Have we bridged the playoff gap?

[Rat-boy]

3 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

I gotta agree with this…..that first Bengals game was either headed for a shootout or a blowout in favor of Cinci.

I love this logic, since we all know the outcome of every game is determined after the first two drives.

 

I have proposal: let’s shorten games to the first four drives. 60 minutes is ridiculous. ChatGPT can predict the outcomes afterwards with virtual certainty.😒

 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

I don’t disagree with you on the defense.   As of today, it comes down to McDermott being better than Frazier and Von, Hyde and White regaining at least 80% of what they were pre-injury. 
 

On offense, I just think it’s insane to think we’re worse.   In my view, this is the best OL talent and skill weaponry that Allen has had since becoming a Bill. 

Based on the addition of a mid-tier guard and a 2nd round rookie? We've made only 1 change to our top 4 weapons of offense (Diggs-Davis-Knox-Singletary) to (Diggs-Davis-Knox-Cook). I could very reasonably see Kincaid slotting in as the number 5 contributor, but that isn't a mindblowing shift for me the way adding someone like Hopkins at #2 would have been.

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I take great comfort in the accuracy of your track record. 

Sadly, so do I. I keep hoping that I'm wrong about this stuff, but unfortunately here we are. Be sure to @me when we raise the banner for our 2023 Division championship.

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're adding extra reps that don't exist though. He's taking part of McKenzie's job and his presence puts Shakir on the bench. There's only so many catches to go around.

You're assuming that we played McKenzie 100 percent of the time then?  I didn't quantify reps.  I simply agreed that Kincaid would have McKenzie like numbers and that Shakir would also put up McKenzie like numbers.  I'll stick by that.  I think there are plent of snaps in a game for both Kincaid and Shakir to have 40 catches even if they aren't on the field at the same time.

[VW82]

12 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If he does that, he'll be one of a couple of guys in the last 20 years to have done it. You're banking on winning the lottery with a guy who was not an elite level prospect despite being near the top of the class. This isn't Kyle Pitts or Vernon Davis. He's an undersized and relatively slow TE that doesn't have a TE1 skillset.

Again, maybe he's great in a few years, but I'm seeing 40 catches for 450 yards and 4 TDs as his likely 2023 output.

Maybe that will be his rookie output. No one knows for sure. Knock him all you want but Kincaid was thought to be the top pass catcher in the draft and he certainly plays fast. We need a receiving threat who can take pressure off Diggs. Kincaid actually has the talent to do that. It's not going to take three years either. That's ridiculously pessimistic. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by VW82

[BullBuchanan]

8 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Maybe that will be his rookie output. No one knows for sure. Knock him all you want but Kincaid was thought to be the top pass catcher in the draft and he certainly plays fast. We need a receiving threat who can take pressure off Diggs. Kincaid actually has the talent to do that. It's not going to take three years either. That's ridiculously pessimistic. 

If the goal isn't to win the Super Bowl in 2023, you have the wrong goal. It's not pessimistic to expect a rookie TE to need 3 years, it's close to best case scenario.

Teams draft piles of tight ends every year, and there's only ever a handful of good ones in the league at any given time and there's been even less elite ones over the last 20+ years. Expecting Kincaid to be an all-star just because he was one of the top TE's this year is what every team hopes when they draft players like Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Hunter Henry, Maxx Williams, Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener and on and on.

Look at this list of people you barely remember and realize that trying to draft an elite TE is about as hard as drafting a franchise QB: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

Edited May 1, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Maine-iac]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

If the goal isn't to win the Super Bowl in 2023, you ave the wrong goal. It's not pessimistic to expect a rookie TE to need 3 years, it's close to best case scenario.

Teams draft piles of tight ends every year, and there's only ever a handful of good ones in the league at any given time and there's been even less elite ones over the last 20+ years. Expecting Kincaid to be an all-star just because he was one of the top TE's this year is what every team hopes when they draft players like Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Hunter Henry, Maxx Williams, Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener and on and on.

Look at this list of people you barely remember and realize that trying to draft an elite TE is about as hard as drafting a franchise QB: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

We were a top 5 offense with Morris and Sweeney.  I'm pretty sure Kincaid makes the offense better even if he doesn't put up Kyle PItts numbers.

[VW82]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If the goal isn't to win the Super Bowl in 2023, you have the wrong goal. It's not pessimistic to expect a rookie TE to need 3 years, it's close to best case scenario.

