Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[BADOLBILZ]

  On 5/29/2023 at 4:05 AM, Einstein said:

 

Great point.

 

We have now traded both the Mahomes pick, and the Jefferson pick.

 

We traded the picks that became the best QB in the league, and the best WR in the league.

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Which supports 3 notions.........having a franchise QB can cover up for a ton of personnel mistakes(and JA17 might be the second best QB in football)......... the Belichick take that you have to be making bad moves all the time to be bad in the NFL because there are abundant chances to make up for said mistakes..........and the old axiom that it's better to be lucky than good.

 

Bill Polian lucked into having the exclusive negotiating rights to Jim Kelly.    He parlayed that Buffalo luck into taking two other jobs where he got a chance to draft a franchise QB very early in the draft.   He hit on one of 2 and now.......largely due to fortune........ people look back on him like he was great.    

 

But he is also the dumbass that traded Marshall Faulk for a second round pick so he could pick another RB 4th overall..............and then watched Faulk become the best player in football the next few seasons while he struggled to build a championship caliber defense.   Faulk went to 2 SB's and won one.   Edge James aged out before the Colts won Polian's one career SB with Joseph Addai at RB.   Polian also refused to trade draft picks to add talent to put those SB Bills teams over the top.........to this day it's still inexplicable to me that he wasn't in on Charles Haley.   It was exasperating in real time.  The Niners traded him to their biggest traditional rival,  which illustrates how desperate they were to move him.  

 

 

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

  On 5/29/2023 at 4:32 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How would anyone be against this?

 

I actually like Gabe and think the injury really affected him last year and think he's due for a bounce back year...

 

BUT...

 

3 years with Diggs & DHop along with Gabe's final "prove it" year plus Knox, Kincaid, & Cook for multiple years

 

vs

 

Praying for Gabe to finally be the #2 we all hoped for along with giving us a hometown discount 

 

...

 

choice seems obvious...

 

Especially when you consider all the draft picks we still have next year. Who's to say we also don't just trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr. as Diggs and Nuke settle into their 30s?

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Not gonna be able to trade up into the Top 5 when we're picking at 32 😉

 

  On 5/29/2023 at 4:05 AM, Einstein said:

 

Great point.

 

We have now traded both the Mahomes pick, and the Jefferson pick.

 

We traded the picks that became the best QB in the league, and the best WR in the league.

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Terrible f'n luck. No one could have foreseen either happening. 

 

Luckily, the Mahomes move (plus moving Cordy Glenn) facilitated us getting Josh, Tre, and Edmunds (who we got 5 years out of) and Jefferson got us Diggs. 

 

So it still worked out fairly comparable.

Edited May 29, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[TheWeatherMan]

  On 5/29/2023 at 4:05 AM, Einstein said:

 

Great point.

 

We have now traded both the Mahomes pick, and the Jefferson pick.

 

We traded the picks that became the best QB in the league, and the best WR in the league.

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Best WR in the league is disputable, Mahomes at QB isn’t.  

Edited May 29, 2023 by TheWeatherMan

[UKBillFan]

  On 5/29/2023 at 4:05 AM, Einstein said:

 

Great point.

 

We have now traded both the Mahomes pick, and the Jefferson pick.

 

We traded the picks that became the best QB in the league, and the best WR in the league.

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But probably the right approach at the time. I'd love to switch offences/schemes for a game and see if Mahomes could do any more than Josh with what he's given - especially without the Kelce safety blanket and Reid play calling. Not saying he isn't a world class QB but he's got a world class team. 

 

Diggs for Jefferson was also probably the right call, even in hindsight. At that point of time, the Bills needed experience at WR, someone to help Josh along. We say 'Mahomes wouldn't have done as well at Orchard Park', but I don't think Jefferson would have done as well here either.as number one WR. Now Diggs AND Jefferson, on the other hand...

[BananaB]

  On 5/29/2023 at 4:05 AM, Einstein said:

 

Great point.

 

We have now traded both the Mahomes pick, and the Jefferson pick.

 

We traded the picks that became the best QB in the league, and the best WR in the league.

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Allen is the best QB in football. There isn’t a player in the game that is asked to do more for his team than him. They got drafted to completely opposite situations and KC was by far the more appealing place to land. 

[Doc]

  On 5/29/2023 at 11:14 AM, BananaB said:

Allen is the best QB in football. There isn’t a player in the game that is asked to do more for his team than him. They got drafted to completely opposite situations and KC was by far the more appealing place to land. 

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I'll hold off on saying who is the best, but I'm more than fine taking Josh over Mahomes and I doubt the Bills would have drafted Jefferson.  But give me Reid and Spagnuolo any day.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Doc

[MasterStrategist]

  On 5/29/2023 at 3:52 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What do YOU actually envision the long term cap consequences being if they sign Hopkins?    

