2024 Elections - House - Senate - States

[B-Man]

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

Not 2024, but good news.

 

 

 

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears Makes Her Next Move and It's Big

By Susie Moore

 

 

Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has fast become a favorite of Republicans and conservatives since her 2021 victory in Old Dominion alongside Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares. With her no-nonsense approach and her steadfast commitment to conservative ideals, Earle-Sears has endeared herself to the political right.

 

Now, Earle-Sears is taking the next big step and throwing her hat into the 2025 Virginia governor's race.

 

Since Virginia's Constitution prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms, Youngkin is ineligible to run in 2025.

 

On Wednesday, Earle-Sears filed paperwork to run for the commonwealth's top spot. 

 

https://redstate.com/smoosieq/2024/09/05/virginia-lt-gov-winsome-earle-sears-makes-her-next-move-and-its-big-n2178942

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

New Poll is Good News for Senate Republicans

by John Sexton

 

The Democrats' razor thin control of the Senate is not looking very solid at this point.

 

The latest good news for Senate Republicans comes in the form of an AARP poll out of Montana which shows Republican candidate Tim Sheehy leading Democrat Jon Tester by 8 points. Vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester trails his GOP opponent by 8 points in a new independent poll of Montana’s Senate race — a result that could very well tip control of the Senate to Republicans.

 

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/09/06/new-poll-is-good-news-for-senate-republicans-n3794141

 

 

.

[Backintheday544]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

New Poll is Good News for Senate Republicans

by John Sexton

 

The Democrats' razor thin control of the Senate is not looking very solid at this point.

 

The latest good news for Senate Republicans comes in the form of an AARP poll out of Montana which shows Republican candidate Tim Sheehy leading Democrat Jon Tester by 8 points. Vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester trails his GOP opponent by 8 points in a new independent poll of Montana’s Senate race — a result that could very well tip control of the Senate to Republicans.

 

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/09/06/new-poll-is-good-news-for-senate-republicans-n3794141

 

 

.

 

Florida is also in play now with polls showing them almost tied:

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4864690-florida-senate-race-poll-rick-scott/amp/
 

 

[Backintheday544]

 

[The Frankish Reich]

On 9/5/2024 at 10:01 AM, B-Man said:

 

 

Not 2024, but good news.

 

 

 

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears Makes Her Next Move and It's Big

By Susie Moore

 

 

Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has fast become a favorite of Republicans and conservatives since her 2021 victory in Old Dominion alongside Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares. With her no-nonsense approach and her steadfast commitment to conservative ideals, Earle-Sears has endeared herself to the political right.

 

Now, Earle-Sears is taking the next big step and throwing her hat into the 2025 Virginia governor's race.

 

Since Virginia's Constitution prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms, Youngkin is ineligible to run in 2025.

 

On Wednesday, Earle-Sears filed paperwork to run for the commonwealth's top spot. 

 

https://redstate.com/smoosieq/2024/09/05/virginia-lt-gov-winsome-earle-sears-makes-her-next-move-and-its-big-n2178942

 

 

Winsome is the New Demure!

[B-Man]

 

 

Senator Joe Manchin endorses former Governor Larry Hogan in Maryland Senate Race

 

 

“Forget about being a Democrat or Republican,” said Manchin. “Larry Hogan is just the right person with the right attitude for the job. He’s not afraid to speak against your party and he won’t be controlled by any party or any type of ideology.”

 

An August Gonzales Research poll shows Hogan trailing behind his Democratic rival, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.

 

https://www.dcnewsnow.com/news/local-news/maryland/washington-county/senator-joe-manchin-endorses-former-governor-larry-hogan-in-maryland-senate-race/

 

.

[B-Man]

 

 

Is Minnesota In Play?

By John Hinderaker

 

During the last few months, I have been asked by numerous friends across the country whether Minnesota is in play. Whether, in other words, Donald Trump might actually carry the state.

 

My answer has always been No. Trump is beloved in rural Minnesota, as in the countryside generally, but he is deeply unpopular in the Twin Cities suburbs, the main population center of our state, and, as in many states, home to most of the swing districts. Twin Cities suburban women, in particular–some would say, the classic wine moms–have been strongly anti-Trump.

 

But something seems to be going on here. One of our local television stations polled some weeks ago and found Kamala Harris with a ten point lead. Then, after Governor Tim Walz was announced as Harris’s running mate, they polled again. This time, Harris’s lead had dwindled to five points. Maybe a statistical fluke, but certainly not a ringing endorsement of her choice of our governor for vice president.

