Do you guys feel right about FA/Draft and the "Process" ?

[PBF81]

22 minutes ago, Chaos said:

-ev = Minus Expected Value

 

Ahh, so he's saying that running the ball is less ev than passing, right?  

 

Got it.  Yeah, agreed, generally speaking, but he and I were on slightly different wavelengths, as you can see.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Im stunned...seriously stunned...that @Airsevenvoted for the most negative poll answer.  Never saw that coming, so unlike him.   

[Dr. Who]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Boy, you said a mouthful there.  Agree with you fwiw.  

 

Allow me to elaborate a little bit.  It's easy this time of year to think that your draft just provided the "missing pieces" and automatically assume improvement.  I think we have a little of both, and JfR in another thread opined that it appears that McD's been told to work with what he has (given the resources pumped into D to date) while they revamp the Offense.  Sounds right.  

 

As you implied or outright stated, there are a lot of variables above.  

 

Offensively, on paper there's absolutely no reason why it shouldn't make leaps and bounds.  I can visualize Allen surpassing Manning's 2013 season in Denver of 55 TDs on 5,477 Yards.  Would I put money on it happening?  No, but Manning did it with Demaryius Thomas, Decker, Julius Thomas (TE), and Welker, with Moreno and nothing Monte Ball as the RBs.  Contrast that with Diggs, Davis, Knox, Kincaid as WRs/TEs and Harris and Cook as the RBs.  

 

Having said that, Dorsey can't seem to figure out what's best.  There were times last season that we all saw, where our RBs, even if typically against crappy rushing Ds, were carving out HUGE yards-per-carry, 7, 8, or even more, and Dorsey stopped running them despite us being up, thereby shortening or even ending drives.  It was mindboggling.  

 

To your points, the variables ... 

 

-  The interior OL improvement should help the OTs.  Dawkins is fine, hopefully it takes some stress off of Brown.  

 

-  Per above, the running game is entirely dependent upon Dorsey.  He could snuff it, or he could have it be league leading given the heat that our passing game will provide.  Which way will the cards fall.  

 

-  Allen's elbow, is it better?  The short answer is that we don't know.  He and the team are going to say that it's fine and 100% even if it isn't.  He didn't have surgery which is bothersome.  As we all know, some doctor explained that his injury limits his ability to throw short and throw short accurately.  Which way will the cards on that fall.  

 

-  Hyde and Poyer are back, but Poyer, unless I missed it, did not have surgery, and has Hyde's back issue gone away entirely?  He's already told us that it's been a chronic issue.  Will the knee bother Poyer as the season wears on?  The short answer is that we don't know.  Both are 32 and out of their primes which doesn't help and which typically sees players start to decline.  Which way will the cards fall.  

 

-  What about White?  He wasn't good last season, below average.  It stands to reason that he'll be better this season, but will he get back to his dominant impact self?  Which way will the cards fall.  

 

-  As to Miller, he suffered a similar injury to what White had, and it's common knowledge that players are not themselves the season following and often never fully recover.  He's also 34 and out of his prime whereas White's at the beginning of his.  If that's a harbinger it's not good for Miller.  It's a safe bet that he's finished as an impact player.  We'll see.  

 

-  While McD is now coaching the D, how will that impact his overall coaching of the team, which has been highly questionable at times, often key times w/o regurgitating them.  Can he do both?  Will the offense be better or worse w/ less of his input as I suspect he'll be more preoccupied with the D now.  Which way will the cards fall there?  

 

I'll add the defense in general.  They play of the D before and after Miller went out was pronounced.  Our pass D played to a well below average after that, even if the Pats game (post-Hamlin) is not considered, and our metrics dropped significantly.  Our defensive rankings extrapolated out for an entire season in those last five games were 18th in passing TDs allowed, 12th in INT generation, 23rd in Sack generation, 24th in Sack %, and 26th in QB Hits.  

 

Here's the thing, last season we played the following QBs: 

 

Before Von's injury:  Stafford, Tannehill, Tagovailoa, Jackson, Pickett, Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson, Cousins, and Brissett.  

