12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:

Correct. It’s really unclear how picking up a 5th year contract is a sign of successful drafting. It very well could be a sign of not being able to cut your loses or a poor use of available salary cap. Sometimes it’s cheaper to sign these players for less than the going rate of the 5th year option. 

Nahh, I think it's a pretty strong indicator that you're at least drafting starting-quality players with your first round draft picks and not wasting them on silly things like Guards, RBs and off-ball Linebackers.  Maybe a better indicator is players who get contract extensions...  

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Of note:

 

Some of those declined options are very related to the fact that the players do not play premium positions.   

 

A player doesn't have to reach his potential by year 3 for a team to pick up his 5th year option..............but if he hasn't yet........the potential cap hit better be reasonable for that position.

 

Exactly, especially for Guards and off-ball linebackers, who, for fifth-year option salary purposes, are lumped with offensive tackles and edge-rushing linebackers, respectively.  You could argue that that's really a system flaw, but still...

[Matt_In_NH]

Mike Mayock on the other hand is 100% in first round picks not getting to their 3rd year.

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

100% correct. Beane has not had a 1st rounder bust. People can question whether Tremaine ever fulfilled his full potential and can ask the same with Ed but they are both, unquestionably, good NFL players. 

 

If only his record on day 2 was as good. I think Beane has been one of the best round 1 drafters and one of the best day 3 drafters. His day two record...

 

Harrison Phillips (never a starter and walked after 1 contract)

Cody Ford (never nailed a starting role and traded after 3 seasons)

Devin Singletary (starter but walked after 1 contract)

Dawson Knox (good starter, re-signed to a second contract)

AJ Epenesa (never been more than a rotational player going into contract year)

Zack Moss (traded away early in 3rd year)

Boogie Basham (still buried on the depth chart going into year 3)

Spencer Brown (starter who showed some flashes as a rookie, bad second season, going into vital 3rd year)

 

Won't breakdown Cook and Bernard as 1 year probably isn't sufficient to take a view but it's a poor record with Dawson Knox the one success story. 

Interesting observation about Day 2.   The data set is too small to draw conclusions, but it sure looks like you're correct about this.  I have a theory:

 

McBeane have been very clear that they want to draft only guys who are personality and character fits - growth mindset, fiercely competitive, team oriented, etc.  I've always thought the draft breaks down nicely along the same lines as the days of the draft - first round you have guys who are high probability starters, second and third round you have guys who should be starters but are lower probability, and fourth round and beyond you have guys who are good enough to have a shot but it's a crap shoot as far as who will make it and who won't.   

 

I think that the McBeane approach works best in the first round and on day three.  It works in the first round because the only way guys become sure fire starters (first-round) talent is by having the McBeane character.   You don't find guys in the first round who blow off practice or go partying or whatever.   Just about all of those guys have been weeded out.   So, Beane is picking from the full range of guys who are available because they all pass the character test.  On day three it works because by then the truly elite talent is gone and what's left are a lot of guys, all of whom have more or less similar physical gifts.   Among guys like that, McBeane's character-first approach gives them a higher yield, because those guys will do EVERYTHING they have to do to make it.  

 

On day two, it's different.  Day two guys are guys that the coaches really like, if only they could get them to do something more or something different.   Maybe it's just get them to work harder.   Maybe it's learn to play in space.  Maybe it's to get more focused on football.  So, for some of these players, it's really learn to be dedicated like McBeane players are dedicated.  But Beane won't take those, because their whole system is that they only want guys who already are dedicated like that.  That would limit Beane's yield in two ways.  First, it means Beane is passing on some high-end talent that just needs to grow up a bit.  Some of those guys grow up, but not with the Bills.  Second, it means the guys Beane takes in the second are guys who already are doing everything they can think of to get better.   So, compared to the guys Beane doesn't take, they have lower ceilings.   What we all fear is that Bernard is a good example of that - a guy who was doing everything right already just isn't going to be able to step up another level.   If he could, he would have gone in round 1.  

 

It's a bias that favors the Little Engine that Could.  In round six, the Little Engine that Could is a good strategy.  In round three, not so much.  

