Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[FireChans]

Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

I’ll remember this post and laugh at you around the middle of the season when people are wondering how he dropped that far 

I mean, I'm actually curious.

 

If you scouted all those dudes and have Kincaid as, at least, the second best TE prospect behind Pitts, that's really awesome.  I didn't scout them all.

 

If you didn't, I'd love to see from some other amateur or professional scout saying something similar.

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I’ll remember this post and laugh at you around the middle of the season when people are wondering how he dropped that far 

 

This entire thread is going to be fun to save and revisit.  

 

I realize that euphoria runs high this time of year, but some of these expectations and predictions ... LOL  

 

 

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Nothin' like a recently signed $13M/season player sitting on the bench.  

 

 

 

You should know that saying things like this, where it is clear to anyone paying attention that you don't have a clue what you're talking about, is a really bad look. I'm sure you don't care. Just wanted you to know.

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by HappyDays

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

This entire thread is going to be fun to save and revisit.  

 

I realize that euphoria runs high this time of year, but some of these expectations and predictions ... LOL  

 

 

Oh I’m still ticked they took Elam over Hall or Pickens last year but that’s why the draft is so much fun 

[1ManRaid]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

Despite him being hailed as a pass catcher YAC threat, you project him to have the lowest yards per catch of the last decade?

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

You should know that saying things like this, where it is clear to anyone paying attention that you don't have a clue what you're talking about, is a really bad look. I'm sure you don't care. Just wanted you to know.

 

 

A bad look?  

 

So you think that keeping a player like that as a backup was a solid move then?  ... if that ends up happening.  Because that's your implication.  I'm not sure that's a good look, but call me crazy.  LOL  

 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, 1ManRaid said:

 

Despite him being hailed as a pass catcher YAC threat, you project him to have the lowest yards per catch of the last decade?

I meant those numbers as rough estimates.  400 something yards, not 400 on the nose lol.

[nedboy7]

Was there a WR prospect at #26 that would clearly provide more production based on historical data?

[MPL]

20 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

1 hour ago, MPL said:

Who were the quarterbacks throwing to these guys? How did these offenses perform overall throughout the course of the season? Did these teams have a top 10 passing attack? 

Well you had Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford (twice), Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Lamar Jackson in there. Multiple pro bowlers, a league MVP, multiple top 10 offenses and perhaps even a Hall of Famer or 3.

Is that not good enough?

TJ Hockenson - rookie in 2019. the Lions won 3 games. Stafford wasn't great, throwing just 19 TDs. The Lions were in the bottom half of the league for offenses. 
Noah Fant - Rookie in 2019. Denver won 7 games. QBs were Flacco and Drew Lock. They were 28th out of 32 in points scored. 
Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews - Rookies in 2018. Flacco started 9 games before Lamar took over. Flacco was washed. Lamar averaged under 150 yards passing per game in 2018. 
OJ Howard - Rookie in 2017. Tampa won 5 games. QBs were Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They were a bottom half offense. 
Evan Engram - Rookie in 2017. Eli Manning's last season. He was washed. The Giants won 3 games and finished 31st in scoring. Their offense was bad, and Engram was a lone bright spot. 
David Njoku - Rookie in 2017. The Browns won 0 games. Deshone Kizer was the QB. They finished 32nd in scoring. 
Eric Ebron - Rookie in 2014. Detroit won 11 games, but primarily because their of their Defense. The offense was 22nd in scoring. Stafford was okay that year — 4200 yards, 22 TDs. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate got the lion's share of targets, understandably. 
Tyler Eifert - Rookie in 2013. Bengals won 11 games and finished 6th in scoring. Dalton was solid this year, throwing for 4200 yards and 33 TDs. AJ Green had 178 targets that year. 
Kyle Pitts - Rookie in 2021. Falcons won 7 games. Matt Ryan was decent but definitely on the decline. Falcons were 26th in scoring. 
Travis Kelce - Rookie in 2013. Missed the entire year with an injury. 

For the most part, these Tight Ends were drafted by bad teams with bad offenses and bad Quarterbacks — or good Quarterbacks who were well on the decline.

I would make the argument that the situation that Kinkaid is coming into is nothing like what these Tight Ends were drafted into. Maybe the closest is Tyler Eifert going to the Bengals in 2013... but I feel pretty confident that Kinkaid has a much better skill set than Eifert, and that Josh Allen is a much better QB than Dalton ever was. I don't believe that past 1st round TE performance is indicative of what we can expect from Kinkaid. 

