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2024 Elections - House - Senate - States


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1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

yeah.  "Sheehy is a former Navy SEAL" Devoids the rest of that biased story.

 

and a great example why only partisan people read that rag anymore.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Tommy Callahan
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11 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

This is an R+5 district.

 

No wonder the Republican house members had a meeting yesterday.

Since your on PA. Maybe look at PA voter registration numbers.

 

They divert from the polling big time.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-voter-registration-four-times-higher-than-democrats-in-pennsylvania/ar-AA1oJqOO?ocid=BingNewsSerp

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9 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said:

Since your on PA. Maybe look at PA voter registration numbers.

 

They divert from the polling big time.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-voter-registration-four-times-higher-than-democrats-in-pennsylvania/ar-AA1oJqOO?ocid=BingNewsSerp


New Emerson poll shows Trump +1/+2 in PA.  
 

Always been an interesting juxtaposition in PA polling.   Republicans have, month after month, been killing Dems in voter registrations, PA being at the top of the list.

 

McCormick only down 4 to Casey in the Emerson poll as well … which if he could pull off the upset would be seismic in the Senate/political landscape. 

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2 hours ago, Tommy Callahan said:

Since your on PA. Maybe look at PA voter registration numbers.

 

They divert from the polling big time.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-voter-registration-four-times-higher-than-democrats-in-pennsylvania/ar-AA1oJqOO?ocid=BingNewsSerp


PA has closed primaries. Didn’t you say before how all the democrats are switching to Republican in PA due to that in the assassination thread?

 

Id also think the new Rs are lower propensity voters since it looks like the change in trend of PA registrations corresponds with PA making voter registration occur through the DMV.

Edited by Backintheday544
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24 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:


PA has closed primaries. Didn’t you say before how all the democrats are switching to Republican in PA due to that in the assassination thread?

So the Dems registered as Republicans to vote for Haley.

 

On top of the amount of Dems that voted "other than Biden" in the primaries. 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said:

So the Dems registered as Republicans to vote for Haley.

 

On top of the amount of Dems that voted "other than Biden" in the primaries. 

 

 

 

 


Yea so if you’re looking at pure how many people registered republican, than those numbers are trash if you also argue that Dems are registering as Republican to vote Haley. Check the assassination thread, several people mentioned it’s happening a ton when it came out the shooter was a Republican.

 

This year PA also has automatic registration. So people with no desire to vote are registering as well. Will the automatic registration result in higher turn out? I don’t know. We don’t have stats yet in PA.

 

So we can trust the polls when they ask on if they’re likely to vote. But maybe the automatically registration will change how things get weighted… maybe.

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1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

B-Man in the Assassination thread:

"Also those of us who are adults can readily remember that the DNC encouraged dems to register as Republicans to vote in primaries 

 

As @JaCrispy said , his registration means nothing. 
 

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-crossover-voting-gop-primary-republicans-trump-1850387"

 

Sounds like it's just Dems registering as Rs.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Whichever way folks spin it, there's really no reason to doubt two things:

1.  Barring some exogenous event (e.g., outbreak of a USA shooting war), Harris will win the popular vote by 2 - 5 percent.

2. Barring some exogenous event, the electoral vote outcome is damn near close to a 50/50 proposition.

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7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

Oh good! You got the Trump Team Memo to spread around!

 

Couple reasons this is idiotic 1) you shouldn't rely on polling error to win a race, 2) it doesn't take into account pollsters change methodologies and weighting to make up for past mistakes, 3) it ignores 2022 where all the polls were saying red wave. This forum had a thread that is full of righties tears due to it. 4) just because something happened one year, doesn't mean that issue is present the current year, 5) to doesn't take into account changes in the race from this date to Nov, such as Comey in 2016.

 

An actual interesting poll here:

 

Cook has this race as likely R.

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