Should Beane have made the trades that he did NOT make?

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The Bills and Rams are pretty fair comparisons, with both having good records (and thus likely both to have around the same draft position). Considering that the trades were only draft picks (aside from a backup CB that got cut) you can definitely analyze.

 

I doubt the Broncos, for example, were asking for a 1st round pick, while asking for a 2nd from the Bills.

 

.

 

Why are you assuming the ask was the same from both teams? You are making way too many assumptions not based on anything factual.

[Einstein]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with both your conclusions.   Ertz wasn't going to supercharge the offense, but Miller would have supercharged the defense.  I don't like those trades to bring in a star on a rental, but Miller is a superstar.  

Thanks Shaw.

39 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Why are you assuming the ask was the same from both teams?

 

What makes you assume it would be different?

 

39 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

You are making way too many assumptions not based on anything factual.

 

If every thread was required to be derived from fact then the forum would have about 5 total posts per year. This is a place to share thoughts and ideas. None of us know for “fact” if the defense will change under mcdermott, or if we will trade for hopkins, or what was said in draft meetings, or why the team fell apart at the end of the year… It’s all just opinions based on how the poster perceived each event.

What we DO know for fact is what each player was actually traded for.

 

The non factual part is the assumption that the trade terms would be drastically different for us. 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Ertz would have been like most deals in Buffalo’s history, a good player way past his prime. 
 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Many of us wanted Miller via trade. Not making that deal probably cost us the SuperBowl.  McD and Frazier's incompetence was the final error of the 2021 season. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Thanks Shaw.

 

What makes you assume it would be different?

 

 

If every thread was required to be derived from fact then the forum would have about 5 total posts per year. This is a place to share thoughts and ideas. None of us know for “fact” if the defense will change under mcdermott, or if we will trade for hopkins, or what was said in draft meetings, or why the team fell apart at the end of the year… It’s all just opinions based on how the poster perceived each event.

What we DO know for fact is what each player was actually traded for.

 

The non factual part is the assumption that the trade terms would be drastically different for us. 

 

 

Because GMs always talk about the fact that teams ask for different compensation from different teams. This is kinda common knowledge.

[Big Blitz]

Is this an Ed Oliver thread?

[Malazan]

46 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Is this an Ed Oliver thread?

 

Well, it is literally a Zach Ertz thread. We're back to the future. 

[ProcessTruster]

11 hours ago, teef said:

This ***** place. 

man the offseason is slow

[Santana]

I think at the very least we owe Beane the benefit of the doubt that he does everything he can to make the team better at all times.

[Ga boy]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Is this an Ed Oliver thread?

In 5 years, we’ll learn that we could’ve had Aaron Donald for a 3rd and Ed.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 minutes ago, Santana said:

I think at the very least we owe Beane the benefit of the doubt that he does everything he can to make the team better at all times.

This is fair. I have been mostly pleased with Beane's off-season moves over the years. At the time I and most of this board was even happy with the Benjamin trade. There have been a few I did not like. Frank Gore? Really?  I was admittedly a Shady fan. He has not done a great job with the OL but it is not for a lack of trying.  He's also had some bad luck with the O-line.  Spain was great for a year and then fell apart. Williams was a cheap great signing at RT and then when he got paid crapped the bed.  Morse has been up and down (more up than down).  Heck even Saffold looked solid the first month of the last season.  

What is hurting the team right now is the whiffs in the second round - Ford, Epenesa, and Basham all look to be busts at this point.  Bills are still dealing with the Ford miss and DE is still an issue. Now he has made up for it with excellent day 3 picks like Davis, Benford, Bass, and Jackson.  

 

[nedboy7]

A non trade cost us the SB.  How does someone truly see the complexity of a season or even a single play let alone the SB in this context.  It is absurd. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

16 hours ago, Einstein said:

We are now in the doldrums of the post-draft, pre-training- camp offseason, so how about a "what if" exercise? 

 

The trades Beane did NOT make

 

- In 2021, it was rumored that Ertz was heading to Buffalo and the infamous Ertz thread was spawned. Ertz also recently mentioned that the deal to Buffalo was very close. He ended up being sent to Arizona instead, in exchange for a backup CB (who ended up being cut the following training camp) and a 5th round pick in 2022. The Bills ended up taking Khalil Shakir with their 5th round pick in 2022.

