Josh Allen and the passing offense

[Hermes]

After the season ended it appears that Brandon Beane asked himself how can I make this team better; and decided that we're going to live and die by our offense. (You only need to stop them once if they can't stop you at all)

 

With 2 projected o-line upgrades, an upgrade to the 3rd receiving option, and more speed and size added to the wide receiver room. The Bills are looking in prime position to do improve what was last year a top 5 offense.

 

With that said, the aforementioned facts got me thinking about how the Bills offense projects out this year, statistically speaking.

Based on the past few season averages and some (probably incorrect) projections on my part, the floor for Josh Allen is set at 5,000 yards passing and ~50 tds. 

 

I'm not entirely sure what to think of the Bills ground game this year so I'm not going to touch on that.

 

 

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       60     1000     8

Kincaid    40     400      5

Shakir      40     500      3

Knox        50     500      8

Cook        25     200      5

Shorter    10      150      1

Harty        30     450     4

Sherfield  15      200     2

Hines        10      85       1

Morris       10      115      1

 

Allen

450 5000 48

 

 

 

 

 

(P.S. A huge thanks to the resident draft experts here on TSW. I love reading all of your insight and getting to know the prospects better through your work.)

Edited May 2, 2023 by Hermes

[ddaryl]

If the OL is truly improved 

If Kincaid fills the role that Beasley use to do for us before the injury 

and If Kincaid turns out to be what we are hoping then I forsee Kincaid being the 2nd best receiver on the team this year and Allen will pushing his own personal best 

But Have to see it hapening in action 



 

Edited May 2, 2023 by ddaryl

[StHustle]

I believe we actually start running the ball with decent consistency. I don't see Josh having his most prolific passing year but do expect higher efficiency.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think Allen will throw for a few less TDs in the red zone this year putting him in that 36-40 range. I see the Bills being able to run inside the 5 a bit more than in years past.

 

Yardage wise...went low again. The 4000-4500 range. We do traditionally play in some crud weather and that takes a toll on final passing numbers.

 

Of course Josh will break a passing record. A little loose with the specifics (Team record, NFL record) so he'll hit some kind of milestone.

[DieHardBillsFan]

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       55       700      7

Kincaid    60      650       7

Shakir      35      400       4

Knox        55      500       7

Cook        25      200       3

Shorter    20      250       2

Harty        30     400       4

Sherfield  25      300      3

Hines        20      200      2

Morris       10       100      1

 

Allen        450   5100   50

 

Fun exercise! Here is my take. 

My hope is that Allen will become more comfortable with checkdown passes which will have a larger result for TEs and RBs and more yards in the end with less QB runs.

[Nephilim17]

I'd be stunned if Shakir gets more yards than Kincaid.

[Mynamemike]

1 hour ago, Hermes said:

After the season ended it appears that Brandon Beane asked himself how can I make this team better; and decided that we're going to live and die by our offense. (You only need to stop them once if they can't stop you at all)

 

With 2 projected o-line upgrades, an upgrade to the 3rd receiving option, and more speed and size added to the wide receiver room. The Bills are looking in prime position to do improve what was last year a top 5 offense.

 

With that said, the aforementioned facts got me thinking about how the Bills offense projects out this year, statistically speaking.

Based on the past few season averages and some (probably incorrect) projections on my part, the floor for Josh Allen is set at 5,000 yards passing and ~50 tds. 

 

I'm not entirely sure what to think of the Bills ground game this year so I'm not going to touch on that.

 

 

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       60     1000     8

Kincaid    40     400      5

Shakir      40     500      3

Knox        50     500      8

Cook        25     200      5

Shorter    10      150      1

Harty        30     450     4

Sherfield  15      200     2

Hines        10      85       1

Morris       10      115      1

 

Allen

450 5000 48

 

 

 

 

 

(P.S. A huge thanks to the resident draft experts here on TSW. I love reading all of your insight and getting to know the prospects better through your work.)

Give me a similar stat line from Josh as last year with less turnovers and an improved running game and I feel confident going into the playoffs next year.  
 

if Josh has to go play hero ball again all year we’re out early in the playoffs again imo.  
 

it feels like it’s been a quiet offseason but I’m really excited to see how things shake out.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I’m taking all the low’s there.

