Small theory about our 1st and 3rd picks vis a vis USC

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s a combination of pure talent evaluation and production. Iosivas was separating on film more than Shorter was. Shorter also was playing with an all pro QB selected in the 1st round, and still couldn’t separate enough for his all pro QB to find him. That’s extremely concerning. 

Yeah, against Ivy League schools. Your point about measuring against SEC competition is fine, you’re just manipulating when it’s applicable or not. 
 

Why are you referring to Anthony Richardson as an All-Pro QB? That’s an honor given out in the NFL. He’s never played a snap in the NFL. He wasn’t even All-SEC
 

You’re moving the goalposts so much that you’re contradicting yourself and throwing around terms that don’t even apply to the conversation at hand. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

They both run a 4.7

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Mind you, they both run a 4.7 

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Dawson Knox also ran a 4.59 at the combine

 

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Kelce ran a 4.6, Gronkowski ran a 4.7

 

40 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Hayden Hurst runs a 4.68

 

Thank you for your scouting reports.

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for your scouting reports.

LOL I’m just simply posting 40 times. If there is one thing I’ve learned over the years, is that there really isn’t much of a difference between talented players with respect to their peers. Most talented players separate against secondaries along the same rates and space, the differences boil down to their respective QBs and coaching schemes. 

There really isn’t much of a difference between Mayer and Kincaid receiving wise, no matter what the scouts say. 

I will say that Kincaid struggled against a non ranked Florida, which is concerning. 

The fact that Shorter played with a 1st round QB and still couldn’t put up solid production is concerning. 

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

The fact that Shorter played with a 1st round QB and still couldn’t put up solid production is concerning. 

I thought he was an All-Pro QB? 

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Fun fact looking at the Mayer vs Kincaid things. Mayer often time had a higher % of the rec pie vs the rest of the WRs on their team than Kincaid,  AND with ND running the ball more often. 

That tells me Mayer would have had even better results vs Kincaid had his OC game planned differently. Mayer was often featured more often, because he was clearly the best receiving threat on the team, whereas Kincaid wasn’t featured as much despite being touted as the better WR option. 

Mind you, they both run a 4.7 

In his presser (after the draft so no need to spin) Kincaid stated he runs a 4.5

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

I thought he was an All-Pro QB? 

Well what I mean is he was taken in the 1st round, so clearly someone thinks he has all pro potential. So if Shorter can’t separate enough against SEC secondaries with a 1st round talent QB, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries with an elite QB? 

Just now, CorkScrewHill said:

In his presser (after the draft so no need to spin) Kincaid stated he runs a 4.5

Well he never went to the combine to prove that did he? People that skip the combine don’t get the benefit of the doubt. 

[CorkScrewHill]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well what I mean is he was taken in the 1st round, so clearly someone thinks he has all pro potential. So if Shorter can’t separate enough against SEC secondaries with a 1st round talent QB, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries with an elite QB? 

Well he never went to the combine to prove that did he? People that skip the combine don’t get the benefit of the doubt. 

He was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine. Why would he say he runs 4.5 when asked at his post draft presser. What benefit does he have in deceiving .. he was already picked. 
 

 

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

He was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine. Why would he say he runs 4.5 when asked at his post draft presser. What benefit does he have in deceiving .. he was already picked. 
 

 

So he was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine, but we are willing to take a  player in the 1st round that was hurt enough to not participate? 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Well what I mean is he was taken in the 1st round, so clearly someone thinks he has all pro potential. So if Shorter can’t separate enough against SEC secondaries with a 1st round talent QB, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries with an elite QB? 

If Andrei Iosivas has never separated against SEC secondaries, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries? It’s not like the man played in another Power 5 conference. 
 

I know, I know… Stetson, Lehigh, Columbia, Lafayette, Brown, Harvard, Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale and Penn are likely a tougher defensive opponent than teams that Shorter played this year like #33 defense Tennessee (7/155), #1 defense Georgia (3/66) and #17 defense LSU (3/71/1). 

 

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

If Andrei Iosivas has never separated against SEC secondaries, what makes you think he will be able to separate enough against NFL secondaries? It’s not like the man played in another Power 5 conference. 
 

I know, I know… Stetson, Lehigh, Columbia, Lafayette, Brown, Harvard, Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale and Penn are likely a tougher defensive opponent than teams that Shorter played this year like #33 defense Tennessee (7/155), #1 defense Georgia (3/66) and #17 defense LSU (3/71/1). 

 

We will never know because Iosivas never had a chance to play against a SEC team. What we do know is he played in the Senior bowl practices, and still separated enough against high end talent to get him drafted this year to a very good Cincinnati team. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[CorkScrewHill]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

So he was injured and couldn’t participate at the combine, but we are willing to take a  player in the 1st round that was hurt enough to not participate? 

Of course we are .. players get injured you don’t not draft someone just because they missed the combine. That would be weak scouting. The combine is a piece of the puzzle not the whole picture.

 

other pieces include:

Per Cbssports

“Good-hands man. Terrific at snaring passes away from his body with his big mitts. Just two drops over 93 targets in 2022 with zero drops in 2021 (45 targets).”

 

Kincaid was either first or second among 53 FBS-level TEs with at least 40 targets in targets, catches (first with 70), yards, yards per game (first with 74.2), yards per route run, and touchdowns. He was third-best in the nation in tackles avoided (16).

50% contested catch rate in 2022 according to PFF.