 

Now, the left-wing MinnPost has a poll that shows Harris with a narrow four-point lead, 48%-44%.

 

The breakdown is interesting. Harris of course has a huge lead in the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Trump dominates in Greater Minnesota. But:

 

Harris secured a substantial majority of the vote (73% to Trump’s 21%) in Minneapolis and St. Paul, but the candidates are virtually tied in the seven-county metro area excluding Minneapolis and St. Paul. Trump had a more dominant lead (28 percentage points) in Greater Minnesota.

 

If Trump can run anywhere near even in the Twin Cities suburbs, the election in Minnesota will be close.

 

My point here is not to predict that Trump will carry Minnesota. I still don’t think he will. No Republican presidential candidate has carried Minnesota since Nixon in 1972, and no Republican candidate for any office has won statewide since 2006.

 

But if Trump runs close here, and if even the Twin Cities suburbs are open to his message, there are a number of other states that should fall into his column.

 

It is also notable that Tim Walz’s presence on the Democratic ticket has done Harris zero good, even in Walz’s home state. If Democrats thought they could sell Walz in rural America as a small-town “moderate” and a veteran, that hope has evidently fizzled.

 

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/09/is-minnesota-in-play.php

[B-Man]

 

 

Could Kamala Harris Have an 'Uncommitted' Problem in Michigan?

By Becky Noble

 

A quick look at battleground state polling for the November presidential election will tell you that the race in those states is a virtual dead heat. Both candidates will need every vote they can get to win those states. Former President Donald Trump might have to work harder in traditionally blue states like Wisconsin and Michigan to win votes. But Vice President Kamala Harris has her own problems in Michigan with the Arab-American community that might just cost her some votes. 

 

The "Uncommitted" movement in Michigan that began during the Michigan Democrat primary to protest the Biden-Harris administration's conducting of the Israel-Hamas war is not all that open to backing Kamala Harris in November. Recently, the Arab-American Anti-Discrimination Committee conference was held in Dearborn. The main topic of conversation turned to whether the Arab-American community would support Harris, and the general feeling was that they would not. It was Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who the crowd seemed to be the most enthusiastic about. Stein had spoken at the conference the night before.

 

The Uncommitted movement was started in Michigan by the "Listen to Michigan" campaign. It quickly became a problem for Joe Biden when the initial goal of the movement was to get 10,000 voters to voice their displeasure at Biden, but that goal was smashed as not just Muslims but other Arab-Americans, younger voters, and far-left progressives joined in, and 10,000 turned into 100,000 voters. In Dearborn alone, the city with the largest Muslim population in the country, Biden lost to the Uncommitted voters 57 percent to 40 percent. 

 

{snip}

 

Can the Uncommitted movement sway enough votes in swing states in the general election? In Minnesota, where Harris' Vice Presidential nominee, Tim Walz, is governor, she is ahead by 5.4 points; they likely would not, even though 46,000 Minnesotans voted uncommitted on Super Tuesday. But in Wisconsin, where she is only up by 1.2 points, and Pennsylvania, where she is only up by one-tenth of a percent, it might be a tempting possibility. While there might not be the concentration of Arab-American and Muslim voters that there is in Michigan, where the numbers are equally close at just 0.7 points, it could be just enough to sway the younger and more progressive voters who might view the Biden-Harris administration as only making concessions to Israel.

 

Kamala Harris may be playing a game of beat-the-clock with the Uncommitted movement. The group had set a deadline of September 15 that they wanted Harris to meet with Palestinian families to discuss an end to the conflict. It is unknown if that deadline has been met.

 

One thing is certain: the Uncommitted movement is gaining steam, and Kamala Harris may be forced to listen before November.

 

https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2024/09/16/could-kamala-harris-have-an-uncommitted-problem-in-michigan-n2179381

 

 

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Could Kamala Harris Have an 'Uncommitted' Problem in Michigan?

By Becky Noble

 

A quick look at battleground state polling for the November presidential election will tell you that the race in those states is a virtual dead heat. Both candidates will need every vote they can get to win those states. Former President Donald Trump might have to work harder in traditionally blue states like Wisconsin and Michigan to win votes. But Vice President Kamala Harris has her own problems in Michigan with the Arab-American community that might just cost her some votes. 

