Don't Blitz Josh?

[PrimeTime101]

For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya  think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick.

 

This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. 

[Shaw66]

Teams also aren't blizing because of the lack of a running game.  Allowing their safeties to stay out of the box facilitates playing zone pass defense.  A safety in the box forces more man to man, which is easier to attack.  

Just now, PrimeTime101 said:

For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya  think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick.

 

This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. 

Well, whether the Bills actually did it remains to be seen, but I agree that they've attempted to adjust.  

[Patrick Duffy]

Well I'd guess if Bills offense struggled against the blitz a bit more last season than prior couple seasons, then I'd say one issue which possibly was the biggest issue that played a factor was the absence of Bease.

 

Obviously multiple issues played a part, New OC, OL, etc....but that confidence and trust with Bease that he could rely on not there anymore when the ball needs to come out fast in those situations was a big part

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Teams also aren't blizing because of the lack of a running game.  Allowing their safeties to stay out of the box facilitates playing zone pass defense.  A safety in the box forces more man to man, which is easier to attack.  

Well, whether the Bills actually did it remains to be seen, but I agree that they've attempted to adjust.  

First Bolded I agree. That too... 

To the second bolded? For me? We got way better on offense. I am confident. 

[JerseyBills]

Just shocked at the Mia #s

 

Watching on TV,  looked like they were blitzing all day

[Robert Paulson]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I agree. I think it's a very bad combination at the moment. Favre style mentality combined with an OC that doesn't do a great job scripting and creating the underneath. 

 

This is another interesting look. IAY/PA is air yards per pass attempt. So basically, how deep is Josh trying to throw on average. The true demise at the end of last year appears to be the combination of less blitzing and deeper throws. You can see it pretty clearly in the heat map. 

 

 

14.8%, they did the same and I agree 100%. Blitzing sort of forces the issue. I almost think forcing the issue is probably good for Josh. It limits how much he thinks. Helps his timing. Creates running seams. If you can keep Josh in the pocket and play coverage, then make him think. I think that's what teams game planned against us last year. 

josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late.  i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain  on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. 

 

the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

First Bolded I agree. That too... 

To the second bolded? For me? We got way better on offense. I am confident. 

I agree the team has better pieces.  I think the question is whether Dorsey is the man to put the puzzle together.

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late.  i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain  on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. 

 

the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. 

There were reports that the elbow injury impacted his ability on swing passes and screens so that makes sense. He certainly didn’t have trouble rippin’ it on straight rope, though. That pass to Diggs to set up the win against Detroit was a rocket. As was the game ending play against the Jets just two plays after sustaining the injury. Nearly 70 yards to Davis on a rope down the left sideline that beat Sauce Gardner. Davis could have caught that ball.

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Thank you Gunner. As far as all these "bad offensive line" posts or getting home with just the DL, the line has always been bad. Yes, that contributes, but nothing was new in that in 2022. Bad line, no running game, same as 2019, 2020, 2021. Virtually no blitzing that is teams playing us different. I look at it as zone concepts as you said. Containing Josh in the pocket. A lack of development in our short and intermediate passing game. A lack of weapons in our short and intermediate passing game. No running game. Buffalo destroying every record they ever had in Air Yards per attempt. Hell, it could be an NFL record. I don't think teams really cared if Josh had time if everything above was in play. 

 

As one poster mentioned, I do believe we have looked at this specific issue and a lot of our signings have been related to it.  As Beane says, you look at your last loss of the season. Cincy didn't blitz us either and those conditions, when your entire offense is built on the deep ball. It doesn't work. 

 

The line was 'decent' in 2020 except the two games against the Chiefs where Spags outcoached Dabes. But that is the only time Josh has had anything approaching good protection. A bad line isn't enough explanation of the change in how defenses play us.

 

The only semi counter to your point is that actually the entire league is moving that way. Blitz less, be multiple in your coverage looks, rush 4 and confuse the QB long enough that the 4 get home. Some of it is teams working out that is the plan v Allen some of it is likely jusr teams doing that more as part of their base defense.

[PrimeTime101]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree the team has better pieces.  I think the question is whether Dorsey is the man to put the puzzle together.

Dorsey watched how a really good TE was used at Carolina. I do not think Dorsey will be an issue as much as people think.

[Royale with Cheese]

I feel the blitz is only effective against mediocre and below QB's.

 

Almost all great QB's are good against the blitz.  They usually recognize early and know how to counter it quickly.  

Mental processing speed is faster than any LB/Edge/Corner legs.

