Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[Billz4ever]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

They were talking about it on WGR. Unless he's the best TE in the history of the Buffalo Bills then this pick will be a bust. The Bills haven't had much production from the TE position at all throughout their history. Who is their best TE ever? Now look up his stats and you won't be very impressed. TE is not a position you need to spend a #1 on

 

He's not a traditional TE and isn't going to be used like one in this offense. Comparing him to past Bills TE's who were traditional TE's doesn't really make sense here.

[BarleyNY]

22 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Wait so it's not a good idea to trade up for a TE (especially when you already have one that you don't use)? That can't be right. Beane can do no wrong

Failure to properly use offensive assets would not fall on the GM. It’s probably be the fault of the OC unless the QB could not execute the scheme (which isn’t the case here). It remains to be seen how it all plays out, but I don’t think there is much to change. We will see a lot more 12 personnel but Kincaid will effectively be the slot WR in our 11 personnel package. My expectations for him is to perform like a good slot WR. I have loftier expectations for TDs than yards because I think we see a lot of 12 personnel in the RZ. 

[Big Turk]

23 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Wait so it's not a good idea to trade up for a TE (especially when you already have one that you don't use)? That can't be right. Beane can do no wrong

 

Or people like you don't understand football well enough to even make the argument worthwhile because you clearly demonstrate it with comments like you just made.

 

One or the other 

5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Failure to properly use offensive assets would not fall on the GM. It’s probably be the fault of the OC unless the QB could not execute the scheme (which isn’t the case here). It remains to be seen how it all plays out, but I don’t think there is much to change. We will see a lot more 12 personnel but Kincaid will effectively be the slot WR in our 11 personnel package. My expectations for him is to perform like a good slot WR. I have loftier expectations for TDs than yards because I think we see a lot of 12 personnel in the RZ. 

 

Yeah exactly. People even talking about him as a TE in the traditional sense are completely off-base. He is a pass catching weapon that will be moved around the formation like a chess piece to help dictate mismatches.

 

Basically no matter what the defense does now it's going to be wrong. That's why he is important.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Big Turk

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Yeah exactly. People even talking about him as a TE in the traditional sense are completely off-base. He is a pass catching weapon that will be moved around the formation like a chess piece to help dictate mismatches.

 

Basically no matter what the defense does now it's going to be wrong. That's why he is important.

 

I think he has a lot of value as a Z but I would pump the brakes on the “moveable chess piece” stuff for the moment. I think that could be the long term plan/hope for him though.

 

The issue is that his blocking has been pretty abysmal up until now. No exaggeration: As good as he is at route running and pass catching is how poor his is at blocking. Defenses will just match up our 12 personnel with a standard Nickel or a Big Nickel package.

 

If he can improve his blocking then he can be moved around and put at F or Y as well as Z. Then defenses will have to make some tougher choices - especially later in the season and in the playoffs when injuries take away some personnel options. Things like this are why things like having a quality third (and even fourth) safety is so important. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by BarleyNY

[K-9]

And this is relevant how, exactly? Because one TE selected in the 1st round of one draft has absolutely NOTHING to do with any other TE selected in the first round of another draft. As if their relative success has nothing to do with the teams that selected them. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I think he has a lot of value as a Z but I would pump the brakes on the “moveable chess piece” stuff for the moment. I think that could be the long term plan/hope for him though.

 

The issue is that his blocking has been pretty abysmal up until now. No exaggeration: As good as he is at route running and pass catching is how poor his is at blocking. Defenses will just match up our 12 personnel with a standard Nickel or a Big Nickel package.

 

If he can improve his blocking then he can be moved around and put at F or Y as well as Z. Then defenses will have to make some tougher choices - especially later in the season and in the playoffs when injuries take away some personnel options. Things like this are why things like having a quality third (and even fourth) safety is so important. 

 

The Bills don't plan on using him as a blocker, but he can chip and be a receiving target out a variety of formations and line up in different places to help force coverage mismatches. 

 

IMO, if Kincaid is as good as they say he is as a receiver, he will simply box out smaller CBs and safeties and run away from LBs. His basketball skills should help quite a bit in terms of body positioning on those type of plays.

