Bills won the draft. Change my mind

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Lions got 4 starters right of the gate and correctly moved off DeAndre Swift who was always hurt.

 

Gibbs becomes what Swift was supposed to be.

 

Day one starter at MLB

 

Day one starter at TE (and you could argue who was better LaPorta or Mayer).

 

Day one starter and best Safety in the class

 

Upside developmental QB in Hooker

 

 

I liked LaPorta a lot.   I thought he was TE3 with a higher upside than TE2(Mayer).   Otherwise........just a lot of poor positional drafting.    Generally speaking your 1st round picks should be $20M-$30M aav type players when they eventually hit UFA.   Only about 50% of first rounders play well enough to get their option picked up but almost NONE of the RB's do.   The Lions have long term needs at a lot of premium positions.   They failed to take advantage of a huge opportunity with the extra picks in this draft, IMO.   They took the "you can't go broke making a profit" approach and that doesn't yield difference makers.    

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I liked LaPorta a lot.   I thought he was TE3 with a higher upside than TE2(Mayer).   Otherwise........just a lot of poor positional drafting.    Generally speaking your 1st round picks should be $20M-$30M aav type players when they eventually hit UFA.   Only about 50% of first rounders play well enough to get their option picked up but almost NONE of the RB's do.   The Lions have long term needs at a lot of premium positions.   They failed to take advantage of a huge opportunity with the extra picks in this draft, IMO.   They took the "you can't go broke making a profit" approach and that doesn't yield difference makers.    

So trade down and take?

 

Or package up 6 and 18 and draft who at 3-4?

 

The Patriots altered their franchise by trading down a couple of slots and getting Gonzalez?

 

Or the Jags who got an extra 4th and picked up the last of the highly rated tackles? 
 

Do you wanted more of the Texas Tech DE at #6 and the best corner remaining at #18 or JSN?

[QLBillsFan]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Eagles got 2 pro bowl type players in round 1 alone. This list is a joke

Correct on paper. Unless Cater continues to be… well Carter. If he can get his act together the Eagles destroyed this draft. His potential to be a disaster is 50/50. But when you have the most talent in the NFC and top 3 in nfl it’s smart.

[ChevyVanMiller]

5 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think the Bills punted on the draft starting with the Dorian Williams pick in the 3rd.

 

The concept of value just went out the window.

 

Honestly after Torrence they should have just traded all the rest of their picks for next years Draft. 
 

If Kincaid turns out to be a HOFer the class is good, but otherwise I think they got next to nothing.

 

Browns had a good draft, I still like what the Lions did, Steelers of course had a nice draft. 

 

Bengals not getting any of the elite TEs, WRs or OTs made me happy. 

Are you the Canadian influencer that announced the Williams pick?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Not sure that's really fair between Edmunds and Milano though.  MIlano only came to be top-end the past two years, at the age of 27/28, and in his 5th & 6th seasons.  Edmunds came on too in his 5th this past season, but at the age of 24.  He's barely into his prime.  That's the problem with drafting players that are 20.  He was the youngest player in the league in his rookie season.  

 

I think we'll see a much better Edmunds in Chicago this season.  IMO they should have found a way to keep him, particularly since they just drafted over Knox whom they just extended at high cost.  I'm actually wondering if Beane is going to try to trade Knox now.  

 

 

Unfortunately those reasons have rarely panned out the way he intended.  

 

 

 

It took both Milano and Edmunds four seasons to develop.  Beane doesn't have four seasons to wait, especially if Kincaid doesn't turn into an immediate impact player.  

 

 

Edmunds days of big improvement are behind him. He hasn't learned to hit, and I don't expect he will.  

 

The advantage the Bills have at linebacker is that a rookie there now is surrounded by good vets on all sides.  Much easier to get production out of a rookie in that situation. 

 

I still have my doubts, but it isn't crazy.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So trade down and take?

 

Or package up 6 and 18 and draft who at 3-4?

 

The Patriots altered their franchise by trading down a couple of slots and getting Gonzalez?

 

Or the Jags who got an extra 4th and picked up the last of the highly rated tackles? 
 