After Von's injury:  Mac Jones (twice), Mike White, Tagovailoa, and Zach Wilson.  

 

That doesn't bode well.  Adding additional question marks to this season, here are the QBs that we face this season:  

 

Mahomes, Herbert, Hurts, Burrow, Rodgers (twice), Tagovailoa (twice), Lawrence, Prescott, Daniel Jones, Garoppolo, with the weaker ones being Mac Jones (or Zappe), Wilson, Mayfield, and whomever is starting for the Skins.  

 

That's a much rougher slate of QBs and offenses that we face than last season.  If our defense plays more to the post-Miller-injury standard than to the pre, we could see a significant regression in the play of the D, which would put more pressure on the O, which in turn will probably boost the offensive stats.  

 

We'll see what happens.  There's reason for optimism but also some more minor cause for concerns.  My position hinges on whether or not Dorsey can piece things together this season to get the most out of what is arguably the most talented set of receiving options we've ever had, while utilizing the running game to capitalize off of that.  There's no reason why we cannot lead the league in ToP and drive stats.  But will Dorsey do the things that are required to achieve that.  He's the biggest wild-card in the batch.  

 

 

 

 

I agree with a fair amount of your analysis, though I believe there are a few cases where the which way will it go scenarios are tilted along different odds than you suggest. I don't think it's very plausible that the Bills would take a risk that Allen might not be recovered from the elbow injury for the upcoming season. Why would you not get the surgery if it was needed to be certain? Maybe there's a rationale for it, but I'm not willing to treat that as a 50/50 gamble. I expect White will be better. I hope he returns to pre-injury form. I don't think you can count on that, though it seemed to me as the season progressed his play did improve and he was never someone who relied on blazing speed, so at minimum I surmise late season White is a probable floor. I don't agree, however, that Miller's injury is the same. From what I have read, it was not nearly as severe as what White suffered. Maybe there is propaganda involved, but I don't really see how it benefits Von or the team to sound optimistic if they do not believe there are sound reasons for thinking he can return to form. You say it's a safe bet he is finished as an impact player. I don't see a basis for that kind of pessimistic certitude. Not all 34 year olds are alike. All the same, there are some veteran FA Edge players and I wouldn't mind bringing one in as insurance.

 

This is certainly a prove it year for Dorsey. He's been given sufficient resources to build a dangerous and unpredictable offense. Supposedly it is difficult to integrate a pass catching rb into the offense midseason because it calls for more difficult pass protection schemes. They drafted Cook whose skill set included catching passes out of the backfield, so I don't know why that wasn't part of the original install. I suppose they were bringing Cook along slowly and the oline was subpar, so that may have contributed to the total inability to use Hines effectively or to take advantage of all that Cook brings to the table. Regardless, Dorsey now has sufficient time to figure out how to use all the weapons provided. One way or another slot should be a much more reliable weapon. IOL is deeper with more aggressive tendencies. Dorsey can presumably employ some elements of both a finesse and power running game given the diverse rbs in the room. Another complaint about his game planning, however, is that Dorsey never synthesized the running game and pass plays into a coherent strategy. They would often seemingly be called randomly without building upon one another and setting the defense up for maximum impact. Particularly in the RZ we became predictable which is in part responsible for the disturbing increase in turnovers. Josh used to be excellent at avoiding RZ giveaways. Those are just soul crushing and we had way too many. So, I concur that Dorsey is the most significant unknown. He should make some leap from year one. If it's substantial and we avoid bad injuries to key players, it could be a magical year. I don't think you can worry about how many good qbs you face. It's an advantage regular season to not see too many. Maybe it helps you in the playoffs if you have. If we put our best team forward, we're going to win a lot of games.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In terms of EPA I mean

 

https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2019/10/20/passing-and-rushing-plays-in-the-nfl/

 

Yeah, it's a good basic article, nothing to disagree with there.  But you understand my point, right?  

