Warren Sharp: 2023 Schedule is Less Fair & Equitable at a Historic Level

[Shaw66]

These disparities are real and affect performance.   Whether it makes sense to try to make sense of it is a different question.   I think it's actually a question that is of more interest to the coaches than to the fans.  

 

I'm sure most, probably all, teams include in their analytics a lot of information about how they've played after short rest and long rest, and a lot of detail about how they prepared on 10-, 9-, 8-, 7- 6-, 5-, 4-, and 3-days rest.  They have the data so they can schedule practice and travel to be as well prepared as possible.   The preparation plan is different depending on how much time you have between games, whether you have to build travel time in, and how much.  

 

The real test, however, is not about how loud you should whine to the league about getting screwed by the schedule (which you definitely must do, just like talking to the officials during the game); instead, the real test is how well you can prepare 50+ players to win whatever game you have coming, regardless of how much rest you have.   How do you get these players to outplay the opponents, regardless of what they're bringing to the field (including an extra couple of days of rest).   That's the test.  

 

The football schedule is a series of weekly battles between opposing armies.   In a real battle, none of the generals ever says, "Hey, hold on.  Let's start tomorrow, not today, because we just had to run over to Detroit to fight those guys, and we could use another day of rest."  Not in real battles, and not in the NFL, either.  No, gimmes.  No do-overs.  The only question is, "Did you win?"

 

Is the schedule fair?  I guess not.  As others have said, it's a business, and the combatants have to recognize that at some point, they go into battle with a disadvantage.  That's the way it is.   So, "Did you win?"

Edited May 16, 2023 by Shaw66

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So some one did a bunch of math on 17 week schedule (new last season) with a bunch of new non Sunday time slots and international games and found things unfair? 
 

 

interesting but;

 

💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

[bigK14094]

good writeup.  Face it, this isn't about sports competition fairness.  Its about maximizing revenue for the NFL.  Players and fans are just  going to have to go along with that reality.  Now, about this Peacock thing.  I am not going behind any paywall to watch. (although I admit to having Amazon Prime, but that is for other reasons)

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Of course they are. They will maximize profit and ad revenue for marquee matchups at the expense of bottom feeders. Like we were for 17 years.  

Not sure I understand.   They are not giving bottom feeders less rest and good teams more reset.....rather simply not constraining themselves allows more flexibility for scheduling marquee matchups.   I am ok with this...the only drawback is the whining we will have to deal with when the Bills end up on the bad end one season.

[Saint Doug]

Lots of data about rest, but minimal/no data on its effect. This could have been easily researched. For example, does less rest days equate to losses? Does less rest lead to more injuries. 
 

A lot of the inequity has to do with prime time games. Great teams play more prime time games. As we know, these games lead to less rest between games. Prime time games undoubtedly take a toll, but they are mostly affecting great teams - the ones people want to see play. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Great - this will stir up the conspiracy nutjob hordes.

3 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

He lost me around the 87th post.

Maybe it's 'AI Warren Sharp'? 🤔

[Mr. WEO]

Massive and historic rest disparities will ruin this LEAGUE!!!!

 

OUTRAGE!!!!--even though I have never heard of this metric!!

 

 

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Saint Doug said:

Lots of data about rest, but minimal/no data on its effect. This could have been easily researched. For example, does less rest days equate to losses? Does less rest lead to more injuries. 
 

A lot of the inequity has to do with prime time games. Great teams play more prime time games. As we know, these games lead to less rest between games. Prime time games undoubtedly take a toll, but they are mostly affecting great teams - the ones people want to see play. 

The problem is that there aren't big sample sizes, so it's tough to get accurate comparisons to reach conclusions.  Having said that, I have no doubt that teams have analyzed it as thoroughly and with as much statistical rigor as possible, and they can tell you with a fair amount of certainty what the effects are.   They don't just say, "well, small sample size, so we'll ignore it."   The coaches certainly feel the difference in days to prepare, and the players do, too, and I'm sure the analytics people work hard to verify their perceptions.  