Teams draft piles of tight ends every year, and there's only ever a handful of good ones in the league at any given time and there's been even less elite ones over the last 20+ years. Expecting Kincaid to be an all-star just because he was one of the top TE's this year is what every team hopes when they draft players like Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Hunter Henry, Maxx Williams, Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener and on and on.

Look at this list of people you barely remember and realize that trying to draft an elite TE is about as hard as drafting a franchise QB: http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

I don't think he's just a TE. He's a TE/slot/WR. He's not like other players. Maybe he'll flat out bust because he isn't good enough in any of those roles. I doubt it. His tape is very convincing.  

[JerseyBills]

We are much better,  especially on O. Upgraded at both Gs, Slot WR and outside with Hardy, who can spell Gabe and add a speed dimension to this O.

 

We got wayyy more versatile on O , we can attack teams in multiple personnel packages We didn't have the luxury of doing last year. We'll be way less predictable and after being the 2nd best O should easily be 1st, injuries aside.

 

On D, if Von and Tre get back to their all pro selves, another upgrade. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Based on the addition of a mid-tier guard and a 2nd round rookie? We've made only 1 change to our top 4 weapons of offense (Diggs-Davis-Knox-Singletary) to (Diggs-Davis-Knox-Cook). I could very reasonably see Kincaid slotting in as the number 5 contributor, but that isn't a mindblowing shift for me the way adding someone like Hopkins at #2 would have been.

Sadly, so do I. I keep hoping that I'm wrong about this stuff, but unfortunately here we are. Be sure to @me when we raise the banner for our 2023 Division championship.

What upgrades to the offense did the chiefs make from 2021 to 2022?

[Billl]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

No.  I don’t believe there a gap between the  bills and the team that we would’ve had beaten 3 times in a row in their own home stadium if if weren’t for us NOT kicking the ball short of the end zone with 13 seconds left in a playoff game where we had the lead.  One play….. and we beat your boys 3 times in a row….. in your home stadium.  
 

you got lucky that our coaching staff epically effed up one moment in time.  
 

injuries matter.  Wait til you have to play a playoff game without Chris Jones.  Actually, I don’t really have to wait.  I saw how your team performed in the Super Bowl after you lost Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz.  The unit that you thought was good enough to win a Super Bowl…. Wasn’t good enough.  It wasn’t good enough to even make it a game.  The chiefs got OBLITERATED by the Bucs.  Mahomes threw O TDs and 2 ints.  The chiefs didn’t score a TD.  
 

or you can be an ignorant f*** and pretend like injuries don’t matter.  
 

you can pretend that the chiefs are in a different tier, above  the Bills.  Reality says that you’ve had luck on your side.  It won’t last forever.  We’ll get ours.  17

 

I’ve already acknowledged that injuries matter.  Old players with injury histories are more likely to get injured again.  It’s why, after the Buccs Super Bowl, the Chiefs replaced all 5 starters on the OL.  They learned from the loss and now they’re champions again after not allowing a sack to the most dominant pass rushing team in the league.  In 2021, Buffalo torched the Chiefs secondary in the playoffs.  The Chiefs responded by adding 2 new Safeties and 3 new Corners.

 

The Bills haven’t done that after getting “OBLITERATED” by the Bengals in the divisional round.  Hyde, Poyer, Miller, and White are all being counted on heavily to have bounce-back years, and 3 of those guys will be 32 years or older next year.  They’re all really talented guys, but the odds of them getting hurt or simply wearing down again are substantial.  Buffalo had the oldest roster in the league last season, and they’re going to be older this year.  They’ve got 7 players expected to be starters who will be 30 or over.  Kansas City has 1.  Buffalo had 11 players over 30 start games last year.  The Chiefs had 2 (Carlos Dunlap started 2 games.)

 

I don’t have to pretend that the Chiefs are in a tier above the Bills.  The Chiefs have gone 11-3 in the postseason the past 5 seasons with two championships and are 2-0 against Buffalo during that span.  The Bills are a really good team, but they’re in the second tier with the Bengals, Eagles, and 49ers right now.  If you don’t believe me, check the Vegas odds.

 

Sorry you have such a problem with me saying that I think there is a gap in a thread asking whether or not the Bills have bridged said gap.  You’re free to disregard my posts rather than specifically messaging me asking me to elaborate.  Just because you don’t like my conclusions doesn’t mean that I’m being unreasonable.  

