Josh Allen is number 1

[Billy Claude]

Here is the context for 2022 -- Josh Allen led the league with 19 turnovers.  The turnovers break down as follows:

 

12 occurred when the Bills were leading -- 5 of those when the Bills were leading by more than 8 points. but one was on a 4th and goal up 27-17 against the Vikings.

4 occurred when the game was tied,  three when the score was 0-0 in the first quarter, the other was 14-14 in the 2nd quarter in game 18 against New England.

3 occurred when the Bills were trailing,  One was the last play in overtime against the Vikings, one was down 21-26 early in the 4th quarter in the 2nd game against Miami and the last was down 6-7 in the 2nd quarter against Chicago.

 

It is not unexpected that very few of Allen's turnovers occurred when  trailing since the Bills rarely trailed last year.   It is simply not true that the turnovers were because he was leading comebacks which seemingly a lot of people are implying in this thread. Out of the 19 turnovers only three (Vikings twice and Dolphins) were in situations where he needed to play hero ball.

 

Again, no one expects or wants Allen to have zero turnovers but leading the league in turnovers is not a good thing and I don't see any reason why he can't cut this number by 25%,  Nor can all the blame be placed on Dorsey, the o-lines or the receivers.  The guy making the final decision on when and where to throw the ball has to be somewhat responsible.

 

This is not really an Allen thing,  I just dislike it in general when people dismiss data simply because it doesn't agree with their opinion.  I guarantee if Burrow or Jackson led the league in turnovers, no one on this board would be saying the data was being taken out of context.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Billy Claude

[TheBrownBear]

On 5/25/2023 at 6:14 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

Haven't read through the thread, but how many of those were one score wins?  I'm guessing he's batting over .500.  Josh is always going to be more of a high-risk/high-reward guy and I'm okay with that.

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

Again, no one expects or wants Allen to have zero turnovers but leading the league in turnovers is not a good thing and I don't see any reason why he can't cut this number by 25%,  Nor can all the blame be placed on Dorsey, the o-lines or the receivers.  The guy making the final decision on when and where to throw the ball has to be somewhat responsible.

Agree with you there.  Josh definitely had some head scratchers the past two years where he seemingly threw it to an opponent who was all by themselves (Sauce Gardner and Jaire Alexander picks come to mind).

Edited May 26, 2023 by TheBrownBear

[Billy Claude]

21 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Haven't read through the thread, but how many of those were one score wins?  I'm guessing he's batting over .500.  Josh is always going to be more of a high-risk/high-reward guy and I'm okay with that.

Agree with you there.  Josh definitely had some head scratchers the past two years where he seemingly threw it to an opponent who was all by themselves (Sauce Gardner and Jaire Alexander picks come to mind).

 

 

I think someone upthread said Allen won 60% of one score games over the time range given. This is actually not that good.  Someone (perhaps Einstein?) did a deep data dive last offseason and if I remembered right, most top teams win about 70% of their one score games (so the Bills at 6-3 were in that ballpark last year) and in fact, Mahomes/Reid won about 75% of their one score games over the previous 3 or 4 years.  That study, of course, was meant to be an attack on McDermott.

 

 

[BigDingus]

On 5/25/2023 at 8:14 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

 

Actually not surprised. I know it sucks to admit, but he didn't develop the turnover reputation for nothing. 

 

It's also why analysts (and haters) like to group his TOTAL fumble numbers with his actual fumbles lost. He's been fortunate to have so many recovered by teammates considering how often he's dropped the ball. 

[par73]

Three games come to mind where Allen failed at the end in a loss-- and two were not turnovers. First, against Tennessee-- where he slipped and fell on his own on the goal line trying to score winning TD. Second-- fumbled the ball on his own goal line vs. Minnesota (just trying to kneel out the clock). 3rd-- bounce pass last year vs. Miami when throwing for what would have been the winning TD.

Too many miscues at the end of games-- when the franchise QB should be at his best. If he wants to improve, this is a good area to start.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, par73 said:

Three games come to mind where Allen failed at the end in a loss-- and two were not turnovers. First, against Tennessee-- where he slipped and fell on his own on the goal line trying to score winning TD. Second-- fumbled the ball on his own goal line vs. Minnesota (just trying to kneel out the clock). 3rd-- bounce pass last year vs. Miami when throwing for what would have been the winning TD.

Too many miscues at the end of games-- when the franchise QB should be at his best. If he wants to improve, this is a good area to start.

The final INT vs Minnesota was a terrible read and decision by Allen. 

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

Again, no one expects or wants Allen to have zero turnovers but leading the league in turnovers is not a good thing and I don't see any reason why he can't cut this number by 25%,  Nor can all the blame be placed on Dorsey, the o-lines or the receivers.  The guy making the final decision on when and where to throw the ball has to be somewhat responsible.

 

Is this true on the fumbles?

