12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

100% correct. Beane has not had a 1st rounder bust. People can question whether Tremaine ever fulfilled his full potential and can ask the same with Ed but they are both, unquestionably, good NFL players. 

 

If only his record on day 2 was as good. I think Beane has been one of the best round 1 drafters and one of the best day 3 drafters. His day two record...

 

Harrison Phillips (never a starter and walked after 1 contract)

Cody Ford (never nailed a starting role and traded after 3 seasons)

Devin Singletary (starter but walked after 1 contract)

Dawson Knox (good starter, re-signed to a second contract)

AJ Epenesa (never been more than a rotational player going into contract year)

Zack Moss (traded away early in 3rd year)

Boogie Basham (still buried on the depth chart going into year 3)

Spencer Brown (starter who showed some flashes as a rookie, bad second season, going into vital 3rd year)

 

Won't breakdown Cook and Bernard as 1 year probably isn't sufficient to take a view but it's a poor record with Dawson Knox the one success story. 

 

I don't think this list is that bad when you factor this is rounds 2 and 3 and essentially 4 of them are or have been starting players in this league.  Devin and Knox were key starters and contributors, Brown has been a starter, but coming off a down year after injuries where like you said this is the year to either lock that starting spot down, or show he isn't the long term solution.  Then Harry didn't become a starter here with Ed and Star here, but he was signed away for the Bills to be a starter and still is the starter for the Vikings.  

 

Boogie and AJE are kind of in the same boat as Harry was, stuck down on the depth chart behind guys we have heavy investments in (currently a 1st rounder in Groot and a gazillion dollars in Von).  But both have had some flashes, and I think both still have the potential to be starters in this league.  By no means am I declaring they would for sure be starters else where, just saying neither of them has had a real shot here to earn that starting spot yet.  AJE was stuck behind 2 pretty good vets his rookie year, then they drafted both Groot and Boogie the next year and still had the same 2 vets here as well.  Then when they leave, they gave a gazillion dollars to Von and also brought back Shaq who played pretty well too.

 

Then you still have Cook and Bernard making it 10 picks...one of which looks to be on his way to being a good player, the other we are about to find out if has anything to offer now that Edmunds is gone.  

 

So when I look at this track record, I don't think its as bad as people think personally.  Could it be better sure, but it is also not the trainwreck some other posters make it out to be either.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't think this list is that bad when you factor this is rounds 2 and 3 and essentially 4 of them are or have been starting players in this league.  Devin and Knox were key starters and contributors, Brown has been a starter, but coming off a down year after injuries where like you said this is the year to either lock that starting spot down, or show he isn't the long term solution.  Then Harry didn't become a starter here with Ed and Star here, but he was signed away for the Bills to be a starter and still is the starter for the Vikings.  

 

Boogie and AJE are kind of in the same boat as Harry was, stuck down on the depth chart behind guys we have heavy investments in (currently a 1st rounder in Groot and a gazillion dollars in Von).  But both have had some flashes, and I think both still have the potential to be starters in this league.  By no means am I declaring they would for sure be starters else where, just saying neither of them has had a real shot here to earn that starting spot yet.  AJE was stuck behind 2 pretty good vets his rookie year, then they drafted both Groot and Boogie the next year and still had the same 2 vets here as well.  Then when they leave, they gave a gazillion dollars to Von and also brought back Shaq who played pretty well too.

 

Then you still have Cook and Bernard making it 10 picks...one of which looks to be on his way to being a good player, the other we are about to find out if has anything to offer now that Edmunds is gone.  

 

So when I look at this track record, I don't think its as bad as people think personally.  Could it be better sure, but it is also not the trainwreck some other posters make it out to be either.  

 

I can't think of a single team AJE or Boogie start for. I don't think 1 out of 8 who starts for the team beyond a first contract is a good outcome. 

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't think this list is that bad when you factor this is rounds 2 and 3 and essentially 4 of them are or have been starting players in this league.  Devin and Knox were key starters and contributors, Brown has been a starter, but coming off a down year after injuries where like you said this is the year to either lock that starting spot down, or show he isn't the long term solution.  Then Harry didn't become a starter here with Ed and Star here, but he was signed away for the Bills to be a starter and still is the starter for the Vikings.  

 

Boogie and AJE are kind of in the same boat as Harry was, stuck down on the depth chart behind guys we have heavy investments in (currently a 1st rounder in Groot and a gazillion dollars in Von).  But both have had some flashes, and I think both still have the potential to be starters in this league.  By no means am I declaring they would for sure be starters else where, just saying neither of them has had a real shot here to earn that starting spot yet.  AJE was stuck behind 2 pretty good vets his rookie year, then they drafted both Groot and Boogie the next year and still had the same 2 vets here as well.  Then when they leave, they gave a gazillion dollars to Von and also brought back Shaq who played pretty well too.