 

I'll provide an example from last season.  

 

The Chicago game is low-hanging fruit here.  They were ranked DFL in rushing D TDs allowed, 31st in rushing yardage allowed.  In that game Singletary and Cook both averaged 9 yards-per-carry.  

 

Allen meanwhile was struggling against their 18th ranked passing yardage D, and 11th pass TD D.  It was one of his worst couple of games all season.  

 

Our second drive in that game, tied 7-7, Singletary had run for 2, 15, and 3 yards on 1st, 2nd, and 1st downs consecutively, and on our opening drive Cook had 2 carries for 24 yards.  The next three plays after Singletary's three runs were a 15-yard pass to Davis for a 1st, a penalty on the next play, then Allen throwing for 1 yard setting up a 2nd-and-19.  On the next play Allen threw a pick. 

 

Up until that point Cook and Singletary had averaged 9 ypc, so why not give them the ball at least a few of those times until the Bears stopped them. 

 

There was nothing to indicate that we couldn't have run the ball 75% of the time, kept their D on the field, not thrown 2 INTs in that game.  In another game it may have cost us a win. 

 

But I'm guessing that had we run some more, that Allen's passing may have yielded more than 172 yards. 

 

The bottom line is that both Singletary and Cook were ripping it up, neither got more than a dozen carries, and Chicago's rushing defense sucked.  I don't understand why we wouldn't have run more, in that particular game, not necessarily as a philosophy on the season.  It's not as if Justin Fields was going to shred our D or anything. 

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, it's a good basic article, nothing to disagree with there.  But you understand my point, right?  

 

I'll provide an example from last season.  

 

The Chicago game is low-hanging fruit here.  They were ranked DFL in rushing D TDs allowed, 31st in rushing yardage allowed.  In that game Singletary and Cook both averaged 9 yards-per-carry.  

 

Allen meanwhile was struggling against their 18th ranked passing yardage D, and 11th pass TD D.  It was one of his worst couple of games all season.  

 

Our second drive in that game, tied 7-7, Singletary had run for 2, 15, and 3 yards on 1st, 2nd, and 1st downs consecutively, and on our opening drive Cook had 2 carries for 24 yards.  The next three plays after Singletary's three runs were a 15-yard pass to Davis for a 1st, a penalty on the next play, then Allen throwing for 1 yard setting up a 2nd-and-19.  On the next play Allen threw a pick. 

 

Up until that point Cook and Singletary had averaged 9 ypc, so why not give them the ball at least a few of those times until the Bears stopped them. 

 

There was nothing to indicate that we couldn't have run the ball 75% of the time, kept their D on the field, not thrown 2 INTs in that game.  In another game it may have cost us a win. 

 

But I'm guessing that had we run some more, that Allen's passing may have yielded more than 172 yards. 

 

The bottom line is that both Singletary and Cook were ripping it up, neither got more than a dozen carries, and Chicago's rushing defense sucked.  I don't understand why we wouldn't have run more, in that particular game, not necessarily as a philosophy on the season.  It's not as if Justin Fields was going to shred our D or anything. 

 

 

 

 

I understand your point, I just don't agree w it completely 

 

You can obviously tailor drives or play calls or even whole game plans to specific opponents, but deviating from what all good analysis points to as the +ev strategy is going to introduce variance and make your offense less efficient

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I agree with a fair amount of your analysis, though I believe there are a few cases where the which way will it go scenarios are tilted along different odds than you suggest. I don't think it's very plausible that the Bills would take a risk that Allen might not be recovered from the elbow injury for the upcoming season. Why would you not get the surgery if it was needed to be certain? Maybe there's a rationale for it, but I'm not willing to treat that as a 50/50 gamble. I expect White will be better. I hope he returns to pre-injury form. I don't think you can count on that, though it seemed to me as the season progressed his play did improve and he was never someone who relied on blazing speed, so at minimum I surmise late season White is a probable floor. I don't agree, however, that Miller's injury is the same. From what I have read, it was not nearly as severe as what White suffered. Maybe there is propaganda involved, but I don't really see how it benefits Von or the team to sound optimistic if they do not believe there are sound reasons for thinking he can return to form. You say it's a safe bet he is finished as an impact player. I don't see a basis for that kind of pessimistic certitude. Not all 34 year olds are alike. All the same, there are some veteran FA Edge players and I wouldn't mind bringing one in as insurance.