 

The "Uncommitted" movement in Michigan that began during the Michigan Democrat primary to protest the Biden-Harris administration's conducting of the Israel-Hamas war is not all that open to backing Kamala Harris in November. Recently, the Arab-American Anti-Discrimination Committee conference was held in Dearborn. The main topic of conversation turned to whether the Arab-American community would support Harris, and the general feeling was that they would not. It was Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who the crowd seemed to be the most enthusiastic about. Stein had spoken at the conference the night before.

 

The Uncommitted movement was started in Michigan by the "Listen to Michigan" campaign. It quickly became a problem for Joe Biden when the initial goal of the movement was to get 10,000 voters to voice their displeasure at Biden, but that goal was smashed as not just Muslims but other Arab-Americans, younger voters, and far-left progressives joined in, and 10,000 turned into 100,000 voters. In Dearborn alone, the city with the largest Muslim population in the country, Biden lost to the Uncommitted voters 57 percent to 40 percent. 

 

{snip}

 

Can the Uncommitted movement sway enough votes in swing states in the general election? In Minnesota, where Harris' Vice Presidential nominee, Tim Walz, is governor, she is ahead by 5.4 points; they likely would not, even though 46,000 Minnesotans voted uncommitted on Super Tuesday. But in Wisconsin, where she is only up by 1.2 points, and Pennsylvania, where she is only up by one-tenth of a percent, it might be a tempting possibility. While there might not be the concentration of Arab-American and Muslim voters that there is in Michigan, where the numbers are equally close at just 0.7 points, it could be just enough to sway the younger and more progressive voters who might view the Biden-Harris administration as only making concessions to Israel.

 

Kamala Harris may be playing a game of beat-the-clock with the Uncommitted movement. The group had set a deadline of September 15 that they wanted Harris to meet with Palestinian families to discuss an end to the conflict. It is unknown if that deadline has been met.

 

One thing is certain: the Uncommitted movement is gaining steam, and Kamala Harris may be forced to listen before November.

 

https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2024/09/16/could-kamala-harris-have-an-uncommitted-problem-in-michigan-n2179381

 

 

 

 

[Tommy Callahan]

 

15 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

The city I was born in, has changed a lot.  

[Backintheday544]

4 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said:

 

The city I was born in, has changed a lot.  

Nearly 21 million Americans do not have a valid unexpired ID:

 

https://cdce.umd.edu/sites/cdce.umd.edu/files/pubs/Voter ID 2023 survey Key Results Jan 2024 (1).pdf
 

Do you want to disenfranchise them? Do you want to create an illegal poll tax by forcing them to pay for an ID? You most not actually be American.

[Tommy Callahan]

👆👆👆. Moron on levels.  So many talking points. 

 

 

Supports shady packs harvesting and being the witness for no id.  

 

 

 

 

oteRiders, Public Wise, the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE) at the 
University of Maryland, and the Brennan Center for Justice contracted with SSRS, a 
highly regarded survey firm, to obtain a nationally representative sample of the U.S. 
adult citizen population. The sample of 2,386 respondents was drawn from SSRS’s 
probability panel and a random sample of known pre-paid cellular phone numbers. 
Included in the sample are oversamples of 18-24-year-olds, Black respondents, Hispanic 
respondents, Black and Hispanic 18-24-year olds, and individuals with income less than 
$30,000 per year. The survey was fielded 9/12/23 - 10/4/23. All of the results below are 
weighted. Population count estimates are based on data from the US Census.2 A 
summary of the main results follows.

[Backintheday544]

49 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said:

👆👆👆. Moron on levels.  So many talking points. 

 

 

Supports shady packs harvesting and being the witness for no id.  

 

 

 

 

oteRiders, Public Wise, the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (CDCE) at the 
University of Maryland, and the Brennan Center for Justice contracted with SSRS, a 
highly regarded survey firm, to obtain a nationally representative sample of the U.S. 
adult citizen population. The sample of 2,386 respondents was drawn from SSRS’s 
probability panel and a random sample of known pre-paid cellular phone numbers. 
Included in the sample are oversamples of 18-24-year-olds, Black respondents, Hispanic 
respondents, Black and Hispanic 18-24-year olds, and individuals with income less than 
$30,000 per year. The survey was fielded 9/12/23 - 10/4/23. All of the results below are 
weighted. Population count estimates are based on data from the US Census.2 A 
summary of the main results follows.

