Have we bridged the playoff gap?

[finn]

You know, the Kincaid-Torrence picks may be the most significant combo picks since Allen-Edmunds, in terms of what they allow the team to do. Think about it from the perspective of the opposing defensive coordinator. If you put in a linebacker to cover Kincaid, you're playing right into the Bills offensive strengths. But if you bring a DB, you're now facing Damien Harris running behind Torrence and Brown (who is a terrific run blocker even if he mostly sucks at pass pro), with Knox blocking downfield and Kincaid at least getting in the way of some DBs. 

 

Taken together, Kincaid and Torrence have given the Bills a second dimension. Do the Bills get that? If they do, look for Beane to sign another power back soon. 

[Rigotz]

For me, I think this team still needs a nice DT and DE for the rotation.

 

After that, I feel very confident in the team, but wouldn’t say there was ever a “gap.”

[streetkings01]

10 hours ago, Rat-boy said:

I love this logic, since we all know the outcome of every game is determined after the first two drives.

 

I have proposal: let’s shorten games to the first four drives. 60 minutes is ridiculous. ChatGPT can predict the outcomes afterwards with virtual certainty.😒

 

Well it sure carried over into the playoff game……looked like Cinci picked up where they left off. Not sure why my post triggered you 🤷🏽‍♂️

[Don Otreply]

12 hours ago, NewEra said:

You can frame stats however you’d like to frame them my man

 

Nfl scoring defense

2022- 2nd 

2021- 1st

2020- 16th

2019- 2nd 

Since allen has been to QB- the bills have had a top 2 scoring defense 3 out of 4 seasons.

 

3 of the last 4 years, he’s had a top 2 defense

 

3 of the last 4 years, he’s had a top 2 defense

 

3 of the last 4 years, he’s had a top 2 defense

 

what?

 

Are you purposefully brushing aside that top two defenses lack of Post season success?  That lack of success  is the elephant in the room, and is why Frazier is no longer the DC. 
 

  Regular season success was never  the issue, but more was required of Frazier and he couldn’t deliver when it counted the most… in the post season…, 

 

 

    
 

 

[Boatdrinks]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is going to upset people, but here are the correct preseason AFC rankings

1. Chiefs

2. Bengals

3. Bills, Ravens

 

Looks about right. What’s to be upset about ? First one is obvious, and the second was in the AFC title game. No real argument to be made there. 

[NewEra]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Great question. The chiefs did change 3 out of their 4 top weapons between 2021 and 2022 including their Top RB and their top 2 WRs. More importantly though, they had less work that was required because their team was already championship caliber with the Best QB and the Best TE in the game having netted a SB Championship two years prior.

Their main deficiency was on defense where they added multiple new starters at linebacker, corner, and safety and saw the emergence of second year star linebacker Nick Bolton.

I hope that answers your question.

LOL-  yes, it was a great question.  I appreciate you NOT answering it. 

 

I specifically asked “what upgrades did the chiefs make” -  I didn’t ask what changes made.

 

They stayed healthy all season. They were even healthy when we beat them in their own house.  
 

Injuries matter and they derailed our season and our mental state.  

Edited May 1, 2023 by NewEra

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Dolphins did not "give us all we could handle." That is utter rubbish. The Bills had 423 yards at 5.9 yards per play in that game. The Dolphins had 231 yards at 3.3 yards per play. The only reason that wasn't a blow was the Bills making unforced errors on offense and special teams that gave the Dolphins short fields. The story of that game and the Bengals game is that the Bills simply were playing nowhere near their best football down the stretch last year. Maybe it was emotional exhaustion but I don't think so. I just think they had too many key players missing or playing hurt. 

 

We were up 17-0 early on and then we had an INT brought back to the 18, a sack fumble for a TD and another INT taken back to the 49.  We handed them 17 points.

[NewEra]

10 hours ago, Billl said:

I’ve already acknowledged that injuries matter.  Old players with injury histories are more likely to get injured again.  It’s why, after the Buccs Super Bowl, the Chiefs replaced all 5 starters on the OL.  They learned from the loss and now they’re champions again after not allowing a sack to the most dominant pass rushing team in the league.  In 2021, Buffalo torched the Chiefs secondary in the playoffs.  The Chiefs responded by adding 2 new Safeties and 3 new Corners.

