Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[Starr Almighty]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

In targets? No, probably not. But if he proves to be a consistent speed deep threat for Josh, it's not completely insane to think he'd surpass Davis in yardage. And if that role comes to fruition in conjunction with Knox and Kincaid and Diggs as WR1 - Davis could become more of an afterthought anyways. Harty may or may not be a guy to step over Davis if he begins to faulter. But the way he's a complete and total nothing and an afterthought to you and other posters isn't fair. He's a player that Beane targeted in the 1st Wave of Free Agency and one of the few players he actually paid some money for outside of the minimum. He didn't do that to be completely buried on the Depth Chart and with fears of what he brings to the table.

 

Between him and Dalton and then Trent and Shorter on the bottom of the depth chart with what we already have, he's done a lot and built his pass catching core the way he liked. That's why we're not going balls to the wall for Hopkins. He isn't the need here that he is on most other teams.

 

 

That's fine that's what you want. But, again, the fact is that Beane targeted him very early in Free Agency is one of the select few he actually paid some money for. He didn't do that thinking "not a known commodity".

 

 

It means that Beane thinks he is a player worth acquiring and paying that for. Whether or not you think he was worth it or is a good player is a mute point. 

You didn't answer who would have better stats on the Bills Harty or Dhop. I'm pretty sure that was done on purpose.

[BillsFanForever19]

29 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:

You didn't answer who would have better stats on the Bills Harty or Dhop. I'm pretty sure that was done on purpose.

 

Yes, it's more likely than not Hopkins would have better stats. It's not a guarantee though. No one knows how either would work with Josh.

 

But that doesn't change the fact that he already signed Harty to a contract worth 5 this season that would cost more to cut him than keep him. He also spent a 1st and a 4th on a Big Slot WR. He's not looking at those guys and thinking "unproven, better go get Hopkins" like you and others are. He went out and got them because he has a role for them here.

 

Beane isn't going to pay big money for Hopkins. There's a reason he's visiting Tennessee and New England and he hasn't signed with us already. Beane has a price he's willing to pay (if he's made an offer at all) and he's not sweating whether or not Hopkins comes around to it or not. Because he's a luxury at this point.

Edited June 11, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Coach Tuesday]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yes, it's more likely than not Hopkins would have better stats. It's not a guarantee though. No one knows how either would work with Josh.

 

But that doesn't change the fact that he already signed Harty to a contract worth 5 this season that would cost more to cut him than keep him. He also spent a 1st and a 4th on a Big Slot WR. He's not looking at those guys and thinking "unproven, better go get Hopkins" like you and others are. He went out and got them because he has a role for them here.

 

Beane isn't going to pay big money for Hopkins. There's a reason he's visiting Tennessee and New England and he hasn't signed with us already. Beane has a price he's willing to pay (if he's made an offer at all) and he's not sweating whether or not Hopkins comes around to it or not. Because he's a luxury at this point.

How has Beane’s track record been in free agency on the offensive side of the ball, when it comes to betting on a material improvement in production?  Can you think of one guy he signed for the offense as a free agent whose production spiked when they got to Buffalo?  Beasley and Brown were known quantities - they produced, but their production did not materially increase to the degree that Harty’s would have to increase under your hypothetical.  Anyone else?

 

Beane and his team simply do not have the evaluation skills required to uncover diamonds in the rough on the offensive side of the ball.  It’s an organizational weakness and as a result, YES, they may need to overpay for a known quantity like Nuckie.  Lottery tickets like Harty are not a strategy.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

How has Beane’s track record been in free agency on the offensive side of the ball, when it comes to betting on a material improvement in production?  Can you think of one guy he signed for the offense as a free agent whose production spiked when they got to Buffalo?  Beasley and Brown were known quantities - they produced, but their production did not materially increase to the degree that Harty’s would have to increase under your hypothetical.  Anyone else?

 

Beane and his team simply do not have the evaluation skills required to uncover diamonds in the rough on the offensive side of the ball.  It’s an organizational weakness and as a result, YES, they may need to overpay for a known quantity like Nuckie.  Lottery tickets like Harty are not a strategy.

I don’t know that this is very fair. 
 

How many FA’s have we even really targeted at all on offense with Beane?

 

To take out the two biggest signings because they were known commodities - even when those two known commodities both had their best year in Buffalo - is a bit disingenuous. 
 

How many other signings have we even had?  The core has been QB, LT, C, TE, WR1, WR2, RB and Slot for much of their tenure.   Doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for diamond in the rough FA signings.. even though Ryan Bates should qualify, albeit as a trade move. 
 