 

As a professional numbers person myself..........I'm quite certain the the consequence may be just one very silent offseason where they lose a good young player in UFA and have to cut some veteran defenders they'd prefer not to..........followed by a year with a bottom third of the league defense and the Bills offense having to win a lot of shootouts.........and then the following offseason being back in the market for free agents and balancing the roster again.

 

There isn't going to be any big roster teardown that isn't going to have to come ANYWAY.    In the next few years Von, Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, White, Dawkins, Morse, Milano and Taron are all going to age out most likely.     They started this ball rolling when they traded the chance at a 21-22 year old rookie WR to get Stefon Diggs.  It accelerated their development but sure.......that comes at a cost.   You aren't going to get 10 years out of a 26-27 year old acquisition.  

 

If they draft smartly and do what it takes to make Josh Allen look like a $50M QB year-in-and-out.........which is easier to pull off when he has a Lombardi trophy to his name...........then they will have access to very good replacement personnel at team friendly prices.

 

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From one professional number guy to another, I'd agree overall:

1. 1 year in the future, likely the Groot or Elam draft class, we will be heavily hampered cap-wise.  This will almost certainly lead to us being unable to sign 1 or 2 of the following long term: Groot, Elam, Cook, or Spencer Brown.

 

2. Likely sacrifices our competitive balance for 1-2 years total.  Not a horrible team, but not going to be top 3 in the AFC, unless Beane crushes the draft these years. Josh Allen and a few others, while trying to find 1-3 new core players via draft

 

3. Short term, Davis and Ed gone after this year.  Which might happen regardless, depends how you view this loss (both are polarizing to fans).  Beane has stated his thoughts on both guys, unprovoked by questions on either player, when discussing teams longer term plans

 

This is what reality will be, and boils down to whether Beane thinks Dhop is worth that. 

 

Alternatively, we have more flexibility with signing our own guys.  Who at this point, there isn't a "sure fire" we MUST resign guy, out of all the players mentioned above. 

 

But, it comes with the ability to do so if someone makes a big improvement and/or gives flexibility to add another piece (ie Dhop at a different position next season).  

 

I won't speak for all posters who have cap concerns with signing Dhop.  But that's how I view it, and analyze the pros/cons of the teams immediate and future competitive balance.

[Chaos]

  On 5/29/2023 at 2:41 AM, NewEra said:

Not for me. My family being comfortable is the most important thing in my life.  I turn down more lucrative jobs on the reg.  Probably 2-3 jobs a year on average.  
 

 

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Ah, so you are the USA. 

[John from Riverside]

  On 5/29/2023 at 3:52 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What do YOU actually envision the long term cap consequences being if they sign Hopkins?    

 

As a professional numbers person myself..........I'm quite certain the the consequence may be just one very silent offseason where they lose a good young player in UFA and have to cut some veteran defenders they'd prefer not to..........followed by a year with a bottom third of the league defense and the Bills offense having to win a lot of shootouts.........and then the following offseason being back in the market for free agents and balancing the roster again.

 

There isn't going to be any big roster teardown that isn't going to have to come ANYWAY.    In the next few years Von, Diggs, Hyde, Poyer, White, Dawkins, Morse, Milano and Taron are all going to age out most likely.     They started this ball rolling when they traded the chance at a 21-22 year old rookie WR to get Stefon Diggs.  It accelerated their development but sure.......that comes at a cost.   You aren't going to get 10 years out of a 26-27 year old acquisition.  

 

If they draft smartly and do what it takes to make Josh Allen look like a $50M QB year-in-and-out.........which is easier to pull off when he has a Lombardi trophy to his name...........then they will have access to very good replacement personnel at team friendly prices.

 

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I agree with this reinforcements for the defense are going to have to come through the draft. We are going to need guys like say Dorian Williams to hit.

[NewEra]

  On 5/29/2023 at 12:31 PM, Chaos said:

Ah, so you are the USA. 

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And Josh allen never running is the right answer

[4merper4mer]

  On 5/29/2023 at 3:52 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

 

If they draft smartly and do what it takes to make Josh Allen look like a $50M QB year-in-and-out.........which is easier to pull off when he has a Lombardi trophy to his name...........then they will have access to very good replacement personnel at team friendly prices.

 

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Can you name one team that shows this theory to be true?  
 

The Rams and Bucs are done with Super Bowls for a while.  Unless I’m missing something that leaves the Chiefs and I’m not sure they have used this formula so far.  Which big name “superstar” have they signed and which team friendly deals have magically poured in?  They have lost a few players as well.  At this point it doesn’t appear Hopkins is willing to be team friendly to either the Bills or Chiefs.