 

The Bills haven’t done that after getting “OBLITERATED” by the Bengals in the divisional round.  Hyde, Poyer, Miller, and White are all being counted on heavily to have bounce-back years, and 3 of those guys will be 32 years or older next year.  They’re all really talented guys, but the odds of them getting hurt or simply wearing down again are substantial.  Buffalo had the oldest roster in the league last season, and they’re going to be older this year.  They’ve got 7 players expected to be starters who will be 30 or over.  Kansas City has 1.  Buffalo had 11 players over 30 start games last year.  The Chiefs had 2 (Carlos Dunlap started 2 games.)

 

I don’t have to pretend that the Chiefs are in a tier above the Bills.  The Chiefs have gone 11-3 in the postseason the past 5 seasons with two championships and are 2-0 against Buffalo during that span.  The Bills are a really good team, but they’re in the second tier with the Bengals, Eagles, and 49ers right now.  If you don’t believe me, check the Vegas odds.

 

Sorry you have such a problem with me saying that I think there is a gap in a thread asking whether or not the Bills have bridged said gap.  You’re free to disregard my posts rather than specifically messaging me asking me to elaborate.  Just because you don’t like my conclusions doesn’t mean that I’m being unreasonable.  

 

The Bengals and Chiefs are loaded with young talent.  The Bills are loaded with old talent.  That was true last year, and it’s going to be true this year.  Doesn’t mean the Bills can’t still win a championship, as they’re still among the favorites.  They are likely to experience injuries to key players, though.

When talking about there being a perceived gap beetween two teams - the comparison starts on the field against each other.

 

I have a problem with there being a perceived gap because I’ve watched the last 3 games the teams have played against each other.  We beat you 2 of 3 games in your own house.  The only game we lost was due to a miscommunication that resulted in a touchback.  We’ve outplayed the cheifs- in their own stadium consistently since the AFCCG beatdown we took.  We did that, with old players-  we did that with injured players.  We did that while Brandon Beane was getting out drafted by Veach every year.  
 

there’s a big difference between us keeping our old players and you getting rid of your old players.  Our old players are all pro players. Yours were not.  

 

Your post doesn’t explain why there is a gap.  Your post explains what you’ve done to improve.  And you have improved.  

I will say that the chiefs have 3 major advantages:  Kelce (34 years old btw), coaching and GM.  Yet we’ve still won 2 of 3 in your house-  while being on the short end of this perceived gap. 
 

I have nothing but respect for the mini dynasty you’ve built and it all starts up top. Much respect to Reid and Veach.  I think Reid is currently the best HC in the league and Veach is a top 2 GM, if not the best.  You’ll continue to be a SB contender while they are in charge.  And we’ll continue to be right there with you….. beating you in your own stadium while being the preview lesser team—- even though we were -2.5 favorites.  

[BuffaloRebound]

You would never know we were 13-3 by the way most people are talking about this team.  I think it sets up nicely for us to be the hunter instead of the hunted this year.  There’s a lot of guys who could have either bounce-back or contract year type seasons.  Tre, Hyde, Oliver, Epenesa, Basham, Rousseau, Spencer Brown, Gabe, Harris, even Knox.  Then I’d expect increased contribution from Elam and Cook plus a jolt from Kincaid and Torrence.  That’s not even factoring in Josh coming in re-focused after a year in which he became a mega-star.  Diggs, Milano, maybe Tremaine, Morse and Dawkins were probably only guys who had really good years by their standards.  There’s a lot of room for this team to improve.  

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

We were up 17-0 early on and then we had an INT brought back to the 18, a sack fumble for a TD and another INT taken back to the 49.  We handed them 17 points.

 

Yep. 