 

This is certainly a prove it year for Dorsey. He's been given sufficient resources to build a dangerous and unpredictable offense. Supposedly it is difficult to integrate a pass catching rb into the offense midseason because it calls for more difficult pass protection schemes. They drafted Cook whose skill set included catching passes out of the backfield, so I don't know why that wasn't part of the original install. I suppose they were bringing Cook along slowly and the oline was subpar, so that may have contributed to the total inability to use Hines effectively or to take advantage of all that Cook brings to the table. Regardless, Dorsey now has sufficient time to figure out how to use all the weapons provided. One way or another slot should be a much more reliable weapon. IOL is deeper with more aggressive tendencies. Dorsey can presumably employ some elements of both a finesse and power running game given the diverse rbs in the room. Another complaint about his game planning, however, is that Dorsey never synthesized the running game and pass plays into a coherent strategy. They would often seemingly be called randomly without building upon one another and setting the defense up for maximum impact. Particularly in the RZ we became predictable which is in part responsible for the disturbing increase in turnovers. Josh used to be excellent at avoiding RZ giveaways. Those are just soul crushing and we had way too many. So, I concur that Dorsey is the most significant unknown. He should make some leap from year one. If it's substantial and we avoid bad injuries to key players, it could be a magical year. I don't think you can worry about how many good qbs you face. It's an advantage regular season to not see too many. Maybe it helps you in the playoffs if you have. If we put our best team forward, we're going to win a lot of games.

 

Valid points!  

 

As to the bolded, great point there as well.  Nicely stated.  

 

My points about Allen's elbow and the injury statuses on the D were really pointing out that if all went perfectly we'd merely get back to where we were minus an extra year for everyone.  It'll likely be somewhere in between, hence the way I phrased it.  

 

My concern for Allen's elbow is greater than yours for it is.  Apparently, as we were told, it was a problem through the last game we played, namely the Bengals playoff game.  We were told that he couldn't throw short well or accurately.  

 

He decided shortly after that game to not have surgery, or at least that's when he made the announcement, but obviously it had bothered him, and affected his play as such, up until that time.  So I'd question why he decided not to have surgery, on what basis.  Make sense?  

 

IOW, what indication did he have to believe that it would heal back to 100% without the surgery.  Who knows, we're obviously not privy, and it would hardly be the first time that a player refused surgery when he should have gotten it, but I do question it as such.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

10 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Valid points!  

 

As to the bolded, great point there as well.  Nicely stated.  

 

My points about Allen's elbow and the injury statuses on the D were really pointing out that if all went perfectly we'd merely get back to where we were minus an extra year for everyone.  It'll likely be somewhere in between, hence the way I phrased it.  

 

My concern for Allen's elbow is greater than yours for it is.  Apparently, as we were told, it was a problem through the last game we played, namely the Bengals playoff game.  We were told that he couldn't throw short well or accurately.  

 

He decided shortly after that game to not have surgery, or at least that's when he made the announcement, but obviously it had bothered him, and affected his play as such, up until that time.  So I'd question why he decided not to have surgery, on what basis.  Make sense?  

 

IOW, what indication did he have to believe that it would heal back to 100% without the surgery.  Who knows, we're obviously not privy, and it would hardly be the first time that a player refused surgery when he should have gotten it, but I do question it as such.  

