Should Dion look like this?

[DapperCam]

Camera adds 15 pounds

[JohninMinn.]

On 5/23/2023 at 7:57 PM, Beck Water said:

I get it maybe Spencer Brown is a bit skinny for an OT but Dang!  Do you think the Bills want Dawkins to look like this? 

 

He seems a bit....rotund

 

 

 

He's got his shorts pulled up to his nipples. Tackles are anchored mostly by the junk in their trunk. He's fine.

[mrags]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really not that he's overrated.

 

It's that there's a group of Bills fans who underrate him. They want him to be a top five guy, and he's not. So they constantly carp about him. Constantly. He's been a guy who they have never had to worry about. He has played through injuries and had some real downturns but has always been solid even at his worst. The line has been a concern. But Dion has never been a worry.

 

He's not overpaid. Not underpaid either. If you want a guy who's top ten or twelve, after the rookie contract you have to pay him a lot higher than the 12th best salary. It's just how it works. He's at a high-value position, and that's just what you have to do. He's now 12th highest at AAV, and will fall a bit over the next couple of years. Then if we still want to keep him, which is likely but never sure, they'll have to give him an awful lot of money. It's the way it works. He's been a good deal for the Bills, all the way. Not a bargain but a good deal.

 

As for the picture, it's a mild concern. It's not nothing. But he's always been a guy who looked too big. And people want to ignore this, but there are good pictures and bad pictures. Some make you look big and some make you look small, body position, lighting, the way the clothing falls across the body. He legitimately does look a bit too big. Hard to be sure, and not a major concern right now at all.

 

But it's something to watch.

The bolded part is what gets me. It’s not like this is a one time thing. He’s legitimately gotten worse every season as far as his weight goes. 
 

you’re right. Maybe he has never really been a worry. He isn’t a top 10 guy. Imo, he’s the 2nd best guy on our OL behind Morse (it’s close). But that to me says more about how weak our OL is/has been. 
 

my big concern is that he’s gotten worse year after year as far as his weight/shape coming in. And it seems it’s not getting any better. As people want to talk about how focused Josh is, and how a lot of other players are focused and poised to have breakout years, and here’s Dawkins coming to camp with hidden happy meals in his locker. You say it’s not a concern at all right now, and I say it’s nothing but a concern because it seems to be worse than last year which was worse the year before that. If it’s not a concern now after 3-4 years, when will it be a concern? 
 

[Chandler#81]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Gunner is a pretty reliable poster here so you can question if you’d like but considering his reputation I’d doubt he’s making it up. 

*Hint* Fergy’s messing around. 😉

[Richard Noggin]

Dion Dawkins has always been surprisingly nimble for a big guy, especially when dancing and also when catching TDs. 

 

His RAS is initially supportive of this stance, until we realize it's calculated for an OG instead of an OT...(I snipped an infographic of Dawkins scoring an 8.8 but it's as an OG and it's too large a file to attach for some reason: https://ras.football/2019/12/29/dion-dawkins-ras/).

 

I don't think it's wrong to call attention to a generally shared perception of Dawkins's recently (2022/23) increased BMI. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's really not that he's overrated.

 

It's that there's a group of Bills fans who underrate him. They want him to be a top five guy, and he's not. So they constantly carp about him. Constantly. He's been a guy who they have never had to worry about. He has played through injuries and had some real downturns but has always been solid even at his worst. The line has been a concern. But Dion has never been a worry.

 

He's not overpaid. Not underpaid either. If you want a guy who's top ten or twelve, after the rookie contract you have to pay him a lot higher than the 12th best salary. It's just how it works. He's at a high-value position, and that's just what you have to do. He's now 12th highest at AAV, and will fall a bit over the next couple of years. Then if we still want to keep him, which is likely but never sure, they'll have to give him an awful lot of money. It's the way it works. He's been a good deal for the Bills, all the way. Not a bargain but a good deal.

 

As for the picture, it's a mild concern. It's not nothing. But he's always been a guy who looked too big. And people want to ignore this, but there are good pictures and bad pictures. Some make you look big and some make you look small, body position, lighting, the way the clothing falls across the body. He legitimately does look a bit too big. Hard to be sure, and not a major concern right now at all.

 

But it's something to watch.

