The Beauty Of The NFL - Hope

[corta765]

So pro football focus has a really cool new tool that allows you to run a simulation of any teams season for 2023. It automatically runs the games through their system and gives a record with stats and grade for the year. It is a beta run so it is not perfect as the Bucs went 13-4 in one I ran for them lol. Most of the Bills simulations landed them between 9-8 and 11-6 which feels fair. There were a few oddities like a 5-11 season where Buffalo lost a ton of one score games, but also 13-4 where they won 9 straight and beat CIN-PHI-KC all in one stretch. Its fun and different, I think as they improve the model it will be better.

 

Anyhoo your probably asking what in gods name does this have to do with the NFL. Well as you simulate through the season you can see the games as they shake out and I got me thinking at how the NFLs greatest asset is its ability to sell hope. You can have a team that is 7-8, but many times you see a team does have that sliver of hope as if they win out they can get a wild card birth or a maybe a division crown. Compared to any other sport the NFL excels with teams "being in the hunt" because regularly a team can go from DOA to a division crown or wild card birth.

 

The flipside and the danger the NFL has to consider is its push to expand games and the playoffs. I would say currently the playoff structure is perfect as roughly 43.75% (14 of 32) make the playoffs and it requires some level of playing well outside of an occasional bad division winner. The number of games though I think would be a mistake to go past 17 even though I know they want 18. The beauty that keeps so many fans interest when you have a 6-7 vs 7-6 matchup is the fact every game matters. There is a tipping point we are not far away from where too many more games will drain the max value you see and the impact of wins or losses.

Edited May 24, 2023 by corta765

[RoyBatty is alive]

Why would you tell us what the Bucs simulated record would be on a Bills message board, wouldn't the Bills simulated record be more appropriate here?

 

What keeps fans interest in the NFL is the incredible parity, no other pro sport comes even close.  And if you are really really bad, odds are high you can land a franchise QB in the next draft.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Why would you tell us what the Bucs simulated record would be on a Bills message board, wouldn't the Bills simulated record be more appropriate here?

 

What keeps fans interest in the NFL is the incredible parity, no other pro sport comes even close.  And if you are really really bad, odds are high you can land a franchise QB in the next draft.

 

I have done a ton of simulations for the Bills. They generally fall between 9-9 and 11-6. Some crazy outliers like a 5-11 one with a ton of one score losses but also some 13-4.

 

Ironically the simulation reallyyy likes the Bills over CIN and PHI but does not like us vs NYG, NE, and TB (?).

[PromoTheRobot]

Listened to Boston sports radio today and they were taking about 11-6, beating the Bills twice and winning the AFC East. Talk about hopium.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Listened to Boston sports radio today and they were taking about 11-6, beating the Bills twice and winning the AFC East. Talk about hopium.

I mean, it's not like we never heard that type of stuff during the drought.

[buffaloboyinATL]

it springs eternal...

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

She was great in television's 'The Ghost and Mrs. Muir'.

[Don Otreply]

Hope in one hand…

 

 

 

 

 

😂

[Whites Bay]

Corta, friend, you're triggering "Drought PTSD".  Remembering so many seasons 12-20 years ago when the Bills were (e.g.) 6-7 and "hey, if we win the next two games at home...blah, blah, blah."  We all know what happened.  They never won those two games at home, and we drafted Donte Whitner or James Hardy or Mike Williams or Tucker Mother****er.  Thanks for the memories!  But you're right - it's all about hope, despite the sour mood on this forum.  I'm cautiously optimistic, just as I was during each year of the drought.

[Success]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Listened to Boston sports radio today and they were taking about 11-6, beating the Bills twice and winning the AFC East. Talk about hopium.

 

They dominated almost forever, and no one can ever take that away from them.