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Interesting observation about Day 2.   The data set is too small to draw conclusions, but it sure looks like you're correct about this.  I have a theory:

 

McBeane have been very clear that they want to draft only guys who are personality and character fits - growth mindset, fiercely competitive, team oriented, etc.  I've always thought the draft breaks down nicely along the same lines as the days of the draft - first round you have guys who are high probability starters, second and third round you have guys who should be starters but are lower probability, and fourth round and beyond you have guys who are good enough to have a shot but it's a crap shoot as far as who will make it and who won't.   

 

I think that the McBeane approach works best in the first round and on day three.  It works in the first round because the only way guys become sure fire starters (first-round) talent is by having the McBeane character.   You don't find guys in the first round who blow off practice or go partying or whatever.   Just about all of those guys have been weeded out.   So, Beane is picking from the full range of guys who are available because they all pass the character test.  On day three it works because by then the truly elite talent is gone and what's left are a lot of guys, all of whom have more or less similar physical gifts.   Among guys like that, McBeane's character-first approach gives them a higher yield, because those guys will do EVERYTHING they have to do to make it.  

 

On day two, it's different.  Day two guys are guys that the coaches really like, if only they could get them to do something more or something different.   Maybe it's just get them to work harder.   Maybe it's learn to play in space.  Maybe it's to get more focused on football.  So, for some of these players, it's really learn to be dedicated like McBeane players are dedicated.  But Beane won't take those, because their whole system is that they only want guys who already are dedicated like that.  That would limit Beane's yield in two ways.  First, it means Beane is passing on some high-end talent that just needs to grow up a bit.  Some of those guys grow up, but not with the Bills.  Second, it means the guys Beane takes in the second are guys who already are doing everything they can think of to get better.   So, compared to the guys Beane doesn't take, they have lower ceilings.   What we all fear is that Bernard is a good example of that - a guy who was doing everything right already just isn't going to be able to step up another level.   If he could, he would have gone in round 1.  

 

It's a bias that favors the Little Engine that Could.  In round six, the Little Engine that Could is a good strategy.  In round three, not so much.  

 

 

There is definitely something in this. Day 2 is either the higher ceiling guys with flags (some of those may just be about rawness of their game some will be off field issues) or it is the safe higher floor, low ceiling guys who are a bit more lunch pail. Given those choices Beane's preference has generally been for the latter. In fact Knox and Spencer Brown are probably the two "swings" they have taken on day 2. Generally they have taken safer guys. 

 

I'm not sure Bernard would ever have gone in round 1 though. I didn't look at him pre-draft, admittedly, but I did watch some of him post draft and pre-season and there was nothing there that blew me away in any facet of his game. I think that one might just be that they whiffed. Boogie was a whiff too. I think they thought he was a swing for the fences guy, not a high floor guy. He isn't the player they thought he was IMO. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Exactly, especially for Guards and off-ball linebackers, who, for fifth-year option salary purposes, are lumped with offensive tackles and edge-rushing linebackers, respectively.  You could argue that that's really a system flaw, but still...

 

And if I were in the owner's position, I wouldn't change that.    Having a salary hierarchy is to management's advantage.  The NFL doesn't want an NBA or MLB system where any position can be your superstars.   That inflates costs.  

 

And by gently "punishing" teams for not using 1st round picks on premium positions it re-inforces the value of that hierarchy of positions that they've created.

 

I think the NFLPA would strongly prefer that the 5th year option be more reflective of the positional value so those options get picked up..........but the owners aren't just going to give that to them.   Some think these guys all just want a shot at free agency but in the big picture guaranteeing big year 5 salaries after year 3 is a big win for players on the whole and a bargaining chip.     

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is definitely something in this. Day 2 is either the higher ceiling guys with flags (some of those may just be about rawness of their game some will be off field issues) or it is the safe higher floor, low ceiling guys who are a bit more lunch pail. Given those choices Beane's preference has generally been for the latter. In fact Knox and Spencer Brown are probably the two "swings" they have taken on day 2. Generally they have taken safer guys. 

