Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[K-9]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

That’s what we’ve been considering for 7 pages lol

I haven’t bothered to read all seven pages, only the two posts of yours that I’ve responded to. Your OP points out the lack success past 1st round TEs have had, which is fine. But then you seem to want to use that to somehow shade the selection of Kincaid, when it’s simply not relevant in the least. The Bills/Kincaid situation is unique, as were the situations of every other TE selected in the first round. 

 

I’ll leave you to continue the debate with others, but I have nothing more to say on this particular aspect discussion. 

[Governor]

300 with 3 TDS is realistic. At some point he’ll hit the rookie wall also and we all know what McD does then. I would take the under.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Governor

[90sBills]

On 4/29/2023 at 10:09 AM, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Wth is this? Killing my euphoria just when I’m just turning the corner on last season. 😂 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 4/29/2023 at 1:09 PM, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

We aren't going to use him like a normal TE so im expecting more production from him than tradition supports.

 

 

[papazoid]

On 4/30/2023 at 11:01 AM, Bob in STL said:

Nothing in this “analysis” means much since every player was on a different team, with a different QB, in a different scheme, with a different role, playing a different schedule. 
 

I am not saying he will catch 30 or 50 or 70 until we see how they actually use him.  I expected more from Knox but his targets are not there.  Kincaid will likely not be used as a traditional TE and we could see him as WR3 quite often.  

 

 

boom

 

i expect kincaid to start off slow......by the end of the season/playoffs he will be getting the 2nd most targets only behind diggs.

[Mat68]

How many of those draft picks went to high functioning offenses with top 5 qbs?  

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

How many of those draft picks went to high functioning offenses with top 5 qbs?  

 

It'll definitely be interesting to see how they use him given that they just gave Knox the 6th biggest contract on the team.  

 

Over the past three seasons here are the number of catches for our TEs: 

 

2022:  57 

2021:  58 

2020:  40  

 

Last season our top 7 WRs & TEs (non-RB receivers) caught 270 passes.  Four of them caught 246 of those.  

 

Add 30 for 300, with Diggs getting say 120 of those, how would the other 180 receptions be distributed?  That's an average of 30 for the other 6 receivers.  Pretty rhetorical, but it'll be interesting to see who the odd receivers out will be.  

 

 

[Mat68]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

It'll definitely be interesting to see how they use him given that they just gave Knox the 6th biggest contract on the team.  

 

Over the past three seasons here are the number of catches for our TEs: 

 

2022:  57 

2021:  58 

2020:  40  

 

Last season our top 7 WRs & TEs (non-RB receivers) caught 270 passes.  Four of them caught 246 of those.  

 

Add 30 for 300, with Diggs getting say 120 of those, how would the other 180 receptions be distributed?  That's an average of 30 for the other 6 receivers.  Pretty rhetorical, but it'll be interesting to see who the odd receivers out will be.  

 

 

I understand the utilization question.  I expect Kincaid to get the targets that went to the slot.  I think Knox can have the same production and role he has had.  Maybe a slight uptick if Kincaid is as good as some think.  Beane sees him as filling the Cole Beasley role lost last season.  That is 100 plus targets.  Im not expecting in his rookie year getting that but it will be more than 60 imo.  

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I understand the utilization question.  I expect Kincaid to get the targets that went to the slot.  I think Knox can have the same production and role he has had.  Maybe a slight uptick if Kincaid is as good as some think.  Beane sees him as filling the Cole Beasley role lost last season.  That is 100 plus targets.  Im not expecting in his rookie year getting that but it will be more than 60 imo.  

 

Slot would have been Beasley and McKenzie.  Beasley had 2 targets and 2 catches.  McK had 65 targets and 42 catches.  67 targets 44 catches total.  

 

I'm assuming, given Kincaid's known lack of speed, that 10 ypr is about right.  So if he takes all of the slot targets/catches he should have around 500 yards.  

 

So 120 for Diggs, say your 60 for Kincaid, the same 48 (say 50) for Knox, with an increase of 30 completions, that would leave 70 for Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, and Shorter.  

 

Sound about right?  

 

[Mat68]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Slot would have been Beasley and McKenzie.  Beasley had 2 targets and 2 catches.  McK had 65 targets and 42 catches.  67 targets 44 catches total.  

 

I'm assuming, given Kincaid's known lack of speed, that 10 ypr is about right.  So if he takes all of the slot targets/catches he should have around 500 yards.  

 

So 120 for Diggs, say your 60 for Kincaid, the same 48 (say 50) for Knox, with an increase of 30 completions, that would leave 70 for Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, and Shorter.  

 

Sound about right?  