Will he go for 1000 yards and 8 TDs? Probably not. But this was a top 3 offense last season that improved the interior OLine. He should make more than enough plays to make an impact. 
 

[1ManRaid]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I meant those numbers as rough estimates.  400 something yards, not 400 on the nose lol.

 

I know.  400 something yards on 40 something receptions is 10 yards per catch, which puts him at the bottom with Ebron compared to the rest of the list.

[FireChans]

Just now, MPL said:

TJ Hockenson - rookie in 2019. the Lions won 3 games. Stafford wasn't great, throwing just 19 TDs. The Lions were in the bottom half of the league for offenses. 
Noah Fant - Rookie in 2019. Denver won 7 games. QBs were Flacco and Drew Lock. They were 28th out of 32 in points scored. 
Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews - Rookies in 2018. Flacco started 9 games before Lamar took over. Flacco was washed. Lamar averaged under 150 yards passing per game in 2018. 
OJ Howard - Rookie in 2017. Tampa won 5 games. QBs were Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They were a bottom half offense. 
Evan Engram - Rookie in 2017. Eli Manning's last season. He was washed. The Giants won 3 games and finished 31st in scoring. Their offense was bad, and Engram was a lone bright spot. 
David Njoku - Rookie in 2017. The Browns won 0 games. Deshone Kizer was the QB. They finished 32nd in scoring. 
Eric Ebron - Rookie in 2014. Detroit won 11 games, but primarily because their of their Defense. The offense was 22nd in scoring. Stafford was okay that year — 4200 yards, 22 TDs. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate got the lion's share of targets, understandably. 
Tyler Eifert - Rookie in 2013. Bengals won 11 games and finished 6th in scoring. Dalton was solid this year, throwing for 4200 yards and 33 TDs. AJ Green had 178 targets that year. 
Kyle Pitts - Rookie in 2021. Falcons won 7 games. Matt Ryan was decent but definitely on the decline. Falcons were 26th in scoring. 
Travis Kelce - Rookie in 2013. Missed the entire year with an injury. 

For the most part, these Tight Ends were drafted by bad teams with bad offenses and bad Quarterbacks — or good Quarterbacks who were well on the decline.

I would make the argument that the situation that Kinkaid is coming into is nothing like what these Tight Ends were drafted into. Maybe the closest is Tyler Eifert going to the Bengals in 2013... but I feel pretty confident that Kinkaid has a much better skill set than Eifert, and that Josh Allen is a much better QB than Dalton ever was. I don't believe that past 1st round TE performance is indicative of what we can expect from Kinkaid. 

Will he go for 1000 yards and 8 TDs? Probably not. But this was a top 3 offense last season that improved the interior OLine. He should make more than enough plays to make an impact. 
 

I think the passing yard totals would probably be more meaningful than "scoring offenses" for a comparison like this.   Feels like the relative low numbers of TD's caught/red zone targets would be more all over the place than just raw targets/catches/yards.

Just now, 1ManRaid said:

 

I know.  400 something yards on 40 something receptions is 10 yards per catch, which puts him at the bottom with Ebron compared to the rest of the list.

Dawson Knox averaged 10.8 YPC this past season, 48 for 517. 

 

If your prediction is 40 something catches for 520 yards, that's fine too!

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Oh I’m still ticked they took Elam over Hall or Pickens last year but that’s why the draft is so much fun 

 

LOL, it's fun indeed.  

 

But insofar as we go, if anyone is not deserving of any benefits of the doubt, it's Beane.  

 

As with you, I'm miffed that we took Cook over Dean.  

 

I'm not particularly upset with the Kincaid pick, but only because Torrence fell to us in round 2 and no real ILB/MLB was available.  But the existing state of the team/roster, now after six drafts, clearly befalls Beane.  

 

Meanwhile, things like the signings of forecasts of impact play by Sherfield and Hasty are interesting given the drafting of Kincaid.  So many receivers now and so few balls, namely one, to go around.  

 

Last season only one of our receivers had more than 48 catches.  Only three had more than 42.  Do all of those players (Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, Knox, and Kincaid) all make the roster?  

 

Last season all 7 of our non-RB receivers caught a total of 270 balls.  Assuming that Diggs gets his normal 110-120, thatw ould leave about 150 for the other 6 such receivers.  (WRs and TEs)  

 

I'm just curious  where those go.  