 

I say again, he is actually 14th. The Spotrac list for some reason is missing Ronnie Stanley and the Eagles guy. But you are right on the market. You can't say to be the 10th best left tackle "sign a new deal that makes you the 10th best paid left tackle" because they all know there is year to year salary cap inflation. So if you sign for 4 years at the 10th highest AAV by year 4 they will be 20th highest. So you put them top 5 knowing they will quickly fall down the list. I actually think at 14th Dion is a bit of a bargain. Cam Robinson (Jags), DJ Humphries (Cardinals) and Garrett Bolles (Broncos) are all inferior players who are higher in AAV than Dion and Orlando Brown (Bengals) and Kolton Miller (Raiders) are also higher and are at best equivalent level - lots seem to love Miller, I don't. 

 

However, giving Dion another big pay day isn't something I'd be keen to do at this point. Not with the weight fluctuation issues and his inconsistent level of play the past two seasons. That said, our line goes as Dion goes currently. When he is at his best our line looks passable. When he is not it looks a shambles. 

Edited May 25, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Sierra Foothills]

On 5/23/2023 at 8:06 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

Photographically, artificial turf adds girth to the midrift.

 

On 5/24/2023 at 12:37 AM, NI Bills Fan said:

The camera adds 10 lbs... And Dion had just eaten 7 of them before practice.

 

21 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:

The color white adds 10 lbs

 

8 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Camera adds 15 pounds

 

7 hours ago, JohninMinn. said:

He's got his shorts pulled up to his nipples. Tackles are anchored mostly by the junk in their trunk. He's fine.

 

[TheWeatherMan]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I say again, he is actually 14th. The Spotrac list for some reason is missing Ronnie Stanley and the Eagles guy. But you are right on the market. You can't say to be the 10th best left tackle "sign a new deal that makes you the 10th best paid left tackle" because they all know there is year to year salary cap inflation. So if you sign for 4 years at the 10th highest AAV by year 4 they will be 20th highest. So you put them top 5 knowing they will quickly fall down the list. I actually think at 14th Dion is a bit of a bargain. Cam Robinson (Jags), DJ Humphries (Cardinals) and Garrett Bolles (Broncos) are all inferior players who are higher in AAV than Dion and Orlando Brown (Bengals) and Kolton Miller (Raiders) are also higher and are at best equivalent level - lots seem to love Miller, I don't. 

 

However, giving Dion another big pay day isn't something I'd be keen to do at this point. Not with the weight fluctuation issues and his inconsistent level of play the past two seasons. That said, our line goes as Dion goes currently. When he is at his best our line looks passable. When he is not it looks a shambles. 

Isn’t it hard to asses the only quality lineman on the 2022 roster?  I mean he was working with 3 turnstiles and inconsistent play at C due to availability.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Isn’t it hard to asses the only quality lineman on the 2022 roster?  I mean he was working with 3 turnstiles and inconsistent play at C due to availability.  

 

Definitely a fair point, but there are plenty of snaps where your left tackle is basically in a 1v1 situation and you are going to need them to hold up there. You can still evaluate those without necessarily needing to consider the play of the guys inside. But he didn't get a lot of help, that's true. 

 

[Behindenemylines]

On 5/23/2023 at 9:51 PM, JohnNord said:

Remember…the camera adds 10 pounds!

 

It’s May….I’m not worried about him.  

So there must be 4 cameras then😁

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, mrags said:

The bolded part is what gets me. It’s not like this is a one time thing. He’s legitimately gotten worse every season as far as his weight goes. 
 

you’re right. Maybe he has never really been a worry. He isn’t a top 10 guy. Imo, he’s the 2nd best guy on our OL behind Morse (it’s close). But that to me says more about how weak our OL is/has been. 
 

my big concern is that he’s gotten worse year after year as far as his weight/shape coming in. And it seems it’s not getting any better. As people want to talk about how focused Josh is, and how a lot of other players are focused and poised to have breakout years, and here’s Dawkins coming to camp with hidden happy meals in his locker. You say it’s not a concern at all right now, and I say it’s nothing but a concern because it seems to be worse than last year which was worse the year before that. If it’s not a concern now after 3-4 years, when will it be a concern? 
 

 

 

This isn't a really difficult question to answer. It'll be a concern when it's a concern. That's the answer. Realistic people have to learn to live with uncertainty. There is no way to know. Perhaps soon. Perhaps never.

 

He's been good his whole career, very good, really. With a few down periods, (Bill is right to cite inconsistency) but mostly very good.

 

When that's no longer so, it will be a concern. We have zero evidence that's now. Nor do you have evidence that it's getting worse. And there's certainly no evidence  he's getting better about it either. He's fairly often been bit sloppy, always, but especially in the offseason. Which is how many OLs are. He'll either continue handling it as he has while being good, or he'll get better at it or he'll get worse.