This past year, I’ll agree .. Saffold was a disaster, Howard couldn’t even make the team and they bet on oft-injured Crowder, who.. got injured. 
 

Edited June 11, 2023 by SCBills

[4merper4mer]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

I don’t know that this is very fair. 
 

How many FA’s have we even really targeted at all on offense with Beane?

 

To take out the two biggest signings because they were known commodities - even when those two known commodities both had their best year in Buffalo - is a bit disingenuous. 
 

How many other signings have we even had?  The core has been QB, LT, C, TE, WR1, WR2, RB and Slot for much of their tenure.   Doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for diamond in the rough FA signings.. even though Ryan Bates should qualify, albeit as a trade move. 
 

This past year, I’ll agree .. Saffold was a disaster, Howard couldn’t even make the team and they bet on oft-injured Crowder, who.. got injured. 
 

He also purposefully qualified it to “free agents” rather than acquisitions.   Why would that be?  Are the evaluation skills different looking at players in free agency or trade?  Did we get any significant offensive players via trade?  Anybody decent come along via draft?

 

Beane really sucks at evaluating left handed fullbacks named Claude who were born on a Tuesday in Montana.  We don’t even have one of those.  If we did, I bet he’d stink like Harty.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

How am I moving the goal posts here? I was replying to HappyDays saying "Many of us simply aren't comfortable relying on Davis to once again be the #2 target share in this passing offense which is what he currently projects to be" by saying that he already might not be that. Nothing he or I said had anything to do with last year.

 

You just like to argue things that have little to nothing to do with what i'm talking about and then say i'm "moving the goal posts" when I explain what you're saying doesn't even fit the conversation.

 

 

Like I said.......you are trying to declare that the guy who was the #2 target last year isn't LIKELY to be the #2 target this year despite the team adding nobody who has ever produced anything close to that level in the NFL.     Sherfield and Harty(53) combined for 1 more target than Devin Singletary(52) last year.    Their career high seasons in targets wouldn't have cracked the top 4 for the Bills last year.     Their track record is as WR 4-7 for their teams over their careers...........expecting any of them to become a top 25 NFL receiving target next year is pretty absurd.   And that is the bar.   Here is where 4 of the top 6 SB contenders this year ranked in #1/#2 target receiving yards last year:

 

KC

Kelce 8th

Smith-Schuster 24th

 

Phil

AJ Brown 4th

DeVonta Smith 9th

 

Cin

Ja'Marr Chase 17th  (but missed 4 games and was 7th in yards per game)

Tee Higgins 20th

 

San Francisco isn't listed because they are much more run heavy but Deebo, McCaffrey, Kittle and Aiyuk(22nd in receiving yards fwiw) are generally regarded as the best group of offensive weapons in the NFL.

 

Buffalo by comparison had Diggs at #5 and Davis at #33..........but #33 with a huge asterisk because he was at the bottom of the league in completion % and the second most drops among all receivers in the league.

 

That's why people want Gabe UPGRADED and moved to option #3 or later........and a bunch of new faces with paltry or zero NFL production in their careers are HIGHLY UNLIKELY to become that top 25 level of player.

 

 

10 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Is it likely that Harty will become a Superstar? I wouldn't say for sure he will. 

 

You wouldn't say for sure?? 😂   This is exactly why your points are getting argued.   Your expectations for a journeyman addition who missed almost the entire season last year is thru the roof.    

Edited June 11, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[4merper4mer]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Like I said.......you are trying to declare that the guy who was the #2 target last year isn't LIKELY to be the #2 target this year despite the team adding nobody who has ever produced anything close to that level in the NFL.     Sherfield and Harty(53) combined for 1 more target than Devin Singletary(52) last year.    Their career high seasons in targets wouldn't have cracked the top 4 for the Bills last year.     Their track record is as WR 4-7 for their teams over their careers...........expecting any of them to become a top 25 NFL receiving target next year is pretty absurd.   And that is the bar.   Here is where 4 of the top 6 SB contenders this year ranked in #1/#2 target receiving yards last year:

 

KC

Kelce 8th

Smith-Schuster 24th

 

Phil

AJ Brown 4th

DeVonta Smith 9th

 

Cin

Ja'Marr Chase 17th  (but missed 4 games and was 7th in yards per game)

Tee Higgins 20th

 

Miami

Tyreek Hill 2nd

Jaylen Waddle 7th

 

San Francisco isn't listed because they are much more run heavy but Deebo, McCaffrey, Kittle and Aiyuk(22nd in receiving yards fwiw) are generally regarded as the best group of offensive weapons in the NFL.

