Gabe Davis Off-season?

[John from Riverside]

Somewhere out there I am envisioning Gabe Davis’s mom throwing tennis balls at him everywhere he goes

[falgobofu]

I agree he was not up to par last year for whatever reason you want to come up with. I like Cover 1 and here are some stats that should show how important Davis is to this offense.

[Don Otreply]

18 hours ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

Last year I recall hearing / seeing that Gabe was bulking up- being a gym rat.

anyone hear what he is doing this offseason?
would like to hear that he is working with Knox’s eye/hand coordination guru. And running a lot of routes, catching a lot of passes….in preparation for the breakout year he should have had last season.

 

Hookers and blow, he’ll be ready,

[billybrew1]

19 hours ago, msw2112 said:

For what it's worth, I think that Davis will work hard this offseason and come back and have a very strong season next year.  While I don't envision 4 TDs every game like he did in the KC playoff game, I do think he'll look more like the #2 everyone hoped he would be last season.  I think he has talent, he's a hard worker, he had a bit of a disappointing season last year, and he's in line to get paid soon.  It's a great confluence of events that should result in a strong season in 2023-24.

I think we’re going to use him more as an afterthought this year. Let defenses forget about him like when he a #4 WR….Then hit him for a TD…. The ball is going to go to Diggs, then Kincaid, then everyone else….

[Warriorspikes51]

I wish we could see how he plays with a full season of healthy ankles and having less blocking responsibilities. Sherfield is a really good blocker, so perhaps he takes some of that off Gabe's plate 

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I disagree. I think his ankle was fine towards the latter part of the year and the playoffs. 

 

Gabe just under preformed and his skill set is limited. I'm not sure why that's so hard for people to understand? 

 

More specifically, the guy is not explosive nor quick off the ball. This results in extra time for Gabe to create seperation. He has stiffer hips and this contributes to the above. Thus, you see much more down the field throws as a result.

 

Last year, he wasn't particularly good at contested catches and had too many drops. 

 

At best Gabe is an average number two receiver. Personally, I think the Bills can do much better. I would not pay this guy anywhere near 10 million plus a year. 

 

However, he has another year with lots of motivation to do better. This year should be ibteresting.

 

 

 

You don't know what his best is. He very likely hasn't reached it yet. He's already an average #2. The numbers make that very clear even in a year when he was injured. He might easily get better. He also might not. We'll have to see.

 

The reason it's "so hard for people to understand" is that outside yourself you won't find so many people willing to assume that your guesses and assumptions are facts. And for good reason. Not that they should assume that about my guesses either. We're fans, we're on the outside. We don't know nearly as much as we think we do.

 

About the only thing we can be sure of is that without evidence, we can't be sure of all that much.

 

 

1 hour ago, falgobofu said:

I agree he was not up to par last year for whatever reason you want to come up with. I like Cover 1 and here are some stats that should show how important Davis is to this offense.

 

 

 

Sheesh. Hadn't seen that. Good stuff.

[Thurman#1]

57 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

I think we’re going to use him more as an afterthought this year. Let defenses forget about him like when he a #4 WR….Then hit him for a TD…. The ball is going to go to Diggs, then Kincaid, then everyone else….

 

 

IMO you're speeding up Kincaid's timetable. Wouldn't be surprised to see things look like this in 2024, but this year? Yeah, I doubt it. Hopefully we see things trend in that direction, especially near the end of the year, but I think he's going to take a bit of time. There are exceptions, but most TEs do, especially on teams that need to win in their rookie years.

[dorquemada]

19 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This is simply incorrect. Did he have an issue with drops? Yes. But to look at his targets v. catches is an incorrect metric in gauging his drops.

 

In a vacuum, he had 48 receptions on 92 targets.

 

But to really get an accurate figure, you need to look at his catchable target rate. His catchable target rate was 73.9% Meaning that just under 74% of his targets were deemed catchable. 

 

That means he really came down with 48 of 68 catchable balls. Making it 70.5% complete on target.

 

And even that metric doesn't mean he dropped 20 balls. The twenty balls he didn't come down with would include catchable balls being perfectly defended on.

 

He actually dropped 9 of those 20 catchable balls. His drop percentage was 9.7% Nowhere near the 50% many fans would like to claim. And of those 9 balls, it doesn't mean they all just hit him in the hands and he cleanly dropped them.

 

Long story short, he did drop some balls and it wasn't a great season, by and large. I think everyone agrees on that. 