[StHustle]

On 4/29/2023 at 1:09 PM, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

They discussed your thread on the NYup SHOUT Bills podcast almost exactly 30 minutes in. 
 

They said your argument doesn’t work in this case.

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

On 4/29/2023 at 1:09 PM, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Knox first year he got 28 rec. for 388 yards

Last year 48 for 517 yards

Ebron only played 13 games

Oj Howard plays on the line a lot more than slot.

 

To many inconsistenc1ies on your list. For example..

Hockenson only started 12 games first year

 

I don't think you get it...

#1, the numbers on other teams does not matter because who did some of them have throwing the rock?

#2, Kincaid will be out there weather Knox lines up or not.. Saying they share targets is silly considering Kincaid spent 2/3rds of the time or more in the slot.. per pff.

 

600 yards easy

 

 

The GM even said the 2 of them should "pair up nicely."  If anyone gets the rock less its Knox and Davis.

 

If this dude gets 40 catches? He does not stop at the point of catching a ball.. he will have 100 or more yards added to it.

 

Unlike knox.. this is a more trusted receiver that i could see easily pulling 600 yards this season.

 

This is a different beast that will command JA attention, Unlike Davis, Knox, or Shakir

 

[FireChans]

44 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Knox first year he got 28 rec. for 388 yards

Last year 48 for 517 yards

Ebron only played 13 games

Oj Howard plays on the line a lot more than slot.

 

To many inconsistenc1ies on your list. For example..

Hockenson only started 12 games first year

 

I don't think you get it...

#1, the numbers on other teams does not matter because who did some of them have throwing the rock?

#2, Kincaid will be out there weather Knox lines up or not.. Saying they share targets is silly considering Kincaid spent 2/3rds of the time or more in the slot.. per pff.

 

600 yards easy

 

 

The GM even said the 2 of them should "pair up nicely."  If anyone gets the rock less its Knox and Davis.

 

If this dude gets 40 catches? He does not stop at the point of catching a ball.. he will have 100 or more yards added to it.

 

Unlike knox.. this is a more trusted receiver that i could see easily pulling 600 yards this season.

 

This is a different beast that will command JA attention, Unlike Davis, Knox, or Shakir

 

Okay.

 

I would wager the rookie has the least amount of yards behind Diggs/Davis/Knox.  But maybe not!

1 hour ago, StHustle said:

They discussed your thread on the NYup SHOUT Bills podcast almost exactly 30 minutes in. 
 

They said your argument doesn’t work in this case.

 

 

 

They didn't even shout me out personally!  Hacks.

 

What they also forget is that a lot of those guys were drafted as TE1.  Our guy is going to be TE2 on the depth chart.

 

Pitts had 110 targets as a rookie. Kincaid ain't breaking 60.

Edited April 30, 2023 by FireChans

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, K-9 said:

And this is relevant how, exactly? Because one TE selected in the 1st round of one draft has absolutely NOTHING to do with any other TE selected in the first round of another draft. As if their relative success has nothing to do with the teams that selected them. 

Relevant in that historically, first round rookie TE's have not set the world on fire?

 

Now, some people argue that Kincaid is a better prospect that everyone else on that list and that's why he'll be different. That's cool too!

[StHustle]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Pitts had 110 targets as a rookie. Kincaid ain't breaking 60.

He will be in the Beasley role and catches everything so not sure why you think he won’t surpass 3-4 catches a game. It’s like your judging him like he’s a typical TE.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, StHustle said:

He will be in the Beasley role and catches everything so not sure why you think he won’t surpass 3-4 catches a game. It’s like you’re judging him like he’s a typical TE.

What I don’t think makes sense is to judge him against the production that an 8 year vet WR put up.

 

Isaiah McKenzie was used in the Beasley role last year. He only saw 65 targets, despite Crowder going down for the year, and our other rookie slot WR barely playing.

 

It took Cole Beasley himself 4 years in the league to see greater than 60 targets.

