Einstein Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 We are now in the doldrums of the post-draft, pre-training- camp offseason, so how about a "what if" exercise? The trades Beane did NOT make - In 2021, it was rumored that Ertz was heading to Buffalo and the infamous Ertz thread was spawned. Ertz also recently mentioned that the deal to Buffalo was very close. He ended up being sent to Arizona instead, in exchange for a backup CB (who ended up being cut the following training camp) and a 5th round pick in 2022. The Bills ended up taking Khalil Shakir with their 5th round pick in 2022. - It was also rumored that the Bills were interested in Von Miller. The Rams ended up trading for Von Miller, spending a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the 2022 draft. The Broncos also agreed to pay $9M of Milers $9.7M contract - so monetarily, he was practically free. The Bills ended up taking James Cook and Terrell Bernard with their 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2022. Assuming the compensation would be similar, do you think Beane should have pushed the trade button on either player? Opinion - This is kind of a push, but I think I'd rather have Khalil than a TE on the wrong side of 30. But then again, I was never as high on Ertz (from a difference making standpoint) as some others. I just don't think he would have made much of a difference in how that season ended. So in my opinion, Beane made the right decision in not trading for Ertz. - On the other hand, I think Beane made a mistake in not trading for Von. I know it was just a rental at that point, but it was a rental that may have landed us a Lombardi Trophy. We needed just ONE more stop against Kansas City in the infamous 13-seconds game. Given how well Von did pre-injury with this defense, I find it highly likely that Von would have enabled us to get that one more stop, sending us back to the Championship game and perhaps a date with destiny. Add in the fact that he was practically free from a cap standpoint (Denver paid $9M of the $9.7M remaining salary for the season), and the fact that I'd rather have a Super Bowl than a RB and an undersized LB.... and I think Beane should have made the trade. How do you analyze these almost trades? 5 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) You don't because you don't know what compensation the team was looking for from the Bills as it is not always the same when dealing with different teams. Too many things you don't know to bother thinking about it. Edited May 7, 2023 by Big Turk 3 6 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 This ***** place. 1 2 18 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Big Turk said: You don't because you don't know what compensation the team was looking for from the Bills as it is not always the same when dealing with different teams. The Bills and Rams are pretty fair comparisons, with both having good records (and thus likely both to have around the same draft position). Considering that the trades were only draft picks (aside from a backup CB that got cut) you can definitely analyze. I doubt the Broncos, for example, were asking for a 1st round pick, while asking for a 2nd from the Bills. . Edited May 7, 2023 by Einstein 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 It takes two sides to make the trade... how do you know that the other side was being reasonable with what they wanted? Maybe the Broncos didnt want to trade Miller to another AFC team.. although it would have been nice to have him on board for the 2021 playoff run.. We arent privy to the full details of the negotiations to spend time worrying about this... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardyBoy Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Broncos might have wanted more if they were trading Miller in conference, though they weren't really in the running that year and it was a theoretical rental... just something to think about though in terms of compensation. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 1 minute ago, HardyBoy said: Broncos might have wanted more if they were trading Miller in conference That's a great point. But considering it was a rental and the Broncos were terrible that season, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't care as much about the inter-conference trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: It takes two sides to make the trade... how do you know that the other side was being reasonable with what they wanted? Can we just pin this post to the top of TSW? 🙏 5 minutes ago, teef said: This ***** place. Annnnd, maybe this one too (did lolz) 🤣 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, teef said: This ***** place. Just... lol... I am with you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 24 minutes ago, Big Turk said: You don't because you don't know what compensation the team was looking for from the Bills as it is not always the same when dealing with different teams. Too many things you don't know to bother thinking about it. Bing~ Bang~ BOOM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 I think you're forgetting the Antonio Brown trade... before AB blew it up 🤣 We dodged a bullet there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 36 minutes ago, teef said: This ***** place. Remember that scene in Ghostbusters where Bill Murray zaps the kid who is struggling with his ESP skills? I will send a Christmas/Holiday card for the rest of my life to anybody who develops and employs the technology that will do the same thing to anyone who wants to talk about proposed trades. