Demented Biden and China

[Irv]

In your honest opinion, what would Demented Biden do if China invaded Taiwan?  I really don't think he or whoever is running the Executive Branch, would do anything.  I thnk he'd soil himself again and go hide in the basement.  What a mess.    

[ArdmoreRyno]

9 minutes ago, Irv said:

In your honest opinion, what would Demented Biden do if China invaded Taiwan?  I really don't think he or whoever is running the Executive Branch, would do anything.  I thnk he'd soil himself again and go hide in the basement.  What a mess.    

 

He wouldn't do anything but send money and weapons to Taiwan and countries going directly at China. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

25 minutes ago, Irv said:

In your honest opinion, what would Demented Biden do if China invaded Taiwan?  I really don't think he or whoever is running the Executive Branch, would do anything.  I thnk he'd soil himself again and go hide in the basement.  What a mess.    

What would you want to do?

 

I’m not interested in going to war with China. 
 

if we just stopped buying their stuff, that it would impact them. Not sure we could do it though or who it would hurt more. 

[sherpa]

This is a generationally complex question.

First, Taiwan produces an amazing amount the the world's semiconductor output.

If that supply line is blocked, we're into an immediate economic debacle.

 

The military question is just as complex.

A recent war game scenario, based on Biden's expressed promise to defend Taiwan, had the Chinese preemptively striking US air assets on Guam and Kadena, Okinawa.

That is gloves off war.

 

The Chinese have created a military production infrastructure that far surpasses the US.

They can produce ships at one third the time it takes the US, as the US is now down to four such facilities.

 

The US still has far more military capability, but that is diminished by the the close nature of Taiwan to mainland China.

 

This is not a good scenario.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 minutes ago, sherpa said:

This is a generationally complex question.

First, Taiwan produces an amazing amount the the world's semiconductor output.

If that supply line is blocked, we're into an immediate economic debacle.

 

The military question is just as complex.

A recent war game scenario, based on Biden's expressed promise to defend Taiwan, had the Chinese preemptively striking US air assets on Guam and Kadena, Okinawa.

That is gloves off war.

 

The Chinese have created a military production infrastructure that far surpasses the US.

They can produce ships at one third the time it takes the US, as the US is now down to four such facilities.

 

The US still has far more military capability, but that is diminished by the the close nature of Taiwan to mainland China.

 

This is not a good scenario.

If they preemptively strike US assets directly, now it’s not just a Taiwan invasion. 

[sherpa]

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

If they preemptively strike US assets directly, now it’s not just a Taiwan invasion. 

 

Nope, but the current US stated position is that it would defend Taiwan against an invasion, so it makes sense to pre-emptively go after US' superior in range air power, so that was included in the scenario.

The US has significant advantages in a number of areas, especially in submarine capability, but that isn't a game changer.

The Chinese Navy is less capable, but huge, and has an incredible industrial base, ie replenishment, advantage.

 

None of that includes what is unknown about cyber and satellite destruction/capability, but that is thought to be another significant component to Chinese capability and intent.

 

It aint good.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Nope, but the current US stated position is that it would defend Taiwan against an invasion, so it makes sense to pre-emptively go after US' superior in range air power, so that was included in the scenario.

The US has significant advantages in a number of areas, especially in submarine capability, but that isn't a game changer.

The Chinese Navy is less capable, but huge, and has an incredible industrial base, ie replenishment, advantage.

 

None of that includes what is unknown about cyber and satellite destruction/capability, but that is thought to be another significant component to Chinese capability and intent.

 

It aint good.

 

my hope is we slowly cede new world order without a big bang war event. 
 

sort of like 19th century Europe gave way to 20th century US. 
 

It difficult but almost impossible to pretend US downfall isnt inevitable at this point.  On top of all that you cite, Our next generation coming up is no match for theirs in terms of smarts, hunger, intelligence, resilience or sheer size. 

[sherpa]

6 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

my hope is we slowly cede new world order without a big bang war event. 
 

sort of like 19th century Europe gave way to 20th century US. 
 

It difficult but almost impossible to pretend US downfall isnt inevitable at this point.  On top of all that you cite, Our next generation coming up is no match for theirs in terms of smarts, hunger, intelligence, resilience or sheer size. 

 

All true.

 

The wildcard is that the Chinese Communist Party probably understands that there is a timeline.

They have lots of long range problems and their advantage is best between now and 2027.

 

I think that their best option, if they truly intend to takeover Taiwan, is to do it between a Republican Presidential victory in the 2024 election and the inauguration.

If a Democrat victory they can wait a bit.

[TSOL]

We will take all the engineers and blow the factories before china takes Taiwan. They're not getting those factories or the people that know how to run them when they take it. 

[sherpa]

3 minutes ago, TSOL said:

We will take all the engineers and blow the factories before china takes Taiwan. They're not getting those factories or the people that know how to run them when they take it. 

 

Sadly, they've already got them.

[TSOL]

9 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Sadly, they've already got them.

 

I'm not convinced of that. The Taiwanese like democracy alot. 

