Small theory about our 1st and 3rd picks vis a vis USC

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It comes down to @IronMaidenBills prefers Mayer to Kincaid and he prefers the Princeton kid to Shorter. He is entitled to his view. 

 

I disagree with him on Kincaid - Mayer, especially in terms of fit here in the Bills offense. I don't know anything about the Princeton kid and really I know little about Shorter. So I don't have a strong opinion. 

 

That’s not the issue Gunner. I don’t feel strongly about Iosivas or Shorter. He can have whatever opinion he wants. It’s the inconsistent standard as to which he’s holding players to prove his point.

 

TLDR on his views upthread:

 

Kincaid ain’t as good as Mayer because Kincaid didn’t make an impact against Florida (SEC School). 
 

Shorter isn’t as good as Iosivas because Iosivas had more yards, receptions and TDs… but doesn’t adjust for the fact that Shorter played in the SEC. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That’s not the issue Gunner. I don’t feel strongly about Iosivas or Shorter. He can have whatever opinion he wants. It’s the inconsistent standard as to which he’s holding players to prove his point.

 

TLDR on his views upthread:

 

Kincaid ain’t as good as Mayer because Kincaid didn’t make an impact against Florida (SEC School). 
 

Shorter isn’t as good as Iosivas because Iosivas had more yards, receptions and TDs… but doesn’t adjust for the fact that Shorter played in the SEC. 

I never said that. I said I was extremely disappointed that Shorter played with a 1st round QB, and still couldn’t separate enough against SEC talent for his QB to find  him. I said Iosivas never had that chance as he didn’t play with Richardson or against SEC teams in the season. What we do know is he was at the senior bowl practices and did well against players like Rush in practice. I just find it really disappointing that Shorter couldn’t do anything of value with Richardson as his QB. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That’s not the issue Gunner. I don’t feel strongly about Iosivas or Shorter. He can have whatever opinion he wants. It’s the inconsistent standard as to which he’s holding players to prove his point.

 

TLDR on his views upthread:

 

Kincaid ain’t as good as Mayer because Kincaid didn’t make an impact against Florida (SEC School). 
 

Shorter isn’t as good as Iosivas because Iosivas had more yards, receptions and TDs… but doesn’t adjust for the fact that Shorter played in the SEC. 

 

Yes that is what I was trying to say. It doesn't come down to anything more than he prefers player A to player B and prefers player X to player Y. 

 

People looking for a logical thread that ties it all together won't find one.

[Milanos Milano]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes that is what I was trying to say. It doesn't come down to anything more than he prefers player A to player B and prefers player X to player Y. 

 

People looking for a logical thread that ties it all together won't find one.

I’ve stated my reasons logically. How do we expect Shorter to contribute on this team when he couldn’t even do much on a team that had a 1st round QB? 
In a way, I think that’s precisely why some 30% of the league is made up of udfas, because a lot of talented players do things with subpar talent around them but teams are afraid of the competition talent divide. Meanwhile most of your busts are from players with marginal production with great surrounding talent. Which is why I’m concerned about Shorter. 

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I never said that. I said I was extremely disappointed that Shorter played with a 1st round QB, and still couldn’t separate enough against SEC talent for his QB to find  him. I said Iosivas never had that chance as he didn’t play with Richardson or against SEC teams in the season. What we do know is he was at the senior bowl practices and did well against players like Rush in practice. I just find it really disappointing that Shorter couldn’t do anything of value with Richardson as his QB. 

What’s your standard for his “QB to find him” ?

 

Looking at just raw stats, Florida’s leading receiver was Ricky Pearsall (33/661/5). Their second leading receiver was Justin Shorter (29/577/2). Their third leading receiver is as Xzavier Henderson (38/410/2). 
 

Pearsall played in 13 games for Florida, Shorter played in 9 games and Henderson played in 11. 
 

Per Game:

 

PEARSALL

 

2.5 REC / 51 YDS / 0.38 TD

 

SHORTER

 

3.2 REC / 64 YDS / 0.22 TD

 

HENDERSON

 

3.4 REC / 37 YDS / 0.18 TD

 

Mind you, Florida was 10/14 in the SEC in passing attempts in 2022. Sure, Richardson was a 1st round pick, but it’s not like there was an abundance of opportunity to catch the football. He was 20th in receiving in the SEC as part of an offense that was towards the back half in passing. 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

What’s your standard for his “QB to find him” ?

 

Looking at just raw stats, Florida’s leading receiver was Ricky Pearsall (33/661/5). Their second leading receiver was Justin Shorter (29/577/2). Their third leading receiver is as Xzavier Henderson (38/410/2). 
 