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Didn’t someone else just start another Ertz thread?? doldrums indeed…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardyBoy Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Einstein said: That's a great point. But considering it was a rental and the Broncos were terrible that season, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't care as much about the inter-conference trade. Absolutely, but at the same time I'm sure they establish a draft value chart in advance have the operational maturity to stick to it to avoid making mistakes, or more so allowing potentially lame duck gms to burn the future to try and win now...in conference trades would require higher value assets than out of conference trades to score the same on that value chart I would think. On the flip side though, if you're close to a super bowl, that chart probably helps you keep from going all in for a superbowl and screwing your future...as well as it worked out for the rams, the odds of that going well were really low, and they had to have a bunch of highly unlikely events happen to beat Tampa Bay to even have a chance to win a super bowl... the rams kind of objectively screwed up big time, it just happened to work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ngbills Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 I wanted TJ Hock last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Einstein said: That's a great point. But considering it was a rental and the Broncos were terrible that season, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't care as much about the inter-conference trade. I’m just thinking back to the 2018 draft… we had a deal in place with Denver for Pick #5 so we could draft Josh Allen. Elway said he’d make the deal as long as his guy wasn’t on the board (Bradley Chubb). I believe we were giving up #12 and #22 to move up to 5. Pick 5 was worth 1700 points. Pick 12 and 22 were worth 1980. We ended up giving (12, 53 and 56) which came out to 1910 for pick 7 which was 1500. It was a difference of two slots (5 to 7) - it just seems like Elway played a little more hardball with us than the Buccaneers. I’m sure Tampa could’ve forced our hand for the other RD1 pick if the sent something back considering the value we gave up was about the same. That extra RD1 was important to us at the time… but obviously they would move it to get a QB. Could be a conference thing? Might be reading too much into it, might not be. Edited May 8, 2023 by JGMcD2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Einstein Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 2 hours ago, teef said: This ***** place. Sorry. Just trying to bring some discussion other than "the pick was great... no, the pick sucked!!!" we have all read for the past week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Einstein said: We are now in the doldrums of the post-draft, pre-training- camp offseason, so how about a "what if" exercise? The trades Beane did NOT make - In 2021, it was rumored that Ertz was heading to Buffalo and the infamous Ertz thread was spawned. Ertz also recently mentioned that the deal to Buffalo was very close. He ended up being sent to Arizona instead, in exchange for a backup CB (who ended up being cut the following training camp) and a 5th round pick in 2022. The Bills ended up taking Khalil Shakir with their 5th round pick in 2022. - It was also rumored that the Bills were interested in Von Miller. The Rams ended up trading for Von Miller, spending a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the 2022 draft. The Broncos also agreed to pay $9M of Milers $9.7M contract - so monetarily, he was practically free. The Bills ended up taking James Cook and Terrell Bernard with their 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2022. Assuming the compensation would be similar, do you think Beane should have pushed the trade button on either player? Opinion - This is kind of a push, but I think I'd rather have Khalil than a TE on the wrong side of 30. But then again, I was never as high on Ertz (from a difference making standpoint) as some others. I just don't think he would have made much of a difference in how that season ended. So in my opinion, Beane made the right decision in not trading for Ertz. - On the other hand, I think Beane made a mistake in not trading for Von. I know it was just a rental at that point, but it was a rental that may have landed us a Lombardi Trophy. We needed just ONE more stop against Kansas City in the infamous 13-seconds game. Given how well Von did pre-injury with this defense, I find it highly likely that Von would have enabled us to get that one more stop, sending us back to the Championship game and perhaps a date with destiny. Add in the fact that he was practically free from a cap standpoint (Denver paid $9M of the $9.7M remaining salary for the season), and the fact that I'd rather have a Super Bowl than a RB and an undersized LB.... and I think Beane should have made the trade. How do you analyze these almost trades? I agree with both your conclusions. Ertz wasn't going to supercharge the offense, but Miller would have supercharged the defense. I don't like those trades to bring in a star on a rental, but Miller is a superstar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: I agree with both your conclusions. Ertz wasn't going to supercharge the offense, but Miller would have supercharged the defense. I don't like those trades to bring in a star on a rental, but Miller is a superstar. And miller isn’t a rental Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Einstein said: Sorry. Just trying to bring some discussion other than "the pick was great... no, the pick sucked!!!" we have all read for the past week. yea, no offense? We have read most of this the last 5 months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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