 

Then you still have Cook and Bernard making it 10 picks...one of which looks to be on his way to being a good player, the other we are about to find out if has anything to offer now that Edmunds is gone.  

 

So when I look at this track record, I don't think its as bad as people think personally.  Could it be better sure, but it is also not the trainwreck some other posters make it out to be either.  

It's definitely not a trainwreck

 

Its like they prioritize not missing value in the mid rounds which is why you get a lot of the high floor guys the league is littered with, people hate the safe picks but that's how NFL rosters are built

 

Whether they should start taking more risks wrt where the Bills are at in their SB trajectory is a conversation worth having however imo 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Correction, Allen has gotten us 4 playoff wins.  Most of Beane's biggest draft picks that you refer to have flopped come playoff time.  And we have yet to advance beyond the divisional round more than once generally having underachieved.  

 

 

 

 And Josh Allen is a draft pick Beane made, so @Allen2Diggsstatement is still correct.

 

 Was the 2021 playoff loss to the Chiefs Beane’s fault? Allen obviously played lights out that year in the playoffs, but Singletary(3), Knox(2) & Davis(5) combined for 10 of our 12 TDs in those 2 games. All Beane draft picks. Add Doyle's TD into the mix and that's 11 combined TDs in 2 games by players drafted by Beane. Sanders TD against the Pats was the only TD scored by someone not drafted by Beane.

 

 Add to that our top passer, our top 2 rushers and our top 2 receivers in the 2021 playoffs were Beane draft picks.

 

He's not a perfect GM, but we've made the playoffs for 4 straight years and have a winning record over the last 3 years in the playoffs. Very few teams can say that.

 

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

10 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Little cranky today huh ? 

Maybe PBF81 just got up on the wrong side of the bottle? 🤔

[stevestojan]

Are we saying Beane is good at his job?

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 And Josh Allen is a draft pick Beane made, so @Allen2Diggsstatement is still correct.

 

 Was the 2021 playoff loss to the Chiefs Beane’s fault? Allen obviously played lights out that year in the playoffs, but Singletary(3), Knox(2) & Davis(5) combined for 10 of our 12 TDs in those 2 games. All Beane draft picks. Add Doyle's TD into the mix and that's 11 combined TDs in 2 games by players drafted by Beane. Sanders TD against the Pats was the only TD scored by someone not drafted by Beane.

 

 Add to that our top passer, our top 2 rushers and our top 2 receivers in the 2021 playoffs were Beane draft picks.

 

He's not a perfect GM, but we've made the playoffs for 4 straight years and have a winning record over the last 3 years in the playoffs. Very few teams can say that.  

 

We're so far away from the original comments.  You're talking offense, how many of those players above were draft picks in rounds 1-3.  Just sayin'.   That's the problem with these threads, they digress and it's impossible to focus on the original statements argued both ways.  

 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We're so far away from the original comments.  You're talking offense, how many of those players above were draft picks in rounds 1-3.  Just sayin'.   That's the problem with these threads, they digress and it's impossible to focus on the original statements argued both ways.  

 

 

 

 Ok. Josh, Singletary & Knox were all drafted in the first 3 rounds. All did well in the 2021 playoffs. Also Edmunds was our leading tackler and throw in a sack each by Oliver & Basham. 

 

 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

I love regular season wins..it’s a good thing I stop watching when the playoffs start.

[DCofNC]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

It could also be if you don't think that the player's worth the money but you don't have an immediate replacement, hence as a temporary plug until you can draft a guy or get a free agent to replace him.  IOW, you're not going to sign him under any circumstances, but he's worth the 5th year option price but not worth the money he's seeking in a long-term contract.  Oliver's kind of in that boat.  He'll get more than he's worth, but for the $10M he's getting this year, Beane doesn't have much choice and he knows the system.  There would be a chemistry learning curve with a newbie, not to mention risk there too.  Oliver's not worth the money but it's also far from being a ripoff.   Beane will have to address that next offseason though.  

 

 

But, you have to declare the option after year 3 so that’s not really part of the deal.

[PBF81]

39 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

But, you have to declare the option after year 3 so that’s not really part of the deal.

 

True, good point.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can't think of a single team AJE or Boogie start for. I don't think 1 out of 8 who starts for the team beyond a first contract is a good outcome. 