 

The Bengals and Chiefs are loaded with young talent.  The Bills are loaded with old talent.  That was true last year, and it’s going to be true this year.  Doesn’t mean the Bills can’t still win a championship, as they’re still among the favorites.  They are likely to experience injuries to key players, though.

[billsfan89]

The success of the 2023 season is going to come down to a few factors. 

 

1- Luck/Health - Winning in football is heavily dependent on health and luck. That's the case with every season. 

2- Impact from Kincaid and Cyrus/McGovern on changing the complexion of the offense. Will McGovern and Cyrus make a huge impact on the O-line play and what impact will Kincaid have on the receiving corps. 

3- Development of key younger players - on offense Spencer Brown, Davis and Shakir will be critical to the success of the offense. On defense, the development of Groot, Boogie, AJ, Elam and Benford will be instrumental to how the defense comes up.  

4- Return from injury by Von and Tre. Two key vets coming back from injuries the defense will need them. 

 

Those are the key components to the season. 

[GunnerBill]

I don't think there is a gap to bridge particularly. I think the NFL playoffs is about playing your best football at the right moment. Last year that wasn't the Bills. Not just because of Damar's situation but the injuries to key players all season long. Look at the best players on their roster - Josh had the elbow, Von did his ACL, Tre was not back to himself from his ACL. Their two safeties were 1st and 2nd team all pro the year before. Micah missed most of the year and Poyer played the last 2 months on a bum knee. Ed Oliver played the playoff games with more strapping than an Egyptian mummy and at the same time Jordan Phillips played defensive tackle with one arm.

 

Every team gets injuries, I get it. But the Bills made last year a kind of "all in" season and then had rotten injury luck. It sucks but it happens. That's life. 

 

In 2021 they were playing their best football in the playoffs. Unfortunately they blew the game at Kansas City at the end. Had they won that game I guarantee you there is no way the AFCCG of that year vs the Bengals looks like the playoff game last year did. Not guaranteeing we'd have won but it wouldn't have been a blowout that leaves people talking about a gap. 

 

The AFC is stacked. The road for the Bills this year is tough. They have a testing schedule, the division is the strongest it has ever been and there are emerging threats elsewhere. Baltimore have upgraded their offense, Pittsburgh (if Kenny Pickett can take a step) are better than they have been in 3 or 4 years. Maybe the Broncos improve under Sean Payton and the Jags should keep ascending. At the same time the two teams that have beaten us in the playoffs most recently - Kansas City and Cincinnati - both have question marks of their own. The Chiefs offensive tackle situation makes the combination of Dawkins and Brown look like the hogs. The Bengals defensive backfield is in a state of flux. 

 

It's going to be a really interesting season. At the start of 2020 season, the year the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the Championship game, I confidently said that I thought there were only three AFC teams who could make the Superbowl  - KC, Buffalo or Baltimore. In 2023 there are at least 6 who I think have a shot. And there are a couple more that wouldn't shock me.

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I know that this is a common theory, but in my opinion it ignores a mountain of evidence.

 

For example, the Bengals walked down the field and scored a TD, and were carving up chunks of yards again on their second drive before Hamlin went down.

 

The Dolphins gave us all we could handle the week before, and that was with a 3rd string QB (yes, I know the Dolphins offense did very little, but the game was still very tight). We lost to Zach Wilson and the Jets too.

 

I think it was more than an aberration.

 

The Dolphins did not "give us all we could handle." That is utter rubbish. The Bills had 423 yards at 5.9 yards per play in that game. The Dolphins had 231 yards at 3.3 yards per play. The only reason that wasn't a blow was the Bills making unforced errors on offense and special teams that gave the Dolphins short fields. The story of that game and the Bengals game is that the Bills simply were playing nowhere near their best football down the stretch last year. Maybe it was emotional exhaustion but I don't think so. I just think they had too many key players missing or playing hurt. 

[John from Riverside]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think there is a gap to bridge particularly. I think the NFL playoffs is about playing your best football at the right moment. Last year that wasn't the Bills. Not just because of Damar's situation but the injuries to key players all season long. Look at the best players on their roster - Josh had the elbow, Von did his ACL, Tre was not back to himself from his ACL. Their two safeties were 1st and 2nd team all pro the year before. Micah missed most of the year and Poyer played the last 2 months on a bum knee. Ed Oliver played the playoff games with more strapping than an Egyptian mummy and at the same time Jordan Phillips played defensive tackle with one arm.

