This Bills over/under seems like stealing money

[ddaryl]

I still have concerns about enough things and those concerns won't be relieved till mid Novemeber.

Does Dorsey improve and draw up some the Xs and Os to take advantage of the teams additions, and make the adjustments as the season wears on

Does Kincaid provide the safety valve Allen is missing since Beasley 1st years here

Is our OL improved enough from last year

Is our D stil capable of stopping good teams with a new MLB and no Von Miller to start the season 



By no means is betting the Bills win total over or under equal a slam dunk IMO. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by ddaryl

[Kirby Jackson]

I’m betting an uncomfortable amount of money on the Bills over 10.5. If healthy, 12-5 is the floor. Assuming that it isn’t like -145 or something crazy.
 

I am going to bet 1/2 the cost of a Super Bowl trip. If the Bills go, I will basically go for 1/2 price (or less if I win tickets in the lottery or through some connections). If they don’t go, it will roughly cover the cost of my seats next season. Win/win

[Drew21PA]

Idk I see 11 AT LEAST too

 

i like our schedule

 

nfc East - not impressed

[Gregg]

11 hours ago, Einstein said:

I wouldn’t touch this with a ten foot pole.

 

The Bills schedule is incredibly tough (at least based on last years teams). Our division alone is capable of handing us 3 or 4 losses.

 

My guess with the division is 4-2. Split MIA, NYJ, sweep NE.

[SCBills]

Just looked at the opponents for Bills, Chiefs and Bengals.  

 

Bengals schedule is noticeably weaker than the Bills and Chiefs. 

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Just looked at the opponents for Bills, Chiefs and Bengals.  

 

Bengals schedule is noticeably weaker than the Bills and Chiefs. 

 

The one good thing about the North is all 4 of those teams hate each other and they beat each other up. Maybe the Ravens can challenge the Bengals for the division because I can't see the Steelers or Browns winning it.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

If a team adds AB, does that team ➕ or ➖ projected wins? 🤔

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think you underestimate just how strong our schedule is.  I’m optimistic we will win 11-13 games still, but it’s not the lock you think it is.

 

AFCE is much tougher with Rodgers in it.  But we also play the AFC West, NFC East which has both Super Bowl teams in them, and we play Cincy who we didn’t look competitive against in the shortened game or playoff game.

I also think that what gets baked into these numbers is the not-infinitesimal chance that a key player can go down for any team. The Niners were expected to win probably 12 games in 2020 but won only 4 because of injuries. That can happen to any team. Allen could go down, for instance, and if he does, the Bills will be f**ked. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The 49er system doesn't really require a top notch QB especially in the regular season. Their defense is elite and they have an innovative offensive minded coach. 

 

 

The Bills are no lock to win 11 or 12 games. Their division competition is obviously very tough. Not a lot of separation between the Jets and Miami. NE seems to be lagging behind quite a bit. 

 

Also, the Bills schedule looks pretty tough on paper. 

 

I'm staying away from betting over or under. I think Vegas has it just about right. 

I think the Chiefs win 12 games so long as Mahomes is healthy. 

The division is tough but we underperformed in the division last year I’d say.  the division record from last year will likely remain the same.  Also last years schedule looked very difficult on paper going into the season and it never shakes out the way you think it’s gonna.
 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Scott7975]

You know how many times I have heard people say easy money on these forums and they lost their ass? Enough times to know it’s never easy money.

[dollars 2 donuts]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think you underestimate just how strong our schedule is.  I’m optimistic we will win 11-13 games still, but it’s not the lock you think it is.

 

AFCE is much tougher with Rodgers in it.  But we also play the AFC West, NFC East which has both Super Bowl teams in them, and we play Cincy who we didn’t look competitive against in the shortened game or playoff game.

 

Agreed.

 

Alpha, I absolutely love the Bills...AND 11-6 is real and not pessimistic for 2023.  Two things can be true at once.

 

I also think by the end of the year, like in 2021, this team could be locked in and potentially go far.

 

However, at Cincy, Philly and KC, plus we split with divisional rivals who are both definitely better than they were in 2022, plus the normal phantom home loss (Cowboys? Jags who beat us when they were bad?) and all this adds up to 11-6 being a possibility.

 

Although I am not a betting man (albeit I should have put money down that Picard Season 3 was going to be way better than the first two @Ridgewaycynic2013  with Terry Matalas at the helm) I will not jump on anyone that takes the under on 11.5.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Beast]

The AFC is an absolute meat-grinder. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 minute ago, Beast said:

The AFC is an absolute meat-grinder. 

 

 

We subtract a halfway decent QB in Carr from the conference, and then add a HoF QB in Rodgers, and in our division.

 

...Yep.

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

There's a reason only 5 teams have a line at 10.5 or higher. All it takes to hit the under is one key injury, one bad stretch of games, or some unlucky bounces in close games. 

[MikePJ76]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Actually the Lions are easy money.  

I kind of think the Saints are.

 

They play in a terrible division and get to play the terrible afc south.  

 

The saints are going to be one of those teams this year that becomes a story. I think they have enough talent to win 5 games in their division and 3 against the afc south.  They play the bears and packers.  The bears are much improved but playing at New Orleans gives them an advantage.  Just seems like they are going to be a sleeper team to me, win 10 games and the south and host a playoff game.

Edited May 2, 2023 by MikePJ76

[BillsSbSoon]

Saints eagles overs. I’m not a big carr fan at all but if he plays well that is a really sneaky over. That division is awful. Lions too

Edited May 2, 2023 by BillsSbSoon

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m betting an uncomfortable amount of money on the Bills over 10.5. If healthy, 12-5 is the floor. Assuming that it isn’t like -145 or something crazy.
 

I am going to bet 1/2 the cost of a Super Bowl trip. If the Bills go, I will basically go for 1/2 price (or less if I win tickets in the lottery or through some connections). If they don’t go, it will roughly cover the cost of my seats next season. Win/win

 

Now did you tell your wife / family about this? paging @BuffaloRush aka @JohnNord lol

 

 

 

[frostbitmic]

Which ever way I bet, the opposite will happen ... Therefore I'd bet the under.

[Matt_In_NH]

14 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Math does not add up….look at summtotal for each division.  To get say chiefs/ bengals high they need a lower team in their division thst what I see.

 

 

This is vegas betting lines, they dont need to balance

[Mr. WEO]

20 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The Bills at a minimum are a 11-12 win team this seems like stealing money…and how can you take the 49ers being over when they barely have a quarterback 

 

 

49ers won 13 last year.  their barely a QB guy went 7-1 through the playoffs.