 

But this idea that he dropped as many balls as he should have caught simply looking at 48 receptions on 92 targets is an oversimplified, incorrect method to say that he was worse than he was in a hyperbolic fashion.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/gabriel-davis/

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2023/02/13/4-players-not-meet-buffalo-bills-expectations-2022/2/

 

yeah i guess.  couldnt you say that about any receiver though?  And with that, Davis would still be unreliable compared to the others on the team? 

[BuffaloBill]

19 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This is simply incorrect. Did he have an issue with drops? Yes. But to look at his targets v. catches is an incorrect metric in gauging his drops.

 

In a vacuum, he had 48 receptions on 92 targets.

 

But to really get an accurate figure, you need to look at his catchable target rate. His catchable target rate was 73.9% Meaning that just under 74% of his targets were deemed catchable. 

 

That means he really came down with 48 of 68 catchable balls. Making it 70.5% complete on target.

 

And even that metric doesn't mean he dropped 20 balls. The twenty balls he didn't come down with would include catchable balls being perfectly defended on.

 

He actually dropped 9 of those 20 catchable balls. His drop percentage was 9.7% Nowhere near the 50% many fans would like to claim. And of those 9 balls, it doesn't mean they all just hit him in the hands and he cleanly dropped them.

 

Long story short, he did drop some balls and it wasn't a great season, by and large. I think everyone agrees on that. 

 

But this idea that he dropped as many balls as he should have caught simply looking at 48 receptions on 92 targets is an oversimplified, incorrect method to say that he was worse than he was in a hyperbolic fashion.

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/gabriel-davis/

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2023/02/13/4-players-not-meet-buffalo-bills-expectations-2022/2/

 

 

Excellent points.

 

I think fan expectations going into last season were sky high following the KC playoff performance. Hard to say if it was injury or other factors that simply left him way short of meeting those expectations.  In the end there was way too much of a production and talent drop off amongst the Bills WR’s after Diggs.

 

 

[Dr. K]

I expect Davis to bounce back this season. 

[PrimeTime101]

hopefully he has this laying around

 

 

[Kaenon]

The hate on Gabe on this forum is ridiculous.

 

How many other notably drafted WRs by the Bills went on to record 1950+ yards and 20 TDs in their first 3 seasons?

 

(4th) A. Reed? Yes on yards (2128), no on TDs (16)

(1st) Moulds? No (1942 yards, 11 TDs)

(2nd) Price? Yes on yards (2050), no on TDs (13)

(2nd) J. Reed? No

(1st) Evans? Yes on yards (2878), and yes on TDs (24)

(2nd) Parrish? No 

(2nd) Hardy? No 

(7th) S. Johnson? No

(3rd) TJ Graham? No 

(2nd) Woods? No

(3rd) Goodwin? No

(2 1sts) Watkins? Yes on yards (2459), no on TDs (17)

(2nd) Z. Jones? No

 

Statistically speaking, Davis's first 3 seasons are among the best of recent, modern-era NFL WRs drafted by the Buffalo Bills.

[gobills1212]

9 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

hopefully he has this laying around

 

 

This always makes me laugh because when they are walking to the line on the 2nd play, it all of a sudden looks like they are on the 5 yrd line after and before magically being far back enough for bombs

[The Wiz]

15 hours ago, Maynard said:

She has very nice hair, 

It has great bounce.

[billsfan89]

2022 was Davis's first year being a true WR2 and he had his struggles. He wasn't tragic but he wasn't the 1000-yard WR2 we all hoped he could be. The nagging ankle injury certainly didn't help but I do hope that Gabe has a better year in 2023. Contract year will certainly be some solid motivation and I think having a year being a primary WR will help him. Hopefully, the coaches coach him up and he learns from the tape. The Bills certainly need him to step into that WR2 role more consistently. While I love the addition on Kincaid rookie TE's historically tend to have modest impacts and while I do think Shakir can develop more the onus will still be on Davis to provide a consistent threat opposite Diggs.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You would be surprised the amount of people who look at 48/92 and claim he dropped half of his passes or that all 92 targets were catchable.

 

 

Yeah but that's said by them without context as well.    

 

They may also think that there are a lot of other receivers don't come down with a lot of passes thrown to them.    

 

There aren't.

 

He was 5th in drop % among all WR.........but all 4 of those with worse drop % also had much better catch % on targeted balls than Gabe.  

 

He was definitely the least reliable of all regularly targeted WR in the entire NFL in terms of coming down with a catch.

 

That's awful.

 

Hopefully the combination of more 12 personnel with Dalton Kincaid and a free agent walk year creates a new level of focus for him and he expands his route running skills while fixing his mechanics at the catch point so he not only stops dropping the one's he has no excuse for dropping but also starts winning some contested throws the way his size advantage suggests he should.   