Oh sorry I forgot that people you don’t like are automatically wrong. Very American of you Comrade.

[Tommy Callahan]

3 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

Oh sorry I forgot that people you don’t like are automatically wrong. Very American of you Comrade.

I'm sorry about your condition.  I included the details in your link that show how bs it is.  

 

Also.  For real.  One can't do anything without ID.  From insurance to rentals and banking. 

 

 

[Backintheday544]

5 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said:

I'm sorry about your condition.  I included the details in your link that show how bs it is.  

 

Also.  For real.  One can't do anything without ID.  From insurance to rentals and banking. 

 

 

You didn’t include anything. You showed who conducted the poll and their sample. Nowhere did you refute their methodology. If you’d like to refuse their methodology go ahead. Until then it looks like you just didn’t like who conducted the poll.

 

That number represents 6 percent of Americans. It’s not far fetched.

 

Here’s other research for you:

Claim 1: Kobach wrongly takes issue with a 2006 Brennan Center study showing 11% of American citizens do not possess government issued photo ID.

In 2006, the Brennan Center published the results of a telephone survey conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation (ORC), an independent market research firm, on the number of voting-age Americans who have government-issued photo ID and proof of citizenship.  11% of all respondents to that survey did not have ready access to government-issued photo ID; the percentages of those without ID were even higher for certain demographic groups.  Kobach summarily dismisses the hard numbers without offering any reason to doubt the Brennan Center and ORC findings, other than that he finds them “implausible.” ORC is a respected, global provider of market research, providing polling and research to  CNN, among many other partners and clients. Mr. Kobach’s intuition is not a substitute for sound research. 

What is more, Kobach fails to note that the Brennan Center’s findings are consistent with every independent study we have identified before and since:

The 2001 Carter-Ford Commission on Election Reform found that between 6–11 percent of voting-age citizens lack driver’s license or alternate state-issued photo ID.  
 

A 2007 Indiana survey found that roughly 13 percent of registered Indiana voters lack an Indiana driver’s license or an alternate Indiana-issued photo ID. 

In a 2009 study in Indiana, Professors Matt Barreto, Stephen Nuño, and Gabriel Sanchez found that election restrictions like voter ID laws have the greatest impact on the elderly, racial and ethnic minorities, immigrants, those with less educational attainment and lower incomes.  The professors found that of the citizen adult population, 81.4% of all white eligible adults had access to a driver’s license, whereas only 55.2% of black eligible adults had the same access.   Indeed, study after study has similarly concluded that burdens to voting have a large and disparate impact on individuals with fewer resources, less education, smaller social networks, and those who are institutionally isolated.   

The 2007 study, Voter ID Requirements and the Disenfranchisement of Latino, Black, and Asian Voters, based on exit polls from the 2006 elections in California, New Mexico, and Washington State, found that minority voters are less likely than whites to be able to present photo identification.  
 

Many citizens who believe they have valid and sufficient photo IDs often do not.  A national survey conducted after the November 2008 election found that 95% of respondents claimed to have a driver’s license, but 16% of those respondents lacked a license that was both current and valid.  So of the of Americans who possess a photo ID, many lack proper identification that would enable to them to vote in elections under the new laws passed in Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, and under legislation pending in many more states.  
 

Additional studies and research findings on voter ID are collected here. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/debunking-misinformation-photo-id

[Commsvet11]

18 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said:

I'm sorry about your condition.  I included the details in your link that show how bs it is.  

 

Also.  For real.  One can't do anything without ID.  From insurance to rentals and banking. 

 

 

Another point it’s a portion of unexpired licenses that have mismatched addresses…….which makes perfect sense for college students and military, a permanent residence as opposed to current residence is used 

[Tommy Callahan]

1 minute ago, Commsvet11 said:

Another point it’s a portion of unexpired licenses that have mismatched addresses…….which makes perfect sense for college students and military, a permanent residence as opposed to current residence is used 

Ironic as one cannot apply for college, the financing for college without an ID.  

 

 

[Commsvet11]

1 minute ago, Tommy Callahan said:

Ironic as one cannot apply for college, the financing for college without an ID.  

 

 

I take back the military ID those get issued and should be valid but yeah that study had to include mismatched addresses otherwise it’s a big nothing. I agree with you, IDs are used for everything and Election Day is known years in advance.

[Backintheday544]

Right wing poll with Harris +3!!! Last poll was Trump +2

 

They had Biden +4 last election.