Have we bridged the playoff gap?

[SCBills]

20 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Earlier in the off-season you commented that simply bringing back the same guys on the defensive line - Phillips and Lawson wasn’t ideal, you wanted more talent.

 

Looking at it now, how do you feel about the defensive line? You reference all the available veteran talent on the FA market, but as Beane stated: they have to play for $2M or less.

 

He again referenced low money so I never understood how Hopkins was going to fit. Still don’t other than pie in the sky scenarios about the Cardinals eating 80% of his salary and adding 4 void years on the end of the deal. 

I don’t like our DL, tbh.  
 

I like Von, Rousseau and Jones.  That’s about it.  
 

Epenesa is fine as DE4.  
 

Settle is a JAG, Phillips can’t stay healthy… I absolutely despise spending 10M on Oliver - both financially and schematically, with him being undersized in front of our smaller linebackers.  
 

Lawson is a JAG and Basham has shown zero reason as to why he should be on this team.  
 

Beane references 2M but we’ll see what happens.  
 

Still … I’m glad we focused on Offense.  The DL is good enough to be a Top 10 unit when Von comes back and hopefully we see a more aggressive, risk-taking approach from McDermott.  
 

I’ll just have to hope I’m wrong about Oliver, because him pulling an Edmunds contract year would be massive for the Defense. 
 

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by SCBills

[NewEra]

32 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Personally,  I think people are putting too much emphasis on wr/te group. We we the #2 scoring team last year. Other than the Cincy PO game, our issue wasn't scoring points, it was preventing the other team from scoring. JMO.

We were the #2 scoring defense in the league….. how is that different than being the #2 scoring offense?  
 

we had multiple huge injuries on D all season.  We had no injuries on offense.  
 

thoughts?

[Maine-iac]

The offense is loaded but I don't think our offense was the limiting factor at any point the last two years.  They fell on their faces a little in the Bengals game but the defense wasn't making any stops to get them the ball back which leads to I think the big question.   Can we stop the run and effect the QB?  Injuries I think effected both our pass rush and our coverage ability so we might (barring injuries again) have that fixed just with people being healthy.  The large question I have is can we stop the run?  The Bengals ran the ball at will which might also be a product of injuries (Jones being hurt) but it's something that has happened several times a season (sometimes more).  Will the players we have (with McDermott's coaching) be able to stop the run.  The Pats and the Jets will probably still come out running against us.

[Bermuda Triangle]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We were the #2 scoring defense in the league….. how is that different than being the #2 scoring offense?  
 

we had multiple huge injuries on D all season.  We had no injuries on offense.  
 

thoughts?

Allen didn't miss any time, but he was certainly injured.

[BuffaloRebound]

Sometimes you just get lucky and the guys you need fall into your lap.  I’d say that was kinda the case with Kincaid and definitely the case with Torrence.  We haven’t had that kind of draft luck probably since Josh.  Look at the Jets last year and all the guys that fell into their lap.  Then look at this year with Steelers moving up and stealing their left tackle.  With 31 other teams going after the same guys, there’s definitely luck involved.  I’m not sure we could’ve had a better first 2 rounds considering where we were picking.  

[LyndonvilleBill]

11 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Defense was still very good in almost every category last year as well. They slipped a bit in yardage but most metrics stayed remarkably consistent. The pass rush disappeared after Millers injury, though. The offense was still good, but not nearly as reliable down the stretch. Josh’s injury, Dorsey’s rookie struggles and OL were all concerns as well. Just seemed too reliant on Josh being Superman regularly to make things happen. Have to admit I get a bit jealous watching Mahomes toss the ball to wide open WRs most of the time ,with some of his patented plays thrown in here and there. That’s probably influenced my opinion on the Bills WR corps, though a lot of it is likely just superior play design by Andy Reid. 

The D was good. But so was the O. I don't think there is currently a gap of any consequence between KC, Cincy and the Bills. As to the subject of this thread, I think each team has improved in their own way, but the improvements for us on the OL will have a bigger impact than a new wr or te. I don't think we are going to score considerably more than we did last year. So, imo, finding a way to prevent the other team from scoring 30 points will be key.

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Allen didn't miss any time, but he was certainly injured.

It’s honestly insane that he didn’t miss any time. 
 

He played with a major injury.   That wasn’t minor. 

[GoBills808]

52 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

If the above doesn’t make my point I don’t know what would. It’s all Miller. 

If that's the case we are in trouble

 

I'm not counting on Miller coming back at 100%

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We were the #2 scoring defense in the league….. how is that different than being the #2 scoring offense?  
 

we had multiple huge injuries on D all season.  We had no injuries on offense.  
 

thoughts?