 

I'm not sure Bernard would ever have gone in round 1 though. I didn't look at him pre-draft, admittedly, but I did watch some of him post draft and pre-season and there was nothing there that blew me away in any facet of his game. I think that one might just be that they whiffed. Boogie was a whiff too. I think they thought he was a swing for the fences guy, not a high floor guy. He isn't the player they thought he was IMO. 

I agree about Bernard.  Didn't mean to suggest he was a first rounder.  I meant the opposite - that he over-achieved into day two.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by Shaw66

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm not sure Bernard would ever have gone in round 1 though. I didn't look at him pre-draft, admittedly, but I did watch some of him post draft and pre-season and there was nothing there that blew me away in any facet of his game. I think that one might just be that they whiffed.

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on Dorian Williams. I know you gave him a low 3rd/high 4th grade but I have seen some compare the pick to Terrell Bernard. Since you scouted both, do you agree with that comparison? Or does Williams have more to work with?

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

2017 - not a great team that outperformed expectations. D gave up 10 pts

2019 - in it to the end and without the phantom illegal block call probably win it. D only gave up 22 including overtime

2020 - let a mediocre team hang around in the Colts. D allowed 24 pts; D dominated Baltimore allowing only 3 pts; outclassed by the Chiefs

2021 - crushed the Patsies D only gave up 17 and they were playing backups fairly early on; should have won against the Chiefs but the D could not stop Mahomes

2022 - team was out of sorts for both games - I truly believe they were emotionally spent. Barely beat an overmatched Dolphins team and were no-shows against the Bengals.

 

Given this I think it is unfair to say the D does not show up in the playoffs with the exception of the last few minutes of 2021 and this year’s playoffs.

 

Let's focus on the latter three years as a good GM improves his team over time.  

 

Quote

 

2020 - let a mediocre team hang around in the Colts. D allowed 24 pts; D dominated Baltimore allowing only 3 pts; outclassed by the Chiefs

2021 - crushed the Patsies D only gave up 17 and they were playing backups fairly early on; should have won against the Chiefs but the D could not stop Mahomes

2022 - team was out of sorts for both games - I truly believe they were emotionally spent. Barely beat an overmatched Dolphins team and were no-shows against the Bengals.

 

 

Baltimore is the only one.  You're really not going to cite NE with Jones in his rookie season and not a WR to mention on the team,  at home for us, are you?  I'd hardly call that a feat.  

 

I'm not sure how that is demonstrating how the D didn't show up.  We also no-showed, at home, for Cincy before Hamlin got hurt in that game, it's hardly as if we were shutting them down.  

 

In five of those playoff games we allowed over 32 PPG.  That's good?   We must have different standards.  Unfortunately we don't play Baltimore or teams with rookie QBs the caliber of Mac Jones in the playoffs very often.  

 

For reference purposes, in 2020, when we "held" the Chiefs to 38, the Browns and their 21st ranked D held them to 22, and the Bucs and their 8th ranked D held them to 9.  Together those two teams didn't allow what we allowed.  

 

In 2021, we allowed the same number of points that the Steelers and their 21st ranked D did to the Chiefs, the Bengals and their 17th ranked D held hem to 18 fewer points.  

 

This past season was a complete debacle and everyone knows it, we can make excuses, but vs. the Bengals in the regular season game, they were ripping off yards like it was an all-u-can-eat buffet before Hamlin went down.  

 

Everyone has different standards, I'll accept that you don't think that's problematic, I simply don't ever see us even sniffing a Championship like that tho, and getting back to contracts which this thread was about, few if any of the defensive players that some are defending in this thread, including Diggs for example who has the largest contract on the team otherwise, simply didn't show up generally speaking in the playoffs.  Since we're talking about contracts and how good players are, it's hardly an NFL secret that the better players step up in the playoffs.  Ours haven't.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Dopey said:

Understood, but I was replying to the following you wrote: "Our D has been AWOL in the playoffs."  This appears to be off of the original topic of contracts too. No?

 

Limeaid provided examples in his post. Read them. It's in English.

