Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[HappyDays]

Just now, BillsShredder83 said:

35% snaps on the line. 45% slot.

Even at that, how many of the 35% snaps were blocking vs route running.

The little amount of blocking he's asked to do will be limited.

 

12 personnel forces the defense to make a personnel commitment. 

 

3 LBs? Fine, someone's open. Kincaid is a polished route runner, LB on him is tough

 

Run nickle? We can run it down your throat, or have a DB covering a guy 4-5"s taller.

 

NE has Digger as that hybrid nickle, who does NY & MIA have for that role? Rest of AFC. 

 

It's not a cure all but it's a natural mismatch. Makes coordinators job and Josh's job at the line easier

 

Exactly. I don't know why some people are still acting as if Kincaid and Knox are sharing one role. Beane said it himself, it isn't a secret - there will be times when Kincaid and Knox are on the field at the same time but we are still effectively in 11 personnel. But DCs won't be able to tell the difference until after the snap.

[MPL]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

8 minutes ago, MPL said:

TJ Hockenson - rookie in 2019. the Lions won 3 games. Stafford wasn't great, throwing just 19 TDs. The Lions were in the bottom half of the league for offenses. 
Noah Fant - Rookie in 2019. Denver won 7 games. QBs were Flacco and Drew Lock. They were 28th out of 32 in points scored. 
Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews - Rookies in 2018. Flacco started 9 games before Lamar took over. Flacco was washed. Lamar averaged under 150 yards passing per game in 2018. 
OJ Howard - Rookie in 2017. Tampa won 5 games. QBs were Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They were a bottom half offense. 
Evan Engram - Rookie in 2017. Eli Manning's last season. He was washed. The Giants won 3 games and finished 31st in scoring. Their offense was bad, and Engram was a lone bright spot. 
David Njoku - Rookie in 2017. The Browns won 0 games. Deshone Kizer was the QB. They finished 32nd in scoring. 
Eric Ebron - Rookie in 2014. Detroit won 11 games, but primarily because their of their Defense. The offense was 22nd in scoring. Stafford was okay that year — 4200 yards, 22 TDs. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate got the lion's share of targets, understandably. 
Tyler Eifert - Rookie in 2013. Bengals won 11 games and finished 6th in scoring. Dalton was solid this year, throwing for 4200 yards and 33 TDs. AJ Green had 178 targets that year. 
Kyle Pitts - Rookie in 2021. Falcons won 7 games. Matt Ryan was decent but definitely on the decline. Falcons were 26th in scoring. 
Travis Kelce - Rookie in 2013. Missed the entire year with an injury. 

For the most part, these Tight Ends were drafted by bad teams with bad offenses and bad Quarterbacks — or good Quarterbacks who were well on the decline.

I would make the argument that the situation that Kinkaid is coming into is nothing like what these Tight Ends were drafted into. Maybe the closest is Tyler Eifert going to the Bengals in 2013... but I feel pretty confident that Kinkaid has a much better skill set than Eifert, and that Josh Allen is a much better QB than Dalton ever was. I don't believe that past 1st round TE performance is indicative of what we can expect from Kinkaid. 

Will he go for 1000 yards and 8 TDs? Probably not. But this was a top 3 offense last season that improved the interior OLine. He should make more than enough plays to make an impact. 
 

I think the passing yard totals would probably be more meaningful than "scoring offenses" for a comparison like this.   Feels like the relative low numbers of TD's caught/red zone targets would be more all over the place than just raw targets/catches/yards.

2021 Falcons - 16th in passing yards
2019 Lions - 10th in passing yards
2019 Broncos - 28th in passing yards
2018 Ravens - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Browns - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Giants - 19th in passing yards
2017 Bucs - 4th in passing yards (Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and Adam Humphries saw majority of targets. Howard scored 6 TDs in 14 games).
2014 Lions - 12th in passing yards (Calvin Johnson was a target monster)
2013 Bengals - 8th in passing yards.

