Don't Blitz Josh?

[Mikie2times]

I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. 

 

Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. 

 

These were those games

 

 

Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right)

 

Jets

 

Patriots

 

Dolphins

 

This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID

 

In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game.

 

 

But if you look before that point.

 

Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them.  

 

 

So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach?

 

 

[Brand J]

Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed.

I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. 

[Beck Water]

So what happens when you blitz a guy?

That's one less player to cover and if the QB gets out of the pocket, one less player to contain and pursue.

 

To the OP - what did the Bengals game look like?

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed.

I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. 

 

I agree. I think it's a very bad combination at the moment. Favre style mentality combined with an OC that doesn't do a great job scripting and creating the underneath. 

 

This is another interesting look. IAY/PA is air yards per pass attempt. So basically, how deep is Josh trying to throw on average. The true demise at the end of last year appears to be the combination of less blitzing and deeper throws. You can see it pretty clearly in the heat map. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

So what happens when you blitz a guy?

That's one less player to cover and if the QB gets out of the pocket, one less player to contain and pursue.

 

To the OP - what did the Bengals game look like?

14.8%, they did the same and I agree 100%. Blitzing sort of forces the issue. I almost think forcing the issue is probably good for Josh. It limits how much he thinks. Helps his timing. Creates running seams. If you can keep Josh in the pocket and play coverage, then make him think. I think that's what teams game planned against us last year. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Mikie2times

[billsfan89]

I hope that with Kincaid added in the mix and the hopefully better guard/o-line play leads to a more diverse offense. Better running and playaction and two TE sets. 

[JJGauna]

No need to blitz when the o-line was pretty bad at times last year. 

[jahnyc]

Maybe defenses didn't feel the need to blitz since they were generating enough pressure against our o-line without blitzing?

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, JJGauna said:

No need to blitz when the o-line was pretty bad at times last year. 

 

 

 

That is nowhere close to being the reason when looking at it relative to his career. 

4 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Maybe defenses didn't feel the need to blitz since they were generating enough pressure against our o-line without blitzing?

He had the lowest rate of pressure of his career last year by a large margin. 

[Malazan]

7 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Maybe defenses didn't feel the need to blitz since they were generating enough pressure against our o-line without blitzing?

 

Allen is able to make guys miss and buy a second when he needs it so taking a guy out of coverage was an advantage to Allen in a big way. It also looked like teams figured out that even if their rush wasn't able to get to Allen quickly, that the Bills offense was more than happy to take that time to try for a big play downfield which then got them into a catch 22. 

 

I don't know how much was Dorsey, Allen, zero threat to run the ball or the offensive line being bad, but they need to be able to make teams pay with the run and/or short passing game (and man did they seem super awkward on screens). The Bills offense was 1 dimensional and that is always easy to defend regardless of what that dimension is (it's a testament to Allen that he was still as good as he was and they scored as much as they did).

Edited May 12, 2023 by Malazan

[LABILLBACKER]

27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

So what happens when you blitz a guy?

That's one less player to cover and if the QB gets out of the pocket, one less player to contain and pursue.

 

To the OP - what did the Bengals game look like?

Also when your OL blows more each year it's less necessary to blitz.  You can still get to Josh in 1.8 sec with 4.  This is a byproduct of poor OL play and a rookie OC who struggles to emphasize dump offs to Josh.

[DCofNC]

Multiple factors at play here.  

 

1) Josh is one of , if not the best QB when blitzed and you don’t want him out of the pocket, he creates chaos. 
 

2) Many of the teams we played have a good interior of their DL and the middle of our line is/was horribly soft, do dumping people in his lap wasn’t a problem. 
 

3) The WRs sucked and ran long routes, he HAD to wait and teams knew they could get to him with that extra time. 
 

4) Like Maholmes, you won’t stop him, but you can slow him, more men in coverage is a better odds of doing so. 
 

If the line play picks up, teams will be forced to blitz him to get pressure and he will have time to pick that up and make a team pay for it, if the line is a hot mess again… well.. see reason 2.

Edited May 12, 2023 by DCofNC

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

50 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I have been looking at a lot of splits involving Josh the last month and this is one that really stood out to me. 

 

Josh was Blitzed relentlessly in 2019, 2020, and 2021. If you look at times Josh was blitzed on 45% or more of his passes, none of them came in 2022. It happened 16 total times prior. Teams did have some success in this style when the %'s really ratcheted up. I can only presume when the blitz % got 50% or higher it was also probably working. 

 

These were those games

 

 

Then something changed last year. Josh has been blitzed 20% or less 14 times since 2019, half of those times came in 2022, but to me, it's much more telling how our division rivals played us. (Blitz % is on the far right)

 

Jets

 

Patriots

 

Dolphins

 

This is a massive change. Pre 2022, we played 18 divisional regular season games, 0 of them resulted in a Blitz % below 20%. In 2022, ALL OF THEM DID

 

In trying to understand when this trend really started, it appears like the Miami game or Jets game.

 

 

But if you look before that point.

 

Tennessee always played us like this and Pittsburgh certainly decided to do so as that game plan was so out of character for them.  

