Have we bridged the playoff gap?

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

Chiefs lost Frank Clark, Thornhill and Wylie this off-season. Chris Jones is also headed into the final season of his contract, so they’ll either have to re-sign him to a gigantic deal next year or franchise him.

 

Cinci may be the new team to beat going forward, but having Mahomes always gives the Chiefs a chance.

Cinci’s elite players are on rookie contracts. “Going forward” they have a lot of work to do to keep their level of talent.  Just like us. Burrow, chase and Higgins count under 24M against the cap this year. In 2 years, they’ll be making over 100M between the 3.  Maybe 110-120M.  

[NoSaint]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Cinci walked down on a D filled with injured players and backups along the DL and secondary.  They had a better game plan that day.  True that the Cinci OL was banged up- but with no one to take advantage of them, the advantage was NIL,  KC was healthy and had the talent to take advantage and did 
 

the chiefs didn’t walk down the field on us IN KC in the 4th quarter.  Their 4th quarter possessions ended as such:  

- Von Miller tackle on Mahomes forced a fg. 

- Von Miller sack- punt

- Von Miller hurry- interception.  
 

so what gap is there to close with KC?  We beat them in KC without Hyde and Tre.  They stayed healthy.  We were decimated.
 

Health and coaching game plans-  the roster is fine. And now we have Dalton Kincaid 🤣 

If the above doesn’t make my point I don’t know what would. It’s all Miller. 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Chiefs lost Frank Clark, Thornhill and Wylie this off-season. Chris Jones is also headed into the final season of his contract, so they’ll either have to re-sign him to a gigantic deal next year or franchise him.

 

Cinci may be the new team to beat going forward, but having Mahomes always gives the Chiefs a chance.

And Andy Reid is 65 and isn’t exactly in good health

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

If the above doesn’t make my point I don’t know what would. It’s all Miller. 

But people are stupid. 

[Franco_92]

Minor quibble with OP. "Barely squeaking by" the Dolphins in that home game to basically lock the division was not a bad thing. The dolphins are good and threw everything they had at us. That game was awesome and an outlier to the crummier wins to end the season (if there is such a thing as a crummy win)

Edited April 30, 2023 by arcane

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

honestly, I think much of the above is pretty limited in moving the needle. 
 

the guy is Miller, and the question is that knee. We brought him in to close out big games and our season likely goes as his recovery goes (barring other significant injury issues cropping up)

 

Not saying you’re wrong but I reallyyyy hope our season doesn’t rely on a 34 year olds knee recovering to perfection.

[Boatdrinks]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We added Kincaid.  It doesn’t matter if that weapon is WR2 or slot imo.  As long as we have a reliable target in the middle of the field, we’ll be fine.  Maybe I’m biased as Kincaid was my #1 target in the draft, but I think we have something much more than a reliable target in the middle of the field now.  Just keep him healthy. 

I like the addition of Kincaid, and the middle of the field was a huge problem for most of last season on offense. Still, I’d like to see another quality vet WR ;  not certain how much we can rely on a rookie TE being the difference. I’d be more confident if Beane can bring a WR but I can see your point here. 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, arcane said:

Minor quibble with OP. "Barely squeaking by" the Dolphins in that home game to basically lock the division was not a bad thing. The dolphins are good and threw everything they had at us. That game was awesome and an outlier to the crummier wins to end the season (if there is such a thing as a crummy win)

 

Sorry for the confusion. I was talking about the playoff game where they started a 3rd string QB and we won by only 3 points.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

The Bills have been regular-season-good for many seasons now. But we haven’t been able to break through in the playoffs.

 

We got blown out by the Bengals in the playoffs by 17 points. Some argue that we were simply out of mental steam due to the Hamlin situation. However, we also did not look good in the limited action we saw of the first Bengals matchup (pre-Hamlin injury). The Bengals walked down the field and scored a TD, and they were walking down the field again when the injury occurred. 

 

I think we can all admit that despite our record, the second half of last season wasn’t very comfortable. We lost to the Zach Wilson led Jets. We lost to the Vikings. We barely squeaked by the Dolphins at home. We needed a heroic last second throw and catch by Allen and Diggs to beat the Lions.