This doesn't change my feeling much. Mostly middling passing offenses that aren't comparable to the Bills offense. 2017 Bucs put up the most passing yards on the list and OJ Howard scored 6 TDs that year. I'd be happy with 6 TDs from Kinkaid this year, especially if it means less Josh Allen red zone interceptions. 
 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, MPL said:

2021 Falcons - 16th in passing yards
2019 Lions - 10th in passing yards
2019 Broncos - 28th in passing yards
2018 Ravens - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Browns - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Giants - 19th in passing yards
2017 Bucs - 4th in passing yards (Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and Adam Humphries saw majority of targets. Howard scored 6 TDs in 14 games).
2014 Lions - 12th in passing yards (Calvin Johnson was a target monster)
2013 Bengals - 8th in passing yards.

This doesn't change my feeling much. Mostly middling passing offenses that aren't comparable to the Bills offense. 2017 Bucs put up the most passing yards on the list and OJ Howard scored 6 TDs that year. I'd be happy with 6 TDs from Kinkaid this year, especially if it means less Josh Allen red zone interceptions. 
 

Definitely a lot of those offenses sucked!

 

From a YPT perspective:

Ebron 5.3

Pitts 9.3

OJ 11.1

Hurst 7.1

Njoku 6.4

Engam 6.3

Eifert 7.4

Hock 6.2

Fant 8.5

 

Kind of an interesting discrepancy. Fant with the third highest YPT on the worst passing offense.  OJ with an absolutely electric YPT but a bad career.

[MPL]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Definitely a lot of those offenses sucked!

 

From a YPT perspective:

Ebron 5.3

Pitts 9.3

OJ 11.1

Hurst 7.1

Njoku 6.4

Engam 6.3

Eifert 7.4

Hock 6.2

Fant 8.5

 

Kind of an interesting discrepancy. Fant with the third highest YPT on the worst passing offense.  OJ with an absolutely electric YPT but a bad career.

A torn Achilles will do that to ya. 

[bigK14094]

3 hours ago, 947 said:

TE is a steep learning curve for a rookie & few make much of an impact their first season. But looking at that list, the 2 who stand out, Pitts/Engram, are not true Y-TEs. They're technically F-TEs, but really just big WRs. Their learning curve is mainly route running, since they rarely inline block. Kincaid is in the same mold, he needs to learn the playbook & routes, he should be up to speed much quicker than a traditional TE would. He probably won't be working with Kromer on blocking, he'll be with the receivers.

He will learn to block so that counter tendency plays can be used to advantage.  And, I expect him to do well at it.  He could be a little bigger, but, as is stated here and elsewhere,  he is a receiver first.  I admit, I didn't see this coming, but, as long as Dorsey was part of the decision to go this direction, I am ok.

[Niagara Dude]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Not one player that you can turned into a star,  just another reason why Beane was stupid to waste a first and fourth on a position that we already have Knox at.  I don't care what number he had at Utah.  They could have traded down and got an extra 3rd and taken the monster TE from Georgia.  I like all his other picks,  just wished he had picked up a monster size DT.

[Chicken Boo]

A lot of posters in here expecting the world from Kincaid in 2023 are going to be very disappointed.

 

He will not be featured heavily in his rookie season.  It's not this regime's m.o.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I mean, I'm actually curious.

 

If you scouted all those dudes and have Kincaid as, at least, the second best TE prospect behind Pitts, that's really awesome.  I didn't scout them all.

 

If you didn't, I'd love to see from some other amateur or professional scout saying something similar.

Your post is noted 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Your post is noted 

How do you know he is the best prospect of all those dudes! I need to know!

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, FireChans said:

How do you know he is the best prospect of all those dudes! I need to know!

Like I said I will keep your post in mind about the first of November and you will see the way he used is not your typical TE rookie 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Like I said I will keep your post in mind about the first of November and you will see the way he used is not your typical TE rookie 

No I want to know, today, why you said he was the best TE prospect of the list of dudes I posted.  Then I can look forward to the 1st of November with you!

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, FireChans said:

No I want to know, today, why you said he was the best TE prospect of the list of dudes I posted.  Then I can look forward to the 1st of November with you!