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah but that's said by them without context as well.    

 

They may also think that there are a lot of other receivers don't come down with a lot of passes thrown to them.    

 

There aren't.

 

He was 5th in drop % among all WR.........but all 4 of those with worse drop % also had much better catch % on targeted balls than Gabe.  

 

He was definitely the least reliable of all regularly targeted WR in the entire NFL in terms of coming down with a catch.

 

That's awful.

 

Hopefully the combination of more 12 personnel with Dalton Kincaid and a free agent walk year creates a new level of focus for him and he expands his route running skills while fixing his mechanics at the catch point so he not only stops dropping the one's he has no excuse for dropping but also starts winning some contested throws the way his size advantage suggests he should.   

He also dropped a pass in the Vikings game on the Bills' final drive but the refs didn't review the call due to the Bills hustling to get the next play off (it was ruled a catch on the field even though it wasn't). And on the pick Allen threw in his own end in the first Jets game, I'd bet a lot of money that Davis ran the wrong route. Allen threw it in the opposite direction from which he turned. The next time they ran that play a game or two after that, he ran to the opposite spot of where he ran in the Jets game.

Edited May 9, 2023 by dave mcbride

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

You don't know what his best is. He very likely hasn't reached it yet. He's already an average #2. The numbers make that very clear even in a year when he was injured. He might easily get better. He also might not. We'll have to see.

 

The reason it's "so hard for people to understand" is that outside yourself you won't find so many people willing to assume that your guesses and assumptions are facts. And for good reason. Not that they should assume that about my guesses either. We're fans, we're on the outside. We don't know nearly as much as we think we do.

 

About the only thing we can be sure of is that without evidence, we can't be sure of all that much.

 

 

 

 

 

Sheesh. Hadn't seen that. Good stuff.

Stats also showed that Stevie Johnson was an average WR1.  Do you think he was an average WR1?   I think he was a poor WR1 that was only a WR1 because we had no one better and a good rapport with Fitz.  
 

Stats aren’t the say all end all.  Opportunity is.  
 

WR2’s that I’d definitely rather have over Davis:

Waddle

Higgins

Pickens

Kirk

Sutton

meyers

Mike Williams (or Allen whichever is wr2)

cooks

davonte Smith

godwin

hollywood brown

Aiyuk

Lockett 

guys that I’d rather have, but either haven’t proved it with stats- or have been injured:

Mooney

Dotson

Bateman/flowers

michael Thomas 

Lazzard and Davis

Alec Pierce

Jameson Williams

jordan addison

 

I don’t think he’s an average WR2.  Rather a solid 3rd option in the pass game/great 4th option.  
 

He has Josh allen throwing him passes on a team that was lacking in secondary reviving options other than 5’7 midgets.  opportunity matters
 

agree to disagree.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He also dropped a pass in the Vikings game on the Bills' final drive but the refs didn't review the call due to the Bills hustling to get the next play off (it was ruled a catch on the field even though it wasn't). And on the pick Allen threw in his own end in the first Jets game, I'd bet a lot of money that Davis ran the wrong route. Allen threw it in the opposite direction from which he turned. The next time they ran that play a game or two after that, he ran to the opposite spot of where he ran in the Jets game.

 

There was a play in the first Miami game where a ball hit his hands in the end zone and fell incomplete. It won't show up as a drop because the CB got his hands in there, but it's the kind of catch most WR2s will be able to pull down.

 

I don't want to boil down our failure to get the #1 seed to one play, but that one play quite literally may have been the difference. Similarly the play at the end of that Jets game wouldn't count as a drop because Sauce Gardner was there but again any capable WR2 would normally grab that one, and that one play too could have been the difference in us getting the #1 seed.

 

If he's going to be our WR2 this year he needs to just make a lot more plays. Allen gives his WRs a chance. Diggs has often times rewarded him for this trust. Davis hasn't far more often than not.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He also dropped a pass in the Vikings game on the Bills' final drive but the refs didn't review the call due to the Bills hustling to get the next play off (it was ruled a catch on the field even though it wasn't). And on the pick Allen threw in his own end in the first Jets game, I'd bet a lot of money that Davis ran the wrong route. Allen threw it in the opposite direction from which he turned. The next time they ran that play a game or two after that, he ran to the opposite spot of where he ran in the Jets game.

 

 

Yeah he was a hot mess as WR2 last season.  He just shouldn't be that guy for a SB team.    If Kincaid can bring the juice they hope from the slot and Gabe's targets can be cut significantly he stands a much better chance of getting CB3 matchups and getting his efficiency numbers up while continuing to be a big play guy.