 

Last few years Allen has had 572 646 and 566 attempts.  Im looking at it from a target perspective instead of catches.  Kincaid imo will have better efficacy then Knox and Davis.  Beasley kept the offense on schedule and that is what I expect Kincaid to be.  By seasons end hopefully we are at a point where Kincaid is getting most targets by someone not named Diggs.     

[Mikey152]

So, IMO the gold standard for two TE offense in the modern NFL was the NE patriots circa 2010-2012.

 

Hernandez and Gronk were both rookies in 2010. Pats went 14-2 (this was the year they got upset by Rex Ryan in the playoffs)

Brady 65.9% 3900/36/4 

Welker 86/848/7

Branch 48/706/5 (11 games)

Gronk 42/546/10

Hernandez 45/563/6

 

They also had a 1000 yard rusher that season in Green-Ellis

 

In 2011, the offense went nuts. They went 13-3 and lost to the giants in the SB.

 

Brady 65.6% 5235/39/12

Welker 122/1569/9

Branch 51/702/5

Gronk 90/1327/17

Hernandez 79/910/7

 

I think the Bills can pull something in between these two seasons off...Welker=Diggs, Branch/Llyod=Davis, Gronk=Knox, Hernandez=Kincaid. Probably a stretch to expect Gronk production out of Knox, especially in 2011. That said, I do think he could catch a lot of touchdowns as the in-line TE and will probably draw some easy matchups when Kincaid is on the field. I think you could argue that the Bills players are better or at least as good at the other spots (Kincaid a projection, obviously).

 

What derailed the pats were injuries (2012) and crimes (duh)...Bill B has been chasing this setup at various times ever since. 2011 was one of the best offenses I have ever seen. Just filthy.

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Mikey152

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Last few years Allen has had 572 646 and 566 attempts.  Im looking at it from a target perspective instead of catches.  Kincaid imo will have better efficacy then Knox and Davis.  Beasley kept the offense on schedule and that is what I expect Kincaid to be.  By seasons end hopefully we are at a point where Kincaid is getting most targets by someone not named Diggs.  

 

Wow, but you know that Diggs won't be happy if that's the case.  

 

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

List is kinda misleading but I get that it is valid. 

I would say you have to put Kincaid in the category of the similar TE styles. Which I would point to Pitts and engram. Pitts and engram, especially Pitts are WRs with a TE title. And beane has not been shy in saying that's exactly what Kincaid is going to be. A big strong slot. And I think many people are underestimating how much josh liked throwing to Beasley in the slot.

 

And just like everyone on this forum ive watched every single game of josh has played as a bill and trust in his recievers is a big part of joshs game. You can visually see joshs demeanor change when a reciever drops a ball. And sometimes the hero ball kicks in. 

I'm no where expecting a "kelce lite" but IF he really does see alot of slot time and gains joshs trust... I easily see him in the 800 yard club.

 

I'd also add almost all the TEs on this list contributed heavily to their team at some point in their careers.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Norcalbillsfan

[Koufax]

On 4/30/2023 at 4:18 AM, KDIGGZ said:

They were talking about it on WGR. Unless he's the best TE in the history of the Buffalo Bills then this pick will be a bust. The Bills haven't had much production from the TE position at all throughout their history. Who is their best TE ever? Now look up his stats and you won't be very impressed. TE is not a position you need to spend a #1 on

 

Why? This is a very talented football team, and to add an elite pass catcher will be quite useful over the next five year. He is likely to be the best TE in history of the Buffalo Bills as we don't have a big track record, but he doesn't have to be Kelce for this to be a great pick. #27(25) needs to contribute to the team and he will. Have you seen him play? You need to spend #1 picks on very good football players. Obviously very good is more important at QB/Edge/OT/CB in most cases and these positions often go higher.  He has to be good at football, and he has to be better than someone who would have been an obvious pick there.

[K D]

6 minutes ago, Koufax said:

 

Why? This is a very talented football team, and to add an elite pass catcher will be quite useful over the next five year. He is likely to be the best TE in history of the Buffalo Bills as we don't have a big track record, but he doesn't have to be Kelce for this to be a great pick. #27(25) needs to contribute to the team and he will. Have you seen him play? You need to spend #1 picks on very good football players. Obviously very good is more important at QB/Edge/OT/CB in most cases and these positions often go higher.  He has to be good at football, and he has to be better than someone who would have been an obvious pick there.