 

That's a coincidence, because what I wrote was in English too. 

 

Quote

Playing well and losing is entirely different than your best players not showing up and otherwise playing like crap.  You know that.  Our D has been AWOL in the playoffs.  

 

Let me know whether you need to have the concept of players/contracts corelated to their performance on the field when justifying whether or not those contracts were good ones or not.  

 

Regarding contracts ... 

 

That's the problem with the premise of this thread to begin with, contracts don't always translate to performance.  If you need some players as examples, let me know.  Happy to provide a few.  Lotulolei was one.  And oddly enough, Beane signed him.  Trent Murphy was another overpaid one.  John Brown was overpaid although not significantly.  Mario Addison grossly overpaid.  Vernon Butler a complete waste of money.  League wide, Russell Wilson's another current example, a really good one in fact.  You've heard of him, right?   

 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by PBF81

[DCofNC]

15 hours ago, Manther said:

OP, it’s another good way to slice and dice success.  Thanks for the read and insight.

 

2020 was the Covid draft and the worst success percentage.  Regardless Beane is 100% so far which is impressive.

The 5th year option is fools gold.  It should never be used other than extreme cases where you cannot work out an extension.  If the player is good enough to warrant that kind of money, you sign him immediately to a long term deal, if he’s not, he should be walking out the door.   Letting a player play out the 5th year has little to no advantage to the club.  
 

Either A) the play great and your long term deal price goes way higher.  

 

B) They play to the value of said contract, which means you would have had them under that cap hit on an extension anyway.

 

C) They suck/get injured and you paid for nothing. 

 

if ANYONE plays on a 5th year deal, it should be an exception, not the rule.  The fact the Bills have cornered themselves by using it so many times and lost on the deal in every one of them, should be more concerning.  Celebrate, what you want, but this is about as exciting as the franchise tag is to players. 

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

The 5th year option is fools gold.  It should never be used other than extreme cases where you cannot work out an extension.  If the player is good enough to warrant that kind of money, you sign him immediately to a long term deal, if he’s not, he should be walking out the door.   Letting a player play out the 5th year has little to no advantage to the club.  
 

Either A) the play great and your long term deal price goes way higher.  

 

B) They play to the value of said contract, which means you would have had them under that cap hit on an extension anyway.

 

C) They suck/get injured and you paid for nothing. 

 

if ANYONE plays on a 5th year deal, it should be an exception, not the rule.  The fact the Bills have cornered themselves by using it so many times and lost on the deal in every one of them, should be more concerning.  Celebrate, what you want, but this is about as exciting as the franchise tag is to players. 

 

It could also be if you don't think that the player's worth the money but you don't have an immediate replacement, hence as a temporary plug until you can draft a guy or get a free agent to replace him.  IOW, you're not going to sign him under any circumstances, but he's worth the 5th year option price but not worth the money he's seeking in a long-term contract.  Oliver's kind of in that boat.  He'll get more than he's worth, but for the $10M he's getting this year, Beane doesn't have much choice and he knows the system.  There would be a chemistry learning curve with a newbie, not to mention risk there too.  Oliver's not worth the money but it's also far from being a ripoff.   Beane will have to address that next offseason though.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

In particular the defense has bailed out offense several times in playoffs.

In Ravens game (January 16, 2021) the defense kept Jackson bottled up most of game, a defense plan copied by other teams, before interception in endzone (Bills 17, Ravens 3)

In P*tsie game (January 15, 2022) defense repeatedly made plays until defense teeth pulled and they still made plays (Bills 47, P*tsies 17(

Yes we lost 5 playoff games but that happens in single elimination tournaments.

Saying the defense bailed out the offense in a game where the offense scored every time they touched the ball is something

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

It could also be if you don't think that the player's worth the money but you don't have an immediate replacement, hence as a temporary plug until you can draft a guy or get a free agent to replace him.  IOW, you're not going to sign him under any circumstances, but he's worth the 5th year option price but not worth the money he's seeking in a long-term contract.  Oliver's kind of in that boat.  He'll get more than he's worth, but for the $10M he's getting this year, Beane doesn't have much choice and he knows the system.  There would be a chemistry learning curve with a newbie, not to mention risk there too.  Oliver's not worth the money but it's also far from being a ripoff.   Beane will have to address that next offseason though.  