 

So here is my question - Is what we’ve done this off-season been enough to bridge the gap between the Bills and Bengals/Playoff Chiefs (playoff Chiefs are different than regular season Chiefs)?

 

Added:

 

Dalton Kincaid (love this)

O’Cyrus Torrence (love this)

Connor McGovern

Taylor Rapp

Deonte Harty

Trent Sherfield

Damien Harris

Micah Hyde comes back

 

Lost:

 

Tremaine Edmunds

Isaiaah McKenzie

Roger Saffold (addition by subtraction)

Jake Kumerow 

Cole Beasley

Jamison Crowder

Devin Singletary

 

I think we did get better. Kincaid brings something to this offense we have literally never had before. Ever. 

 

We re-tooled 40% of our o-line with McGovern and Torrence, and removing Saffold is addition by subtraction by itself. I don’t have much faith in Harty and Sherfield, but I refuse to believe they’ll give us any less than Crowder and McKenzie did last season.

What’s your thoughts? 

I mean we aren’t going one & done in the playoffs every year so I don’t think they are just “regular season” good. We just weren’t a championship caliber team. Buffalo lacked the fire power of teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bengals. Nabbing the best TE in the draft was monumental in fixing that. I just have a very good feeling about this draft. I can’t explain it

[78thealltimegreat]

A big factor in all this was Josh Allen was hurt much worse than he let on. Heck Brock Purdy had 1 grade above what Josh had and he might not play till 2024 now. The first half of the season he was the best player in the league after the Jets game he was really good but had a few flaws. 
I won’t let one bad game cloud the fact that this team is as good as anyone in football and can beat anyone.

They lost 1 guy on defense and a guy most people wanted out of here anyway and they definitely upgraded the offense. 
So whatever gap there was is definitely bridged. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I like the addition of Kincaid, and the middle of the field was a huge problem for most of last season on offense. Still, I’d like to see another quality vet WR ;  not certain how much we can rely on a rookie TE being the difference. I’d be more confident if Beane can bring a WR but I can see your point here. 

Personally,  I think people are putting too much emphasis on wr/te group. We we the #2 scoring team last year. Other than the Cincy PO game, our issue wasn't scoring points, it was preventing the other team from scoring. JMO.

[jahnyc]

I think Beane did a good job in free agency with very significant salary cap constraints.  Losing Edmunds will hurt with no obvious long-term replacement.  While I do understand that our interior o-line play last season was a weakness, I do find it odd that we devoted significant (and, again, limited) resources to the guard position in free agency and then in the draft.  Unless one of Bates, Edwards or McGovern is traded, there is potential for two of these three to be back-ups at guard this season, which is a luxury I am not sure was the best use of our limited resources.

 

Overall, I think we are about in the same spot as last year in terms of our roster with some upgrades and some losses.  The real questions will be whether the Jets make a jump because of Rogers and whether the Dolphins free agent acquisitions and hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator will propel them to the division title over the Bills this season.

[DaggersEOD]

Honestly, the big drop off in both Gabe’s performance and the performance of the O overall was the inability for us to execute the over/under combo route that Beas/Davis killed teams with. 
 

It was nearly unstoppable. So much so that IMO, we overused it in 2020 (Beas ends up w/a broken leg, team obviously worn out)

 

In 2021, we tried to save it for the playoffs and only broken it out when needed (you could always tell because the drive would start w/a pass to Beas…almost always resulted in a scoring drive). That season resulted in the 13 second game but also Gabe’s elite performance. 
 

2022, we tried to live without it, eventually bringing a broken down Beas at the end of the season, without much success 

 

Now if Kincade is capable of executing the over/under combo route effectively w/Gabe, I think we may be in for a wild ride. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The gap such that it existed was about coaching and injuries.  We don't have a SB trophy because of coaching.

 

McD is now the DC. Dorsey has a year of experience.  Should be better but as you know I'm a McD skeptic.