November 1st mark it down  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

No one cares what you think, why do you care what they think?  That’s their prerogative if they think he’s going to be a star.   You just like to be “that guy”.  Grats 👏🏻 

 

Daniel Jeremiah had him as a top 10 player in the draft.  Why don’t you get on Twitter and bomb on him?  Flex on him with your knowledge.  Maybe he’ll hire you as his assistant if he finds you impressive.  

 

OK  LOL  

 

I'm sure we could review his "top-10s" in past years and find some interesting things.  

 

You willing to hitch your cred to his rankings now are ya.  LOL  

 

You're funny.   At least I leave open the possibility that players can beat the odds.  Apparently everyone that doesn't pencil him in as the next Gronk doesn't know what they're talking about.  ... LMAO  

 

... here's what he said about Ed Oliver;   He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with. 

 

That was a good one.   I guess he wasn't wrong.  He's a nightmare alright.  LOL  

 

And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020.  Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent.  LOL  

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by PBF81

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK  LOL  

 

I'm sure we could review his "top-10s" in past years and find some interesting things.  

 

You willing to hitch your cred to his rankings now are ya.  LOL  

 

You're funny.   At least I leave open the possibility that players can beat the odds.  Apparently everyone that doesn't pencil him in as the next Gronk doesn't know what they're talking about.  ... LMAO  

 

 

As you continue to put words in my mouth.  

 

All I did was state that there are others (that actually get paid for their opinion) that view him as potentially elite.  
 

I never said that that was MY opinion.  But continue to make things up.

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Exactly. I don't know why some people are still acting as if Kincaid and Knox are sharing one role. Beane said it himself, it isn't a secret - there will be times when Kincaid and Knox are on the field at the same time but we are still effectively in 11 personnel. But DCs won't be able to tell the difference until after the snap.

 

Well, defenses will get a pretty good clue when one lines up inline as a Y- TE  and the other as an F in the slot

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

As you continue to put words in my mouth.  

 

All I did was state that there are others (that actually get paid for their opinion) that view him as potentially elite.  
 

I never said that that was MY opinion.  But continue to make things up.   

 

Well, the implications certainly are there.  Also, perhaps not making an effort to hammer me rather than actually have a discussion would help.   And BTW, you've put some words in my mouth too.  

 

I realize that we're not all in agreement here, but discussion is part of it all.  I just love how all the optimists are 100% right tho all the time.  

 

BTW, given your deference towards paid experts, you did imply that, I added more to that last post, but I'll repeat it.  I'll leave it for you on these two dots as to how to connect them to whereever you wish.

 

... here's what he said about Ed Oliver;   He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with. 

 

That was a good one.   I guess he wasn't wrong.  He's a nightmare alright.  LOL  

 

And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020.  Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent.  LOL  

 

 

[Coldfronts]

I got a feeling he will be used in the red zone a lot in his first year..hands down, pun intended 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

A lot of posters in here expecting the world from Kincaid in 2023 are going to be very disappointed.

 

He will not be featured heavily in his rookie season.  It's not this regime's m.o.

 

Quite frankly, that's bull####.

 

McDermott isn't subtle or secretive about his POV: best 11 guys earn the right to play.  If that's a rookie, it's a rookie.  If it's a late-round rookie over a 1st round rookie, it's a late-round guy over a 1st round guy. 

If a rookie fan fave isn't playing, it's because from the grading the coaches do of practice and game film, he hasn't earned more snaps over the veteran guy.

 

Of course, it was easier to be better than the incumbent earlier in McDermott's tenure when the team wasn't as good, than it became the last couple years with more returning talent each year.  But when there have been holes in the roster, the rookies have played.

 

Tre White, started 16 games and played 99% of the snaps as a rookie

Zay Jones, started 10 games, 79% of the snaps.  He stunk as a route runner and had butter hands, but by damn he played.

Dion Dawkins, started 11 games, 74%

Matt Milano, started 5 games, 41% of the snaps

 

Josh Allen we all know about

Tremaine Edmunds played 15 games and 96% of the snaps on D as a rookie.