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Dolphins did not "give us all we could handle." That is utter rubbish. The Bills had 423 yards at 5.9 yards per play in that game. The Dolphins had 231 yards at 3.3 yards per play. The only reason that wasn't a blow was the Bills making unforced errors on offense and special teams that gave the Dolphins short fields. The story of that game and the Bengals game is that the Bills simply were playing nowhere near their best football down the stretch last year. Maybe it was emotional exhaustion but I don't think so. I just think they had too many key players missing or playing hurt. 

Thank you. I have been saying this since the immediate post-mortem of that game, yet some fans continue to simply look at the scoreboard and think it was a different game than it actually was. You neglected to mention that the Dolphins' team passer rating that game was a beyond-terrible 41.8 (18-45 for 189 net yards; 1 TD and 2 INTs).

12 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Josh got injured on the second to last play of the game. It was literally the play before the hail mary. You’re blaming the loss on THAT?

 

 

The offense put up 30 points. You’re saying the defense was a dumpster fire, giving up nearly 500 yards, because of Allen’s elbow injury? 

 

 

While barely squeeking by the likes of Detroit and Miami.

 

 

I haven’t seen this many excuses since {omitting this part since it’s not the politics forum}

Detroit was one of the best teams in the NFL in the second half of the season.

[NewEra]

58 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Are you purposefully brushing aside that top two defenses lack of Post season success?  That lack of success  is the elephant in the room, and is why Frazier is no longer the DC. 
 

Regular season success was never  the issue, but more was required of Frazier and he couldn’t deliver when it counted the most… in the post season…, 

 

 

    
 

 

I agree. I wanted Frazier out.  I thought he was a huge problem come playoffs.  Too predictable and not aggressive enough.  Not multiple enough.   My point was- you can find stats that be used as evidence in support of most arguments

 

Poor playoff coaching has been a boon in our side, while KCs coaching has been the main reason for their success.  

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Detroit was one of the best teams in the NFL in the second half of the season.

 

They were...very impressed what Campbell is doing there.

 

They won 6 out of their last 8 and beat 3 playoff teams (Giants/Vikings/Jags) in that span too.  I think they make the playoffs next year for sure.  They have an offense.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The division keeps getting tougher.
 

The Bengals passed at will on the Bills defense , that part is supposed to be the strength which lost a big experienced piece of their zone scheme.

 

Von needs to stay on the field. Micah TreD and po need to get back to form. Secondary could be great. 
 

QB1 needs to start taking what’s there in the intermediate to short middle to unlock the offensive potential instead of holding the Ball for that deep shot into the cover 2 shell. 

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, ganesh said:

If you look at where our pain point was last time and if we have solve it, then the answer is NO.  The playoffs are NOT about outscoring your opponents with offense. That works against weak teams in the Wild card.  But when it comes to Divisional and Championship round, the defense has to be strong and control the line of scrimmage.  Chiefs and Bengals have that type of defense.  Unfortunately, the Bills did not improve that area in FA or the Draft. 

 

The Bills were weak in Defense (in spite of giving up less points) when it came to the playoffs.  The defense gave up 33 points to the Dolphins (with a 3rd string QB) and then 27 points to the Bengals.  Both games were at home. 

 

In the Bengals game, the defense was unable to stop the quick pass and the run game.  They were able to control the line of scrimmage.  The pass rush was sorely missing.

 

The pass rush was also missing against the Dolphins 3rd string QB.  

 

On the defensive side, the Bills will not have Von MIller for the 1st half of the season. I hope he is ready for the playoffs. 

 

Unless Epenesa, Basham and Rosseau can step up significantly, we will not be able to get to Mahomes, Burrow.  Heck, we will have difficulty with Jackson, Herbert and Watson. 

 

The Bills need a change in defensive philosophy and need strong play by Jones, Oliver and Settle along with the above DEs and Shaq Lawson to make a difference in the Playoffs. 

 

 

But will that be enough to overcome the deficiency of our defense when comes to Divisional or Championship round?

Totally agree.  The drafted players on our defense MUST make a difference for us to win a SB.  That includes. Oliver, Rosseau, Basham, Epenesa, Elam, Bernard, Williams,   (all Day 1 or Day 2 picks).     The ROI on this group of people (minus Williams) have been below average to terrible.   That is the biggest reason for this team to be choking in the playoffs.