 

But, the fun thing for opposing fans is how completely delusional they are now.  An entire generation is cartoonishly entitled.  They pretty much all talk like the Bills are just placeholders for a few years until the Pats return to their "rightful place" on top of the division.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I mean, it's not like we never heard that type of stuff during the drought.

 

It's exactly what it reminded of. "Tom Brady, he ain't that good..."

14 minutes ago, Success said:

 

They dominated almost forever, and no one can ever take that away from them.

 

But, the fun thing for opposing fans is how completely delusional they are now.  An entire generation is cartoonishly entitled.  They pretty much all talk like the Bills are just placeholders for a few years until the Pats return to their "rightful place" on top of the division.

 

 

Same with the Dolphins. They already won the AFC East. Haven't you heard?

 

I hope the Bills absorb all the disrespect. I never liked all the happy talk about being Super Bowl favorites. This team plays better when they are overlooked.

[corta765]

14 hours ago, Whites Bay said:

Corta, friend, you're triggering "Drought PTSD".  Remembering so many seasons 12-20 years ago when the Bills were (e.g.) 6-7 and "hey, if we win the next two games at home...blah, blah, blah."  We all know what happened.  They never won those two games at home, and we drafted Donte Whitner or James Hardy or Mike Williams or Tucker Mother****er.  Thanks for the memories!  But you're right - it's all about hope, despite the sour mood on this forum.  I'm cautiously optimistic, just as I was during each year of the drought.

 

The dumbest/toughest piece of the drought is plenty of teams during that time were 6-7 "just need these three wins" and actually had that happen. Buffalo couldn't even catch that break until 2017.

13 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Same with the Dolphins. They already won the AFC East. Haven't you heard?

 

At least with the Phins when Tua is healthy their offense is super dynamic so I can at least understand some excitement there. If Tua were to play 17 games healthy they 100% can be a threat, but that remains to be seen.

 

The Pats though.... their QB is as exciting as play dough and crossing 21 pts seems like an accomplishment. When they go 5-11 this year it will be glorious. 

[jethro_tull]

A former VP told me that Hope was a dog's name.  But you are right, I had hope for the Bills nearly every off season during the drought years.  

[billykay]

17 hours ago, Success said:

 

They dominated almost forever, and no one can ever take that away from them.

 

But, the fun thing for opposing fans is how completely delusional they are now.  An entire generation is cartoonishly entitled.  They pretty much all talk like the Bills are just placeholders for a few years until the Pats return to their "rightful place" on top of the division.

 

There's a good chance that the Pats could go 0-6 in the AFC East.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

9-8 to 11-6 for the Bills is realistic?

 

this ain't it man

 

[GunnerBill]

It is why the NFL is so popular. When I speak to fellow Brits about their NFL fandom "parity" is the word that comes up the most. The fact that almost any team is one good draft away from being a playoff team and that no matter how bad you are you can believe it gives you a shot at a franchise saviour the next spring. Contrast that with European soccer. 

 

Manchester City have just made it 5 championships in 6 seasons. Bayern Munich have won 10 in a row. 17 of the last 19 titles in Spain have been won by Real Madrid or Barcelona. PSG have won 9 of 11 in France. Since 1964 only 3 seasons in Holland haven't ended with one of their big 3 winning the title. And while Italy has had 3 different Champions in the past 3 years that comes after Juventus won 9 in a row. 

 

In contrast in the last 20 years 20 of the 32 NFL franchises have been to the Superbowl. They haven't all won it, sure. But that is a way to sell hope.

Edited May 25, 2023 by GunnerBill

[corta765]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is why the NFL is so popular. When I speak to fellow Brits about their NFL fandom "parity" is the word that comes up the most. The fact that almost any team is one good draft away from being a playoff team and that no matter how bad you are you can believe it gives you a shot at a franchise saviour the next spring. Contrast that with European soccer. 

