Backintheday544 Posted September 17 Posted September 17 12 minutes ago, B-Man said: Probably want to quit on McCormick. No way he’s winning. Right leaning poll that has Trump +2 in PA has McCormick down 4/5. https://insideradvantage.com/pennsylvania-survey-trump-leads-50-48-casey-ahead-of-mccormick-by-four-points/ If he needs a Trump +2 to still be losing by 4/5 points, he would need a huge change to have any chance. 1
Tommy Callahan Posted September 17 Posted September 17 14 minutes ago, B-Man said: But abortion and orange man bad 1 1
The Frankish Reich Posted September 17 Posted September 17 And with the round of good pollsters showing Harris roughly +4, wait for Nate Silver's model to show her with at least even odds of winning. Followed by all our Trumpies turning on their best buddy Nate again. I spoke too soon. Silver's latest update. tl;dr = basically a toss-up in the electoral college, Harris with a significant uptick in national polling post-debate. https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-is-gaining-in-post-debate
Backintheday544 Posted September 17 Posted September 17 (edited) 538 has Harris with net positive favorability for the first time: Kamala Harris at +0.1 (first time entering the positive since July 2021) Donald Trump at -9.9 Tim Walz at +3.8 JD Vance at -10.8 Thats a huge difference to 2016 where Hilary polled well but was a net unfavorable around 10. Edited September 17 by Backintheday544
B-Man Posted September 18 Author Posted September 18 My relatives in Las Vegas report the same thing. 1
Backintheday544 Posted September 19 Posted September 19 Sources with direct knowledge have spoken with Carolina Journal on the condition of anonymity and said that Robinson is under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor’s race due to the nature of the story, which they say involves activity on adult websites in 2000s https://www.carolinajournal.com/robinson-under-pressure-to-withdraw-from-gubernatorial-race/ It’s like Republicans just want Dems to win. 1
Backintheday544 Posted September 20 Posted September 20 (edited) Bad news for Republicans. Last special election before Nov and we got a +7 shift to Dem from last election https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/donald-payne-jr-seat-in-congress-lamonica-mciver/ Edited September 20 by Backintheday544
Coffeesforclosers Posted September 20 Posted September 20 Ted Cruz is a scumbag and a coward and the Senate is better off without him. Maybe he can petition King Charles III and have his Canadian citizenship restored? Or would he have to ask Justin Trudeau? 1
SCBills Posted September 20 Posted September 20 This time a few years ago, polling came out in South Carolina that had Jaime Harrison tied with Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham won in a landslide. Cruz/Allred feels similar. 1
Coffeesforclosers Posted September 20 Posted September 20 14 minutes ago, SCBills said: This time a few years ago, polling came out in South Carolina that had Jaime Harrison tied with Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham won in a landslide. Cruz/Allred feels similar. Ah well. I can still hope.
Backintheday544 Posted September 20 Posted September 20 41 minutes ago, SCBills said: This time a few years ago, polling came out in South Carolina that had Jaime Harrison tied with Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham won in a landslide. Cruz/Allred feels similar. Main difference here is Cruz is unliked by everyone. Graham I don’t believe ever had a really negative approval rating from the right. Dont forget in 2018 when Crux had to run, Cruz beat Beto by only 200,000 votes. He hasn’t gotten more popular. Graham went from +16 before the Harrison election in 2014.
SCBills Posted September 20 Posted September 20 1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said: Main difference here is Cruz is unliked by everyone. Graham I don’t believe ever had a really negative approval rating from the right. Dont forget in 2018 when Crux had to run, Cruz beat Beto by only 200,000 votes. He hasn’t gotten more popular. Graham went from +16 before the Harrison election in 2014. I spend half my week in South Carolina. Graham had very similar negatives to Cruz. He’s far less popular in the state than Tim Scott and this was around the time of the Lincoln Project ascending, where they came into the state and ran ads nonstop posing as Republicans against Graham. Also, Harrison was far better funded & backed than Allred, who has been begging the DNC to help him .. indicating they, themselves, don’t view it as a winnable race. 2
RiotAct Posted September 23 Posted September 23 On 9/19/2024 at 8:06 AM, Tommy Callahan said: Do they have the authority oh noes! 1
B-Man Posted September 25 Author Posted September 25 Hopes of a Democratic Senate Majority Next Year Are Hanging by a Thread. On the menu today: You can find a lot of left-of-center talking heads and writers promoting long-shot Democratic Senate challengers in Texas, Florida, and Nebraska. But the better measure of Democrats’ ambitions and expectations is where they’re spending their money. Meanwhile, what’s new with Lady Gaga’s concert-tour bus driver — trust me, this ties into the Pennsylvania Senate race — and further evidence that Tim Walz is doing Kamala Harris no real favors in his home state. The Approaching GOP Senate Thirty-eight Republican senators are not up for reelection this year. Eleven more Republicans either look like safe bets for Senate reelection or are running for open seats in deep-red states such as Utah and Indiana. https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/hopes-of-a-democratic-senate-majority-next-year-are-hanging-by-a-thread/ . 1
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