Small theory about our 1st and 3rd picks vis a vis USC

[dave mcbride]

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

Edited April 29, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Low Positive]

I watched the Cotton bowl. Williams was flying to the ball all game.

[Htt2821]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

His monster game against USC was in Oct, not the Pac12 Champ game but I like the theory. 

[Alphadawg7]

I could see how that could have easily been the case, good observation.  When we took Kiko they said he kept popping to them when they were scouting Dion.  I bet this happens a lot when guys are scouting players to be honest.  

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

 

I watched the Cotton Bowl condensed version (about 20 minutes). Dorian Williams was flying out there. If we can build a strong front line he is gonna be laying the wood on guys. I noticed that he likes to hit people at full speed.

 

Odd thing about that game, I didn't see Jordan Addison... assuming he was injured.

 

But the other USC receiver Brenden Rice was a stud.

 

[Milanos Milano]

If this is true, then it’s pretty sad if pro scouts get sucked into individual games. When you talent evaluate, you have to take way more into consideration than just great performances at random times. That’s to emotional for analytical accuracy. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[SoCal Deek]

SC didn’t care about the Cotton Bowl. Their season was lost when Caleb Williams got hurt against Utah. 

[gonzo1105]

Dorian Williams deserved to be a 3rd round pick. The asinine people comparing him to Bernard didnt and don’t know what they’re talking about. Williams is very much in the mold of a Shaq Thompson. I def didn’t think that last year with Bernard 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!

 

That USC game for Kincaid was the regular season game vs. USC.  

 

In the PAC-12 CG he had 4 catches for 40 yards, no TDs, and was the fifth leading receiver on the team and the 9th leading receiver in the game.  

 

49 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

If this is true, then it’s pretty sad if pro scouts get sucked into individual games. When you talent evaluate, you have to take way more into consideration than just great performances at random times. That’s to emotional for analytical accuracy. 

 

Thanks!!  That seems to elude so many.  

 

Taking a "best" game would be no different than taking a "worst" game.  

 

The entire body of work needs to be considered, as do opponents, both team and individual, etc.  

 

That's why I'm not as excited as others about Kincaid.  His biggest games were against some of the worst pass-Ds in the NCAA, and one of which against Southern Utah, a crappy FCS team.  Not to mention, the PAC-12 isn't noted for its defenses, to understate it.  

 

 

[947]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

If this is true, then it’s pretty sad if pro scouts get sucked into individual games. When you talent evaluate, you have to take way more into consideration than just great performances at random times. That’s to emotional for analytical accuracy. 

You don't think they went back and watched every snap of the players they put on the short list?

 

Maybe the USC tape did initially put Kincaid & Dorian Williams on their radar, but I have no doubt they did a ton more work before grading them.

[Milanos Milano]

13 minutes ago, 947 said:

You don't think they went back and watched every snap of the players they put on the short list?

 

Maybe the USC tape did initially put Kincaid & Dorian Williams on their radar, but I have no doubt they did a ton more work before grading them.

Maybe they did, I’m not exactly sure how much time analysis they dedicate to each and every prospect they filter. Obviously they can’t go to every game or watch every single snap of every single prospect they put grades on. 
There are quite a few non productive games that Kincaid had against okish teams that are a little concerning. You usually want to see a 1st round talent have fairly consistent games. Mayer had more 60yrd+ games then Kincaid, against slightly better teams. There were many times Kincaid wasn’t even top 2 on the team in receiving games, where Mayer had more, etc. 

[Milanos Milano]

Kincaid had only 5 games with 5+ rec. Where Mayer had 8 games with 5+ rec. 

 

Kincaids 5 games came against 

 

SUU, USC, WSU, Oregon, and Colorado

 

 

Mayers 8 games came against 

USC, BC, UNLV, Stanford, BYU, UNC, Marshall, Ohio State

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I could see how that could have easily been the case, good observation.  When we took Kiko they said he kept popping to them when they were scouting Dion.  I bet this happens a lot when guys are scouting players to be honest.  

 

I'm confused here - are you talking about Kiko Alonso, drafted in 2013, and the Dion you mention is Dion Jordan?

[Chaos]

42 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Maybe they did, I’m not exactly sure how much time analysis they dedicate to each and every prospect they filter. Obviously they can’t go to every game or watch every single snap of every single prospect they put grades on. 
There are quite a few non productive games that Kincaid had against okish teams that are a little concerning. You usually want to see a 1st round talent have fairly consistent games. Mayer had more 60yrd+ games then Kincaid, against slightly better teams. There were many times Kincaid wasn’t even top 2 on the team in receiving games, where Mayer had more, etc. 

I think you need to actually watch the games to know why he was not being targeted. I actually am typically interested in who teams turn too when they are losing in the second half.  If a team is winning and running the ball, no particular reason to be passing to anyone. 

[Beck Water]

34 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I think you need to actually watch the games to know why he was not being targeted. I actually am typically interested in who teams turn too when they are losing in the second half.  If a team is winning and running the ball, no particular reason to be passing to anyone. 

 

Yes.  Also, the scouting evaluators are watching a lot more than whether or not the player is being targeted.  They're watching how he releases, how he runs his routes-is he smooth and fluid? how often is he gaining separation and open?  how does he competes for contested balls?  What routes is he being asked to run?  For a TE, is he being asked to block in line?  Downfield? How does he block?