 

I don’t think the offense is trending towards breaking pass records. 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

If the OL is truly improved 

If Kincaid fills the role that Beasley use to do for us before the injury 

and If Kincaid turns out to be what we are hoping then I forsee Kincaid being the 2nd best receiver on the team this year and Allen will pushing his own personal best 

But Have to see it hapening in action 
 

this is high expectations, and I like it! 

[John from Riverside]

I actually wonder if there’s going to be a little bit of a leveling out balance of Offats given what we have seen this off-season by that I mean running the ball
 

I know that everyone would like to see Josh Allen’s got a 400 yard games passing and him putting up three scores a game

 

I would like to see 100 yard rusher every game that’s not Josh Allen, even if it meant a dip in his passing yards in passing touchdowns if it was replaced with rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, I would be totally happy, and I wouldn’t fault Josh Allen for that at all because it will only lengthen his career

[PBF81]

So much depends upon Dorsey. 

[ddaryl]

13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I’m taking all the low’s there.

 

I don’t think the offense is trending towards breaking pass records. 

 

 

I did too ironically

 

the numbers in the poll are way to hopeful, anything above the low numbers is really impressive. Just hitting the low numbers is still a rock solid season and it also depends on what others bring up. Do we have a more consistent run game, does Allen feel more comfortable taking the underneath stuff to keep the chains moving 

[schoolhouserock]

Need an additional category for fewer than 35 TDs.

[papazoid]

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, Mynamemike said:

Give me a similar stat line from Josh as last year with less turnovers and an improved running game and I feel confident going into the playoffs next year.  
 

if Josh has to go play hero ball again all year we’re out early in the playoffs again imo.  
 

it feels like it’s been a quiet offseason but I’m really excited to see how things shake out.  

 

I wouldn't mind that one bit. I think the focus was to make Josh's life easier and take pressure off his legs.  Now comes the worst part of the off-season 

3 minutes ago, papazoid said:

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

I just added more options for all of the cowards out there 😉

[Virgil]

I hope he takes a step back in both passing yards and touchdowns. 
 

We have a tough schedule this year.  I want to see our defense step up and I want to see a better run game.  It can’t be the Allen show.  
 

If he does break those passing records, then we are playing keep up with the score and we are relying on him too much 

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, papazoid said:

you actually need a choice for: 

 

UNDER  4000 yards & UNDER 35 TD's

 

i think both are likely....expecting the bills to run more this season

Just being able to close out games by predominantly running the ball would be a huge plus for this team. 

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think Allen will throw for a few less TDs in the red zone this year putting him in that 36-40 range. I see the Bills being able to run inside the 5 a bit more than in years past.

 

Yardage wise...went low again. The 4000-4500 range. We do traditionally play in some crud weather and that takes a toll on final passing numbers.

 

Of course Josh will break a passing record. A little loose with the specifics (Team record, NFL record) so he'll hit some kind of milestone.

You think he will decrease his red zone touchdowns to stay within a range he has barely hit the last 3 years (and missed last year)?

 

Allen has 37, 36 and 35 passing TDs the last 3 years

[buffalo2218]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'd be stunned if Shakir gets more yards than Kincaid.

Shakir did pretty well last year as a rookie and that gives him leg up on Kincaid, it wouldn't be that surprising if he ups his game this year

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, DieHardBillsFan said:

Diggs       115    1400    10

Davis       55       700      7

Kincaid    60      650       7

Shakir      35      400       4

Knox        55      500       7

Cook        25      200       3

Shorter    20      250       2

Harty        30     400       4

Sherfield  25      300      3

Hines        20      200      2

Morris       10       100      1

 

Allen        450   5100   50

 

Fun exercise! Here is my take. 

My hope is that Allen will become more comfortable with checkdown passes which will have a larger result for TEs and RBs and more yards in the end with less QB runs.

I like this one, but I would adjust Knox to 600-650, and lower Shakir to 300.  Don’t forget Knox had to be a bit distracted for the first half of the year given the sudden death of his brother.  That would mess anyone up and happened right at the beginning of the year.  The prior year he had 9 passing TD’s.