Bills 2023-24 Schedule Preview & Prediction

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Lol zero idea who said that haha. I will say this last year everyone pegged KC to fall as the division looked improved and their schedule again was a buzz saw... and then it wasn't.

 

Realistically one of the Jets or Phins won't be as good and outside of PHI/KC/CIN there will be some teams who are not what they were. That said the last two years the Bills have had some weaker teams to go after and this year on paper there are maybe 2-3 games (DEN/TB/VEG) that should be expected wins.

You certainly never know from year to year. Just a year ago you’d have been facing Russel Wilson, Derek Carr and Tom Brady in games that on paper anyway would’ve looked pretty tough. Now….not so much. 

[Buffalo03]

3 hours ago, corta765 said:

We are finally getting the last major piece of table set before camp and preseason as the schedule drops next week. Every year I do this piece and recap what changes in the schedule exist and what I think the Bills schedule will be.

 

For the record last year I nailed two weeks, was off by a week on a bunch of games, and got four of the night games right. I might not be perfect to a T, but usually I am in a good ballpark of what is on the way. Let’s kick it off with schedule changes in terms of format by the NFL:

 

-The NFL allows for up to 6 primetime games (any night game is primetime) and one flex. It use to be 5 night games and a flex but they increased it.

-Thursday games can be played multiple times by teams now. It usually was capped at one per team, but the NFL altered that so a team can appear more then once.

-There will be a black friday game this year free to all to see. Per Peter King of SI in todays column the fav for that game is PHI/NYG

-There is no primetime minimum for teams, if you stink you may not get any primetime games. The NFL years ago dumped the rule that every team plays on Thursday so better matches can exist.

-Monday night football will have double headers the first three weeks of the season.

-Five European games with Bills, Jags, & Titans in London and Chiefs (probably playing the Bears Nov 5th or 12th) & Pats hosting games in Frankfurt.

-You do not have to take a bye the week after going to Europe.

-Christmas Day is on a Monday and again will have 3 games spread across the day.

 

As for the Bills the recent interview by Sal C at WGR with Mike North VP of operations hinted strongly that the Bills will have a heavy primetime schedule again. They are in the trinity of Bills/Chiefs/Bengals which all have stud QBs and good games to show. Teams/networks cannot hold specific dates or games but they can make requests. Every team would love to open at home, have a bye week mid year, and finish at home too. The schedule isn’t perfect it’s more trying to balance some requests with league needs.

 

After last years chaos across the season the message I have seen is regaining normalcy and continuity from the Bills front. My guess is while the Bills know they are going to be on primetime a lot  they probably don’t ask for opening night again nor Thanksgiving. Heading to London is a task in itself and the stadium the Bills play in only have open dates Sunday October 8th or 15th so take that as you will. 

 

The AFC East now has the Jets with Rodgers and the Phins with a playoff team that added Jalen Ramsey. I would expect a night game vs each of them at minimum. The Patriots are probably the odd man out as they really lack star power after Matthew Judon and look to be 4th in division at this time. After playing the Pats at night three straight years   (2020 MNF, 21 MNF, 22 TNF) I think you actually see both games at 1pm as NE finally falls down the totem pole. The Bills non division schedule is loaded with quality opponents and large markets as any of DAL/NYG/PHI/WSH/CIN/KC/LAC/JAX are games that could/will be put in a primetime window without questions or 4:35 primetime Sunday spot. Buffalo has been a favorite for the mid December Saturday games since 2019 and I won’t be surprised to see that again. Last year the Bills had just 9 games at Sunday 1pm and my guess is they have the same or possibly less with the change in scheduling.

 

With all of that said here is my prediction:

 

 

It took me a bit to see what VEG was. I was like "we're playing vegetables week 1. I don't like that match up"

[sonyab1974]

The schedule drops next week?! GREAT! 🥳Thank you!

Edited May 2, 2023 by sonyab1974

[Taro Nimbus]

I dont know who needs to hear this, but the Bills are not playing Jax in London.  For starters, it will be a Jax home game, not a Bills home game.  And two, Jax is playing at Wembly, Buffalo at Tottenham

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BritBill said:

 

@GunnerBill will love that. 

 

A big deal? Lol. 1961. That's how big of a deal. The Bills have won a championship more recently.