The bolded- did we not have that defense in October when we went into the game played in KC as 2.5 point favorites?  That same game where von Miller dominated on 3rd down after 3rd down in the 4th quarter to hold KC scoreless on their last 2 possessions (and 3 points in the 4th qtr).

 

We had that DL that you speak of.   Then von got injured.  Daquan got injured.  Phillips was injured.  

[Coach Tuesday]

The only area of the roster where the Bills are demonstrably better is o-line.  And that might be enough.  The struggles at LG and RT last year cascaded into constant issues for Allen and the offense.  If Brown is healthy and McGovern isn’t a turnstile they’re already better - and Torrence will compete for snaps as well (I’m not yet convinced he starts week 1).

 

Beyond that, it’s all about injury luck.  On offense, any loss of Allen (obviously), Diggs, Dawkins, Knox or Kinkaid, in that order probably, will make things significantly tougher.  On defense, they are thin up the middle - which is where you don’t want to be thin.  I expect Beane knows that and will be adding some beef over the next several weeks.

 

Overall they still have given themselves a small margin for error with the lack of true playmakers on offense.  They seem to realize the issue but have left themselves with limited resources to deal with it, hence the lottery-ticket approach to acquiring receivers this offseason despite being connected to multiple “big names.”

[Big Blitz]

There wasn’t a gap for us to bridge.  
 

2021-2022 was our best rookie contract Allen chance to win.  
 

2023-24 concludes that “all in” window with Miller, Poyer, Hyde, and to some extent Diggs.  
 

Then by 2025 it’s going to be a lot different roster.   
 

 

The problem is the AFC is freaking loaded and almost every team has closed the gap.

 

The Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, and maybe the Ravens, Browns, and the Chargers are all significantly better then their 2021-22 teams.
 

The Chiefs and Bengals still elite.  
 

 

Being healthy - that’s the team that wins in the AFC.  That’s how close it is.  And home field is completely worthless.  Just build a great team.  Only 1 gets home field.  The 2 teams that had it last year played 3 games against a joke of competition - and the 4th game the Bengals at Chiefs - the Bengals and their mayor decided to give KC every extra piece of motivation imaginable.  

Edited May 1, 2023 by Big Blitz

[Thurman#1]

I'm not convinced there is any gap.

 

The Bills just had an awful game. On top of the absolute wave of defensive injuries.

 

After a season like this, an awful game isn't surprising, in retrospect anyway.

 

The healthy Bills handily beat the Chiefs this year. They've been good enough both of the last two years.

[PBF81]

21 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I know that this is a common theory, but in my opinion it ignores a mountain of evidence.

 

For example, the Bengals walked down the field and scored a TD, and were carving up chunks of yards again on their second drive before Hamlin went down.

 

The Dolphins gave us all we could handle the week before, and that was with a 3rd string QB (yes, I know the Dolphins offense did very little, but the game was still very tight). We lost to Zach Wilson and the Jets too.

 

I think it was more than an aberration.

 

You are correct.  Had the Bengals continued to move the ball the way that they had prior to Hamlin's collapse, they would have racked up a ton of points.  Who knows whether we would have kept up in a track meet as such.  But given how their D manhandled us in the playoff game it certainly leaves enormous doubts.  

 

As to the rest, you're on point.  Here's my take, every offseason people say that Allen "doesn't have the weapons," despite whom we add, which always seems to be grand prior to the season but by season’s end Allen “needs weapons” again. My problem in all of it is that we haven’t made optimal use of the weapons that we have had whether it be under Daboll or Dorsey with the latter being worse, probably because he’s an OJT OC although I have my doubts that he has the intellectual/strategic wherewithal to actually put it all together optimally. This season will reveal definitively what the case is, Dorsey has absolutely no excuses whatsoever for not putting up a well-balanced #1 or #2 offense.  Neither the Chiefs nor the Bengals have the breadth and depth of offensive talent at the skill positions that we have.  

