2023 NFL Draft - Day 3 debrief

[GunnerBill]

Aaaaannnnnndddd breathe. The 2023 NFL Draft is over. I always get that feeling on Draft Saturday, a bit like the Friday of the Cheltenham horse racing festival... the sadness that you have to wait 52 weeks to do it again. This was not the most talent laden draft ever but it was one of the most fun. Especially Thursday Night which might be my favourite first round of all time. Day 3 is now in the books which is bad news for Brandon Beane who is on the phone to the London Monarchs - the NFL's new London based team who entered the league in 2045 seeing if he can trade back again for a 2047 6th round pick. Onto the serious stuff....

 

The Bills picks...

Strangely I don't have a lot to say. The Bills picked three guys on the final day of the draft but none of them are guys I have done any detailed scouting on. Justin Shorter (by name, but not by nature... he is 6'4) gives them a developmental bigger, outside receiver who can also be an effective gunner on special teams. I think the way to see this pick is that he is Jake Kumerow's replacement. He is a bit of an underachiever in college having originally been a 5 star recruit at Penn State but made minimal impact before transferring to Florida where he was a role player rather than a feature guy. He is big, he is a good contested catch guy and he will be a redzone target. But the bits of his game I have seen (mainly while evaluating Anthony Richardson) he is very one paced, lacks initial burst and explosion and lacks any short area quickness. He is fine when he can get those long strides going, but whenever the field gets tight - either among defenders or by the sideline - he can look cumbersome. I don't mind it as a gamble on a size guy but the worry I have is I struggle to think of one of those bigger type receivers who underwhelmed in college and then suddenly performed in the NFL. 

 

The first of the two seventh rounders, after Brandon Beane's roughly 106 trade downs, was Nick Broeker, offensive lineman from Ole Miss who I have seen no more than snippets of. His RAS score looks better than I expected it to, partially because he ran a decent 40. He looks a bit athletically limited to me on tape, but all the cliches about smart, tough, teachable apply here. I can imagine Sean McDermott loving him. I think he played a bit of tackle in college too and Brandon Beane did allude to the Bills trying him at both. It would massively increase his roster chances if he can compete at right tackle as well as guard, because suddenly we have something of a logjam at those interior positions. We know Brandon Beane LOVES to flip offensive line depth for day 3 picks in training camp - Marshall Newhouse, Wyatt Teller (whoops), Russell Bodine and Cody Ford - so it wouldn't stun me if he found a way to do that again and that would open a spot for Broeker to make the 53. I know even less about Alex Austin, but just from the physical profile and the couple of highlights videos I have found on youtube he fits their classic late round corner profile. Long, boundary corner who looks a natural fit for zone. Plays off, with good eye discipline and comes up to tackle in the run game. I think he is a bit of a straight lines player looking both at his agility testing and the tape. Probably will struggle to make the 53 but could be a solid developmental guy for the practice squad. 

 

And of course they picked up two 6th round picks for next year in the process. It was something I was thinking as I was going through the draft but now that Josh's big money is kicking in the Bills need to be a team that drafts 7, 8, 9 guys each year. They won't all pay off, but they need to find cheap talent to provide depth across their roster. Next year's class should be better than this one (my view on which has been very clear) so I like adding a bit of flexibility for that. Interesting note that both Shorter (in person 30 visit) and Broeker (virtual meeting) were on the list of guys the Bills had met with during the process. It isn't everything but we should remember each year how important the Bills consider those in person meetings. 

 

Finally, before I finish on the Bills, interestingly in 24 hours they have gone from "Dorian Williams will only play outside as a rookie" to "we will decide by training camp whether we will let him compete for the Mike." Interesting. Beane was pretty definitive on Friday so being more open to the alternative on Saturday did jump out to me somewhat. 

 

The UDFAs

I think we have signed six to this point. Two offensive linemen, including Richard Gouraige our 71st Florida Gator signing of this draft season; two wide receivers including Reggie Wayne's cousin, a defensive lineman out of Alabama in DJ Dale (who has an outside shot at the roster) and my guy - running back Jordan Mims out of Fresno State - who got a mention in my draft sleepers thread. Mims is the guy I am most excited about. He might be a practice squad guy as a rookie but he is an all around running back. He is fast enough, he has good hands out of the backfield and he can block. I think he might have a Quinton Morris like arc where he makes the practice squad as a rookie but then cracks the roster as a second year player. I would expect another 4 or 5 UDFAs to follow. 

 

Other notable moves

I was not joining in the seemingly universal praise for the Bears first two days. In fact through the first two days they were on my list of teams that had drafted poorly. I liked their day 3 moves much better. Roschon Johnson the Texas running back in round 4 has a chance to start for them as a rookie, Tyler Scott will be behind Claypool, DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney but provides good depth and upside at receiver and Terell Smith the corner out of Minnesota in round 5 was one of my favourite picks of the day. On a bad roster they definitely added some depth and potential contributors. Houston were another strong performer. Henry To'o To'o, Jarrett Patterson and Xavier Hutchinson all have the developmental potential to be good starters in the NFL and were picked through rounds 5 and 6. Finally the Colts are not a team I've talked much about during the draft but they have had a really strong weekend. Obviously a lot of it hinges on Anthony Richardson, but Julius Brents picked in round 2 and Darius Rush picked in round 5 have the potential to be their starting corner duo as rookies - solidifying a spot that has been problematic for the team for a number of seasons. Josh Downs was great value in round 3 and will likely beat out Isaiah McKenzie as the starting slot, and Adetomiwa Adebawore - who I thought would get overdrafted - actually landed with them about where he should early in round 4. 