 

 

He's the best answer for a year with limited draft capital and limited cap.  Just like Edmunds was.  Bust is gone after four, star extended after four, the guy in between is often worth it for a year.  

 

It wouldn't make sense to lose Edmunds and Oliver in the same year.  

[Einstein]

Beane's issues are not his ability to get "good" or "average" players.

 

His problem is his inability to get difference making players, and his record on Day 2.

 

1 Aaron Donald is worth 3 Ed Olivers.

1 Sauce Gardner is worth 3 Kaiir Elams.

1 Jeffrey Simmons is worth 3 Greg Rousseous.

 

Etc.

 

 

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

He's the best answer for a year with limited draft capital and limited cap.  Just like Edmunds was.  Bust is gone after four, star extended after four, the guy in between is often worth it for a year.  

 

It wouldn't make sense to lose Edmunds and Oliver in the same year.  

 

Agreed, although I think that I would have kept Edmunds.  Edmunds had more upside in being only 24, just in case, but also, the drop from Edmunds to ?? will be greater than the drop from Oliver to Poona Ford now or Jordan Phillips would have been.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, although I think that I would have kept Edmunds.  Edmunds had more upside in being only 24, just in case, but also, the drop from Edmunds to ?? will be greater than the drop from Oliver to Poona Ford now or Jordan Phillips would have been.  

 

 

I was an Edmunds supporter, even though he never was physical enough for my taste. If Williams gets the job, he will hit people.  Beane and McD know better than we do, and they concluded Edmunds isn't a White or Allen. Time will tell.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Einstein said:

Beane's issues are not his ability to get "good" or "average" players.

 

His problem is his inability to get difference making players, and his record on Day 2.

 

1 Aaron Donald is worth 3 Ed Olivers.

1 Sauce Gardner is worth 3 Kaiir Elams.

1 Jeffrey Simmons is worth 3 Greg Rousseous.

 

Etc.

 

 

 

 

I mean... Elam was picked at 23 not 4.  Either way, the book isn't even close to written on this guy for us to say that. 

 

Rousseau was picked at 30, and is 4th in his draft class in overall sacks behind parsons, phillips, and Ojulari - and generally would be probably a starter on an "all-2021" draft rookie team.  

 

I'd agree Oliver is a miss considering the 3 DTs drafted after him all outperformed him.  In the Group of 6 DTs in 2019 - Q. Williams, Oliver, Wilkins, Lawrence, Simmons, Tillery - he would probably have to be considered #5.  

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I was an Edmunds supporter, even though he never was physical enough for my taste. If Williams gets the job, he will hit people.  Beane and McD know better than we do, and they concluded Edmunds isn't a White or Allen. Time will tell.  

 

Edmunds was only 24 though.  Milano started when he was 23 and didn't really take that "leap" until last season when he was 27.  

 

My thing is that if you're going to draft players when they're 20, you owe it to both your team as well as to the player to work it out to keep them at least until the forefront of their prime, and they didn't do that.  IMO Edmunds improves significantly, I also think that he'll be better out of our system.  He's very well-rounded despite his tackling issues which IMO aren't monumental.  

 

Williams may hit, but is he big enough to stop larger RBs and WRs.  We shall see.  I'm far from convinced at the moment.  

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

16 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

The players that Beane drafted have gotten us 4 playoff wins so far after the Bills hadn't even been to the playoffs the prior 17 years.

Thank you. Beane built the 2nd most talented roster in the Bills existence  and people want him on the hot seat. People really want to start from scratch in Allen’s prime years. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on Dorian Williams. I know you gave him a low 3rd/high 4th grade but I have seen some compare the pick to Terrell Bernard. Since you scouted both, do you agree with that comparison? Or does Williams have more to work with?

 

I didn't scout Bernard I went back and watched what I could find post draft so not quite the same but I prefer Williams's upside. Definitely.