Also had a 50% catch rate on 10 targets inside the 10-yard line with each of his five catches going for a touchdown.

Had a 48% catch rate on 25 targets that traveled 11 or more Air Yards.

[Milanos Milano]

3 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Of course we are .. players get injured you don’t not draft someone just because they missed the combine. That would be weak scouting. The combine is a piece of the puzzle not the whole picture.

 

other pieces include:

Per Cbssports

“Good-hands man. Terrific at snaring passes away from his body with his big mitts. Just two drops over 93 targets in 2022 with zero drops in 2021 (45 targets).”

 

Kincaid was either first or second among 53 FBS-level TEs with at least 40 targets in targets, catches (first with 70), yards, yards per game (first with 74.2), yards per route run, and touchdowns. He was third-best in the nation in tackles avoided (16).

50% contested catch rate in 2022 according to PFF.

Also had a 50% catch rate on 10 targets inside the 10-yard line with each of his five catches going for a touchdown.

Had a 48% catch rate on 25 targets that traveled 11 or more Air Yards.

I never said to not draft him at all, but drafting someone in the 1st that didn’t participate at the combine due to an injury is fairly risky. Even Gronkowski participated in the combine despite his back problems. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

We will never know because Iosivas never had a chance to play against a SEC team. What we do know is he played in the Senior bowl, and still separated enough against high end talent to get him drafted this year to a very good Cincinnati team. 

Ah yes, his wonderful Senior Bowl performance. 1 carry for -1 yards and 0 catches for 0 yards. 
 

 

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

Ah yes, his wonderful Senior Bowl performance. 1 carry for -1 yards and 0 catches for 0 yards. 
 

 

It’s more than just the game. It’s the practices as well. 1A players are almost almost going to get the nod over 1B players. 

You don’t even know how many snaps he was on the field for, or his matchups while he was on the field. 

[Milanos Milano]

Shorter was also 0 Rec 0 yards in the Shrine Bowl, so yeah. 

[JGMcD2]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

It’s more than just the game. It’s the practices as well. 1A players are almost almost going to get the nod over 1B players. 

You don’t even know how many snaps he was on the field for, or his matchups while he was on the field. 

Now we’re talking about practice?!
 

You specifically referred to how he “played in the Senior Bowl, and still separated enough against high end talent.” 

 

Now I’m supposed to believe that separation against DBs in PRACTICE carries more weight than in-game performances against Georgia, LSU and Tennessee?

[Milanos Milano]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Now we’re talking about practice?!
 

You specifically referred to how he “played in the Senior Bowl, and still separated enough against high end talent.” 

 

Now I’m supposed to believe that separation against DBs in PRACTICE carries more weight than in-game performances against Georgia, LSU and Tennessee?

Iosivas practiced against the same type of talent that is found in the SEC at the Senior Bowl. Just because he had limited snaps in the senior bowl, doesn’t mean he wasn’t capable to separating against SEC talent in games. That’s what the practices are for, to determine if someone can compete against that kind of talent. 

We will never know what Iosivas production would have been like if he was playing on Florida instead of Shorter. 

It’s basically why things like the Senior Bowl and Shrine games exist, to test these theoretical matchups the best they can. 

 

All I know is that Shorter played on a team with a 1st round QB and still had garbage stats. That’s not a ringing endorsement. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I know you do.  Do you mind my asking however, what do you base that on, beside the script draft profiles, which are all essentially the same?   Or is that it?  

 

 

He moves better, much more fluid in and out of breaks. He runs better routes and he has better hands. It is those three things for me. 

 

I didn't have a ton between he and Mayer and there are teams for whom I'd have had Mayer TE1 - basically anyone running the Shanahan scheme. 

 

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Iosivas practiced against the same type of talent that is found in the SEC at the Senior Bowl. Just because he had limited snaps in the senior bowl, doesn’t mean he wasn’t capable to separating against SEC talent in games. That’s what the practices are for, to determine if someone can compete against that kind of talent. 

We will never know what Iosivas production would have been like if he was playing on Florida instead of Shorter. 

It’s basically why things like the Senior Bowl and Shrine games exist, to test these theoretical matchups the best they can. 

 

All I know is that Shorter played on a team with a 1st round QB and still had garbage stats. That’s not a ringing endorsement. 

Since I know you’re just looking at volume statistics for Iosivas and Shorter, going to point out things on per receiving snap and per target basis. 

 

Iosivas

64 Receptions

85 Targets

924 Yards

7 TD

Shorter

29 Receptions

51 Targets 

577 Yards

2 TDs

 

Iosivas played in 10 games, was on the field for 358 snaps and was targeted 85 times… roughly 24% of the time. 
 

Shorter played in 9 games, was on the field for 247 snaps and was targeted 51 times… roughly 21% of the time. 
 

On a per snap basis, they were pretty damn close and Shorter played against SEC defenses… which was your own standard you put in place up thread. 
 

You’re also missing the fact that despite Anthony Richardson being a high pick, he’s a project and one of the biggest knocks is his ball placement and accuracy… which made Shorter’s job even tougher against SEC defenses. 
 

FWIW the Princeton QB was the best QB in the Ivy League… so relative to his peers (you standard not mine) he was the best. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

It comes down to @IronMaidenBills prefers Mayer to Kincaid and he prefers the Princeton kid to Shorter. He is entitled to his view. 

 

I disagree with him on Kincaid - Mayer, especially in terms of fit here in the Bills offense. I don't know anything about the Princeton kid and really I know little about Shorter. So I don't have a strong opinion.