 

After that, our problem hasn’t been during the regular season where we’ve averaged 12.3 wins over the past three seasons en route to a division title every year. Our problem has been the postseason, and therein it’s been the defense, which played to #1 or #2 levels, but then drops off in the postseason and where we cannot advance past the divisional round with one exception three seasons ago.  It’s a fact that it’s been one of the worst scoring defenses in the postseason the past two years.

 

But also overlooked is the fact that Diggs has also disappeared in the post season. In four of our last five playoff games, discounting the Miami game featuring Skylar Thompson this past fall, Diggs has averaged 4 catches for 45 yards and hasn’t had a single TD in any of them. That’s hardly optimizing Diggs.

 

To add some perspective, in those same four games Davis has averaged 3 catches for 69 yards and 1.25 TDs. And Davis’ game vs. Miami was identical to Diggs’ except that he posted a TD. Knox in those same four games has averaged 4.5 catches for 51 yards and ¾ of a TD. Beasley in those same four games averaged just over 4 catches and 52 yards, also no TDs, slightly better than Diggs. So questions exist as to why they don’t get more out of Diggs in our most important games. One has to look at the OC.

 

We also haven’t made optimal use, far from it in fact, with our RBs. People discount Singletary, but there have been times where he’s tearing it up and we stop running him, why? That’s not good coaching.

 

He’s perfectly capable seemingly of carrying the ball 250-300 times/game. If he had gotten 250 carries, at his 4.7/carry, he’d have logged 1,175 rushing yards, and assuming a few more TDs, along with his 280 receiving assuming no more catches there, he’d have ranked 6th in rushing just ahead of Dalvin Cook, and 14th in yards-from-scrimmage. Instead, everyone’s screaming to get Dalvin Cook here. If Singletary had posted those numbers would everyone be saying that we needed a RB? He’s better than Harris. No RB that gets 177 carries is going to post impressive stats.

 

But back to the D, I took the liberty of breaking down our pass defense insofar as the pressure stats go, before and after Von Miller went out, in the Detroit game. I didn’t count that game, and there were 10 prior to it and 5 after it, exactly half. We played Tagavailoa both before and after, but otherwise, the four QBs faced “after” were Mac Jones twice, Mike White, and Justin Fields. I think we can agree, low end all three. And keep in mind, some of the QBs in the first 10 games were Rodgers, Mahomes, Cousins, Jackson, Stafford, and Tannehill. The low-end ones were Pickett, Brissett, and Wilson, the latter three similar to those in the last five games.

 

There was no significant difference in average completions or attempts, and as expected given the low-end caliber of QBs, the passing yards dropped by about 10%, 22 YPG, but here’s where it gets interesting.

 

Opponent TD production, again, with those QBs, increased by 16.7% while INT generation dropped by 38.5%, again, against those low-end QBs. Sack generation dropped by 21.4% while QB Hits dropped by 26.2%. That’s with essentially the unit we’ll be fielding this season minus Edmunds, a very veteran MLB like him or not.

 

This season however, here are some of the QBs that we’ll be facing:

 

Hurts, Daniel Jones, Prescott, Lawrence, Burrow, Rodgers (twice), Tagavaloa (twice), Mahomes, Herbert, and Garoppolo. A bunch of those teams have great defenses as well and some have excellent running games to balance out their offenses.  Six of those QBs, two of whom we face twice, ranked among the top-11 in passing TD production.  

 

But here’s the thing, if we extrapolate our pass-rush stats out for 17 games, here’s how we would have ranked based upon last season’s rankings:

 

18th in passing TDs allowed

12th in INT generation

23rd in Sack generation

24th in Sack %

26th in QB Hits

 

As anyone can see that’s way below average. But why should that change this season? Sure, we get Miller back, coming off of major knee surgery, and at the age of 35. While came back from similar last season and was a shell of his former self last season. If he doesn’t take a huge step up this season, and I anticipate that he will, then it could be very bad defensively against the QBs and offenses that we’ll be facing, on teams many of which have great running games and balance. It’s not wise to expect much from Miller anymore. That acquisition was a high-risk high-reward signing that unfortunately didn’t play out favorably for us due to his injury. It is what it is however.