 

Buffalo by comparison had Diggs at #5 and Davis at #33..........but #33 with a huge asterisk because he was at the bottom of the league in completion % and the second most drops among all receivers in the league.

 

That's why people want Gabe UPGRADED and moved to option #3 or later........and a bunch of new faces with paltry or zero NFL production in their careers are HIGHLY UNLIKELY to become that top 25 level of player.

 

 

 

You wouldn't say for sure?? 😂   This is exactly why your points are getting argued.   Your expectations for a journeyman addition who missed almost the entire season last year is thru the roof.    

Did you use an objective source to determine your top 6 Super bowl contenders or was Miami too hard to resist as a cherry pick?

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Did you use an objective source to determine your top 6 Super bowl contenders or was Miami too hard to resist as a cherry pick?

 

 

 

I removed Miami so that it's the CONSENSUS top 5 contenders according to the top Vegas sports books.    But I see Miami as by far the top contender against the Bills in the AFC East.   

 

Doesn't change the point in any way whatsoever.

 

The only one of the Vegas top 5 who doesn't have a proven much better #2 weapon option right now are the champs...........and they have a 2021 #1 pick and a 2022 #2 pick at receiver that have experience now and are expected to step up.

 

I really liked the Kincaid pick.........but I'd put the chances of him hitting the ground running and being a top 25 NFL receiver as a rookie at closer to 10% than 20%.   Those are bad odds when you need it NOW.   Even Sammy Watkins.....handed WR1.......wasn't better as a rookie than Gabe was last year when Allens passer rating and interceptions thrown when targeting Gabe were huge disappointments.

[HappyDays]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

In targets? No, probably not.

 

So what are we talking about here? The original point I made is that Davis is highly likely to be the #2 target in our passing offense which is a scenario that I am not comfortable with. YOU'RE the one that then tried to bring in names like Harty, Shakir, and Sherfield, as if any of them represent legitimate competition for Davis' heavy target share.

 

Davis wasn't the #2 target share in 2020 and 2021 when he had established veterans with proven production like Beasley and Sanders in front of him. This year, like last year, we don't have anybody like that. Harty is likely an improvement on McKenzie, Sherfield is likely an improvement on Kumerow, Shakir is likely an improvement on his rookie year self... That's all good but it's just improving the depth pieces on offense last year. The top end potential is still exactly where it was.

 

So it seems you agree that the only thing stopping Davis once again being the #2 target is Kincaid immediately hitting close to his ceiling as a rookie. It's a lot to ask. As confident as I am in his abilities, he still has to acclimate to the brutal NFL schedule and NFL physicality. No other Super Bowl contender is relying on a rookie to have that kind of impact on their offense.

 

You're trying to downplay the impact of the #2 outside WR in an offense that likes to throw the ball downfield and has a QB that specializes in tight window throws outside the numbers. Davis as the WR2 represents a major defect in the passing offense, just like it did last year. Maybe we'll overcome it if Kincaid hits his stride early and some of the role players rise above their expectations and the OL suddenly jumps to a top 10 level. As of right now though it is a huge question mark.

[NoSaint]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

In targets? No, probably not. But if he proves to be a consistent speed deep threat for Josh, it's not completely insane to think he'd surpass Davis in yardage. And if that role comes to fruition in conjunction with Knox and Kincaid and Diggs as WR1 - Davis could become more of an afterthought anyways. Harty may or may not be a guy to step over Davis if he begins to faulter. But the way he's a complete and total nothing and an afterthought to you and other posters isn't fair. He's a player that Beane targeted in the 1st Wave of Free Agency and one of the few players he actually paid some money for outside of the minimum. He didn't do that to be completely buried on the Depth Chart and with fears of what he brings to the table.

 

Between him and Dalton and then Trent and Shorter on the bottom of the depth chart with what we already have, he's done a lot and built his pass catching core the way he liked. That's why we're not going balls to the wall for Hopkins. He isn't the need here that he is on most other teams.

 

 

That's fine that's what you want. But, again, the fact is that Beane targeted him very early in Free Agency is one of the select few he actually paid some money for. He didn't do that thinking "not a known commodity".

 

 

It means that Beane thinks he is a player worth acquiring and paying that for. Whether or not you think he was worth it or is a good player is a moot point. 

Unless you think beane has a magic crystal ball it was a low dollar, low risk, high upside role player. Not a known answer.
 

if healthy, Davis should beat him on every metric. 