It's a commentary on how little TE's contribute to our offense. If he is only contributing less than 400 yards and 2 TD like what Hockenson did then he won't be on this team long enough for a 2nd contract just like Hockenson. Isaiah McKenzie put up better production than that as a gadget guy. If you are spending a 1st on a pass catcher you expect 800-1000 yards which would make him the best TE we have ever had in our entire history if he had those kinds of numbers

[Augie]

On 4/29/2023 at 1:09 PM, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

I’m very late to this party, so please forgive me if this has been beaten to death. The difference a guy like Kincaid makes is not just in his receptions, yards and TD’s. They want to be able to dictate to the defense, and his versatility makes everything better, if it goes as planned.  

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, Koufax said:

 

Why? This is a very talented football team, and to add an elite pass catcher will be quite useful over the next five year. He is likely to be the best TE in history of the Buffalo Bills as we don't have a big track record, but he doesn't have to be Kelce for this to be a great pick. #27(25) needs to contribute to the team and he will. Have you seen him play? You need to spend #1 picks on very good football players. Obviously very good is more important at QB/Edge/OT/CB in most cases and these positions often go higher.  He has to be good at football, and he has to be better than someone who would have been an obvious pick there.

That fella has an entrenched pre-conceived notion. Don't bother, he's not going to budge. The real answer as I and others have repeatedly pointed out is that Kincaid is a big slot/flex TE. He will be used in unique ways and should not be pigeon holed by the normal expectations associated with a traditional TE. Kincaid brings a rare skill set that allows the offense to keep the defense guessing. He has the same feel for finding the soft spot in zone coverage that Beasely possessed, the capacity to beat man coverage, and superior catch skills. He can be both a chainmover and a fella that can stretch the field. It's a home run pick. He also has Josh Allen at qb who I expect to be fully healed from the injury that affected his short and mid-range accuracy last year. 

[Augie]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

That fella has an entrenched pre-conceived notion. Don't bother, he's not going to budge. The real answer as I and others have repeatedly pointed out is that Kincaid is a big slot/flex TE. He will be used in unique ways and should not be pigeon holed by the normal expectations associated with a traditional TE. Kincaid brings a rare skill set that allows the offense to keep the defense guessing. He has the same feel for finding the soft spot in zone coverage that Beasely possessed, the capacity to beat man coverage, and superior catch skills. He can be both a chainmover and a fella that can stretch the field. It's a home run pick. He also has Josh Allen at qb who I expect to be fully healed from the injury that affected his short and mid-range accuracy last year. 

 

You don’t need Dick Butkus at MLB and Mike Ditka at TE anymore. The game is evolving, better to lead than try to catch up. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

21 hours ago, Governor said:

300 with 3 TDS is realistic. At some point he’ll hit the rookie wall also and we all know what McD does then. I would take the under.

Agreed. People need to temper their expectations based on this reason alone. Although That’s actually a pretty good stat line as a #2 TE and would show Kincaid is getting the most out of his opportunities.

[PrimeTime101]

On 4/29/2023 at 5:28 PM, Chicken Boo said:

A lot of posters in here expecting the world from Kincaid in 2023 are going to be very disappointed.

 

He will not be featured heavily in his rookie season.  It's not this regime's m.o.

This is some kind of garbage right here.. 

On 4/29/2023 at 5:10 PM, Niagara Dude said:

Not one player that you can turned into a star,  just another reason why Beane was stupid to waste a first and fourth on a position that we already have Knox at.  I don't care what number he had at Utah.  They could have traded down and got an extra 3rd and taken the monster TE from Georgia.  I like all his other picks,  just wished he had picked up a monster size DT.

Did you look at how good their offenses are? Stupid to waste a first and a fourth on this position? Do you not watch the highlights? Do you not watch what the NFL world is saying about this kid? Keep coming to your own dumb conclusions.... 

On 4/29/2023 at 6:23 PM, PBF81 said:

 

OK  LOL  

 

I'm sure we could review his "top-10s" in past years and find some interesting things.  

 

You willing to hitch your cred to his rankings now are ya.  LOL  

 

You're funny.   At least I leave open the possibility that players can beat the odds.  Apparently everyone that doesn't pencil him in as the next Gronk doesn't know what they're talking about.  ... LMAO  

 

... here's what he said about Ed Oliver;   He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with. 

 

That was a good one.   I guess he wasn't wrong.  He's a nightmare alright.  LOL  

 

And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020.  Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent.  LOL  

 

 

 

Who cares what he said about Ed Oliver... not every player pans out to an elite player.  What Beane says about a player like Oliver is what everyone else was saying.. No one has a crystal ball and knows ahead of time how a player would be when they hit the NFL field. That being said, I am done with the cry baby nay sayers that are so negative about everything. It gets old. 

 

Its peoples job to build hope for players when they feel that way... how many times have you been wrong about a player? 

 

What a downer. You must be a "ball" at parties...