I concur. The defense is probably good enough. The Super Bowl showed us it doesn’t matter much if you’re the #1 defense anyway ( dubious late penalty flag and all ) You’re not shutting down the best offenses in todays game and need to match score for score. Then it likely comes down to having the ball last - which is where the SB was heading before “ the call” . Even with the Bills favorite status going into last season, most everyone thought it was theirs to win IF they stayed healthy. As you pointed out , that didn’t happen. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Allen didn't miss any time, but he was certainly injured.

Absolutely 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I concur. The defense is probably good enough. The Super Bowl showed us it doesn’t matter much if you’re the #1 defense anyway ( dubious late penalty flag and all ) You’re not shutting down the best offenses in todays game and need to match score for score. Then it likely comes down to having the ball last - which is where the SB was heading before “ the call” . Even with the Bills favorite status going into last season, most everyone thought it was theirs to win IF they stayed healthy. As you pointed out , that didn’t happen. 

If we are talking strictly about the playoffs the defense is not close to good enough

[1ManRaid]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

1) Defensive philosophy in the post-season needed to change.  Frazier out / McDermott in. 
 

2) Team needs more “dawg” in them.  Watching them last year, it felt like the only dawgs we had were Josh, Diggs and Milano.   Torrence and Williams are two draft picks, one on each side of the ball, that play with bad intentions.

 

3) Bills OL was a disaster down the stretch.  Now.. Year 2 of Kromer, full off-season for Brown, upgrade in McGovern and a massive upgrade in Torrence.  
 

4) Bills needed an answer other than Diggs and “chuck it down the field”.  They drafted the most dominant middle of the field option in the draft .. and the only guy in recent memory to get the Kelce comp.  
 

Id say we could still use an upgrade at WR2.  That could be a trade or simply Davis improving.  We also need bigger/better bodies on the DL.  Von coming back is obviously a complete game changer.  It sounds like Beane is going to bring in a DT soon.  Hopefully it’s a big body 1T, because we need someone besides Jones to keep OL off our slimmer/faster linebackers.  

 

Davis is going to have his breakout year with Kincaid drawing attention down the middle and hopefully more trust from Dorsey.  If our O-line additions pay off, Knox can have his breakout year too in 2 TE sets not having to stay in the block all the time.

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If that's the case we are in trouble

 

I'm not counting on Miller coming back at 100%

We have some nice young/prime pieces in Rousseau, Elam, Johnson and Milano, but the Defense is likely going to be determined by elite talent coming off major injuries (Von, White, Hyde) and guys playing for a second contract (Oliver & Epenesa). 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If we are talking strictly about the playoffs the defense is not close to good enough

Which defense?  The one with Von Miller, Micah Hyde and Daquan?  Injured Phillips, Ed and Poyer. M   Or the one with epenesa, Marlowe and Settle?

 

Coaching and injuries were major components in the meltdown vs Cinci. The defense did pretty well in KC holding them to 3 points in their final 3 possessions.  We were outmanned and out game planned vs Cinci imo.

 

the O scored 10 points while being healthy (minus Joshs arm).  

Edited April 30, 2023 by NewEra

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If we are talking strictly about the playoffs the defense is not close to good enough

I’d put their past performance mostly on strategy/ coaching than personnel. Last year had injuries in that mix too. Elite offense is the name of the game in todays playoffs; probably more than ever imo. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Chiefs lost Frank Clark, Thornhill and Wylie this off-season. Chris Jones is also headed into the final season of his contract, so they’ll either have to re-sign him to a gigantic deal next year or franchise him.

 

Cinci may be the new team to beat going forward, but having Mahomes always gives the Chiefs a chance.

 

Until they have to pony up to make Burrow the highest paid player in NFL history and lose Higgins, Boyd and Mixon. Offense gonna look a lot different then.

[Pbomb]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

I know that this is a common theory, but in my opinion it ignores a mountain of evidence.

 

For example, the Bengals walked down the field and scored a TD, and were carving up chunks of yards again on their second drive before Hamlin went down.

 

The Dolphins gave us all we could handle the week before, and that was with a 3rd string QB (yes, I know the Dolphins offense did very little, but the game was still very tight). We lost to Zach Wilson and the Jets too.

 

I think it was more than an aberration.

You could do that with every team though. The bengals were a lucky fumble away from losing to Huntley and the ravens. The chiefs almost lost games to the titans with a qb who can’t even throw the ball and also the Texans.

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

The Bills have been regular-season-good for many seasons now. But we haven’t been able to break through in the playoffs.