 

Its not 1 of 8, no disrespect but that is quite the exaggeration, especially since 3 of the 8 were starters almost their whole time here (Devin, Knox, and Brown) and we still have guys where we don't know yet how they will turn out.  Plus, Harry became a starter after he left here and wasn't buried behind a #9 overall pick and Star.  So really, that is 4 guys who proved they can start in this league.  But strictly in terms of the Bills, that is 3.  

 

And regardless of your opinion on AJE and Boogie, the facts are they have been buried and not really been given a chance to start here.  I am by no means saying they could for sure start somewhere else, but they have been stuck behind quality veterans, a first round pick, and Von Miller.  So I don't think its fair to say they for sure can't start elsewhere when they have not been really given a chance to start here, a team that uses a heavy rotation in the first place.  

 

And Cook and Bernard both will be given shots to be significant players for us this year, and Cook especially has shown quite a bit of promise.  

 

So, I stand by what I said...its not as bad as some are making it out to be.  Doesn't mean its as good as his other picks, but its not a total trainwreck and has the potential to be better still.  If Brown and Cook prove to be good players this year for us, then it already looks a lot better.  And if Bernard proves to be solid or better, then this group of 10 picks starts to look pretty good.  

 

 

[Chaos]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

Beane has only made three first round picks who have been eligible to have their fifth-year option picked up. Of those, only Josh Allen has been extended.  Not exactly a great track record. Nice try, though.

I am trying to understand how he is 100%

[Mr. WEO]

21 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

The players that Beane drafted have gotten us 4 playoff wins so far after the Bills hadn't even been to the playoffs the prior 17 years.

 

Compared to zero, even 1 is infinitely larger.....

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Agreed, I am just saying picking up 5th year options should not be the measuring stick.  It is one piece of information.

We did not pick up edmunds. We did not pick up oliver. How is Beane 100%. Willing to learn. 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Ok. Josh, Singletary & Knox were all drafted in the first 3 rounds. All did well in the 2021 playoffs. Also Edmunds was our leading tackler and throw in a sack each by Oliver & Basham. 

 

 

 

BTW, the topic (and thread) were about Contracts.  So stick with it.  F-O-C-U-S.  I have faith in you, I do.  

 

Singletary and Knox were small contracts, not the biggest.  Singletary's gone, for cheap.  Knox's was also tiny.  2nd and 3rd round rookie contracts are never huge.  You know that, come on.  Allen is Allen and no one's questioning that single pick.  I'll toss in that Diggs, our $24M/year money man, has averaged 4 catches for 45 yards and not a TD to be found in four of his last 5 playoff games, and has had 0 TDs in our last five playoff games, including the two against KC and one vs. Cincy.  

 

As to Oliver and Basham, the latter's contract alwo wasn't huge, very small.  Again, he's hardly one of our players that is expected to make an impact, and it shouldn't surprise you if he doesn't even make the roster this year.  

 

As to Oliver, good size but not huge contract, they're not going to extend him, but in 8 playoff games that he's been in since he's been here, he's averaged 2-1/2 total tackles (Solo & Asst) per game, 1 each TFL and QBH every other game, and 1 sack every 4 games, 2 total, and one of those 2 sacks was on Skylar Thompson.  That's what you're bragging on there.  

 

Let's put this to rest, can we.  
 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Most fans felt Oliver and Edmunds were overpaid on their 5th year. Both will likely sign for much larger salaries than their 5th year. Average players clean up in free agency. Could be a common theme in Buffalo because our QB is going to make a lot and we can’t sign average players to top contracts. Bad teams will sign our average players.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Ethan in Cleveland]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We did not pick up edmunds. We did not pick up oliver. How is Beane 100%. Willing to learn. 

What are you talking about? Both players had their options picked up.  Edmunds wasn't extended. And we don't know what is going to happen with Oliver.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

What are you talking about? Both players had their options picked up.  Edmunds wasn't extended. And we don't know what is going to happen with Oliver.

As I’ve predicted they will sign one of Davis and Oliver. Davis will sign a 2nd tier WR contract around $14 million per season this summer. Oliver will walk in UFA. Look for Davis to sign a similar deal as Knox last year.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Most fans felt Oliver and Edmunds were overpaid on their 5th year. Both will likely sign for much larger salaries than their 5h year. Average players clean up in free agency. Could be a common theme in Buffalo because our QB is going to make a lot and we can sign average players to top contracts. Bad teams will sign our average players.

Actually most fans don't. Most of us think the decision to pick up the options made good sense. Bills were not in a position to move on from Edmunds in 2022 and they are not ready to move on from Oliver in 2023. 

Not committing huge dollars long term to Edmunds was correct. Letting Oliver walk after 2023 will also be the right decision.