Famous NFL Draft "Reaches" who went on to significant NFL Success

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

I didn't say Mayock was a good talent evaluator. I said I felt sorry for him because what happened with the Raiders is IMO more a reflection of Jon Gruden.

 

I believe this because he was hired by Gruden.

 

 

As @Kirby Jackson already pointed out, Mahomes was a late riser.

 

I don't recall there being much surprise that he was taken.

 

Maybe I'm wrong but I remember thinking that I'd be good if the Bills took him at #10.

 

 

Mahomes was polarizing leading up to the draft.  Many people in media, here, etc hated the idea of him at 10 but were all for it in the second or in a trade down.  Then others thought he should definitely go first half of first round.
 

I did not want him at 10 for example because I hated the idea of taking a QB early who everyone said needs to change all his mechanics to succeed and I had no faith at all we were the team to successfully help him do that at the time.  We had just hired a DC as HC and had historically been awful at developing project QBs.  
 

Only QB I was comfortable with taking at 10 that year was Watson.  I wouldn’t have been pissed if we took Mahomes, but I preferred trading down to get him or just taking Watson.  

[Greybeard]

First name that came to mind, Bob Hayes, the Cowboy.

 

The Dallas Cowboys selected Hayes in the seventh round (88th overall) of the 1964 NFL Draft with a future draft pick, which allowed the team to draft him before his college eligibility was over, taking a chance that the Olympic sprinter with unrefined football skills could excel as a wide receiver.[9] He was also selected by the Denver Broncos in the 14th round (105th overall) of the 1964 AFL Draft, with a future selection. The bet paid off, due to his amazing feats in cleats. Hayes has been credited by many with forcing the NFL to develop a zone defense and the bump and run to attempt to contain him.

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Mahomes was polarizing leading up to the draft.  Many people in media, here, etc hated the idea of him at 10 but were all for it in the second or in a trade down.  Then others thought he should definitely go first half of first round.
 

I did not want him at 10 for example because I hated the idea of taking a QB early who everyone said needs to change all his mechanics to succeed and I had no faith at all we were the team to successfully help him do that at the time.  We had just hired a DC as HC and had historically been awful at developing project QBs.  
 

Only QB I was comfortable with taking at 10 that year was Watson.  I wouldn’t have been pissed if we took Mahomes, but I preferred trading down to get him or just taking Watson.  

 

And then we drafted Nathan Peterman... 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

4 hours ago, Steptide said:

Not sure where Daniel Jones will end up by the end of his career, but right now he's on this path 

He’s talented enough to have been taken that high. He has had some ***** coaching. I think he’s got a shot to be a good starter 

[Steve O]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:47 PM, gonzo1105 said:

Sebastian Janikowski

 

 

The entire Bills draft that year started 31 games for the Bills and 47 games for other teams (Tillman and Morris accounted for all but 12 of those starts.) I was severely ridiculed for my mock draft with him our first pick.

[The Jokeman]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Freeney definitely. He was shut down by Bryant McKinnie in a Miami-Syracuse game in his senior season and the view was that against real competition he was shown to be a paper tiger. He had a much better career than McKinnie and should probably go to the HOF.

That said, the Bills should have taken McKinnie over Mike Williams. 

[Livinginthepast]

19 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

It was definitely a bit of a reach at the time…

 

USA Today gave the Chiefs a C- for picking Mahomes. “Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL.”

 

SB Nation: “My grade on what Kansas City did in this draft is due to my opinion that they gave up way too much to trade up for quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the first round.”

 

Sporting News: “Trading up for Mahomes, a big-armed gunslinger who really doesn’t mesh with the true mentality as Alex Smith’s successor, set up a bad tone in this draft.”

 

 

It just goes to show you how the NFL pundits are not much better than fans (if at all ) on assessing talent. I'm also constantly surprised at how much faith fans put into NFL GMs, a lot of whom have been even more clueless than fans on their draft picks over the last 30 years. The greatest QB in NFL history going in the 5th round at 199th is the gold standard exemplar of this.  

[PatsFanNH]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:53 PM, Chaos said:

When all is said and done, the NFL drafts typically largely going according to form.  My guess is 90% of the players who are consenus top 3 round picks, go in the top 3 rounds, just mostly in a much different order than people mock.  