 

 

Obviously there is a lot of supposition regarding Allen. If I were the Bills, I'd want to be damn certain. And given how competitive Allen is, I would be surprised if he were willing to risk not being 100% for the upcoming year. The entire plausibility of a SB run literally depends on Allen being able to play as his best self.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Dr. Who

[boater]

A well designed survey is a work of art. Your first four questions would pass the test. In this case your #5 and #6  choices:

Quote

We will struggle just like last year making it to AFC Champ game

 

This team still needs way to much help for me to be confident

...poison the well. Because a respondent could easily reply to one of your choices #1 through #4 but also have feelings about #5 and #6.

 

Sorry. I'm being a pedantic prick for a fan board. I used to work surveys for a living, so I was triggered.

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I understand your point, I just don't agree w it completely 

 

You can obviously tailor drives or play calls or even whole game plans to specific opponents, but deviating from what all good analysis points to as the +ev strategy is going to introduce variance and make your offense less efficient

 

Well, here's the thing, that's assuming that every game plays out to ev strategy.  Obviously that's not the case and that's a huge part of my position on this.  Clearly that was one really good example where it did not.  

 

EV in that game clearly favored the run, and in no small way.  

 

Allen had 2 passing TDs. 

Singletary and Cook also had 2 rushing TDs.   

 

All three TOs were attributable to the passing game.  None for the running game.  

 

Singletary and Cook averaged 8.9 yards-per-carry.  Allen's passing averaged 6.4 yards-per-pass-play.  2.5 ypp less.  

 

In that particular game the EV was with the run.  

 

Again, agreed that it shouldn't be the philosophy of the team in general, but there are times and one can't say that it should never be the case or plan.  That's what game-planning around an opponents strengths and to its defenses is all about, as you know.  

 

 

13 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Obviously there is a lot of supposition regarding Allen. If I were the Bills, I'd want to be damn certain. And given how competitive Allen is, I would be surprised if he were willing to risk not being 100% for the upcoming year. The entire plausibility of a SB run literally depends on Allen being able to play as his best self.

 

But having said that, it could also be that he thinks he's OK w/o the surgery and will be fine.  Or perhaps he's not convinced that the surgery will actually help, or who knows, perhaps the doc told him that if you have this surgery that you'll have months of rehab and it may not be 100% going into the season, trauma and all.  

 

IDK, just playing devil's advocate here.  

 

I'm sure he talked it over and made his best decision.  

 

Agree with your points however.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

21 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Let's just skip the specifics and look at the picture as a whole. Ignore the names and stats but instead lets clue on what we did this offseason and draft.

 

The offensive line and WR team was a huge weakness this offseason. So we signed some FA's at the guard position and at the very least created a ton of competition at both guard positions. We added a TE that can play slot as well and gave Josh Allen a target.

 

At the HB position we lost our starter, but we have a rookie from last year with a bright future, likely a starter and created a ton of backup competition.

 

The Defensive Line, many thought we would pick up a big DI or any DI that had some talent.

 

Our Biggest Loss was ILB. Many of us wish we had that good ILB.. But what we have is a name coming back and more competition at the position.

 

For me we still have a hole at ILB, but are we not a much better team post FA/Draft?

I see a ton of negativity on these boards and I will not even call them haters. we all have the right to opinions and sometimes we get frustrated but I still ask.. Did we not get way better?

 

Thus the pole.

 

I am trying to keep this topic general non specific and look at the big picture.. so.. what say you?

 

I will be interested in Poll results, and TY for the read.

 

I voted for a top 3 team still...here is why:

1. We were already a top tier team before the offseason began.  
2. We gained a lot more than we lost.  
   1. Defense - Our biggest loss is Edmunds, but we managed to keep Poyer and now get Hyde back as well.  Plus Tre should be better going into this year as it often takes until the next season to get all the way back from a torn ACL.  Von Miller will be back too.  So looking at the Bengals game last year, we lose Edmunds but gain Hyde, Von, and a better Tre...that is a net positive by all measures.  And we have brought other guys back and some new ones like Rapp and Poona.  
      1. Bonus - We will have new life from the DC position too with McD calling plays rather than the serial playoff folder Frazier.  This is a "change is good" situation in my book, at least on paper.  
   2. Offense - We got rid of guys at or near the end of their career and made upgrades else where as well.  We did not downgrade at any of the 11 spots on offense, and we have actually upgraded many.  Out are the end of career guys or guys who really just shouldn't have been starting (Brown, Cole, McKenzie, Saffold, etc).  Sherfield is better than people realize and Harty gives us that gadget like player who can also take the top off the D when needed.  Kincaid is a potential stud, and Harris/Murray combo is better than the Devin/Moss combo we started last year with.  OL is in much better shape (on paper at least) than last year too.  
3. Josh Allen - The guy is just special, anytime you have him you are automatically going to be a very tough team to beat.  But more importantly, he is back to 100% and also the mental toll that was last year is gone off him.  Yes, the whole team went through the same emotionally draining events, but it weighs even heavier on Josh given the kind of person he is, the pressure he has to lead this team, and all this team has had to ask of him to win games.  
4. Health more than ever could be a major factor on separating teams at the top this year.  The teams are so clumped at the top now, especially in the AFC, that even a small injury can shift hierarchy.  

 

Now...all that being said does NOT mean we will still win 13 games again or have a top 3 record.  AFC is nuts, our division is tough, and we play AFC West, NFC East, plus Cincy this year.  As with any season, there could be some bumps/hiccups at times, injuries, etc that influence some of those games.  But I do think we will make the AFCCG and be one of the final 4 teams with a good shot at the SB.  

 

Top 5 overall teams IMHO and in NO particular order:  Buffalo, 49ers, Eagles, KC, and Cincy.  An argument can be made for any one of those teams to be a "top 3" team IMHO, and so I am sticking with Buffalo doing enough to remain up here and be a strong contender for the Super Bowl.  

Edited May 3, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Chaos]

31 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Top 5 overall teams IMHO and in NO particular order:  Buffalo, 49ers, Eagles, KC, and Cincy.  An argument can be made for any one of those teams to be a "top 3" team IMHO, and so I am sticking with Buffalo doing enough to remain up here and be a strong contender for the Super Bowl.  

Four of those teams made conference championship games last year. None of the had head coaching changes or substantial downgrades on their roster. (small downgrade for chiefs).

"To be the man, you have to beat the man."

 

Is in play here. Bills are one about 10 teams with a meaningful chance to hoist the Lombardi.  We really haven't shown we can beat the man in the playoffs though. So hard to place top 3. 

[Shaw66]

I'm not sure top 3, but it's close enough. 

 

It's hard to believe, but the Bills' roster seems to get better every season.  I like the receiving corps, I like the running back room, both probably better than ever.  I like the oline, even though there may be more work to be done.  I like the Dline.  The defensive backfield has the big three back, plus Taron Johnson, and they have two second-year corners who are seriously good.  And I think even linebacker may be better overall, because they may play with a bit more of a platoon approach.  

 

I love it.   It's up to McDermott and Dorsey. 

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not sure top 3, but it's close enough. 

 

It's hard to believe, but the Bills' roster seems to get better every season.  I like the receiving corps, I like the running back room, both probably better than ever.  I like the oline, even though there may be more work to be done.  I like the Dline.  The defensive backfield has the big three back, plus Taron Johnson, and they have two second-year corners who are seriously good.  And I think even linebacker may be better overall, because they may play with a bit more of a platoon approach.  

 

I love it.   It's up to McDermott and Dorsey. 

The hard part is that nothing the Bills do during the regular season will demonstrate whether any of the teams shortcomings have been addressed.  We really won't know until 2024. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Four of those teams made conference championship games last year. None of the had head coaching changes or substantial downgrades on their roster. (small downgrade for chiefs).

"To be the man, you have to beat the man."

 

Is in play here. Bills are one about 10 teams with a meaningful chance to hoist the Lombardi.  We really haven't shown we can beat the man in the playoffs though. So hard to place top 3. 

 

Chiefs, KC, and Eagles all lost more than they gained.  Niners lost players and gained players is pretty even, but they still have a major question at QB.