 

If he gets a little worse, it won't be much of a concern. If he gets significantly worse, it will. When and if that happens, it will be a concern. Until then, it's something to watch. Doubtless the Bills have talked to him through the years, and they're doubtless continuing. So far it's worked. 

 

That's no guarantee, but there's no guarantee against regression for any player on any team.

 

 

1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said:

So there must be 4 cameras then😁

 

 

Hah! 😂

 

He's big but he's listed at 320, and I don't see him at 360, even in his worst photo.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I say again, he is actually 14th. The Spotrac list for some reason is missing Ronnie Stanley and the Eagles guy. But you are right on the market. You can't say to be the 10th best left tackle "sign a new deal that makes you the 10th best paid left tackle" because they all know there is year to year salary cap inflation. So if you sign for 4 years at the 10th highest AAV by year 4 they will be 20th highest. So you put them top 5 knowing they will quickly fall down the list. I actually think at 14th Dion is a bit of a bargain. Cam Robinson (Jags), DJ Humphries (Cardinals) and Garrett Bolles (Broncos) are all inferior players who are higher in AAV than Dion and Orlando Brown (Bengals) and Kolton Miller (Raiders) are also higher and are at best equivalent level - lots seem to love Miller, I don't. 

 

However, giving Dion another big pay day isn't something I'd be keen to do at this point. Not with the weight fluctuation issues and his inconsistent level of play the past two seasons. That said, our line goes as Dion goes currently. When he is at his best our line looks passable. When he is not it looks a shambles. 

 

 

Ah, fair enough on Stanley and the Eagles guy, thank you.

 

I'd give him another big payday. He is pretty consistently our best, making the left side look good even when they haven't really been. But with age, you can't give him the same contract a 26 year old would get, certainly. And fair enough to address fitness and/or weight concerns in the next iteration.

 

Won't be easy to replace him without using a 1st round pick or a major FA contract.

[BUFFALOTONE]

19 hours ago, Mango said:

Being in good physical condition with proper body composition is wildly different than peaking. 

I agree, not sure what Buffalo 716 was getting at but that point was lost on me. Dion protects Josh's blindside, should we wait for him to get into shape in November or run the risk of Josh getting crushed in September cause he was too fat and out of shape.

[mrags]

47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This isn't a really difficult question to answer. It'll be a concern when it's a concern. That's the answer. Realistic people have to learn to live with uncertainty. There is no way to know. Perhaps soon. Perhaps never.

 

He's been good his whole career, very good, really. With a few down periods, (Bill is right to cite inconsistency) but mostly very good.

 

When that's no longer so, it will be a concern. We have zero evidence that's now. Nor do you have evidence that it's getting worse. And there's certainly no evidence  he's getting better about it either. He's fairly often been bit sloppy, always, but especially in the offseason. Which is how many OLs are. He'll either continue handling it as he has while being good, or he'll get better at it or he'll get worse.

 

If he gets a little worse, it won't be much of a concern. If he gets significantly worse, it will. When and if that happens, it will be a concern. Until then, it's something to watch. Doubtless the Bills have talked to him through the years, and they're doubtless continuing. So far it's worked. 

 

That's no guarantee, but there's no guarantee against regression for any player on any team.

 

 

 

 

Hah! 😂

 

He's big but he's listed at 320, and I don't see him at 360, even in his worst photo.

 

 

Whatever you believe and tell yourself I guess. I’ll just continue to watch him get fatter and fatter every year and worse and worse every year and won’t make excuses like “it’s only the start of OTAs”. Josh didn’t come in looking fat or out of shape. Knox didn’t come in looking fat and out of shape. The list could go on and on.
I’ll just accept that he’s not bad at his job but he’s not particularly great either. He COULD improve but doesn’t seem like he’s taking the right steps in the off-season to ensure that happens. You know, like how guys like Josh workout all off-season to better himself. How guys like even Tua go to some kind of camp/program to better themselves in some way in the off-season. Dions version of that must be hitting up the McDonald’s drive thru. And that’s fine if youre just some guy on the team. But he walks around like he’s a leader on the team, and he should be trying to better himself. Me personally, I don’t see that happening from him. At best he’s been consistently OK. Which tells me even if he’s not regressing, he’s not progressing either. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Ah, fair enough on Stanley and the Eagles guy, thank you.