 

 

So when we think what changed so much in the back half of 2022. Certainly his injury plays into it. I also wonder, did teams just start playing us more in the mold of bend but don't break? If that is the case, did we ever find out an answer in how we beat that approach?

 

 

 

43 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed.

I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. 

a lot of the moves this offseason makes it seem like they are self aware and at least from a personnel standpoint added pieces to help the short game 

[Charles Romes]

Jets D has gotten really good and they don’t need to blitz. That’s 1/3 of the opponents. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. Oline was bad so you can get home with rushing 4 or less 

2. Josh has proven he is a blitz killer so it makes sense to drop 7 in coverage. 

3. Every good defense we have seen for more than a decade now is predicated on getting pressure with the front four. McD is no different. The truly great defenses can rush four from odd formations to confuse and create matchup issues 

[GunnerBill]

The book on the Bills is out. No question. It is on Dorsey and to an extent Josh to find an answer. 

Just now, Ethan in Cleveland said:

1. Oline was bad so you can get home with rushing 4 or less 

2. Josh has proven he is a blitz killer so it makes sense to drop 7 in coverage. 

3. Every good defense we have seen for more than a decade now is predicated on getting pressure with the front four. McD is no different. The truly great defenses can rush four from odd formations to confuse and create matchup issues 

 

Yep all of these are true but it has ALWAYS been the case since he came into the league that Josh burns you if you play a lot of man on the back end. Early in his career you could make up for that by getting there before he had a chance to recognise it. Now he recognises it quicker he burns the blitz. Where he has been less good is vs flood zones. And that is some on him, some on playcalling and some on talent around him.

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The book on the Bills is out. No question. It is on Dorsey and to an extent Josh to find an answer. 

 

Yep all of these are true but it has ALWAYS been the case since he came into the league that Josh burns you if you play a lot of man on the back end. Early in his career you could make up for that by getting there before he had a chance to recognise it. Now he recognises it quicker he burns the blitz. Where he has been less good is vs flood zones. And that is some on him, some on playcalling and some on talent around him.

Thank you Gunner. As far as all these "bad offensive line" posts or getting home with just the DL, the line has always been bad. Yes, that contributes, but nothing was new in that in 2022. Bad line, no running game, same as 2019, 2020, 2021. Virtually no blitzing that is teams playing us different. I look at it as zone concepts as you said. Containing Josh in the pocket. A lack of development in our short and intermediate passing game. A lack of weapons in our short and intermediate passing game. No running game. Buffalo destroying every record they ever had in Air Yards per attempt. Hell, it could be an NFL record. I don't think teams really cared if Josh had time if everything above was in play. 

 

As one poster mentioned, I do believe we have looked at this specific issue and a lot of our signings have been related to it.  As Beane says, you look at your last loss of the season. Cincy didn't blitz us either and those conditions, when your entire offense is built on the deep ball. It doesn't work. 

[Rubes]

I don't have anything to add to the discussion other than this is a pretty interesting and cool thread. Thanks OP!

 

[Thrivefourfive]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I agree. I think it's a very bad combination at the moment. Favre style mentality combined with an OC that doesn't do a great job scripting and creating the underneath. 

 

This is another interesting look. IAY/PA is air yards per pass attempt. So basically, how deep is Josh trying to throw on average. The true demise at the end of last year appears to be the combination of less blitzing and deeper throws. You can see it pretty clearly in the heat map. 

 

 

14.8%, they did the same and I agree 100%. Blitzing sort of forces the issue. I almost think forcing the issue is probably good for Josh. It limits how much he thinks. Helps his timing. Creates running seams. If you can keep Josh in the pocket and play coverage, then make him think. I think that's what teams game planned against us last year. 

This, exactly. He’s throwing deep into the “bend”. That’s the complete opposite approach to have. Granted, JA threw some deep balls that should’ve been caught,,, but we’re dropped… by everyone not named Diggs.
 

The glaring result of this misguided response to the ‘bend’ defense were the picks in opponents’ territory. The Bend is strongest on that end… that’s when they don’t break.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Josh needs to look for his RBs and TEs more. Dorsey deserves a lot of blame for some stuff and I know it’s popular to blame him for not designing plays specifically to those positions, but TEs and RBs were open. That’s on Josh to find them if his receivers are blanketed.

I think Josh’s numbers against zone coverage last year were his worst since 2019. Part of that is pressure from up front, so the OL needs to do a better job sustaining blocks and allowing him to get into his reads. It’s never one player, one position, or one coach; it’s the totality of it all. 

I really think this comes down to measure/countermeasure.   I think a lot of this falls on Josh (and some Dorsey), most plays have options even if the primary target is supposed to be Davis 18 yards down field.  I think Josh recognizing what the defense is trying to do and then knowing instinctively what to do to counter it is what is missing.  Josh does well when you blitz him because he can escape the rush and someone will be open.  I think more shorter/rhythm passes are needed at times.  This league is full of data analytics, every team is looking for what works against this QB or that QB, you have to schematically flexible.  Sometimes the dump offs are the right decision.

[K-9]

32 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Jets D has gotten really good and they don’t need to blitz. That’s 1/3 of the opponents. 

This is irrefutable as they are one of the least blitzing teams in the league and that is directly related to their front four and quick LBs who can close and cover quickly. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by K-9