AFC Post Draft Tiers

[corta765]

7 minutes ago, cle23 said:

I don't disagree with much of what was said, but Watson played in 2020, so he has played 6 games in 2 seasons, not in 3 seasons.  You would assume that he would get back closer to 2020 Watson after a full offseason and beginning the year, but I don't disagree with Cleveland's lower rating until he proves it.  If he is 2020 Watson, they should be SB contenders.  If he isn't, then they won't be.

 

My bad its been so long it felt like three seasons lol. I honestly wonder between his injuries and more importantly that much time off plus the chaos that surrounded him if he ever can reach the heights he had. Last year was not good but 6 games is not much to judge a player and he will have a full season from camp on to get himself going.

 

The bigger question is are the Browns better then CIN or BAL? If they are 1-3 vs those two alone they already fall back in division AND that leaves not a ton of room for error in the remaining 14 games.

 

Again I am skeptical for this year, although long term I think CLE and Watson get it together enough to be at least a playoff team.

1 minute ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 How was the offense in 2022 less dynamic than 2021? They averaged the same amount of points as 2021, had the best 3rd down percentage of Josh's career had the most yards per game in team history. It clearly wasn't the same offense as 2021, but it was a better offense than 2021. Josh had slightly better season stats in 2022 also. 

 

 I think people forget just how bad Josh and the offense was after game 7 in 2021. 17 tds, 3 ints through the first 7 games. 19 tds and 12 ints in the final 9 games, including the worst game of his career when he posted a 17 QB Rating against a bad Atlanta team. And all that bad play in 2021 was against a much easier schedule.

 

 

 

They were far more boom or bust in 2022 then the two years prior. 21' they had a blimp but by the end of the season from Bucs game on they were rolling. Last year once they got to the Browns game it felt like Josh was basically elevating the offense single handily but it was never crisp. Teams doubled Diggs and his target options were not there. It is why I like Kincaid and Sheffield as two guys who can eat yardage how Beasley did and give a security blanket Josh needed as last year went on. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, corta765 said:

 It is why I have them in their own category. On paper this team SHOULD be anywhere from 11-13 wins even with KC. But they have a single playoff appearance which the coach made some just atrocious calls a week after getting two guys hurt who didn't need to play. There is 100% a higher ceiling for this group and I won't be surprised if someday it appears for a season, but there is too much variance to buy them full board either.

Same could be said of the Bills. They have a superstar QB and a coaching staff that cost them a SuperBowl.  Obviously Bills have accomplished more but the Bills were in an easier division.  I've posted before, that Bills may only win 11 games and still be a better team than 13-3 2022 team.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

48 minutes ago, cle23 said:

I don't disagree with much of what was said, but Watson played in 2020, so he has played 6 games in 2 seasons, not in 3 seasons.  You would assume that he would get back closer to 2020 Watson after a full offseason and beginning the year, but I don't disagree with Cleveland's lower rating until he proves it.  If he is 2020 Watson, they should be SB contenders.  If he isn't, then they won't be.

Watson is absolutely awful.  He had multiple weeks to prepare and was truly terrible in his 6 weeks of action last season.  

Will go down as the single worst GM decision in NFL history.  Far worse than any draft pick bust or other lopsided trade.  They knew about the allegations and still gave away multiple years of draft picks and signed him to the single worst contract in NFL history.  NFL is likely blackballing the Browns from PrimeTime games to avoid the  public backlash.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

Wilson has been shot for 3 years and is playing on reputation. 

Terrible OL in Seattle and terrible HC like one of the worst ever in Denver. 

But you may be right he could be shot too.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

They were far more boom or bust in 2022 then the two years prior. 21' they had a blimp but by the end of the season from Bucs game on they were rolling. Last year once they got to the Browns game it felt like Josh was basically elevating the offense single handily but it was never crisp. Teams doubled Diggs and his target options were not there. It is why I like Kincaid and Sheffield as two guys who can eat yardage how Beasley did and give a security blanket Josh needed as last year went on. 

 

 Again stats show a different story. 3rd down percentage 2021- 46.4%, 2022 - 50.26%. Ypg 2021 - 391.7, 2022 - 407.7. 

 

 As for the offense rolling after the Bucs game, up only 10 against a bad Carolina team until a they scored with 2 minutes left to go, played really well against the Pats, then Josh's worst game ever against Atlanta and finally up only 3 with 9 minutes to go against a really bad 4 win Jets team. The team and the offense was not rolling after the Bucs game. They started rolling in the playoffs, but that's all people remember the playoff games.

 

 

 

[cle23]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Watson is absolutely awful.  He had multiple weeks to prepare and was truly terrible in his 6 weeks of action last season.  

Will go down as the single worst GM decision in NFL history.  Far worse than any draft pick bust or other lopsided trade.  They knew about the allegations and still gave away multiple years of draft picks and signed him to the single worst contract in NFL history.  NFL is likely blackballing the Browns from PrimeTime games to avoid the  public backlash.

