. All of this with Diggs, Davis, Knox, and Shakir already in house. 

 

There's no way he did all of that and is thinking "I didn't get enough insurance for Davis, who I still believe in, I NEED to bring in Hopkins too".

 

NFL.com has us having the 3rd Ranked Offense in the Entire League and you're acting like we're in rough shape and have a "yeah, but" for any player not named Diggs just to justify your idea that Hopkins is 'need' and not a 'want'. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-top-10-offenses-in-2023-bills-chiefs-eagles-produce-highest-win-share-proj

Edited June 21, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No.  Not plausible.  That is not at all how it works.  

It did with Brady up here in NE. They would always ask him restructure for these reasons. He always did. 

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

why would diggs say no to getting his salary as an up front bonus, even if they spent the cap space on a backup punter? Yet alone a good edge rusher. 

Isn’t that what I said?that was the or part.

[Solomon Grundy]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

I have an idea. Kincaid = yellow jacket.  

A bumblebee?? 

[HappyDays]

42 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Ultimately, what I'm saying is you're laser focused on who you think is #2 and not looking at the core as a whole.

 

Well of course I am! You can't paper over the #2 target in a passing offense that hopes to win the Super Bowl. What you're arguing for doesn't actually work in practice. You can't just say "well these four players collectively will be the #2." That's just something fans convince themselves of to pretend the problem doesn't exist. Great depth doesn't cover up for middling top end talent, ever. Great depth with lack of top end talent has locked the Bills into the 2nd tier of the NFL.

 

And I'm not just talking out of my *** here. This isn't a theoretical discussion. We have real evidence from recent seasons. Here are the #2 passing targets on the last five years worth of Super Bowl participants, the winners and the losers:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

No doubt every one of those players in those respective seasons was substantially better than Davis. JuJu is probably the worst of them and he has a 1,400 yard season on his resume.

 

That's the kind of #2 talent it takes to even approach the finish line. Case in point the closest we've gotten in the Allen era is when we had Beasley in his prime as our #2 target. We're seriously lagging behind that standard unless one of the players you mentioned suddenly ascends to that level.

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by HappyDays

[BADOLBILZ]

35 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

KC had Kelce and JuJu, but what else?

 

1. Kelce

2. Juju

3. Valdes-Scantling (their Gabe Davis)

4. McKinnon (512 yards receiving)

5. Justin Watson

6. Noah Gray

7. Mecole Hardman

8. Moore (2022 second rounder)

9. Toney (2021 first rounder)

 

You are obviously a pretty casual NFL fan and probably don't know who half of those players are but their receiving options were a lot stronger than the Bills.   Mahomes didn't throw for 5250 yards(4th all time) without people who were making plays when the ball was thrown to them.   Noah Gray caught over 80% of his targets and looks like a terrific pass catching TE in his own right.   Their 8th and 9th options caught TD passes in the SB and as very talented, high picks they are expected to step into key roles in 2023.

 

By contrast, the Bills REALLY need their high pick to hit the ground running as a rookie.   Of course, Bills fans like yourself were presuming that James Cook would do so in the pass game as a rookie too.   He was called a receiver playing RB.   He was a rookie and played and produced like a rookie in the pass game.   Just 180 yards.  

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well of course I am! You can't paper over the #2 target in a passing offense that hopes to win the Super Bowl. What you're arguing for doesn't actually work in practice. You can't just say "well these four players collectively will be the #2." That's just something fans convince themselves of to pretend the problem doesn't exist. Great depth doesn't cover up for middling top end talent, ever. Great depth with lack of top end talent has locked the Bills into the 2nd tier of the NFL.

 

And I'm not just talking out of my *** here. This isn't a theoretical discussion. We have real evidence from recent seasons. Here are the #2 passing targets on the last five years worth of Super Bowl participants, the winners and the losers:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

No doubt every one of those players in those respective seasons was substantially better than Davis. JuJu is probably the worst of them and he has a 1,400 yard season on his resume.

 

That's the kind of #2 talent it takes to even approach the finish line. Case in point the closest we've gotten in the Allen era is when we had Beasley in his prime as our #2 target. We're seriously lagging behind that standard unless one of the players you mentioned suddenly ascends to that level.

 

 

 

Yeah the "Reception Perception" guy is always pointing this very thing out.    The quality of their second target has proven to be more of an indicator for teams reaching and winning the SB than the quality of their actual WR1.    If you go from a top 5 receiving target like Diggs to a guy like Davis who is in the 30's or 40's yardage-wise but even lower when you factor in the terrible catch % and top of the league type drop #'s.   That's a relatively HUGE obstacle for a team that expects to be elite to overcome.            

[PromoTheRobot]

44 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

A bumblebee?? 

 

[Beck Water]

 

 

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

To see all of the WRs on that site you have to pay a subscription. I'm not a subscriber so I don't know where other WRs rank. But someone on Twitter posted a snippet from that article where it says that Davis has always been no higher than the 35th percentile in those metrics

 

So the tweet I saw said that Gabe had a 61.6% success rate vs man and a 57.1% success rate vs press.  That’s 35th percentile?