Pearsall played in 13 games for Florida, Shorter played in 9 games and Henderson played in 11. 
 

Per Game:

 

PEARSALL

 

2.5 REC / 51 YDS / 0.38 TD

 

SHORTER

 

3.2 REC / 64 YDS / 0.22 TD

 

HENDERSON

 

3.4 REC / 37 YDS / 0.18 TD

 

Mind you, Florida was 10/14 in the SEC in passing attempts in 2022. Sure, Richardson was a 1st round pick, but it’s not like there was an abundance of opportunity to catch the football. He was 20th in receiving in the SEC as part of an offense that was towards the back half in passing. 

They were in the back half of passing because their WRs are trash. When you are back half of passing and yet your QB goes round 1, that’s a major redflag against the quality of receivers. 

[JGMcD2]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

They were in the back half of passing because their WRs are trash. When you are back half of passing and yet your QB goes round 1, that’s a major redflag against the quality of receivers. 

You’re ignoring the fact that Anthony Richardson has MAJOR issues as a passer. He is a guy who struggled to consistently throw the football for reasons very clearly not attributed to his receivers. You can make a logical argument that Shorter was actually hurt by the fact Richardson is an inconsistent and unpolished passer. 
 

He ranked 95th in catchable rate (79.8%) and 106th in on-target rate (65.4%) among 114 FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes last year.

 

Richardson’s improvements are centered around his accuracy. While Richardson has a strong arm, ball placement and location are a couple key elements that Richardson appears to be inconsistent with. It appears Richardson’s accuracy comes from his mechanics. When he can operate correctly mechanically, everything looks good. When he doesn’t quite execute proper mechanics, it leads to missed throws, incompletions, tipped throws, or interceptions.

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

If this is true, then it’s pretty sad if pro scouts get sucked into individual games. When you talent evaluate, you have to take way more into consideration than just great performances at random times. That’s to emotional for analytical accuracy. 

Don’t quit your day job

11 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

So you could be right
 

We could still work out very well for the bills. I believe the Jordan Addison is going to be a fine player in the NFL but that doesn’t mean that guys like Dalton won’t much like last year whenever we were probably targeting with Kc Duffy but ended up with Elam I believe they are both going to be fine players in the NFL

[CorkScrewHill]

4 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I never said to not draft him at all, but drafting someone in the 1st that didn’t participate at the combine due to an injury is fairly risky. Even Gronkowski participated in the combine despite his back problems. 

Seriously every year talented players get drafted high despite a short-term injury that causes them to miss the combine. As a hypothetical.. if Peyton Manning had injured his rotator cuff in a manner that did not make him a risk to miss significant playing time but would cause him to miss the combine .. should he have been the top pick the year he came out .. of course!!! You are trying to draft the best player for your team not who is healthiest at the combine. They can measure your speed on the field from game tape .. the combine is just a data point.

 

As for getting him later, he was believed to be likely to go with the next pick and therefore couldn’t wait .. you can’t trade down or even stay put and get the guy the Bills felt matched what we are trying to do on offense.

 

The 4.5 speed, great hands, route running, few drops were things the Bills must have liked. 
 

in the end you can’t just compare player A to Player B based on stats alone. Michael Jordan only averaged 19.6 pts a game in college. The system NC played in limited his ability to put up bigger numbers … but he was worlds better than any other player in that draft.

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

So he was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine, but we are willing to take a  player in the 1st round that was hurt enough to not participate? 

Legend has it that people who are injured eventually recover.

[4merper4mer]

16 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

Kincaid was seen by some as a top 10 prospect.  Possibly top 5 if you ignore QBs.  He was generally seen as the top TE.  The Bills certainly must have been looking at TEs as one of their top 3-4 needs.   But they stumbled upon Kincaid because they were watching Addison?  Shirley.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

Kincaid was seen by some as a top 10 prospect.  Possibly top 5 if you ignore QBs.  He was generally seen as the top TE.  The Bills certainly must have been looking at TEs as one of their top 3-4 needs.   But they stumbled upon Kincaid because they were watching Addison?  Shirley.

Not what I was saying at all. Come on. I just think that seeing a guy up close in a game featuring a team with a player you’re intensely interested in may have an effect on one’s opinion.  And I also said it could be a coincidence. Fwiw, I like the pick a lot.

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Not what I was saying at all. Come on. I just think that seeing a guy up close in a game featuring a team with a player you’re intensely interested in may have an effect on one’s opinion.  And I also said it could be a coincidence. Fwiw, I like the pick a lot.

I’m saying I think there is a good chance Kincaid was scouted and on the Bills radar for a long time.

 

Regarding Williams I think you might be on to something but more so because the Bills were reportedly keyed in on Spears.