 

Bills are the only team of the top 5 I can definitively say that we for sure gained more than we lost.  We will see if it was "enough" or not, but we definitely improved this roster heading into the season.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Chaos]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Chiefs, KC, and Eagles all lost more than they gained.  Niners got gained more than they lost, but still have a major question mark at QB.  

 

Bills are the only team of the top 5 I can definitively say that we for sure gained more than we lost.  We will see if it was "enough" or not, but we definitely improved this roster heading into the season.

I don't agree with your roster assessments, particularly regarding the Eagles.  I also don't think the reason the Bills did not make the championship game the last two seasons is because our roster was deficient.  So its a prove it thing to me. 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Chaos said:

I don't agree with your roster assessments, particularly regarding the Eagles.  I also don't think the reason the Bills did not make the championship game the last two seasons is because our roster was deficient.  So its a prove it thing to me. 

 

Eagles lost several key players on Defense, and while they added some rookies to the D, they are just unproven rookies at this stage and it wasn't enough to for sure offset all the players they lost.  

 

I get the whole prove it thing with the Bills, nothing wrong with that.  There are several teams that have a case to be top 3 or 4 teams today...Bills have a valid argument to be among them.  No one can truly say who is or isn't, and nothing wrong thinking one way or the other.  

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I voted for a top 3 team still...here is why:

1. We were already a top tier team before the offseason began.  
2. We gained a lot more than we lost.  
   1. Defense - Our biggest loss is Edmunds, but we managed to keep Poyer and now get Hyde back as well.  Plus Tre should be better going into this year as it often takes until the next season to get all the way back from a torn ACL.  Von Miller will be back too.  So looking at the Bengals game last year, we lose Edmunds but gain Hyde, Von, and a better Tre...that is a net positive by all measures.  
      1. Bonus - We will have new life from the DC position too with McD calling plays rather than the serial playoff folder Frazier.  This is a "change is good" situation in my book, at least on paper.  
   2. Offense - We got rid of guys at or near the end of their career and made upgrades else where as well.  We did not downgrade at any of the 11 spots on offense, and we have actually upgraded many.  Out are the end of career guys or guys who really just shouldn't have been starting (Brown, Cole, McKenzie, Saffold, etc).  Sherfield is better than people realize and Harty gives us that gadget like player who can also take the top off the D when needed.  Kincaid is a potential stud, and Harris/Murray combo is better than the Devin/Moss combo we started last year with.  OL is in much better shape (on paper at least) than last year too.  
3. Josh Allen - The guy is just special, anytime you have him you are automatically going to be a very tough team to beat.  But more importantly, he is back to 100% and also the mental toll that was last year is gone off him.  Yes, the whole team went through the same emotionally draining events, but it weighs even heavier on Josh given the kind of person he is, the pressure he has to lead this team, and all this team has had to ask of him to win games.  
4. Health more than ever could be a major factor on separating teams at the top this year.  The teams are so clumped at the top now, especially in the AFC, that even a small injury.  

Now...all that being said does NOT mean we will still win 13 games again or have a top 3 record.  AFC is nuts, our division is tough, and we play AFC West, NFC East, plus Cincy this year.  As with any season, there could be some bumps/hiccups at times, injuries, etc that influence some of those games.  But I do think we will make the AFCCG and be one of the final 4 teams with a good shot at the SB.  

 

Top 5 overall teams IMHO and in NO particular order:  Buffalo, 49ers, Eagles, KC, and Cincy.  An argument can be made for any one of those teams to be a "top 3" team IMHO, and so I am sticking with Buffalo doing enough to remain up here and be a strong contender for the Super Bowl.  

I am with you, and to be honest? I am tired of people trying to tell me "I can't have this opinion" I think it is spot on everything you said here. Thanks for replying. 

37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not sure top 3, but it's close enough. 

 

It's hard to believe, but the Bills' roster seems to get better every season.  I like the receiving corps, I like the running back room, both probably better than ever.  I like the oline, even though there may be more work to be done.  I like the Dline.  The defensive backfield has the big three back, plus Taron Johnson, and they have two second-year corners who are seriously good.  And I think even linebacker may be better overall, because they may play with a bit more of a platoon approach.  