 

And then there were SIX....

My board had six graded guys remaining at the point that the final selection was made. Surprised by the Alabama duo Emil Ekiyor and Eli Ricks not being taken. Maybe people steered away from them in later rounds as guys who've maximised their potential and don't offer more upside but they both have some good tape out there. Anyway to break down where my six undrafted guys have landed as UDFAs (and two of my sleeper post guys who were not on my board too):

 

1. Emil Ekiyor, IOL, Alabama - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2. Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

3 Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame - DETROIT LIONS

4. Ivan Pace, LB, Cincinnati - MINNESOTA VIKINGS

5. Rezjohn Wright, CB, Oregon State - CAROLINA PANTHERS

6. Trey Dean III, S, Florida - NEW YORK JETS

 

NR - Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, West Virginia - NEW YORK GIANTS

NR - Jordan Mims, RB, Fresno State - BUFFALO BILLS

 

I wish all of those the best with their NFL futures (yes, even Trey Dean!)

 

And that's it! The end! Another draft season over and done with. Who knows what I'll do with my spare time now? Hopefully by the time we all turn our minds draftward next year we will be speculating about how Brandon Beane is going to use the 32nd pick. Now to start scrutinising OTAs  

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by GunnerBill

[BuffaloBillyG]

The IOL battle in camp is going to be fun to watch and see how it plays out. I would be inclined to think that McGovern is a pretty sure bet to start the season at LG. After that...who knows.

 

I have a feeling the season will start with Morse at C and Bates at RG. Something just tells me that Torrence being a rookie will be the primary backup to start.  But someone is going to get "Wally Pip'd" there and if Torrence sees the field due to injury I don't see him heading back to the bench. 

 

I like the extra picks next year for multiple reasons. As stated, yes the next class looks to be stronger. Also, it opens up flexibility to slide up and down the draft board a bit next year. Late round picks are excellent deal sweeteners. 

 

The extra draft capital also lends to the idea that with the extra picks in his pocket, Beane would be more likely to be a buyer at the trade deadline should we need to add someone to bolster the roster. All good things.

 

I'm really excited to see this rookie class in action. From the highlights I've watched Williams looks to be something McD was looking for. Tackles through people and plays with some edge to him. 

 

Now on to the 2nd wave of FA haha.

[Coach Tuesday]

Great work Gunner I’ve enjoyed your analysis in the run-up and throughout the draft.

 

As for Williams - as I said in his pick thread he looks like a Mike to me, and I think there’s a chance he ends up in the middle sooner rather than later.  He has broad shoulders and a compact base, he squares up, sees-and-goes with little wasted movement, and is a sure tackler - when he hits you the play ends.  He looks like a middle linebacker to me and I’m glad they might see it that way too.

[Warcodered]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Finally, before I finish on the Bills, interestingly in 24 hours they have gone from "Dorian Williams will only play outside as a rookie" to "we will decide by training camp whether we will let him compete for the Mike." Interesting. Beane was pretty definitive on Friday so being more open to the alternative on Saturday did jump out to me somewhat.

I think this was more in response to people seemingly thinking he'd slammed the door shut on the possibility Friday, when in reality he'd actually said it was going to be a lot to ask of the rookie to go from a simpler system to learning our more complicated system and it'd be an easier transition starting on the outside.

[OldTimer1960]

I’m kind of excited to see if the light can go on for Shorter.  He won’t major in sharp, precise routes, but his size is outstanding and looks like he improved his hands after some drop issues earlier.  Someone posted a video of him training and his body shows that he is a hard worker.  Hoping he can be a good backup receiver here who can contribute as a deep threat and a big body in the middle of the field.

39 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I think this was more in response to people seemingly thinking he'd slammed the door shut on the possibility Friday, when in reality he'd actually said it was going to be a lot to ask of the rookie to go from a simpler system to learning our more complicated system and it'd be an easier transition starting on the outside.

Especially considering MLB typically calls the D.  That’s a lot to put on a rookie from a bit lower level of competition.

[OldTimer1960]

All of the discussions leading up to and during the draft were great fun.  My sincere thanks to Gunner and others who clearly put in a great deal of time and effort not only in researching the prospects, but actually evaluating them as well.  That takes a lot of time and no small amount of expertise that they have built over the years.  I enjoy watching the actual game tapes for some of the prospects, but I don’t have the time (presently, but retirement isn’t far off!) nor the expertise beyond 50+ years of fandom to do what they do.

 

Looking forward to offseason training notes and camp for more discussions.  The conference and the AFC East are Uber-competitive.  I can’t remember ever seeing so many really talented teams in one division and one conference.  There will be some outstanding teams who miss the playoffs in the AFC this year.