Do you wanted more of the Texas Tech DE at #6 and the best corner remaining at #18 or JSN?

 

It's simple really........use the early portion of the draft to address premium positions.    Edge/island players are the individuals who have the opportunity to change games by themselves by virtue of their positions.   That is why they are the most expensive of players to acquire.  

 

The Lions had numerous ways to do so in round 1 and did so with neither pick.

 

Now they have Jared Goff as their long term QB solution.........a hole opposite Hutchinson at DE.........and holes at CB.    And that is NOW.   You should be addressing premium positions even when you don't have current needs there.   

 

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I guess I'm saying IF Bates is in the plans to play Center (in any capacity other than backup) it would behoove the team to get him more

snaps at the position.  He has played a lot less games/snaps at the position than fans think.

I agree. No substitute for playing, but the closest thing to starting is studying the backup spot for 3 or 4 years in the same offense, and starting some at guard.  Whether he has the talent is the question.  

Edited April 30, 2023 by Shaw66

[Eastport bills]

33 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

You’re not allowed to say that Eastport.

 

The answer is Dorian Williams was highly sought after, as was Bernard and Dodson will be a revelation at MLB.

 

Beane hears the MLB chatter, he acknowledged in his press conference. 
 

They don’t always get it right though- see Hines on November 1st, and Hines now. 11 offensive touches after the trade, when Beane was at the podium saying he’s a weapon - slot, out of the backfield, etc. None of that happened. 
 

The Bills are a great team, so they get the benefit of the doubt. 

Thanks for straightening that out. I’ll try to limit the frivolous  negativity.

[1ManRaid]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I get what you are saying as value is important. However I believe the concept of value and importance of it is somewhat overblown by fans and pundits. 

 

Sometimes it just boils down to taking a better player that can help your team and fits what you do over value. 

 

After absolutely stealing BPA value in the first two rounds to land a pair of day 1 starters, we had the luxury of "reaching" for need in the 3rd for someone who fit the scheme.  Not having a 4th if anything gave them incentive to just go get who they wanted to fill a hole.  Anything after that is gravy and we did well with our 7th rounders anyways.

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Mahomes and Brady didn’t benefit from Kelce and Gronkowski? 

 

Kelce and Gronk were both guys' #1 target, even Ertz in Philly.  

 

Are we assuming the Bills are going to shift their philosophy on offense?  That's the only way you can draw these parallels.  

[BigAl2526]

Everyone who rates the drafts of NFL teams is going to come up with ratings that are different from anybody else. I saw one rating that had Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at the top and other that said Houston had the best draft.  I think there are plenty of questions about the Bills' draft.  Will the Bills utilize Kincaid enough too justify using a first for him?  Will the Bills alter their blocking scheme to fit the skill set of Torrence or can Torrence be a pleasant surprise if Buffalo tries doing some zone blocking?  How can Dorian Williams make a contribution other than a major injury to Matt Milano?  Can any of the bottom three picks not only make the team but get reps at the position for which they have a label?  It's probably a given that Shorter is going to play special teams.  I'm sure the Bills hope he can be outstanding in that role, but if he's going to have a more complete career, he's got to get on the field as a receiver and catch some passes.  My guess is Broeker is a practice squad guy at best this season.  That's not really shocking for a seventh round pick.  He's the draft pick with the least likelihood of making a contribution.  

 

As with any NFL team, if the best case scenario for each draftee works out, then this is a terrific draft.  So, we'll  see.

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by BigAl2526

[Simon Says]

7 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Hard to win the draft with only 5 picks.

 

They traded down and added a 6th.  Plus two more in 2024

[VW82]

This notion that we "reached" on Williams or didn't get value from our 3rd is BS. Go find me the guy who was going to give us tremendous value in that spot. Williams was picked about where he was slated to get picked. 

 

Williams probably isn't going to start year one. There were no MLBs who were going to start year one when we picked. All the other starting positions are taken, so you're looking at depth regardless of who you pick. Why is Williams a worse long-term prospect than whoever else you might've liked? He's extremely fast, physical, and productive. The notion that all this kid will ever be is ST is nonsense. 