 

Every team gets injuries, I get it. But the Bills made last year a kind of "all in" season and then had rotten injury luck. It sucks but it happens. That's life. 

 

In 2021 they were playing their best football in the playoffs. Unfortunately they blew the game at Kansas City at the end. Had they won that game I guarantee you there is no way the AFCCG of that year vs the Bengals looks like the playoff game last year did. Not guaranteeing we'd have won but it wouldn't have been a blowout that leaves people talking about a gap. 

 

The AFC is stacked. The road for the Bills this year is tough. They have a testing schedule, the division is the strongest it has ever been and there are emerging threats elsewhere. Baltimore have upgraded their offense, Pittsburgh (if Kenny Pickett can take a step) are better than they have been in 3 or 4 years. Maybe the Broncos improve under Sean Payton and the Jags should keep ascending. At the same time the two teams that have beaten us in the playoffs most recently - Kansas City and Cincinnati - both have question marks of their own. The Chiefs offensive tackle situation makes the combination of Dawkins and Brown look like the hogs. The Bengals defensive backfield is in a state of flux. 

 

It's going to be a really interesting season. At the start of 2020 season, the year the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the Championship game, I confidently said that I thought there were only three AFC teams who could make the Superbowl  - KC, Buffalo or Baltimore. In 2023 there are at least 6 who I think have a shot. And there are a couple more that wouldn't shock me.

I know that passing yards are sexy but I would really like to see a more balanced office through the course of the season. I want to be able to win games this year just grinding it out and demoralizing opponents not all the games not even most of the games, just having the ability to do it. 
 

When things were going badly for us in the playoffs, it would’ve been great if we could’ve just slowed Cincinnati down by keeping them off the field with long sustained scoring drives

 

I don’t even know if we would’ve won but I wanted to try I want to be able to beat teams in a number of ways so win the passing game is not clicking and inevitably there will always be times in a season when it’s not going to click do you have the ability to change gears and just win it ugly

 

I don’t wanna be run the ball dominant I just want to be able to do it whenever we want Osiris, Torrance, and being able to run to tighten sets will go a long way towards that

[Aussie Joe]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 I just think they had too many key players missing or playing hurt. 

And average ( at best) play calling … they got worked out and had no variation..

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

And average ( at best) play calling … they got worked out and had no variation..

 

Fair but I think it was a players loss first and foremost. They just played theirnworst game of the year. Flat. Lifeless. Josh looked like he was stoned. The playcalling wasn't great on either side but I think you could have had Bill Walsh and Bill Belichick as coordinators for that game and the Bills would still have lost handily. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

What upgrades to the offense did the chiefs make from 2021 to 2022?

Great question. The chiefs did change 3 out of their 4 top weapons between 2021 and 2022 including their Top RB and their top 2 WRs. More importantly though, they had less work that was required because their team was already championship caliber with the Best QB and the Best TE in the game having netted a SB Championship two years prior.

Their main deficiency was on defense where they added multiple new starters at linebacker, corner, and safety and saw the emergence of second year star linebacker Nick Bolton.

I hope that answers your question.

[SydneyBillsFan]

13 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think there was a “gap” when healthy.  I think the roster was right on par with both teams.  We just suffered major injuries. KC doesn’t win the SB without Chris Jones last year….just like we weren’t going to win the SB without Von Miller last year.  He changed our defense.  A true difference maker.  A closer.  Without him, we were working on borrowed time. The bengals OL was broken and KC had the healthy horses to make them pay.  We didn’t due to injury. 
 

We’ve upgraded this offseason.  I think the chiefs will be upgraded by off-seasons end.  I don’t think the bengals will be better, but more of the same great team.  They lost heart of their secondary but upgraded the OL, pass rush and corner.  The jags and chargers will be improved.  The jets and fins improved.  Same with the Ravens and Broncos.  
 

stay healthy.  The teams that do that will have the best chance imo.  Lots of luck involved in winning a title.  We’ll need some.

 

Don't forget we were also missing DaQuan Jones and Jordan Phillips - that made the Von omission to the front seven even worse. That's on top of Micah Hyde, Damar Hamlin and a battered Poyer.