 

Injuries can't possibly be as bad as last year.  White should be better. Miller should be back at some point.  And the safeties should be better even if one of the gets hurt again.  I think the OL will be better which will be important but only to the extent that Dorsey gets better.  The offense was excellent when Saffold played ok for the first few weeks and Allen was taking what the defense gave them.  Something changed in that Green Bay second half and they never recovered. 

 

I think we are worse at MLB but I was an Edmunds skeptic all along and I'm not backpedaling now.  Edmunds made a few plays here and even if he did affect the passing game I doubt it was by that much.  The problem is Bernard is just awful.  But I'm sticking with my theory it just doesn't matter much on defense. It didn't matter in the SB. 

 

It's still all on Allen.  He has to will this team to victory in the playoffs.  I think he was mentally shot by the Cinci game. Elbow, running for his life, face of the franchise with the Hamlin thing all caught up to him.  If they make his life easier this year and he doesn't put the ball in harms way 3 less time, the Bills will win the division by 2 games and host another playoff game.   Hopefully the rest of the AFC West can play better and give us a shot at home field.  

[Ya Digg?]

43 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I was talking about the game that happened literally the week before the Bengals game. Not a Week 4 regular season game like the Chiefs and Colts.

 

The Dolphins, with their 3rd string QB, took the Bills down to the final seconds in the playoffs, and we were at home! Dolphins we’re around midfield, down only 3, and having put 31 points on the board, with a couple minutes left in the game.

 

That was just a week before the Bengals blasted us.

 

If the Bengals game was an aberration, what was the Dolphins game just a week prior?

It was a win. Didn’t matter if it was by 3 or 30, it was a win. You mention close Bills games, but fail to mention the several close Chiefs and Bengals games at the end of last season. I get what you’re trying to say (I think) but you have left out important details. Everyone wanted to see them play better at the end of the season, but it didn’t happen. As several have said, I don’t think the gap (if there even is one) is as big as you think it is

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

1) Defensive philosophy in the post-season needed to change.  Frazier out / McDermott in. 
 

2) Team needs more “dawg” in them.  Watching them last year, it felt like the only dawgs we had were Josh, Diggs and Milano.   Torrence and Williams are two draft picks, one on each side of the ball, that play with bad intentions.

 

3) Bills OL was a disaster down the stretch.  Now.. Year 2 of Kromer, full off-season for Brown, upgrade in McGovern and a massive upgrade in Torrence.  
 

4) Bills needed an answer other than Diggs and “chuck it down the field”.  They drafted the most dominant middle of the field option in the draft .. and the only guy in recent memory to get the Kelce comp.  
 

Id say we could still use an upgrade at WR2.  That could be a trade or simply Davis improving.  We also need bigger/better bodies on the DL.  Von coming back is obviously a complete game changer.  It sounds like Beane is going to bring in a DT soon.  Hopefully it’s a big body 1T, because we need someone besides Jones to keep OL off our slimmer/faster linebackers.  

Earlier in the off-season you commented that simply bringing back the same guys on the defensive line - Phillips and Lawson wasn’t ideal, you wanted more talent.

 

Looking at it now, how do you feel about the defensive line? You reference all the available veteran talent on the FA market, but as Beane stated: they have to play for $2M or less.

 

He again referenced low money so I never understood how Hopkins was going to fit. Still don’t other than pie in the sky scenarios about the Cardinals eating 80% of his salary and adding 4 void years on the end of the deal. 

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I like the addition of Kincaid, and the middle of the field was a huge problem for most of last season on offense. Still, I’d like to see another quality vet WR ;  not certain how much we can rely on a rookie TE being the difference. I’d be more confident if Beane can bring a WR but I can see your point here. 

I hear ya.  Don’t get me wrong, I’d love another WR2, I just don’t think it’ll happen.  

Diggs

Davis

Shakir

Harty

Sherfield

Shorter

 

With kincaid taking much of the slot reps.  
 

I can see us adding along the DL, OT and possibly a LB. 

[Boatdrinks]

23 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Personally,  I think people are putting too much emphasis on wr/te group. We we the #2 scoring team last year. Other than the Cincy PO game, our issue wasn't scoring points, it was preventing the other team from scoring. JMO.