 

We got blown out by the Bengals in the playoffs by 17 points. Some argue that we were simply out of mental steam due to the Hamlin situation. However, we also did not look good in the limited action we saw of the first Bengals matchup (pre-Hamlin injury). The Bengals walked down the field and scored a TD, and they were walking down the field again when the injury occurred. 

 

I think we can all admit that despite our record, the second half of last season wasn’t very comfortable. We lost to the Zach Wilson led Jets. We lost to the Vikings. We barely squeaked by the Dolphins at home. We needed a heroic last second throw and catch by Allen and Diggs to beat the Lions.

 

So here is my question - Is what we’ve done this off-season been enough to bridge the gap between the Bills and Bengals/Playoff Chiefs (playoff Chiefs are different than regular season Chiefs)?

 

Added:

 

Dalton Kincaid (love this)

O’Cyrus Torrence (love this)

Connor McGovern

Taylor Rapp

Deonte Harty

Trent Sherfield

Damien Harris

Micah Hyde comes back

 

Lost:

 

Tremaine Edmunds

Isaiaah McKenzie

Roger Saffold (addition by subtraction)

Jake Kumerow 

Cole Beasley

Jamison Crowder

Devin Singletary

 

I think we did get better. Kincaid brings something to this offense we have literally never had before. Ever. 

 

We re-tooled 40% of our o-line with McGovern and Torrence, and removing Saffold is addition by subtraction by itself. I don’t have much faith in Harty and Sherfield, but I refuse to believe they’ll give us any less than Crowder and McKenzie did last season.

What’s your thoughts? 

 

I agree that when you tally who we added and lost, we're better.   IMHO, we're worse at LB but we're better at WR, RB, and OL.

 

But beside looking at the additions and subtractions, we also have to look at which players will get better this year and which will get worse.  Improvement and regression are factors every season but are terribly hard to predict.  Will Poyer and Hyde be worse due to age?  While Brown or Davis get better?  Hard to know.

 

The other wildcard, of course, is injuries.  We're screwed if Allen suffers a season-ending injury.  If Miller, White, Poyer, and Hyde all get/stay healthy and play at peak form, our D will have a very good year.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Which defense?  The one with Von Miller, Micah Hyde and Daquan?  Injured Phillips, Ed and Poyer. M   Or the one with epenesa, Marlowe and Settle?

 

Coaching and injuries were major components in the meltdown vs Cinci. The defense did pretty well in KC holding them to 3 points in their final 3 possessions.  We were outmanned and out game planned vs Cinci imo.

 

the O scored 10 points while being healthy (minus Joshs arm).  

Since Allen has been QB the offense has averaged 26.75 points/game in the playoffs. For reference that would be good for 6th best in the league last regular season in PPG, and borderline top5 in any given year

 

In that same timeframe the defense has averaged 25.5 points against.  That would rank 30th

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

The Bills have been regular-season-good for many seasons now. But we haven’t been able to break through in the playoffs.

 

We got blown out by the Bengals in the playoffs by 17 points. Some argue that we were simply out of mental steam due to the Hamlin situation. However, we also did not look good in the limited action we saw of the first Bengals matchup (pre-Hamlin injury). The Bengals walked down the field and scored a TD, and they were walking down the field again when the injury occurred. 

 

I think we can all admit that despite our record, the second half of last season wasn’t very comfortable. We lost to the Zach Wilson led Jets. We lost to the Vikings. We barely squeaked by the Dolphins at home. We needed a heroic last second throw and catch by Allen and Diggs to beat the Lions.

 

So here is my question - Is what we’ve done this off-season been enough to bridge the gap between the Bills and Bengals/Playoff Chiefs (playoff Chiefs are different than regular season Chiefs)?

 

Added:

 

Dalton Kincaid (love this)

O’Cyrus Torrence (love this)

Connor McGovern

Taylor Rapp

Deonte Harty

Trent Sherfield

Damien Harris

Micah Hyde comes back

 

Lost:

 

Tremaine Edmunds

Isaiaah McKenzie

Roger Saffold (addition by subtraction)

Jake Kumerow 

Cole Beasley

Jamison Crowder

Devin Singletary

 

I think we did get better. Kincaid brings something to this offense we have literally never had before. Ever. 

 

We re-tooled 40% of our o-line with McGovern and Torrence, and removing Saffold is addition by subtraction by itself. I don’t have much faith in Harty and Sherfield, but I refuse to believe they’ll give us any less than Crowder and McKenzie did last season.

What’s your thoughts? 

Von is also coming back.