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/michael-mayer/32004d41-5933-0676-2b57-0928ab0ea95b

Quote

Big combination tight end with the demeanor for run blocking and the size for tough, chain-moving catches underneath. Mayer will come into the league with better blocking technique than most tight ends in this year’s draft. He’s built for in-line duty and was an extension of the Notre Dame offensive line at times. His feet are a little heavy getting into and through his routes, but he has the hand strength and contact balance to win heavily contested catches on the first two levels. Mayer might need to polish his route running to become a high-volume target, but he’s a safe pick and will be a good pro who can become a plus player as a run blocker and pass catcher.

 

Most of his listed strengths are strengths for blocking and for running short routes.  Most of his weaknesses have to do with route running and catch ability outside his frame.

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dalton-kincaid/32004b49-4e06-9130-e563-7edd228031c8

Quote

Move tight end whose premium talent as a pass-catcher will be the primary focus for evaluators. Kincaid is a fluid route runner with the athleticism and play speed to create mismatches against lesser coverage. Impeccable ball skills and sticky hands allow him to tilt 50/50 contested throws in his favor. He lacks the play strength and technique to work in-line, but can handle some positional blocking in space from time to time. Kincaid can manage a more extended route tree, allowing calculating play-callers to open up the entire field and stress coverages. He will need to acclimate to a more physical/athletic brand of coverage, but should blossom into a weapon.

 

Most of his listed strengths are strengths as a pass receiving weapon.  Most of his weaknesses have to do with blocking - that he's not able to work in-line as a blocking TE.

 

Mayer and Kincaid are both good players and predicted to become starters, but they very different players in their scouting reports.  Trying to boil it down to who had more 5 reception games is silly.  That's not how pro scouting works.

 

It's telling that Mayer went 10 picks later than Kincaid.  It says that the rest of the league isn't impressed by his superior number of 5 catch games.

 

Edited April 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[Milanos Milano]

14 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I think you need to actually watch the games to know why he was not being targeted. I actually am typically interested in who teams turn too when they are losing in the second half.  If a team is winning and running the ball, no particular reason to be passing to anyone. 

Let me start a better statistical breakdown, and maybe I will make a thread about it. But let’s just take one example.  Utah played Florida (at the time a non ranked SEC school), they lost 29-26, he had only 2 receptions for 29 yards. He had 2 receptions of of 22 thrown for approx 10% of the throws. His team ran 39 times. 3 other receivers on the team had more receptions than he did. I’m using SEC as the gold standard for now. 

Was he getting open and his QB couldn’t find him, or was he struggling against SEC level talent and just couldn’t get targeted because he wasn’t open? 

Edited April 30, 2023 by IronMaidenBills

[DCofNC]

31 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Kincaid had only 5 games with 5+ rec. Where Mayer had 8 games with 5+ rec. 

 

Kincaids 5 games came against 

 

SUU, USC, WSU, Oregon, and Colorado

 

 

Mayers 8 games came against 

USC, BC, UNLV, Stanford, BYU, UNC, Marshall, Ohio State

The giant red flags for him are 1) lack of experience. 2) Lower level competition 3) inconsistent performances.  I think he’s a bit of a project, the opposite of Knox who had barely my receptions, this guy is basically a large slot WR who will need to learn to block.

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Was he getting open and his QB couldn’t find him, or was he struggling against SEC level talent and just couldn’t get targeted because he wasn’t open? 

Good question Another one is, "did the defense focus on shutting him down and take him away, allowing the Utah team to compete and almost beat a gold standard SEC team?"

Edited April 30, 2023 by Chaos

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Maybe they did, I’m not exactly sure how much time analysis they dedicate to each and every prospect they filter. Obviously they can’t go to every game or watch every single snap of every single prospect they put grades on. 
There are quite a few non productive games that Kincaid had against okish teams that are a little concerning. You usually want to see a 1st round talent have fairly consistent games. Mayer had more 60yrd+ games then Kincaid, against slightly better teams. There were many times Kincaid wasn’t even top 2 on the team in receiving games, where Mayer had more, etc. 

 

You can call the school and ask for a disc (or whatever video format) for a particularly player's plays in any or all games.  They'll happily send them if you're a media member.  

 

FWIW I'd have been just as happy with Mayer.  

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, DCofNC said:

The giant red flags for him are 1) lack of experience. 2) Lower level competition 3) inconsistent performances.  I think he’s a bit of a project, the opposite of Knox who had barely my receptions, this guy is basically a large slot WR who will need to learn to block.

When I scout, I want to see consistency, I want to see how well they do against top ranked teams and SEC schools. I want to see how they do against players that are getting drafted or projected to get drafted in the coming years. I also want to see the % of targets they are commanding per game and how talented their QB/WR/RBs are relative to their respective peers. Obviously watching how one separates is important, if they are getting consistently open, but are having low targets, that’s a QB problem. Honestly it would be really nice if someone developed an algorithm to determine how much exact space they were generating per route ran vs opponent strength. 

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Good question Another one is, "did the defense focus on shutting him down and take him away, allowing the Utah team to compete and almost beat a gold standard SEC team?"

I would have to go back and watch the entirety of the game, I didn’t particularly watch that game. I’m not a real scout that gets paid, I can’t dedicate every single second of my time to doing major analytical projects. Although I feel I would pretty good at it if I was awarded an opportunity for such time dedication.