 

The Bills are a team that paid big money to a superstar just last year and it did not pay off.  It is hard to quantify what the opportunity cost has been or will be.  

[JaCrispy]

  On 5/29/2023 at 12:28 PM, MasterStrategist said:

From one professional number guy to another, I'd agree overall:

1. 1 year in the future, likely the Groot or Elam draft class, we will be heavily hampered cap-wise.  This will almost certainly lead to us being unable to sign 1 or 2 of the following long term: Groot, Elam, Cook, or Spencer Brown.

 

2. Likely sacrifices our competitive balance for 1-2 years total.  Not a horrible team, but not going to be top 3 in the AFC, unless Beane crushes the draft these years. Josh Allen and a few others, while trying to find 1-3 new core players via draft

 

3. Short term, Davis and Ed gone after this year.  Which might happen regardless, depends how you view this loss (both are polarizing to fans).  Beane has stated his thoughts on both guys, unprovoked by questions on either player, when discussing teams longer term plans

 

This is what reality will be, and boils down to whether Beane thinks Dhop is worth that. 

 

Alternatively, we have more flexibility with signing our own guys.  Who at this point, there isn't a "sure fire" we MUST resign guy, out of all the players mentioned above. 

 

But, it comes with the ability to do so if someone makes a big improvement and/or gives flexibility to add another piece (ie Dhop at a different position next season).  

 

I won't speak for all posters who have cap concerns with signing Dhop.  But that's how I view it, and analyze the pros/cons of the teams immediate and future competitive balance.

Expand  

I go back to a wise saying- “A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush”.

 

Basically, if you have a shot at a top player, during a time that you are a superbowl contender, you take it…👍

[TheWeatherMan]

  On 5/29/2023 at 2:41 AM, NewEra said:

Not for me. My family being comfortable is the most important thing in my life.  I turn down more lucrative jobs on the reg.  Probably 2-3 jobs a year on average.  
 

 

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Same here, and I’m not a fan of high level business meetings.  

[78thealltimegreat]

  On 5/28/2023 at 11:09 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:

No. Fraud. He just clipped it from an old tweet. “Kyle’s Treats” is a Clown

 

 

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How about Espns other NFL reporter then 

 

[4merper4mer]

  On 5/29/2023 at 1:07 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

How about Espns other NFL reporter then 

 

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How many times do these dudes need to make up crap before people realize they make up crap.

 

After Hopkins takes the three extra dollars the Bears or whoever offer, if some other guy becomes available ESPN will clickbait the Bills/Chiefs arms race again.

[UKBillFan]

My issue isn't necessarily getting Hopkins; it's that the Bills still lack a 1B or number 2 option at wide receiver. Yes, maybe someone could come through, but having an experience body who can draw attention away from Diggs and give Josh another option will go along way, unless Dorsey can get Josh to use the TEs effectively.

[78thealltimegreat]

  On 5/29/2023 at 1:11 PM, 4merper4mer said:

How many times do these dudes need to make up crap before people realize they make up crap.

 

After Hopkins takes the three extra dollars the Bears or whoever offer, if some other guy becomes available ESPN will clickbait the Bills/Chiefs arms race again.

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Setting yourself up for disappointment huh 

[SCBills]

I’m fully prepared to not get Hop, and if we don’t, whatever… but isn’t Jeremy Fowler one of the few people on ESPN that’s not just throwing stuff against the wall to see if it sticks?

[Einstein]

  On 5/29/2023 at 11:04 AM, UKBillFan said:

Diggs for Jefferson was also probably the right call, even in hindsight. At that point of time, the Bills needed experience at WR

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Come on, that’s just ridiculous.

 

Jefferson was elite even in his rookie season, and he will likely be good for another 4-5 years after Diggs is out of the NFL (he is 5 years younger).

It’s not like Diggs taught Allen to be a QB. He simply gave Allen a legit WR for the first time in his career and came during a pivotal year 3. Jefferson would have done the same in my opinion.

[4merper4mer]

  On 5/29/2023 at 1:59 PM, Einstein said:

 

Come on, that’s just ridiculous.

 

Jefferson was elite even in his rookie season, and he will likely be good for another 4-5 years after Diggs is out of the NFL (he is 5 years younger).

It’s not like Diggs taught Allen to be a QB. He simply gave Allen a legit WR for the first time in his career and came during a pivotal year 3. Jefferson would have done the same in my opinion.

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You’re being a jerk on purpose.  Ruggs Jeudy Lamb and Reagor all went before Jefferson and Aiyuk went right after,  That’s quite a spectrum of results and you’ve cherry picked quite by assuming Jefferson was some sort of given that was universally understood.