 

I love it.   It's up to McDermott and Dorsey. 

I think at the end of the year last year, everyone asked themselves... if we had a top 15 line would things be different? My answer to that is yes. And I think we are close to top 15 line. It will be a fun year.. we were so close last year, and I think emotions/injuries popped us out. We stay healthy, we right back to the champ game.

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I think at the end of the year last year, everyone asked themselves... if we had a top 15 line would things be different? My answer to that is yes. And I think we are close to top 15 line. It will be a fun year.. we were so close last year, and I think emotions/injuries popped us out. We stay healthy, we right back to the champ game.

Yes, and despite all the publicity about Rodgers and and Burrow and other teams, I think by the time preseason ends, the commentators will realize that the Bills will be right there again this season.  I'm officially excited. 

44 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The hard part is that nothing the Bills do during the regular season will demonstrate whether any of the teams shortcomings have been addressed.  We really won't know until 2024. 

Yes, I agree, but not because of personnel.  I think even more so than last season, how far this team goes will be about McDermott and Dorsey.  

[Rockinon]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I voted for a top 3 team still...here is why:

1. We were already a top tier team before the offseason began.  
2. We gained a lot more than we lost.  
   1. Defense - Our biggest loss is Edmunds, but we managed to keep Poyer and now get Hyde back as well.  Plus Tre should be better going into this year as it often takes until the next season to get all the way back from a torn ACL.  Von Miller will be back too.  So looking at the Bengals game last year, we lose Edmunds but gain Hyde, Von, and a better Tre...that is a net positive by all measures.  And we have brought other guys back and some new ones like Rapp and Poona.  
      1. Bonus - We will have new life from the DC position too with McD calling plays rather than the serial playoff folder Frazier.  This is a "change is good" situation in my book, at least on paper.  
   2. Offense - We got rid of guys at or near the end of their career and made upgrades else where as well.  We did not downgrade at any of the 11 spots on offense, and we have actually upgraded many.  Out are the end of career guys or guys who really just shouldn't have been starting (Brown, Cole, McKenzie, Saffold, etc).  Sherfield is better than people realize and Harty gives us that gadget like player who can also take the top off the D when needed.  Kincaid is a potential stud, and Harris/Murray combo is better than the Devin/Moss combo we started last year with.  OL is in much better shape (on paper at least) than last year too.  
3. Josh Allen - The guy is just special, anytime you have him you are automatically going to be a very tough team to beat.  But more importantly, he is back to 100% and also the mental toll that was last year is gone off him.  Yes, the whole team went through the same emotionally draining events, but it weighs even heavier on Josh given the kind of person he is, the pressure he has to lead this team, and all this team has had to ask of him to win games.  
4. Health more than ever could be a major factor on separating teams at the top this year.  The teams are so clumped at the top now, especially in the AFC, that even a small injury can shift hierarchy.  

 

Now...all that being said does NOT mean we will still win 13 games again or have a top 3 record.  AFC is nuts, our division is tough, and we play AFC West, NFC East, plus Cincy this year.  As with any season, there could be some bumps/hiccups at times, injuries, etc that influence some of those games.  But I do think we will make the AFCCG and be one of the final 4 teams with a good shot at the SB.  

 

Top 5 overall teams IMHO and in NO particular order:  Buffalo, 49ers, Eagles, KC, and Cincy.  An argument can be made for any one of those teams to be a "top 3" team IMHO, and so I am sticking with Buffalo doing enough to remain up here and be a strong contender for the Super Bowl.  

Nicely worded and agree.

[Rockinon]

If I had to guess, I think there was a concerted effort to get bigger players on the field. Just about every draft pick and FA pickup is bigger except for Edmund's replacement. I think they saw how beat up the team was by the time the playoffs came around and simply decided it's time to dish out the punishment instead.  Really optimistic about this season.