 

I'd give him another big payday. He is pretty consistently our best, making the left side look good even when they haven't really been. But with age, you can't give him the same contract a 26 year old would get, certainly. And fair enough to address fitness and/or weight concerns in the next iteration.

 

Won't be easy to replace him without using a 1st round pick or a major FA contract.

 

I am not closed to extending Dion. But he would have to have a career year for me to extend him early. Otherwise I am with @BADOLBILZ I'd let this contract play out and then take a view. But OT would be high on my radar next offseason, both guys that become available for trade or as FAs and/or Draft. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

I agree, not sure what Buffalo 716 was getting at but that point was lost on me. Dion protects Josh's blindside, should we wait for him to get into shape in November or run the risk of Josh getting crushed in September cause he was too fat and out of shape.

 

 

It's May.

[Mango]

20 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Unless you’re a skinny twig like Spencer Brown

 

Every single NFL lineman loses some weight during mini camp and training camp and the season… Football is a grind

 

I used to lose a decent amount of weight during a football season

 

There’s no reason for Dion Dawkins to come in at his actual Sunday game weight in May.., Because he’s going to lose that weight by September… camp gets your body into football shape … lineman lose weight 

 

The season is a massive grind …it takes a toll on your body

 

Offensive lineman are literally called big uglies for a reason

 

And he passed the conditioning test

 

 

 

 

 

Being in good shape at a reasonable weight at OTA's will not hurt DD no matter how many hoops you try to jump through. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Whatever you believe and tell yourself I guess. I’ll just continue to watch him get fatter and fatter every year and worse and worse every year and won’t make excuses like “it’s only the start of OTAs”. Josh didn’t come in looking fat or out of shape. Knox didn’t come in looking fat and out of shape. The list could go on and on.
I’ll just accept that he’s not bad at his job but he’s not particularly great either. He COULD improve but doesn’t seem like he’s taking the right steps in the off-season to ensure that happens. You know, like how guys like Josh workout all off-season to better himself. How guys like even Tua go to some kind of camp/program to better themselves in some way in the off-season. Dions version of that must be hitting up the McDonald’s drive thru. And that’s fine if youre just some guy on the team. But he walks around like he’s a leader on the team, and he should be trying to better himself. Me personally, I don’t see that happening from him. At best he’s been consistently OK. Which tells me even if he’s not regressing, he’s not progressing either. 

 

 

Yeah, you feel that he's getting fatter year by year, despite the fact that nobody else has him making linear progression in any direction. Fits your narrative, so you love it. It doesn't fit reality very well, but hey, if something has to go, let it be the facts. 

 

What has really happened with him is he's gone up and down. But worse each year is pretty much you alone. Relatively bad last year? Probably fair enough, particularly at the beginning of the year. In reality, his weight has gone up and down, and his play has been mostly up but has regressed a couple of times significantly. Hasn't been a linear progression in either direction. But hey, if it works for you, don't let sense stand in the way. Kidding yourself that you know the future, I mean, it makes you look silly, but if you feel comfortable in that role, go for it.

 

Oh, and are Josh and Knox 300+ pounders? OLs? Sorry, man, that's just a dumb comparison.

 

True enough that not all linemen have weight problems, but an awful lot do, partially due to the way they have to force themselves to eat to stay at a weight high enough to not get pushed out of the way. And plenty of those guys who do have concerns have long and very productive careers. Some don't. Some eat themselves out of the league in Fridge-like fashion. That's why it's something to watch. Plenty do just fine. But comparing linemen to skill position guys who weigh like 70 to 80 pounds less shows more about you not quite getting this than it does about the relationship linemen have with body weight.

 

And yeah, not great. Fair enough. Nobody's arguing that he's great, certainly not me. Top ten or twelve generally, sometimes a bit better and for a couple of periods significantly worse for a relatively short but real and concerning time. But generally, top ten or twelve. Which means most of the league would love to have him.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Thurman#1

[TheFunPolice]

Short answer?

 

Yes

[BillsVet]

Makes me laugh reading this thread making excuses for the, ahem, "expanding" Dawkins.  

 

Years ago, hand-wringing Bills fans ripped Jason Peters for showing up to camp out of football shape after a contentious holdout.    

 

Now, a guy like Dawkins who is protecting Allen's blind side shows up doing his imitation of the Stay-Puft Marsmallow Man and it's no big deal.  After all, he's under contract and available for OTA's.

 

Makes me wonder what the reaction will be when he gives up a big hit on JA because those extra 25 pounds inhibited his mobility to mirror rushers.