 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, par73 said:

Three games come to mind where Allen failed at the end in a loss-- and two were not turnovers. First, against Tennessee-- where he slipped and fell on his own on the goal line trying to score winning TD. Second-- fumbled the ball on his own goal line vs. Minnesota (just trying to kneel out the clock). 3rd-- bounce pass last year vs. Miami when throwing for what would have been the winning TD.

Too many miscues at the end of games-- when the franchise QB should be at his best. If he wants to improve, this is a good area to start.

I disagree 100%. 

 

* Against TN, Allen slipped in part because the Bills left tackle got blown up at the snap

 

*  It was impossible for Allen to have taken a knee against the Vikings given where the ball was placed.  Taking a knee would have resulted in a safety.  The Bills had to execute a tricky QB sneak from the one inch line into the teeth of a Vikings defense that had committed 100% to stop the sneak. 

 

*  Allen was one of only two offensive players to not miss a down against the Dolphins under severe heat conditions.  That the Bills amassed over 500 yards often playing without multiple offensive starters was a testament to Allen's elite level of play.  He missed one pass, BFD.  It happens.

 

And if you're going to site to many miscues at the end of games how about at the end of the KC playoff game in 2022 or the end of the KC regular season game in 2022?  Or how about the end of the Ravens game in 2022?  Or how about the end of the 2nd Dolphins game in 2022? Or how abut the end of the Lions game on Thanksgiving?  That's 5 games in less then 12 months.

 

I wonder why so many false negative narratives about Allen keep popping up on a Bills message board?

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

Actually not surprised. I know it sucks to admit, but he didn't develop the turnover reputation for nothing. 

 

It's also why analysts (and haters) like to group his TOTAL fumble numbers with his actual fumbles lost. He's been fortunate to have so many recovered by teammates considering how often he's dropped the ball. 

Part of that includes fumbles that Allen recovers himself because he's a dog

 

Part of that are fumbles that go harmlessly out of bounds

 

Part of that are fumbles that his O linemen recover after they miss a block and are standing around watching Allen get blown up.

 

 

[par73]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I disagree 100%. 

 

* Against TN, Allen slipped in part because the Bills left tackle got blown up at the snap

 

*  It was impossible for Allen to have taken a knee against the Vikings given where the ball was placed.  Taking a knee would have resulted in a safety.  The Bills had to execute a tricky QB sneak from the one inch line into the teeth of a Vikings defense that had committed 100% to stop the sneak. 

 

*  Allen was one of only two offensive players to not miss a down against the Dolphins under severe heat conditions.  That the Bills amassed over 500 yards often playing without multiple offensive starters was a testament to Allen's elite level of play.  He missed one pass, BFD.  It happens.

 

And if you're going to site to many miscues at the end of games how about at the end of the KC playoff game in 2022 or the end of the KC regular season game in 2022?  Or how about the end of the Ravens game in 2022?  Or how about the end of the 2nd Dolphins game in 2022? Or how abut the end of the Lions game on Thanksgiving?  That's 5 games in less then 12 months.

 

I wonder why so many false negative narratives about Allen keep popping up on a Bills message board?

 

 

 

 

Bills up by 4 vs. Minnesota. He fumbled the snap-- there was room to keel if he held the ball (and they were up by four, anyway-- safety  not fatal). He then proceeded to throw an awful pick in OT, which ended the game. Against Tenn.-- he definitely slipped on his own. Will never know what would have happened if he maintained his balance. Against Miami-- he threw a bounce pass to a wide open receiver with the game on the line.

I am not trying to destroy Allen here. Everyone knows he has turnover issues--- and he himself admits he needs to be better.

 

Part of that includes fumbles that Allen recovers himself because he's a dog

 

Part of that are fumbles that go harmlessly out of bounds

 

Part of that are fumbles that his O linemen recover after they miss a block and are standing around watching Allen get blown up.

 

 

 

[Billy Claude]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Is this true on the fumbles?

 

 

I don't understand the point.   No one is saying Allen is responsible for all turnovers.   However, upthread, almost everybody is saying Allen has no responsibility at all, or that the data is missing context because Allen was in a position where he needed to bring the team back and so had to force the play.

 

There's is plenty of blame to go around.  It is not all on the o-line, as many here seem to think.  It is on the o-line, the coaching staff, AND Allen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 5/25/2023 at 9:19 AM, Gregg said:

Bad OL up to this point. One elite level player on offense with him (Diggs) forces Josh to play "hero ball" too much. When it works it's great but when it doesn't then this is what you get. Some of those turnovers Josh had last year had me saying WTF. The game at MetLife when Josh threw that awful pick on the 1st drive of the game. Then the game against GB when he threw another awful pick inside the 5. Josh is a great QB, but he has to clean up this part of his game.

That Pick at the end of the Vikings game last year in OT was horrific. At this point I don’t think he’ll ever totally clean up that part of his game, but it’s what makes him great at the same time so I can live with it. He can certainly cut down on them if Beane can put a better cast on the field so JA doesn’t have to constantly overcompensate . A lot of great QBs have had plenty of WTF moments. Nobody is perfect.