[WyoAZBillfan]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I removed Miami so that it's the CONSENSUS top 5 contenders according to the top Vegas sports books.    But I see Miami as by far the top contender against the Bills in the AFC East.   

 

Doesn't change the point in any way whatsoever.

 

The only one of the Vegas top 5 who doesn't have a proven much better #2 weapon option right now are the champs...........and they have a 2021 #1 pick and a 2022 #2 pick at receiver that have experience now and are expected to step up.

 

I really liked the Kincaid pick.........but I'd put the chances of him hitting the ground running and being a top 25 NFL receiver as a rookie at closer to 10% than 20%.   Those are bad odds when you need it NOW.   Even Sammy Watkins.....handed WR1.......wasn't better as a rookie than Gabe was last year when Allens passer rating and interceptions thrown when targeting Gabe were huge disappointments.

Have those 2 picks that are expected to step up already proven so? Isn’t that the same exact argument you’re making against the additions to Buffalo? Seems confusing a bit. 
Regardless, you’ll never find those gems that slide through the cracks if you don’t look. 

[Starr Almighty]

12 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yes, it's more likely than not Hopkins would have better stats. It's not a guarantee though. No one knows how either would work with Josh.

 

But that doesn't change the fact that he already signed Harty to a contract worth 5 this season that would cost more to cut him than keep him. He also spent a 1st and a 4th on a Big Slot WR. He's not looking at those guys and thinking "unproven, better go get Hopkins" like you and others are. He went out and got them because he has a role for them here.

 

Beane isn't going to pay big money for Hopkins. There's a reason he's visiting Tennessee and New England and he hasn't signed with us already. Beane has a price he's willing to pay (if he's made an offer at all) and he's not sweating whether or not Hopkins comes around to it or not. Because he's a luxury at this point.

This is a joke right? Last year Hopkins missed 8 games. And he was 81 yards short of Harry's career yardage in a single season where he only played half the games. 

 

Harty Career 798 yards

Hopkins 2022 season 717 yards

 

Please stop.

 

Can't guarantee he says 😂😂😂😂

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

Unless you think beane has a magic crystal ball it was a low dollar, low risk, high upside role player. Not a known answer.
 

if healthy, Davis should beat him on every metric. 

Low risk? High upside? Come on. Hoe do you characterize him as either? The Bills signed him to a 2 year, $9.5M contract with $5.25M fully guaranteed. That’s not that low of risk. Considering that it’s about half of what it looks like DHop will end up signing for I think the opportunity cost is significant. 

 

Dunno how high of an upside he’s got either. He’s a 5’6” 170# WR with one decent season (2021) of 570 yards and three other garbage seasons with 223 yards combined. He is an excellent returner so we’ve got that going for us. He may and even have value as the Bills gadget WR, but that’s just speculation as his 4 year career rushing total is 123 yards.

 

Last season 70 players had more receiving yards than Harty had in his one decent year. So it seems like a stretch to think the Bills couldn’t have found that production for a lot less. Or that he will significantly exceed his best year. Or that the cap space couldn’t have been better spent. 

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Low risk? High upside? Come on. Hoe do you characterize him as either? The Bills signed him to a 2 year, $9.5M contract with $5.25M fully guaranteed. That’s not that low of risk. Considering that it’s about half of what it looks like DHop will end up signing for I think the opportunity cost is significant. 

 

Dunno how high of an upside he’s got either. He’s a 5’6” 170# WR with one decent season (2021) of 570 yards and three other garbage seasons with 223 yards combined. He is an excellent returner so we’ve got that going for us. He may and even have value as the Bills gadget WR, but that’s just speculation as his 4 year career rushing total is 123 yards.

 

Last season 70 players had more receiving yards than Harty had in his one decent year. So it seems like a stretch to think the Bills couldn’t have found that production for a lot less. Or that he will significantly exceed his best year. Or that the cap space couldn’t have been better spent. 

They absolutely bet on him playing well above his current level of accomplishment. I hope they hit, because he could be a nice piece. If not, folks are going to be angry if the cost expenditure is the reason you can't acquire a Hopkins who presumably is more likely to be enough of his prior self to be an automatic upgrade to the unreliable Davis.

[Mat68]

Harty seemed to be highly sought after.  For a pure slot he had impressive efficiency under Payton.  Something like top 10 in yards per target and catch %.  He is a faster Mckenzie.  Something we wont know on September is how is he in that Beasley role? If he is sure handed and protects Allen his role could be bigger.
 