 

Watson in 2020 was top tier. He still has the talent. He wasn't allowed to practice for months or even be in the building. He didn't even get 1st team reps or play much in preseason because they had to get Brissett ready to play.  

 

Watson was average last year. He was understandably very rusty the 1st game or 2 and they had a couple terrible weather games at the end of the year. Not excusing his play but it definitely puts it into perspective a little bit.

 

He very well may never get back to where he was. But I think it's very premature to come out and say that he's terrible all the sudden.

[Chaos]

Bengals are ahead of the Bills until proven otherwise. Two years in a row, the Bengals advance further than the Bills This past season the Bengals stomped the Bills. They are not even. 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Chaos

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Bengals are ahead of the Bills until proven otherwise. Two years in a row, the Bengals advance further than the Bengals This past season the Bengals stomped the Bills. They are not even. 

I’m not disagreeing but the gap is small and neither is on KCs level

[Kwai San]

10 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Legit I had no idea where to put them lol SB Contender? Sure! Playoff team with a question? Sure! Need everything to go right for the playoff chance? Sure!

 

Miami has the widest range of outcomes to me because I can see them at 13-3 and I can see them at 6-11 just simply because of the division and some roster questions. The Chargers on the other hand probably have a higher floor, but dear god their questions are so unique and off the wall by comparison. I mean this team punctured their starting QBs lung and people wonder why their roster regularly has injury issues. WHAT IS GOING ON THERE! haha

 

Awesome job @corta765 on the overall recap and DEAD NUTS on with this Miami take.  Who the heck knows who is going to show up for them???  That and if the Bills get a late season away game against the Fins this year?  Well it will play different than last year thats for sure!!!

 

Thanks for the time effort and energy on this write up....great take all around.  THIS is why I like coming to this site - people who post something of substance not crazy crap about clothes and what not!!!!

[corta765]

10 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

Awesome job @corta765 on the overall recap and DEAD NUTS on with this Miami take.  Who the heck knows who is going to show up for them???  That and if the Bills get a late season away game against the Fins this year?  Well it will play different than last year thats for sure!!!

 

Thanks for the time effort and energy on this write up....great take all around.  THIS is why I like coming to this site - people who post something of substance not crazy crap about clothes and what not!!!!

 

Appreciated the kind remarks. I try to limit my posts to things of substance that are not repeated although I did once post we need to get rid of Micah Hyde which MAYYY have been the season he also had the incredible INT vs NE... WHOOPS

[Mister Defense]

Very nice, detailed take, analysis here!

 

I agree with most, but not the inclusion of Denver, at least with Wilson starting at quarterback.  The guy is done and I believe no coach or players can help revive him.  As I said the day it happened last year, worst trade, by leaps and bounds, in NFL history.  I would have been outraged as Broncos fan--if it was just a straight up, player for player trade for only Noah Fant.  But they literally gave away the store, their future , for  a quarterback who the Seahawks wanted to just get rid of anyway.

 

And I think you may be wrong about Tennessee, as their coaching seems to keep them in contention.  Could not believe they got rid of their best player last year, AJ Brown.  This and the Wilson trade make me  wonder how some of these GMs got their jobs.

 

But otherwise really like these rankings, observations.

 

[corta765]

7 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Very nice, detailed take, analysis here!

 

I agree with most, but not the inclusion of Denver, at least with Wilson starting at quarterback.  The guy is done and I believe no coach or players can help revive him.  As I said the day it happened last year, worst trade, by leaps and bounds, in NFL history.  I would have been outraged as Broncos fan--if it was just a straight up, player for player trade for only Noah Fant.  But they literally gave away the store, their future , for  a quarterback who the Seahawks wanted to just get rid of anyway.

 

And I think you may be wrong about Tennessee, as their coaching seems to keep them in contention.  Could not believe they got rid of their best player last year, AJ Brown.  This and the Wilson trade make me  wonder how some of these GMs got their jobs.

 

But otherwise really like these rankings, observations.

 

 

Thanks man. I think Payton is the offensive version of BB who can elevate a QB even if they are limited which is more why I have them there. Also Hackett game mgmt wise was just so over his head that in itself might keep them closer or win a few games they shouldn't.

 

Titans I could be wrong with as their they play an incredibly weak division and if Henry is going that will keep them alive if they don't turn the ball over. I just wonder though if they are 2-5 or 3-6 mid season if the wheels really come off at that point.

[Bruffalo]

Bills just need one of the many FA Edge rushers still available to round out the defense and I think we're just straight up better than we were a year ago. 

[Bulldog]

I may, admittedly, just be a simpleton - but these are the only "tiers" that matter to me:

 

Tier 1 - Teams that I live & die to see win every week --- Buffalo Bills

 

Tier 2 - Teams that I intensely dislike and hope to see lose every week --- NE Patriots, Miami Dolphins, NY Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys 

 

Tier 3 - Teams that I only care if they win or lose if it affects the Bills in the standings --- all other NFL teams.