 

Ultimately, the point is that it’s foolish to expect a #1 or even a top-10 defense again with who-knows-what in the middle of our D, namely the LBs. Milano can’t do the job of the entire linebacking unit and it’s ridiculous to expect anything more than average play there otherwise, at best.

 

Our pass rush is below average without Miller playing at the level that he did last season, our linebacking unit is an enormous question mark, and until further notice we don’t have a single above average CB unless White’s play gets back to even close to where it was or one of the others makes a sizable leap. The strength of our D is Poyer and Hyde, both 32, and both with injury issues that are not 100% resolved. Hyde’s, per his own statements, appears to be chronic despite whether it keeps in off the field or not, and unless I missed it, Poyer did not get offseason surgery for his knee.

 

At the end of the day, why would this defense play better in the playoffs than the ones prior to it, leaving that as a rhetorical question.

 

Not one of the four contestants in the conference championship games finished with less than a 16th ranked (KC) scoring D, or 12th (KC) yardage D. Cincinnati, Philly, and San Fran were all well into the top-10. The worst scoring D otherwise that advanced to the Divisional Round was 17th. (Giants) Those are the roadblocks to a championship before us. I’m just not sure that we’ll be there on D this season. We’ll need some luck with injuries and if Milano were to go down I quite honestly don’t’ see how our D doesn’t drop to well below average all around.

 

We’ll see, time will tell, but it looks like we’re in for a lot of track-meet games.

 

 

[SCBills]

3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The only area of the roster where the Bills are demonstrably better is o-line.  And that might be enough.  The struggles at LG and RT last year cascaded into constant issues for Allen and the offense.  If Brown is healthy and McGovern isn’t a turnstile they’re already better - and Torrence will compete for snaps as well (I’m not yet convinced he starts week 1).

 

Beyond that, it’s all about injury luck.  On offense, any loss of Allen (obviously), Diggs, Dawkins, Knox or Kinkaid, in that order probably, will make things significantly tougher.  On defense, they are thin up the middle - which is where you don’t want to be thin.  I expect Beane knows that and will be adding some beef over the next several weeks.

 

Overall they still have given themselves a small margin for error with the lack of true playmakers on offense.  They seem to realize the issue but have left themselves with limited resources to deal with it, hence the lottery-ticket approach to acquiring receivers this offseason despite being connected to multiple “big names.”

 

I think there's a disconnect between people comparing this team to last years starting roster and those of us looking at this years team compared to last years ending roster.  

 

This is what we ended the season with:

 

Allen - partially torn UCL

Singletary/Cook/Hines

Diggs/Davis/Beasley/Shakir

Knox/Morris

Dawkins/Saffold/Morse/Bates/Brown

 

Rousseau/Shaq/Epenesa/Basham

Oliver/Phillips/Settle/Ankou

Milano/Edmunds

White/Elam/Johnson

Poyer/Marlowe

 

This is what we project, as of today, for '23

 

Allen (healthy)

Cook/Harris/Hines

Diggs/Davis/Shakir/Harty

Knox/Kincaid

Dawkins/McGovern/Morse/Torrence/Brown

 

Von/Rousseau/Shaq/Epenesa

Oliver/Jones/Phillips/Settle

Milano/???

White/Elam/Johnson

Hyde/Poyer

 

 

The highlighted are guys who I believe are noticeable improvements over last years final game debacle.  That doesn't take into account Dorsey in his second year, McDermott taking over the defense, and any improvements for guys like Spencer Brown, Kaiir Elam and James Cook.

 

The only spot I believe we downgraded was MLB.  Every other spot on the roster, imo, is the same or in 8 cases, will be much improved over what we saw from that position in the Bengals game.  I also believe we have MUCH better depth across the board and I'll go to my grave thinking Allen was much...much more injured that anyone was ever led to believe.  

 

Of course there will be injuries next year, but let's hope we finally get some KC injury luck, because last year was patently absurd. 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by SCBills