Defense was still very good in almost every category last year as well. They slipped a bit in yardage but most metrics stayed remarkably consistent. The pass rush disappeared after Millers injury, though. The offense was still good, but not nearly as reliable down the stretch. Josh’s injury, Dorsey’s rookie struggles and OL were all concerns too. Just seemed too reliant on Josh being Superman regularly to make things happen. Have to admit I get a bit jealous watching Mahomes toss the ball to wide open WRs most of the time ,with some of his patented plays thrown in here and there. That’s probably influenced my opinion on the Bills WR corps, though a lot of it is likely just superior play design by Andy Reid. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by Boatdrinks

[Rockinon]

58 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

McD seemed to indicate he would be more aggressive in some situations.

 

The scheme is the same but we don't know about the philosophy yet. A more aggressive philosophy in key situations could make the scheme look different due to differing results.

 

We won't know that until mid season at least.

 

They lost a total of 3 games in the regular season by 8 points. Not sure what you are trying to get at. Seems like a very very weak argument and more like grasping at straws, IMO.

 

You could make that argument with any team really...the Chiefs lost to the Colts for God Sakes.

I've been pondering what the game plan will look like going forward. It seems more blitzes may be called. Not sure, but it also seems we may be moving to fewer of the base nickel. Maybe put 3 LBs on the field more frequently. They've got something in mind. Just not sure what it is yet.

 

Offense is changing too. It is clear the coaches want to dominate the line of scrimmage. They also want bigger targets to throw to. A more physical running back. The offense is going to have a more physical look than we are used to, from top to bottom.

[Bermuda Triangle]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

1) Defensive philosophy in the post-season needed to change.  Frazier out / McDermott in. 
 

2) Team needs more “dawg” in them.  Watching them last year, it felt like the only dawgs we had were Josh, Diggs and Milano.   Torrence and Williams are two draft picks, one on each side of the ball, that play with bad intentions.

 

3) Bills OL was a disaster down the stretch.  Now.. Year 2 of Kromer, full off-season for Brown, upgrade in McGovern and a massive upgrade in Torrence.  
 

4) Bills needed an answer other than Diggs and “chuck it down the field”.  They drafted the most dominant middle of the field option in the draft .. and the only guy in recent memory to get the Kelce comp.  
 

Id say we could still use an upgrade at WR2.  That could be a trade or simply Davis improving.  We also need bigger/better bodies on the DL.  Von coming back is obviously a complete game changer.  It sounds like Beane is going to bring in a DT soon.  Hopefully it’s a big body 1T, because we need someone besides Jones to keep OL off our slimmer/faster linebackers.  

1. I think that this is a massive "win" for the Bills.  It's became fairly obvious that the defensive MO of "the opposing QB will make a mistake eventually" will not work in multiple, consecutive games in the post-season, when, in general (Skyler Thompson aside), you're playing against very good/elite QBs.

2. Agreed on lack of a "dawg" factor.  I think Poyer has it at times, but he was a shell of himself for much of last season.  Hopefully, he's at full strength this season.

3.  I'm not sure that Brown will ever be what the Bills' FO wants him to, or thinks he will, be.  No excuses for him this year.

4. I don't know how much of this is scheme, and how much is Allen.  Look at how quickly Allen got rid of the ball against LAR on opening night, and compare that to his play against the Steeler (pre- elbow injury) just a few weeks later.  There have been games where it appears that the short passing game was emphasized (e.g. @ NE in '21, WCG a few weeks later), but that emphasis has to be long-term, IMO.  I do think Kincaid will help in this regard, but Cook & Hines need to be utilized more in the pass game.

 

I did like that Beane publicly admitted that he was looking to add a DT in the draft.  Clearly, he feels that it's a position that need to be improved.

[Motor26]

Only complaint I have about this off season was not getting a tackle to at least push Brown, he was straight up terrible in pass protection last year. Kincaid will basically be deployed as a slot receiver so huge upgrade to the offense there. Defense will probably be more of the same. It's all going to come down to Josh and the offense.