[sherpa]

7 minutes ago, TSOL said:

 

I'm not convinced of that. The Taiwanese like democracy alot. 

 

Ever done business in China?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

26 minutes ago, TSOL said:

 

I'm not convinced of that. The Taiwanese like democracy alot. 

 

18 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Ever done business in China?

they are very advanced and growing fast.

 

They reverse engineer everything they haven’t built themselves and figure out how to do it better as well as spend vast government resources stealing intellectual property.  
 

Everyone does this a little bit they are super committed. 

 

what’s more they are a culture overly committed to math and science, not TikTok challenges and sexual proclivities…  kids are allowed 1 hour of video gaming per week, and have social media limits etc.  

 

Their value systems are setting them up for long term generational success, too bad it take authoritarianism to get there. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Precision]

China has a lot going for it, but their time is now.  In the future, they won't be able to overcome their demographic problems. 

 

Far too many old people will be an issue for the economy as by 2050 they will have 330 million people over the age of 65.   

 

The cultural child preference for boys over girls currently has males outnumbering females by over 30 million.  That will be a source of instability as many males will be angry and alone.  This will also impact population growth as females will "be in the driver's seat" regarding family sizes.

 

China's birthrate will decline (as is typical for countries as their economy matures).  They will struggle over time as smaller and smaller populations are burdened by a larger population of elderly to support.

 

China’s Aging Population Is a Major Threat to Its Future

 

China's first population drop in six decades sounds alarm on demographic crisis

 

In my opinion India will be a nation to watch after around 2050 although I won't be around to see it.  The US population will be around 433 million by then!

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

13 minutes ago, Precision said:

China has a lot going for it, but their time is now.  In the future, they won't be able to overcome their demographic problems. 

 

Far too many old people will be an issue for the economy as by 2050 they will have 330 million people over the age of 65.   

 

The cultural child preference for boys over girls currently has males outnumbering females by over 30 million.  That will be a source of instability as many males will be angry and alone.  This will also impact population growth as females will "be in the driver's seat" regarding family sizes.

 

China's birthrate will decline (as is typical for countries as their economy matures).  They will struggle over time as smaller and smaller populations are burdened by a larger population of elderly to support.

 

China’s Aging Population Is a Major Threat to Its Future

 

China's first population drop in six decades sounds alarm on demographic crisis

 

In my opinion India will be a nation to watch after around 2050 although I won't be around to see it.  The US population will be around 433 million by then!

 

 

They can fix that old population problem by leaving the wuhan lab door open again… 

 

Do not understand India. They export so much talent. They should be a top player but they’re government might be more corrupt and dysfunctional than ours. 

[Coffeesforclosers]

You know, I want to turn this thread into the Let's Go Brandon circle jerk that the OP wants.

 

But I'm enjoying the grown up discussion too much. 

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

You know, I want to turn this thread into the Let's Go Brandon circle jerk that the OP wants.

 

But I'm enjoying the grown up discussion too much. 

 

The issue is pretty grown up as well.

 

Long term, Russia has exposed itself. Compose heap.

 

The issue is whether China can form enough of a constituency to threaten the west.

 

That has never happened, but short term, it can have massive economic and military consequences.

[T master]

What's taking so long to find out the exact reason why the Biden family had money deposited into their personal accounts ? 

 

For gods sake they raided Trumps house because he said he wouldn't give them the papers with in a few days . They have had Hunters lap top now for almost 3 years & know his back ground being a total POS & they know that there was money deposited so WTH are they waiting for ?

 

Either figure out that it was above board & say so or put it out there like they have done in any previous dealing with past presidents once they do Joe won't remember it in a couple of days anyway ...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, T master said:

What's taking so long to find out the exact reason why the Biden family had money deposited into their personal accounts ? 

 

For gods sake they raided Trumps house because he said he wouldn't give them the papers with in a few days . They have had Hunters lap top now for almost 3 years & know his back ground being a total POS & they know that there was money deposited so WTH are they waiting for ?

 

Either figure out that it was above board & say so or put it out there like they have done in any previous dealing with past presidents once they do Joe won't remember it in a couple of days anyway ...

Not going to happen.

 

It’s not like he paid a tramp to not disclose an affair. He merely enriched his entire family peddling his influence to foreign adversaries. 
 

Nothing burger 

[Coffeesforclosers]

11 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

Long term, Russia has exposed itself. Compose heap.

 

What worries me is that long term, we could get a Russia with a rationalized MIC. Rather than the current fun house of corruption and ineffeciency. 

 

11 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

The issue is whether China can form enough of a constituency to threaten the west.

 

Agreed. 

 

11 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

That has never happened, but short term, it can have massive economic and military consequences.

 

Agreed. Hopefully they continue with Wolf Warrior diplomacy. Pivoting back to a more Deng Xiaoping inspired strategy would very bad for us.

 

Especially since we show no inkling of converting our MIC from something that smashes third world countries and subsidizes congressional districts, to something that can sustain a near peer war for years.