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late.  i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain  on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. 

 

the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. 

 

I think that's an astute observation.

 

Josh openly said that the elbow caused him to change his motion from his preferred 2020-on "rotational" motion to a more overhead, lateral motion

 

That's the throwing motion he came into the league with, and struggled with accuracy on short passes with.

 

So I think it follows that he was not as pinpoint accurate with those middle of the field and short throws, thus hesitated to take them.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Dorsey watched how a really good TE was used at Carolina. I do not think Dorsey will be an issue as much as people think.

 

Well, I'm not sure what you're trying to get at in regards of what you say he watched at Carolina. He could have gotten Knox more involved than he did. I hope he figures it out with Knox/Kincaid in his 2nd season.'

 

As for the bold, that's certainly the hope..however it remains to be seen and some fans aren't as confident in Dorsey at the moment

[Mikie2times]

37 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

josh always looks for the homerun so when he has time he thinks he can wait for the long ball to open until it is too late.  i still feel his elbow injury caused him to lose his touch/gave him pain  on those short RB/TE passes but he was still able to chuck it. 

 

the first few weeks of the season he was taking those short throws then he didn't after the injury. 

That would be interesting as the data certainly shows his targets getting way outside the range he has lived in historically. He was always higher in air yards per target, but he didn't stay high.  For context, he averaged 10 yards or greater in air distance per throw 5 times in the 2nd half of 2022. Mahomes and Burrow have have eclipsed that mark a combined 4 times, since 2020, combined. 

[BigAl2526]

This is the ongoing game of chess that is the NFL.  When Josh came into the league, it was a tried and true practice to blitz young QBs as a way to force mistakes.  Young QBs have to sink or swim.  Josh learned to swim.  Josh faced so much blitzing that I wonder if his development at dealing with other kinds of defenses could have been slowed a bit.  We can be sure that Dorsey and Josh will take a close look at what defenses like the Jets were able to do against the Bills last season and work at ways to counter them.  The offseason moves of the Bills on offense (upgrading the line, drafting a potentially elite TE, acquiring a couple of running backs that possess power and switching out some receivers who disappointed last season for some who may be more reliable) all point toward fixing the areas where Buffalo sometimes struggled last season.  

[Pirate Angel]

They may have Blitzed because they couldn't cover all the weapons. Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Beasley, Knox. Gabe Davis seemed to be very good playing as the #3 or 4 almost like a TE finding a soft spot to run to. 2023 it was double Diggs and put your #1 CB on Gabe and spy Josh. Crowder got hurt, Mckenzie was bad, and we just couldnt generate anything over the middle. Bring in Hardy, Kincaid, and Sheffield to try and get some of that fire power back 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. 

 

Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. 

 

These were those games

 

 

Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right)

 

Jets

 

Patriots

 

Dolphins

 

This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID

 

In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game.

 

 

But if you look before that point.

 

Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them.  

 

 

So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach?

 

 

 

All that's there is Blitz%.  What's correlated to that?  

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

All that's there is Blitz%.  What's correlated to that?  

You would think Sacks, but the correlation is not even relevant (at least as it relates to Allen and the Bills). Probably more reason to not do it. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

We can be sure that Dorsey and Josh will take a close look at what defenses like the Jets were able to do against the Bills last season and work at ways to counter them.

 

The best possible counter to the way defenses played us last year is TE seam routes. The 2nd best counter is stop routes by a cerebral pass catcher that knows where to sit in coverage gaps, especially one with fluid catch and run ability. Hey what do you know, the Bills drafted a player in the 1st round that excels at both of these concepts.

 

Kincaid and to some extent James Cook are the answer to the problem defenses posed us last year. It was bizarre watching us refuse to get Knox and our pass catching RBs involved last year when defenses were practically begging us to throw them the ball. As long as Dorsey understands this, and the Kincaid pick makes me optimistic that he does, I expect a more consistent / much less boom or bust offense this year.

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by HappyDays

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

For me this is not even a real topic. 2 years ago we had a bad offensive line but good targets. Last year we had a bad offensive line and no targets. What ya  think they would do? Now we have an "average" (and I am ok with saying around 15th best OL} With actual target that you can get rid of the ball quick.

 

This topic for me is a no brainer. We needed to get better on the Line and Targets. We did it. Moving on. 

It’s the old adage, the game is won and lost at the line of scrimmage, it’s the core of every offense, I very much hope that this seasons O-line steps up, it’s crucial for overall success, especially in the postseason. 🤞