[ColoradoBills]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I'm expecting Kincaid to out-target Knox. Maybe not out snap Knox though. My guess would be each with about 40-50 receptions. If we are to believe that we will use Kincaid as our primary slot receiver I would expect him to out-target and out catch Knox quite easily. 

 

Good reasoning.  One thing that could be a side effect to Kincaid is Knox gets lost in the mix and performs well too.  

 

Generally speaking about all these catches and yards debate is the best that could come from this is a wide dispersion of players all catching

a good number of throws from Josh.  That's what I'm looking for.  I know in the world of fantasy football that is not what a lot of fans

want............but I could care less.  It's the team's success that matters.

[K-9]

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Relevant in that historically, first round rookie TE's have not set the world on fire?

 

Now, some people argue that Kincaid is a better prospect that everyone else on that list and that's why he'll be different. That's cool too!

Sorry, but I can’t agree with this at all. There is simply zero relevance, historical or otherwise. The entire context of each TE drafted and their individual team situations must be considered. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Sorry, but I can’t agree with this at all. There is simply zero relevance, historical or otherwise. The entire context of each TE drafted and their individual team situations must be considered. 

That’s what we’ve been considering for 7 pages lol

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What I don’t think makes sense is to judge him against the production that an 8 year vet WR put up.

 

Isaiah McKenzie was used in the Beasley role last year. He only saw 65 targets, despite Crowder going down for the year, and our other rookie slot WR barely playing.

 

It took Cole Beasley himself 4 years in the league to see greater than 60 targets.

1) You've shifted arguments. Are you now accepting or at least showing minimal cognizance that Kincaid is not Knox's backup or a typical TE2? He is a big slot or flex TE which is different.

 

2) McKenzie was a gadget guy and good against man. He wasn't great against zone because he couldn't find the soft spot. Beasley was excellent at the latter, so they are not the same kind of slot. It's likely with his physical advantage, truly superior catch skills, and feel for finding open areas that Kincaid will supersede either of the players you mentioned. 

 

3) Kincaid is not only adept at the chain moving plays that Beasley was great at, he can stretch the field and make the big plays Josh prizes. With his reliability as a pass catcher, I suspect he will quickly become a favorite and thus accrue many more targets than you surmise.

 

 

[StHustle]

39 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What I don’t think makes sense is to judge him against the production that an 8 year vet WR put up.

 

Isaiah McKenzie was used in the Beasley role last year. He only saw 65 targets, despite Crowder going down for the year, and our other rookie slot WR barely playing.

 

It took Cole Beasley himself 4 years in the league to see greater than 60 targets.

 

Those are two undrafted/late round pick guys. I was comparing opportunity potential and not talent level. McKenzie would have gotten many more targets if he produced better.
 

I peg Kincaid to get around 80 targets his rookie year. 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Okay.

 

I would wager the rookie has the least amount of yards behind Diggs/Davis/Knox.  But maybe not!

 

Make up your mind, man (or woman)!

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, StHustle said:

 

Those are two undrafted/late round pick guys. I was comparing opportunity potential and not talent level. McKenzie would have gotten many more targets if he produced better.
 

I peg Kincaid to get around 80 targets his rookie year. 

I will hammer the under.

 

That would have been the third most on the 2022 Bills.

[Rockinon]

Every time this kid is on the field, he will be running a route on passing plays.  Knox doesn't do that, staying in to block often. Last year that became more and more of a priority as the OL regressed. Kincaid will be targeted more than Knox for that reason alone. People keep blaming the OC for Knox's lack of production. Sometimes you just have to protect the QB. Having a second TE that can catch will open up the playbook.

 

Add in that he is a move TE that can go in motion presnap and can bump someone in open space while running his route, I believe he can be utilized as a major contributor on offense. He was also used as a blocker on running plays, moving to the edges to take out a smaller defender. His skillset is very different from Knox. I  believe they attempted to use Knox in motion, but he seemed a bit awkward in that role. Knox is a good all around TE, but Kincaid has the potential to be a major target on every passing down.

 

The offense is about to become much more physical. Bigger receiving targets, better OL play and more physical RB. The whole dynamic of this offense just screams domination....well on paper at least. Time will tell.