[corta765]

18 minutes ago, Taro Nimbus said:

I dont know who needs to hear this, but the Bills are not playing Jax in London.  For starters, it will be a Jax home game, not a Bills home game.  And two, Jax is playing at Wembly, Buffalo at Tottenham

For the 1000th time the NFL approved the Jags playing as the away team this year as both the Bills and Titans would host them. Also the vast majority of American fans no nothing about London stadiums, its just London to most of us. As I expressed on a prior page I understand there is quite big difference in those stadiums for euro soccer folks which is cool.

 

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/nfl/2023/04/28/jaguars-confirm-possibility-of-playing-back-to-back-london-games-in-2023/70164128007/

Edited May 2, 2023 by corta765

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

They won’t be scheduled for 3 games on MNF.

[BritBill]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

For the 1000th time the NFL approved the Jags playing as the away team this year as both the Bills and Titans would host them. Also the vast majority of American fans no nothing about London stadiums, its just London to most of us. As I expressed on a prior page I understand there is quite big difference in those stadiums for euro soccer folks which is cool.

 

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/sports/nfl/2023/04/28/jaguars-confirm-possibility-of-playing-back-to-back-london-games-in-2023/70164128007/

 

The Jags are playing in London (Wembley) as a home team this year. However, it's possible they can also be the away team in London (Tottenham) as well versus the Bills or Titans. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by BritBill

[SoCal Deek]

32 minutes ago, BritBill said:

 

The Jags are playing in London (Wembley) as a home team this year. However, it's possible they can also be the away team in London (Tottenham) as well versus the Bills or Titans. 

Hey Brit….is there a reason why the NFL doesn’t play at Twickenham Stadium? I’ve never been there and quite frankly didn’t know it was as large as it is until we were in London the last time the Bills were at Wembley. Is it nice? 

[bigK14094]

Last trip to London was the EJ Manual fiasco.  I recall it well.  With the situation at home, I doubt the Pegs will have the hospitality plane they had before as I am doubting Kim is traveling that far these days.  A london game should be good duty, but ,it a tough fly w a 5 hour time difference.  Like playing in the early morning, a nasty twist on the human body.

[purple haze]

10 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

The best analogy I can come up with is Wembley is the national stadium, sort of like the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Neither is a home stadium for a specific team. Tottenham is the actual home stadium to for the Hotspurs, sort of like SoFi stadium would be for the Rams/Chargers. Just like in Los Angeles the two stadiums are only a few miles apart from each other. Hope that helps. 

Rose Bowl is home for UCLA.

[Airseven]

Bills are not getting that many primetime games this year. 

[Franco_92]

3 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Bills are not getting that many primetime games this year. 

The guy who literally makes the schedule said they will max out or come close to maxing out their allowed prime time games lol

Why even pull something like this out of your ass, what's the point

[pennstate10]

Third year in a row we play KC at KC. What’s up with that?

 

[Franco_92]

8 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Third year in a row we play KC at KC. What’s up with that?

 

We should really just sticky the explanation for this, because it gets asked on this forum every single day

 

It is a necessary manifestation of a rotating schedule that cycles through the AFC divisions and matches seeds of the remaining teams for the extra games. If you want to do a schedule this way, you necessarily have to have the possibility of games between opponents rotating like this (we will play KC in Buffalo in 2024, 2025, and 2026 if we continue to finish in the same position in our division)

If you tried to switch this, suddenly it would not be possible to play 8 home games and 8 road games (plus the 17th game rotating in venue), some teams would get more home games than others within conference

 

We played Pittsburgh at home 3 years in a row too but nobody cared because we benefited from it 

[pennstate10]

I sorta doubt that there is only one mathematical solution to the NFL scheduling algorithm. 
 

So here’s a novel idea. If your algorithm leads to one team playing another on the road 3 out of 3 years, maybe you ought to think about modifying your algorithm. 

[BritBill]

9 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Hey Brit….is there a reason why the NFL doesn’t play at Twickenham Stadium? I’ve never been there and quite frankly didn’t know it was as large as it is until we were in London the last time the Bills were at Wembley. Is it nice? 

 

They played one game there a few years back but non since. I've never been (not a rugby fan) but the feedback seemed to be the seating was a bit cramped for space and the transport might not be as good to and from (though I may be wrong on that). It's an older stadium. Especially compared to Wembley and Tottenham. 