Sherrfield is an interesting signing.  He beat out Bourne in San Fran and Cedric Wilson in Miami.  Bourne left for a decent deal in NE.  Cedric was an expensive wr last year.  He has potential and immediately takes some of the dirty work off Davis.  Davis dropping to 80% vs 98 to 100 he had will contribute to him having his best season thus far.
 

Hopkins is was still imo offered a deal similar to Floyd.  They can make it work with a Dawkins or White restructure.  If not they are excited with what they have.  Sprinkle in Shakir and Shorter you can see some upside at the position.  
 

Hopkins doesnt guarantee a tile.  He is an upgrade and a guy worth going after but you have to consider his downside age and knees.  

[Saxum]

On 6/8/2023 at 9:54 AM, Shaw66 said:

I just jumped in and dont know if someone said this, but it's not 11% of the contract.  I assume 11% is the NYS highest tax rate.  He'd pay NYS tax only on the games he plays in NYS, so that's half his games.  So, coming to Buff over Tenn would cost him 5.5%, not 11%.  

 

If you wish to look at that way you need to compare schedules of other teams he is is looking at and what the state/local tax there is.

If he was considering the Rams/Chargers home games may be considerably higher.

In addition if he is not playing due to being unable to do so or inactive he is likely charged home game taxes.

No idea how taxes work when you are playing a game overseas.  When I worked TDY I only paid home state taxes even when I was working in California as long as I was not there longer than a certain duration but I believe the rules are different for NFL players for they only get paid for games.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

If you wish to look at that way you need to compare schedules of other teams he is is looking at and what the state/local tax there is.

If he was considering the Rams/Chargers home games may be considerably higher.

In addition if he is not playing due to being unable to do so or inactive he is likely charged home game taxes.

No idea how taxes work when you are playing a game overseas.  When I worked TDY I only paid home state taxes even when I was working in California as long as I was not there longer than a certain duration but I believe the rules are different for NFL players for they only get paid for games.

And someone pointed out that all of the bonus money is taxed in the home state.  It's complicated. In NYS he would pay less than 11 and more than 5.5%.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, WyoAZBillfan said:

Have those 2 picks that are expected to step up already proven so? Isn’t that the same exact argument you’re making against the additions to Buffalo? Seems confusing a bit. 
Regardless, you’ll never find those gems that slide through the cracks if you don’t look. 

 

 

The 1st and 2nd round picks haven't proven themselves as starters so far but they aren't rookies like Kincaid.   They were playing in a SB and catching TD passes on the biggest stage when Kincaid was recovering from a back injury and unable to workout during the draft process.   They should be ahead of him in their development.   The Chiefs also just drafted Rashee Rice with the 24th pick in round 2.   So the Chiefs have 3 high draft picks fighting for playing time while the Bills have just 1.    Their high pedigree eggs aren't all in one basket.

 

For veterans the Chiefs have Kelce and the faster version of Gabe Davis in Marquez Valdes-Scantling as options #1 and #3.  Richie James is their healthier-recently version of Deonte Harty coming off a 560 yard season with 80% completion when targeted in 2022.   Justin Watson is their version of Sherfield.    

[GoBills808]

16 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Totally fair.

 

Now, if he does in fact remain healthy all year, THEN what do we think the floor and ceiling are for reasonable expectations? 

I think 30 catches for 475 yards is a reasonable albeit optimistic projection

 

Emmanuel Sanders, a very good and proven NFL wideout, got 42 for 626 as the third option in this offense

[BarleyNY]

24 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Harty seemed to be highly sought after.  For a pure slot he had impressive efficiency under Payton.  Something like top 10 in yards per target and catch %.  He is a faster Mckenzie.  Something we wont know on September is how is he in that Beasley role? If he is sure handed and protects Allen his role could be bigger.
 

Sherrfield is an interesting signing.  He beat out Bourne in San Fran and Cedric Wilson in Miami.  Bourne left for a decent deal in NE.  Cedric was an expensive wr last year.  He has potential and immediately takes some of the dirty work off Davis.  Davis dropping to 80% vs 98 to 100 he had will contribute to him having his best season thus far.
 

Hopkins is was still imo offered a deal similar to Floyd.  They can make it work with a Dawkins or White restructure.  If not they are excited with what they have.  Sprinkle in Shakir and Shorter you can see some upside at the position.  
 

Hopkins doesnt guarantee a tile.  He is an upgrade and a guy worth going after but you have to consider his downside age and knees.  

Is he? McKenzie posted a 4.42 40. Harty had a 4.48. McKenzie also had better 3 cone and shuttle times.