 

- It was also rumored that the Bills were interested in Von Miller. The Rams ended up trading for Von Miller, spending a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the 2022 draft. The Broncos also agreed to pay $9M of Milers $9.7M contract - so monetarily, he was practically free. The Bills ended up taking James Cook and Terrell Bernard with their 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2022.

 

Assuming the compensation would be similar, do you think Beane should have pushed the trade button on either player?

 

Opinion

 

- This is kind of a push, but I think I'd rather have Khalil than a TE on the wrong side of 30. But then again, I was never as high on Ertz (from a difference making standpoint) as some others. I just don't think he would have made much of a difference in how that season ended. So in my opinion, Beane made the right decision in not trading for Ertz.

 

- On the other hand, I think Beane made a mistake in not trading for Von. I know it was just a rental at that point, but it was a rental that may have landed us a Lombardi Trophy. We needed just ONE more stop against Kansas City in the infamous 13-seconds game. Given how well Von did pre-injury with this defense, I find it highly likely that Von would have enabled us to get that one more stop, sending us back to the Championship game and perhaps a date with destiny. Add in the fact that he was practically free from a cap standpoint (Denver paid $9M of the $9.7M remaining salary for the season), and the fact that I'd rather have a Super Bowl than a RB and an undersized LB.... and I think Beane should have made the trade.

 

How do you analyze these almost trades?

 

 

I guess the answer is it depends.  On the Von trade, there's often under the table conversations going on.  Did he know there would be a good chance the Bills could resign Von.  If so then would lean towards yes.  But also need to know if same trade deal was offered to Bills.

[NewEra]

12 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Many of us wanted Miller via trade. Not making that deal probably cost us the SuperBowl.  McD and Frazier's incompetence was the final error of the 2021 season. 

“Probably cost us the Super Bowl”

 

lol.  That’s a you post for sure. 
 

“it may have cost us a Super Bowl” is logical, but it wouldn’t be so negative.  Hence why you wrote what you did.  🙄 per usual

39 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

A non trade cost us the SB.  How does someone truly see the complexity of a season or even a single play let alone the SB in this context.  It is absurd. 

absurd = the posters MO

[ChevyVanMiller]

I just thank the football Gods daily that the Antonio Brown trade was never consummated. #unansweredprayers 🙏

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

A non trade cost us the SB.  How does someone truly see the complexity of a season or even a single play let alone the SB in this context.  It is absurd. 

Im going to assume you watched the Chiefs playoff game.

You don't think a healthy Von Miller makes a difference as Mahommes ran around all first half extending drives? 

Of course it is complex, but its also a message board thread about things that didn't happen. You are supposed to imagine the outcomes and have fun discussing it.

My bet is if you poll this board most would say we probably (not may) would have won the KC game and the SuperBowl with Miller. 

Contrary I dont think a healthy White would have mattered that much in that game but I suspect most would disagree with me on that point. 

Remember its just a message board meant for fun. 

 

Oh and Beane probably agrees since he broke the bank to get Miller only a few months later.

[nedboy7]

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Im going to assume you watched the Chiefs playoff game.

You don't think a healthy Von Miller makes a difference as Mahommes ran around all first half extending drives? 

Of course it is complex, but its also a message board thread about things that didn't happen. You are supposed to imagine the outcomes and have fun discussing it.

My bet is if you poll this board most would say we probably (not may) would have won the KC game and the SuperBowl with Miller. 

Contrary I dont think a healthy White would have mattered that much in that game but I suspect most would disagree with me on that point. 

Remember its just a message board meant for fun. 

 

Oh and Beane probably agrees since he broke the bank to get Miller only a few months later.

 

Oh I'm having fun dont worry.  Doesn't mean I think having Von would have yielded a different result.  I find these specific arguments lacking any substance.  As if had we won the KC game we would have steamrolled the Rams.  Nonsense. 

[Matt_In_NH]

You have to draw the line somewhere you can't just give up the farm in every negotiation, I trust him to define where the line is.

[Fleezoid]

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

58 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Oh I'm having fun dont worry.  Doesn't mean I think having Von would have yielded a different result.  I find these specific arguments lacking any substance.  As if had we won the KC game we would have steamrolled the Rams.  Nonsense. 

Well we agree on one thing. Message board threads on imaginary non events are most assuredly lacking in substance.