 

One of the other Brit guys on here who live further south than I might be able to give you more information on it. 

[ALF]

Playing at Miami week 18 would be perfect to avoid extreme heat.

[Xwnyer]

20 hours ago, corta765 said:

We are finally getting the last major piece of table set before camp and preseason as the schedule drops next week. Every year I do this piece and recap what changes in the schedule exist and what I think the Bills schedule will be.

 

For the record last year I nailed two weeks, was off by a week on a bunch of games, and got four of the night games right. I might not be perfect to a T, but usually I am in a good ballpark of what is on the way. Let’s kick it off with schedule changes in terms of format by the NFL:

 

-The NFL allows for up to 6 primetime games (any night game is primetime) and one flex. It use to be 5 night games and a flex but they increased it.

-Thursday games can be played multiple times by teams now. It usually was capped at one per team, but the NFL altered that so a team can appear more then once.

-There will be a black friday game this year free to all to see. Per Peter King of SI in todays column the fav for that game is PHI/NYG

-There is no primetime minimum for teams, if you stink you may not get any primetime games. The NFL years ago dumped the rule that every team plays on Thursday so better matches can exist.

-Monday night football will have double headers the first three weeks of the season.

-Five European games with Bills, Jags, & Titans in London and Chiefs (probably playing the Bears Nov 5th or 12th) & Pats hosting games in Frankfurt.

-You do not have to take a bye the week after going to Europe.

-Christmas Day is on a Monday and again will have 3 games spread across the day.

 

As for the Bills the recent interview by Sal C at WGR with Mike North VP of operations hinted strongly that the Bills will have a heavy primetime schedule again. They are in the trinity of Bills/Chiefs/Bengals which all have stud QBs and good games to show. Teams/networks cannot hold specific dates or games but they can make requests. Every team would love to open at home, have a bye week mid year, and finish at home too. The schedule isn’t perfect it’s more trying to balance some requests with league needs.

 

After last years chaos across the season the message I have seen is regaining normalcy and continuity from the Bills front. My guess is while the Bills know they are going to be on primetime a lot  they probably don’t ask for opening night again nor Thanksgiving. Heading to London is a task in itself and the stadium the Bills play in only have open dates Sunday October 8th or 15th so take that as you will. 

 

The AFC East now has the Jets with Rodgers and the Phins with a playoff team that added Jalen Ramsey. I would expect a night game vs each of them at minimum. The Patriots are probably the odd man out as they really lack star power after Matthew Judon and look to be 4th in division at this time. After playing the Pats at night three straight years   (2020 MNF, 21 MNF, 22 TNF) I think you actually see both games at 1pm as NE finally falls down the totem pole. The Bills non division schedule is loaded with quality opponents and large markets as any of DAL/NYG/PHI/WSH/CIN/KC/LAC/JAX are games that could/will be put in a primetime window without questions or 4:35 primetime Sunday spot. Buffalo has been a favorite for the mid December Saturday games since 2019 and I won’t be surprised to see that again. Last year the Bills had just 9 games at Sunday 1pm and my guess is they have the same or possibly less with the change in scheduling.

 

With all of that said here is my prediction:

 

 

I hate this schedule 5 night games NO thank you!

[Metal Man]

5 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

I sorta doubt that there is only one mathematical solution to the NFL scheduling algorithm. 
 

So here’s a novel idea. If your algorithm leads to one team playing another on the road 3 out of 3 years, maybe you ought to think about modifying your algorithm. 

 

The opponents have been part of a predetermined formula for a long time now.

Bills had KC at home in 2020 as part of the normal division rotation, 2 AFCW away and other 2 AFCW at home.

2021 and 2022 Buffalo played at whoever finished in the same position as them from the AFCW the year before which seeing both teams won their division in 2020 and 2021 ended up being at KC. That easily could have been one of the other AFCW teams if the Bills or KC finished in 2nd or worse.

 

Bills were at Cincy last year as part of the divisional rotation and at Cincy again this year as part of playing at their counterpart of the AFCN. For 2024 the Bills are at the AFCN counterpart again so if both them and Cincy finish the same place in their divisions it will be at Cincy in 2024 and that can be the new one people complain about.

 

Any opponent formula you come up with will always have the potential for these kinds of things.