 

idc if you think another team had a better draft. Bills had a good draft and Williams has every chance to turn out to be a good pick. 

[JGMcD2]

32 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Kelce and Gronk were both guys' #1 target, even Ertz in Philly.  

 

Are we assuming the Bills are going to shift their philosophy on offense?  That's the only way you can draw these parallels.  

Gronk was never the #1 targeted player when the Patriots went to the Super Bowl. There were 1-2 players each year that got more targets from Brady than Gronk did. Edelman, White, Cooks, Evans and Godwin. Ertz was superseded by Alshon Jeffrey. Kelce and Hill were the target monsters for KCs first Super Bowl. This most recent one was the first time a TE was the primary option with Kelce in KC. 
 

Yes, people are expecting a shift in offensive philosophy with Kincaid now in the building. No, he’s not expected to be the #1 option, but rather the 1B to Diggs 1A… much like all of the other examples above. 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

I don’t mind, at all, in the modern NFL going with slimmer, faster linebackers.. my only worry is that we start an undersized 3T and have only one 1T on the roster. 

 

I don't have the energy to research how Ed Oliver compares to 3T around the league, but Jordan Phillips styles himself "BigJ9797" for a reason, and he did play just short of half the snaps in 12 games.  And Aaron Donald is 6'1" and 280, not saying Big Ed is AD but it certainly can be done at that size.

 

As for only one 1T on the roster, "who is Tim Settle?"

[Chaos]

7 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

How did the Eagles, Lions and Texans not make this list, seemed like the entire draft was about those three teams.

Because PFF had a separate post giving out A+ grades

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Beane said it - the Bills started talking about Special Teams in Round 3. 
 

Williams he was talking about Special Teams.

 

Shorter was Special Teams.

 

It felt like to me, after Torrence, the Bills just mentally exited the draft and took players with no chance to get on the field.

 

No DTs - yes I know Beane said the board didn’t fall their way. The Baylor

DT went right after Williams…

 

No DEs, No OTs (passed on Dewand Jones, Duncan), No Centers. 
 

Just a miniature linebacker, a special teams Kumerow replacement, a backup Guard and long shot corner. 

 

Passing on Dawand Jones was the best move they made.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't have the energy to research how Ed Oliver compares to 3T around the league, but Jordan Phillips styles himself "BigJ9797" for a reason, and he did play just short of half the snaps in 12 games.  And Aaron Donald is 6'1" and 280, not saying Big Ed is AD but it certainly can be done at that size.

 

As for only one 1T on the roster, "who is Tim Settle?"

Tim Settle was a complete non-factor, Phillips is unreliable and Ed Oliver’s lasting impression was getting WORKED by backup Bengals in the snow. 
 

I have no idea what point you’re making, but I would love to be wrong about Oliver … because we’re kinda dependent upon him right now.  

[Chaos]

50 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Kelce and Gronk were both guys' #1 target, even Ertz in Philly.  

 

Are we assuming the Bills are going to shift their philosophy on offense?  That's the only way you can draw these parallels.  

Philosophy is often personnel dependent. The Bills will fully utilize Kincaid. 

[Beck Water]

Just now, SCBills said:

Tim Settle was a complete non-factor, Phillips is unreliable and Ed Oliver’s lasting impression was getting WORKED by backup Bengals in the snow. 
 

I have no idea what point you’re making, but I would love to be wrong about Oliver … because we’re kinda dependent upon him right now.  

 

You did not appear to be making performative comparisons.  You stated "have only one 1T on the roster. "

 

My point is that you are incorrect.  If you write something in plain English which is incorrect, don't get huffy when the error is brought to your attention.

 

I do think Settle was trying to play through a torn calf muscle last season, but I would agree his results were not what we'd like to see and missing DaQuan was a factor in the Bengals loss.

 

My point about Oliver is that people like to toss around terms like "too small" or "undersized" without actually looking up the size of top players at that position.  Oliver may be uneven in his performance, but I'm gonna bet if you listed the top 10 3T DT it would be found that Oliver is closer to their size than you believe.