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2024 Elections - House - Senate - States


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12 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 


Probably want to quit on McCormick. No way he’s winning.

 

Right leaning poll that has Trump +2 in PA has McCormick down 4/5.

 

https://insideradvantage.com/pennsylvania-survey-trump-leads-50-48-casey-ahead-of-mccormick-by-four-points/
 

If he needs a Trump +2 to still be losing by 4/5 points, he would need a huge change to have any chance.

 

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And with the round of good pollsters showing Harris roughly +4, wait for Nate Silver's model to show her with at least even odds of winning.

Followed by all our Trumpies turning on their best buddy Nate again.

I spoke too soon.

Silver's latest update. tl;dr = basically a toss-up in the electoral college, Harris with a significant uptick in national polling post-debate.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-is-gaining-in-post-debate

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538 has Harris with net positive favorability for the first time:

 

Kamala Harris at +0.1 (first time entering the positive since July 2021)

Donald Trump at -9.9

Tim Walz at +3.8

JD Vance at -10.8

 

 

Thats a huge difference to 2016 where Hilary polled well but was a net unfavorable around 10.

Edited by Backintheday544
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Sources with direct knowledge have spoken with Carolina Journal on the condition of anonymity and said that Robinson is under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor’s race due to the nature of the story, which they say involves activity on adult websites in 2000s
 

 

https://www.carolinajournal.com/robinson-under-pressure-to-withdraw-from-gubernatorial-race/

It’s like Republicans just want Dems to win.

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41 minutes ago, SCBills said:

This time a few years ago, polling came out in South Carolina that had Jaime Harrison tied with Lindsey Graham.

 

Lindsey Graham won in a landslide.

 

Cruz/Allred feels similar. 


Main difference here is Cruz is unliked by everyone. Graham I don’t believe ever had a really negative approval rating from the right.

 

Dont forget in 2018 when Crux had to run, Cruz beat Beto by only 200,000 votes. He hasn’t gotten more popular.

 

Graham went from +16 before the Harrison election in 2014.

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1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said:


Main difference here is Cruz is unliked by everyone. Graham I don’t believe ever had a really negative approval rating from the right.

 

Dont forget in 2018 when Crux had to run, Cruz beat Beto by only 200,000 votes. He hasn’t gotten more popular.

 

Graham went from +16 before the Harrison election in 2014.


I spend half my week in South Carolina.  Graham had very similar negatives to Cruz.  He’s far less popular in the state than Tim Scott and this was around the time of the Lincoln Project ascending, where they came into the state and ran ads nonstop posing as Republicans against Graham.   Also, Harrison was far better funded & backed than Allred, who has been begging the DNC to help him .. indicating they, themselves, don’t view it as a winnable race. 

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