Harrison Phillips, played in 16 games (0 starts), 38% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Taron Johnson, started 2 games, played in 11, 57% of the snaps

Wyatt Teller, started 7 games, played in 8, 85% of the snaps

 

Ed Oliver, started 7 games, played in 16, 54% of the snaps as a rookie (on DL where McD always rotates)

Cody Ford, started 15 games, played in 16, 69% of the snaps

Devin Singletary, started 8 games, played in 11, 67% of the snaps

Dawson Knox, started 11 games, played in 15, 64% of the snaps

 

Do I need to keep going?

OK

Gabe Davis started 11 games, played in 16, 73% of the snaps

 

Greg Rousseau started 17 games, 49% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Spencer Brown started 10 games, played in 13, 78% of the snaps

 

Kaiir Elam started 6 games, played in 13, 57% of the snaps

Christian Benford, started 5 games, played in 9, 62% of the snaps

Khalil Shakir, started 2 games, played in 14, 29% of the snaps

 

Bottom line there's no reason to believe that if Kincaid masters the playbook and game plan and goes hard in practice, he won't be featured to at least the extent that Knox was as a rookie - playing 60-70% of the snaps in every game (whether it starts with him on the field or not).  We have a gap in our roster at slot receiver, Beane has indicated they view Kincaid as a "big slot" type player, the Day is His to be Seized.

 

And the next time someone glibly says McDermott won't play rookies, feel free to link this post for them.

 

[Chicken Boo]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Quite frankly, that's bull####.

 

McDermott isn't subtle or secretive about his POV: best 11 guys earn the right to play.  If that's a rookie, it's a rookie.  If it's a late-round rookie over a 1st round rookie, it's a late-round guy over a 1st round guy. 

If a rookie fan fave isn't playing, it's because from the grading the coaches do of practice and game film, he hasn't earned more snaps over the veteran guy.

 

Of course, it was easier to be better than the incumbent earlier in McDermott's tenure when the team wasn't as good, than it became the last couple years with more returning talent each year.  But when there have been holes in the roster, the rookies have played.

 

Tre White, started 16 games and played 99% of the snaps as a rookie

Zay Jones, started 10 games, 79% of the snaps.  He stunk as a route runner and had butter hands, but by damn he played.

Dion Dawkins, started 11 games, 74%

Matt Milano, started 5 games, 41% of the snaps

 

Josh Allen we all know about

Tremaine Edmunds played 15 games and 96% of the snaps on D as a rookie.

Harrison Phillips, played in 16 games (0 starts), 38% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Taron Johnson, started 2 games, played in 11, 57% of the snaps

Wyatt Teller, started 7 games, played in 8, 85% of the snaps

 

Ed Oliver, started 7 games, played in 16, 54% of the snaps as a rookie (on DL where McD always rotates)

Cody Ford, started 15 games, played in 16, 69% of the snaps

Devin Singletary, started 8 games, played in 11, 67% of the snaps

Dawson Knox, started 11 games, played in 15, 64% of the snaps

 

Do I need to keep going?

OK

Gabe Davis started 11 games, played in 16, 73% of the snaps

 

Greg Rousseau started 17 games, 49% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Spencer Brown started 10 games, played in 13, 78% of the snaps

 

Kaiir Elam started 6 games, played in 13, 57% of the snaps

Christian Benford, started 5 games, played in 9, 62% of the snaps

Khalil Shakir, started 2 games, played in 14, 29% of the snaps

 

Bottom line there's no reason to believe that if Kincaid masters the playbook and game plan and goes hard in practice, he won't be featured to at least the extent that Knox was as a rookie - playing 60-70% of the snaps in every game (whether it starts with him on the field or not).  We have a gap in our roster at slot receiver, Beane has indicated they view Kincaid as a "big slot" type player, the Day is His to be Seized.

 

And the next time someone glibly says McDermott won't play rookies, feel free to link this post for them.

 

 

Talk to me around week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year.

[JoPoy88]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

what awfully simplistic analysis! Great job.