 

Manchester City have just made it 5 championships in 6 seasons. Bayern Munich have won 10 in a row. 17 of the last 19 titles in Spain have been won by Real Madrid or Barcelona. PSG have won 9 of 11 in France. Since 1964 only 3 seasons in Holland haven't ended with one of their big 3 winning the title. And while Italy has had 3 different Champions in the past 3 years that comes after Juventus won 9 in a row. 

 

In contrast in the last 20 years 20 of the 32 NFL franchises have been to the Superbowl. They haven't all won it, sure. But that is a way to sell hope.

 

Even just the conference title game I think its like DAL-WSH-DET-CLE-HOU as the only teams in the past 25 years or something who haven't made one and DAL/WSH long term have a ton of history. The only kind of guarantee in the NFL is if you have a franchise QB it gives you a much longer leash to and period where you could win. Even so Brees/Rodgers each got one SB and never have gotten back and outside of Brady going to 3 SBs with a guy seems to be the max most of the time.

 

Bill Barnwell had a piece once about trading QBs before they end their rookie contract even if they are good using Goff as the example at the time as he had two pro bowl caliber seasons, made a SB, but was due a big contract. The general thesis was what if you could move him for more assets while keeping the team you had built around him instead of paying the QB which overtime removes the talent you build. Right now the floor still isn't high enough in QB play to do that, but it is a really interesting argument and if the floor of QB play improves where they can be more interchangeable the parity would only flourish more.

[Billy Claude]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It is why the NFL is so popular. When I speak to fellow Brits about their NFL fandom "parity" is the word that comes up the most. The fact that almost any team is one good draft away from being a playoff team and that no matter how bad you are you can believe it gives you a shot at a franchise saviour the next spring. Contrast that with European soccer. 

 

Manchester City have just made it 5 championships in 6 seasons. Bayern Munich have won 10 in a row. 17 of the last 19 titles in Spain have been won by Real Madrid or Barcelona. PSG have won 9 of 11 in France. Since 1964 only 3 seasons in Holland haven't ended with one of their big 3 winning the title. And while Italy has had 3 different Champions in the past 3 years that comes after Juventus won 9 in a row. 

 

In contrast in the last 20 years 20 of the 32 NFL franchises have been to the Superbowl. They haven't all won it, sure. But that is a way to sell hope.

 

 

At least the premier league is competitive even when Man City wins as usual.   

 

I have a very hard time understanding how people can follow the Bundesliga where the season is just a prep for Bayern for the Champions league.   Is the once in a decade win by Dortmund (such as maybe this season) enough to keep people interested?  Its even worse in Ligue 1 where a bad season for PSG means clinch with three games left instead of six games left. 

 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

At least the premier league is competitive even when Man City wins as usual.   

 

I have a very hard time understanding how people can follow the Bundesliga where the season is just a prep for Bayern for the Champions league.   Is the once in a decade win by Dortmund (such as maybe this season) enough to keep people interested?  Its even worse in Ligue 1 where a bad season for PSG means clinch with three games left instead of six games left. 

 

 

Yea City have only romped away with 2 of their 5. Liverpool have twice taken them to the end and Arsenal this year to the penultimate weekend. But still it is a concern. I mean maybe if they ever actually play by the rules the gap will close, but there we are. Their defence to the Premier League charges shows me they are guilty as sin and they are going to try and find a procedural error to get off on a technicality like they did with UEFA. And in David Pannick they have the best barrister in Britain on their side.... if anyone can find a loophole he can.

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, billykay said:

There's a good chance that the Pats could go 0-6 in the AFC East.

If Mac Jones continues to spiral down there is that possibility.  I think Mac Jones is toxic.  He appears to be a whiny crybaby that plays dirty and as a QB, not a good combination.    I guess with a real offensive coordinator in Bill O Brien (who single handed ruined the Texans for a 5 year cellar run) maybe he can bounce back.

 

Pats going 0-6 in the Conference and assuming no real QB, maybe it will be the year for Belichek finally to hang it up, lol, just short of the all time win record.