Every draft has a couple of percieved "reaches".   This year in the second round Brenton Strange, DJ Johnson,  and Broderic Martin all looked to be big reaches. 
 

In the the last 20 years of the NFL, are teams ever rewarded for "reaching"? Any prominent examples of players who were considered "reaches" who made the GM who reached look like genius? 

How about Patrick Chung, or  Kyle Dugger. Both were considered huge reaches when BB drafted them. Chung had a very good career and Dugger is a top Safety.

[Bob in STL]

18 hours ago, Greybeard said:

First name that came to mind, Bob Hayes, the Cowboy.

 

The Dallas Cowboys selected Hayes in the seventh round (88th overall) of the 1964 NFL Draft with a future draft pick, which allowed the team to draft him before his college eligibility was over, taking a chance that the Olympic sprinter with unrefined football skills could excel as a wide receiver.[9] He was also selected by the Denver Broncos in the 14th round (105th overall) of the 1964 AFL Draft, with a future selection. The bet paid off, due to his amazing feats in cleats. Hayes has been credited by many with forcing the NFL to develop a zone defense and the bump and run to attempt to contain him.

How is a 7th round and 14th round selection a reach?  

 

To me it was calculated risk that paid off big.  

[Fleezoid]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:56 PM, FrenchConnection said:

Cole Strange was considered to be a reach, but then he started all 17 games for the Pats as a rookie. 

 

 

[Your Brown Eye]

12 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

That said, the Bills should have taken McKinnie over Mike Williams. 

 

That one still boggles the mind, I was walking around all day with a chubby thinking that McKinnie will be our pick and the LT position would be solidified for a decade only to hear OT Williams named called because the Bills brass thought OT Jennings did enough to earn the LT spot if I remember correctly.

[Drew21PA]

2 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

 

 

Nice find 

[DasNootz]

Whitner?  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I’m gonna get gigantic **** for this, but Donte Whitner was considered a huge reach. He went on to have a pretty productive 11 year career. Donovan McNabb also. I remember the boos on draft day. Turned out pretty solid 👍

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 4/29/2023 at 7:33 PM, IronMaidenBills said:

Sorry sarcasm doesn’t do well here lol 

It's all in your phrasing.  Add a few of these '🙄', the phrase "It's abundantly clear", or finish off you post with /s.

*
You're welcome.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

19 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

And then we drafted Nathan Peterman... 

 

[Kaenon]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:54 PM, Gambit said:

Our very own, Josh Allen.

Josh was almost picked #1 by the Browns and was a consensus Top 5-10 pick.

 

I'm confused.

[Chaos]

On 4/30/2023 at 2:28 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

Yikes behind Kizer? Damn

Mahomes as a consenus first round pick, not 40. Some random outlier mock may have missed the point. But Mahomes was expected to go in the first round. 

3 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I’m gonna get gigantic **** for this, but Donte Whitner was considered a huge reach. He went on to have a pretty productive 11 year career. Donovan McNabb also. I remember the boos on draft day. Turned out pretty solid 👍

He was not a huge reach. This is discussed earlier in the thread. ESPN's had mocked him at 20th overall.  So a modest reach.  Aaron Maybin defines huge reach. 

9 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

It just goes to show you how the NFL pundits are not much better than fans (if at all ) on assessing talent. I'm also constantly surprised at how much faith fans put into NFL GMs, a lot of whom have been even more clueless than fans on their draft picks over the last 30 years. The greatest QB in NFL history going in the 5th round at 199th is the gold standard exemplar of this.  

To be fair, Mahomes was a project and did not play his rookie season. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Mahomes as a consenus first round pick, not 40. Some random outlier mock may have missed the point. But Mahomes was expected to go in the first round. 

He was not a huge reach. This is discussed earlier in the thread. ESPN's had mocked him at 20th overall.  So a modest reach.  Aaron Maybin defines huge reach. 

To be fair, Mahomes was a project and did not play his rookie season. 

Idk. I’d consider going from the 20th rated prospect to being the 2nd overall player drafted as a considerable reach especially coming out of a college football powerhouse like Syracuse. 
 

Aaron Maybin is in his own category as far as draft reaches go. 😂

[boyst]

10 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

How about Patrick Chung, or  Kyle Dugger. Both were considered huge reaches when BB drafted them. Chung had a very good career and Dugger is a top Safety.

Dugger isn't there yet and people who paid attention knew he was going to be this good.