 

But, as you say, that doesn't mean the league will do it differently.  They want good games in prime time, and that means the games that they expect, based on what's known today, are the right games to promote as good games on prime time.   And so, we get the Jets in prime time, because the league can get better tv audiences with a New York team in prime time, and the Jets have jumped ahead of the Giants by signing Rodgers.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

[Saint Doug]

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The problem is that there aren't big sample sizes, so it's tough to get accurate comparisons to reach conclusions.  Having said that, I have no doubt that teams have analyzed it as thoroughly and with as much statistical rigor as possible, and they can tell you with a fair amount of certainty what the effects are.   They don't just say, "well, small sample size, so we'll ignore it."   The coaches certainly feel the difference in days to prepare, and the players do, too, and I'm sure the analytics people work hard to verify their perceptions.  

 

But, as you say, that doesn't mean the league will do it differently.  They want good games in prime time, and that means the games that they expect, based on what's known today, are the right games to promote as good games on prime time.   And so, we get the Jets in prime time, because the league can get better tv audiences with a New York team in prime time, and the Jets have jumped ahead of the Giants by signing Rodgers.  

All the data he presented was based on small sample sizes. For example, there being 1 team  facing 5 opponents coming off a bye week. Sounds pretty anecdotal to me. All the other data was similarly on a very limit set of data. Pool this data over at least 3 years and it may show something meaning. 
 

If the teams have this data (and I agree, they probably do), we can’t assume to know what this data is. Even if it appears obvious to an observer. I would think if they did have this data, I would also assume they are sharing this with the league. The league has a Competition Committee and a Health & Safety Committee, not to mention an NFLPA keeping a close eye on them. If this data was showing something meaningful, I would think (an assumption) something would be done about it. 

[The Wiz]

Apparently a team he likes is getting the short end of the "rest" stick.

 

Meanwhile, I will continue to listen to the fading drums of "we always play in KC!!!!"

 

I stopped caring about where we play during the covid years.

[Saxum]

The new scheduling and broadcast partners have contributed to disparity.  Somebody had to get screwed so all the new scheduling options.  NFL Teams are now being screwed along with fans who attend games and fans trying to watch all games and needing to pay for various services they would not buy otherwise and raises in prices of services they already were buying.

[Dr.Sack]

The Bills need to smash NJJ week 1. 

[Ya Digg?]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Of course they are. They will maximize profit and ad revenue for marquee matchups at the expense of bottom feeders. Like we were for 17 years.  

Except the team that had the worst disadvantage isn’t a bottom feeder-they played in the NFC championship game! 
 

Also, how did this thread make it almost 2 pages without anyone mentioning the whole “Jets don’t play in NY” thing? According to this guy, the Jets play against the Bills several weeks in a row!!

[BuffaloBill]

I am not a fan of all of the game offerings on days other than Sunday.  The scheduling of these days makes the situation outlined here an issue.

[PatsFanNH]

18 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1658514760717959169?s=20

 

 

Not shocked they want the Jets to be good. I mean the Jets will mess this up somehow and end up 7-9 or 9-8.. but I understand the NFL wants both NY teams be good it’s a huge market. 

[Buffalo Junction]

I think it’s just as interesting that this will be the second year in a row that the Bills will be playing a “home game” on the road. You’d think the schedulers would’ve accounted for the  Detroit/blizzard issue. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 5/16/2023 at 3:15 PM, Donuts and Doritos said:

He lost me around the 87th post.

I am working on a theory Warren Sharp is our own 'BSF/I am leaving for good'. 🤔

Edited May 19, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Fleezoid]

Oh crap! Now I need a nap. 

 

[Chicken Boo]

Given the teams benefitting from a rest advantage, it seems like incompetence on the NFL's part as opposed to a malicious scheme.

 

*or like stated earlier, just the league in search of the best match-ups.

Edited May 17, 2023 by Chicken Boo