 

 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

So you think that keeping a player like that as a backup was a solid move then?  ... if that ends up happening.  Because that's your implication.  I'm not sure that's a good look, but call me crazy.

 

Thanks. Keep posting clueless nonsense like this. It helps everyone know the kind of poster they're dealing with. Me, I have no interest in debating anything with you.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

So like Mark Andrews?  So like Travis Kelce?

 

BTW, Andrews has been Baltimore's primary receiving threat since he's been on the team essentially.  They've never had any good WRs since he's been there.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Thanks. Keep posting clueless nonsense like this. It helps everyone know the kind of poster they're dealing with. Me, I have no interest in debating anything with you.

 

I can see why not.   LOL 

[TheBrownBear]

Well, that does it!  Kincaid is obviously going to suck!  Should have stuck to another zone CB or lunch pail DE.

[Donuts and Doritos]

If you listed all the QBs taken in the 1st round, bet you'd find a high rate of busts there too.  Doesn't mean teams aren't going to continue to draft them.

 

This pick all depends how he's played. If they split him out like Beane said & like KC does w/ Kelce, he's going to be more like a WR & he'll be a star. It all depends on Dorsey (frankly if he can't do it, fire him & find someone who can). Personally, I love the pick.

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Donuts and Doritos

[HappyDays]

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Some other good TE rookie years:

 

Gronk: 42 rec 546 yards 10 TD's

Gonzalez: 33 rec 368 yards 2 TD's

 

Honestly, it's been a common school of thought that TE's take some time to really develop, and the numbers pretty clearly support that.

 

Every 1st round pick should come with the disclaimer that they aren't going to produce as much as fans want them to. I'm as guilty of this as anyone, so it's fair to say that Kincaid will not be an immediate superstar in year one. Utah isn't exactly a powerhouse so he will have to acclimate to the pros more than some. You don't draft 1st rounders for their year one production though.

 

Still I think he will be a very important role player in the offense this year, which is about as good as you could have hoped for with anybody we drafted at that spot. If I'm right about him we will see flashes of that Travis Kelce ceiling and hopefully have a true superstar in year two or three.

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by HappyDays

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Wait so it's not a good idea to trade up for a TE (especially when you already have one that you don't use)? That can't be right. Beane can do no wrong

35% snaps on the line. 45% slot.

Even at that, how many of the 35% snaps were blocking vs route running.

The little amount of blocking he's asked to do will be limited.

 

12 personnel forces the defense to make a personnel commitment. 

 

3 LBs? Fine, someone's open. Kincaid is a polished route runner, LB on him is tough

 

Run nickle? We can run it down your throat, or have a DB covering a guy 4-5"s taller.

 

NE has Digger as that hybrid nickle, who does NY & MIA have for that role? Rest of AFC. 

 

It's not a cure all but it's a natural mismatch. Makes coordinators job and Josh's job at the line easier

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Every 1st round pick should come with the disclaimer that they aren't going to produce as much as fans want them too. I'm as guilty of this as anyone, so it's fair to say that Kincaid will not be an immediate superstar in year one. Utah isn't exactly a powerhouse so he will have to acclimate to the pros more than some. You don't draft 1st rounders for their year one production though.

 

Still I think he will be a very important role player in the offense this year, which is about as good as you could have hoped for with anybody we drafted at that spot. If I'm right about him we will see flashes of that Travis Kelce ceiling and hopefully have a true superstar in year two or three.

I am ABSOLUTELY of the opinion that the bolded is correct.

 

If Kincaid is a superstar 2-3 years from now, the pick obviously rules.  Not sure we will get that answer until 2-3 years from now.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

And funny tho, isn't it, that quite a few people here are suggesting nearly that.  

 

I think that people should pump the brakes and consider that he didn't exactly load up on stats against players that will end up being starters in the NFL.  IMO it's a good thing he skipped the combine, despite it being for his back.  

 

 

 

And Beane doesn't have time.  This is his sixth year product, if we can't win the division and at least advance to the Conference Championship Game, the tough questions need to start being asked, and both fans and media will at least begin to cascade down on them.  

 

 

No one cares what you think, why do you care what they think?  That’s their prerogative if they think he’s going to be a star.   You just like to be “that guy”.  Grats 👏🏻 

 

Daniel Jeremiah had him as a top 10 player in the draft.  Why don’t you get on Twitter and bomb on him?  Flex on him with your knowledge.  Maybe he’ll hire you as his assistant if he finds you impressive.