Don't Blitz Josh?

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

You would think Sacks, but the correlation is not even relevant (at least as it relates to Allen and the Bills). Probably more reason to not do it. 

 

Unless I'm missing something, and perhaps I am, all it shows is the percentage of blitzes in those games.  Nothing else to relate it to.  

 

I'm not sure what the point is.  Usually an analysis contrasts one or more things.   ?? 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Unless I'm missing something, and perhaps I am, all it shows is the percentage of blitzes in those games.  Nothing else to relate it to.  

 

I'm not sure what the point is.  Usually an analysis contrasts one or more things.   ?? 

 

 

It was about how defenses blitzed us less in the 2nd half of 2022. A long with how teams that know us well like divisional opponents seemed to alter strategy and forgo blitzing last year when they had done so at a much higher rates in the past. Then how we did very little it would seem to counter it. 

[John from Riverside]

The bills gave Josh Allen one of the best thing you can do for a blitz beater, they gave him a legitimate, pass, catching tight end

[Einstein]

Now that’s a great OP.

[Patrick Duffy]

7 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya  think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick.

 

This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. 

 

Well, clearly there's no way to know if the OL is average or anything right now. It may be between 5-8 weeks before you're able to get a good idea where they might stack up.

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

42 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Well, clearly there's no way to know if the OL is average or anything right now. It may be between 5-8 weeks before you're able to get a good idea where they might stack up.

 

 

It's my opinion  

[Mikie2times]

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Dorsey watched how a really good TE was used at Carolina. I do not think Dorsey will be an issue as much as people think.

He also passed to Jeremy Shockey. You would REALLY think the guy would value the TE position. We will see. 

[Chandler#81]

15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. 

 

Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. 

 

These were those games

 

 

Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right)

 

Jets

 

Patriots

 

Dolphins

 

This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID

 

In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game.

 

 

But if you look before that point.

 

Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them.  

 

 

So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach?

 

 

Great stuff, Mikie2! Thank you!

[Billy Claude]

Kind of curious.  While it felt like Allen killed the D anytime they blitzed in 2020 and 2021, my impression was that the blitz gave Allen a lot of trouble in 2022.

 

For what its worth, PFF also says the blitz rate against Allen was low but teams were effective when they blitzed:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-slowing-down-josh-allen-buffalo-bills-blitzing

 

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Billy Claude
grammar

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

Kind of curious.  While it felt like Allen killed the D anytime they blitzed in 2020 and 2021, my impression was that the blitz gave Allen a lot of trouble in 2022.

 

For what its worth, PFF also says the blitz rate against Allen was low but the blitz but teams were effective when they blitzed:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-slowing-down-josh-allen-buffalo-bills-blitzing

 

 

Immediate pressure up the middle gave Allen trouble like it does every QB.  It made blitzes off the edge much more effective then they otherwise would have been.

 

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

He also passed to Jeremy Shockey. You would REALLY think the guy would value the TE position. We will see. 

oh my....

[Mikie2times]

3 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

Kind of curious.  While it felt like Allen killed the D anytime they blitzed in 2020 and 2021, my impression was that the blitz gave Allen a lot of trouble in 2022.

 

For what its worth, PFF also says the blitz rate against Allen was low but the blitz but teams were effective when they blitzed:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-slowing-down-josh-allen-buffalo-bills-blitzing

 

 

Super interesting read. In general terms, regardless of blitzing, I think more teams will be looking to contain Josh in the pocket vs flat out rush him. The goal being don't let him run. Running helps his game so much. Helps him establish rhythm, gives him an out when he doesn't have a good read. It's sort of the dimension that made him a unicorn along with some of those insane broken plays. At the end of the day, teams are going to force Josh into being more of traditional NFL QB. To sit in the pocket and not scramble. To take the underneath routes and be patient. As several have mentioned, it's always punch and counter punch. This progression of teams removing what you do best, then getting back to the drawing board and understanding how to beat it. Repeating over and over. This progression is what makes the great ones truly unstoppable. I think Josh and his team are aware of what teams are doing. I think he trains in a way to combat the latest strategies being used. I certainly think we have upgraded our short attack heavily. This could be a really great year for him if he learns how to navigate these new twists teams are throwing at us. Looking forward to it!

[Shaw66]

On 5/13/2023 at 8:58 AM, CincyBillsFan said:

Immediate pressure up the middle gave Allen trouble like it does every QB.  It made blitzes off the edge much more effective then they otherwise would have been.

 

 

 

 

This correct.  Just as the Bills did against mobil QBs, teams had the edge rushers contain and get pressure up the middle.  Worked against Allen, especially with the defense in a zone.  

 

And that, my friends, is why our man O'Cyrus has joined the effort.  The Bills intend to stop the pressure up the middle, and they intend to have too many receiving weapons to cover with a zone. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Shaw66

[Mikie2times]

I'm only bumping this because it seems to be relevant. The Jets did not blitz Allen yesterday which has never happened in Allen's career and is following the trend from after the Green Bay game last season. I will admit, this can't be as simple as just not blitzing Allen. When you watch the games it also seems like Allen's ability to scramble in the pocket and create has been much more limited than 2019-2021. To me it seems much more like defenses have looked at film and said two main things.

 

How do we limit improvisation? How do we encourage mistakes?

 

The answer seems to be slow rushing Josh. Keeping containment in rush lanes. Dropping 7-8 in coverage, spying all the time, and asking Allen to drive the field. Are you guys seeing the same things? I have seen so many what is wrong with Josh threads. I really just think teams have found a very good recipe against him.