 

Our defence really were the walking wounded last year.

[ganesh]

If you look at where our pain point was last time and if we have solve it, then the answer is NO.  The playoffs are NOT about outscoring your opponents with offense. That works against weak teams in the Wild card.  But when it comes to Divisional and Championship round, the defense has to be strong and control the line of scrimmage.  Chiefs and Bengals have that type of defense.  Unfortunately, the Bills did not improve that area in FA or the Draft. 

 

The Bills were weak in Defense (in spite of giving up less points) when it came to the playoffs.  The defense gave up 33 points to the Dolphins (with a 3rd string QB) and then 27 points to the Bengals.  Both games were at home. 

 

In the Bengals game, the defense was unable to stop the quick pass and the run game.  They were able to control the line of scrimmage.  The pass rush was sorely missing.

 

The pass rush was also missing against the Dolphins 3rd string QB.  

 

On the defensive side, the Bills will not have Von MIller for the 1st half of the season. I hope he is ready for the playoffs. 

 

Unless Epenesa, Basham and Rosseau can step up significantly, we will not be able to get to Mahomes, Burrow.  Heck, we will have difficulty with Jackson, Herbert and Watson. 

 

The Bills need a change in defensive philosophy and need strong play by Jones, Oliver and Settle along with the above DEs and Shaq Lawson to make a difference in the Playoffs. 

 

 

5 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

We were a top 5 offense with Morris and Sweeney.  I'm pretty sure Kincaid makes the offense better even if he doesn't put up Kyle PItts numbers.

But will that be enough to overcome the deficiency of our defense when comes to Divisional or Championship round?

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Great question. The chiefs did change 3 out of their 4 top weapons between 2021 and 2022 including their Top RB and their top 2 WRs. More importantly though, they had less work that was required because their team was already championship caliber with the Best QB and the Best TE in the game having netted a SB Championship two years prior.

Their main deficiency was on defense where they added multiple new starters at linebacker, corner, and safety and saw the emergence of second year star linebacker Nick Bolton.

I hope that answers your question.

Totally agree.  The drafted players on our defense MUST make a difference for us to win a SB.  That includes. Oliver, Rosseau, Basham, Epenesa, Elam, Bernard, Williams,   (all Day 1 or Day 2 picks).     The ROI on this group of people (minus Williams) have been below average to terrible.   That is the biggest reason for this team to be choking in the playoffs.

[newcam2012]

7 hours ago, Chaos said:

This is going to upset people, but here are the correct preseason AFC rankings

1. Chiefs

2. Bengals

3. Bills, Ravens

 

Not upset at all. It's realistic. The Bills have fallen short for several years of playoff appearances. The coveted prize hasn't been close. They haven't sniffed a Super Bowl. All they have is woulda, coulda, shoulda.

 

They are being hunted by Miami and NY Jets. Both teams appear to be closing the gap on the Bills. Perhaps even passing them. Still I have to give the Bills the edge until they get beat. However, I would not be surprised at all if one of the two teams beat the Bills for the division. That Jets D looks dominant. 

 

In my mind, there should be no real debate that KC is ahead of the Bills. Their Oline is elite, Mahomes is a generational QB, and Reid is an offensive genius. Forget about the roster comparasions. Those 3 things put the Chiefs on another level. 

 

Cinci has to be looked at as surpassing the Bills. Just watch the playoff game. Burrow is a technician and a surgeon. All he does is win and his WR core is likely the best in the NFL. Their D coordinator is likely the best in the league. 

 

I'd add in the Jags and LA Chargers to the list of up and comers; right there to beat Buffalo. However, LA reminds me a lot of Buffalo. They are very good on paper but find ways to lose big games and playoff games. I think a lot has to do with their coaching. Just can't get over the hump. Sounds familar?  Both fans bases look forward to next year with differing results. 

 

This year should really tell us if the Bills will remain a playoff team and a Super Bowl contender or pretender. These past two to three years were huge playoff disappointments.

 

As a fan, I'm so tired of falling short in the playoffs. I can envision and see the Bills hoisting the Lombardi. Then  I realize I'm just having a dream. I wake up only to nightmare like consecutive losses to KC and Cinci. That really leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. Somehow perhaps unrealistically I feel cheated. 

 

Dream on...

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by newcam2012