Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, KDIGGZ said:

The point by the OP is that this guy can have a great year by TE standards and it won't amount to much production at all. He might be great but who cares if he only has 400 yards receiving? That's not pushing us over the edge towards super bowl contention

Honestly it just depends on how exactly we use him. He could be on the field for a ton simply because of his safety blanket abilities. Something Knox was supposed to develop into but doesn’t seem like he’s capable of that kind of consistency. It would not surprise me if he has closer to 800 yards if he’s in the slot a good amount. 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Chaos said:

TD number is on the high side, but i think the yardage number is realistic. 

I actually looked it up.

 

Only 11 times in NFL history have two TE's on the same time each surpassed 500 yards.

 

Attached is an article from 2017 discussing the historic pace of Cam Brate and OJ Howard (a pace that they ended up not continuing at)

 

From the data in this article, only 4 teams have EVER had their two TE's accumulate >1400 yards combined when both have had at least 500 yards.

 

So something that has only happened four times in NFL history.  Only once since 1984, and that was Gronk/Hernandez.

 

I don't think that's realistic.

 

Edit: forgot the article!
 

https://www.buccaneers.com/news/data-crunch-nfl-s-most-prolific-tight-ends-19655150

Edited April 29, 2023 by FireChans

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

I will add that of those, Pitts was on pace for a mere 600 yards and 3 TDs last season had he played all 17.

 

Hockinson has averaged about 450 & 4.5 TDs per season.

 

It's questionable whether he was worth a 1st round pick, as he wasn't worth an 8th overall.  

 

Whether Pitts was worth a 4th overall remains to be seen.  

 

Otherwise not a one in that batch was worth a 1st round pick and all have underachieved. 

 

Kincaid faces am uphill battle. 

 

Also, one ball, and Diggs, Davis, Shakira, Sherfield, Hasty, Knox, & Kincaid.  

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by PBF81

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It is moving the goalposts when you use first round pick as the premise for your post…… then YOU bring up Mike Gesicki…..and then rebut Kelce and Andrews because they weren’t 1st round picks….. which Gesicki wasn’t either.  
 

have fun being you.

What was my point besides to draw production comparisons?

 

It was very clear.  I made my OP with 1st round TE's because we had a first round TE.  A poster (not named you) brought up that maybe we should be comparing to other TE's that are used primarily in receiving roles. I posted Mike Gesicki's stats as a rookie as a comparison (because he is infamous for almost never lining up inside and playing big slot exclusively). Then you started screeching about Travis Kelce, and I posted his stats as well for comparison.

 

Just hit the big red X in the top corner baby.  It's time for a nap.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

 

But making it more relevant is that he isn't known for his speed which can't be coached up.  He played against second tier talent in college.  We'll have to wait and see how that impacts his play at this level.  

 

I have strong doubts.  

 

 

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

But making it more relevant is that he isn't known for his speed which can't be coached up.  He played against second tier talent in college.  We'll have to wait and see how that impacts his play at this level.  

 

I have strong doubts.  

 

 

Didn't he have his best game against USC?

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

So like Mark Andrews?  So like Travis Kelce?

 

Fair points.

 

So you're saying that Kincaid is as good as those two then?

 

 

[PBF81]

10 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Didn't he have his best game against USC?

 

And one of his worst in the PAC-12 CG.  Yes.

 

In the latter he was the 5th leading receiver on his own team, and 9th in the game contributing next to nothing in that game.

 

USC had a horrible pass D in a conference that is hardly known for it's defense, which is why I'm not a fan of offensive players from the PAC-12.  

 

None of Kincaid's top 4 games were against anything but teams ranked near the bottom in pass D.  One was against Southern Utah, a nothing FCS team.  Neither were most of his other games.  He did nothing impressive in those.  

 

Do with that info what you will, but look at his gamelogs.  

 

We'll see whether he translates well to the speed of the NFL.  I have doubts.  Hope he does, but I have doubts.  

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Wait so it's not a good idea to trade up for a TE (especially when you already have one that you don't use)? That can't be right. Beane can do no wrong

 

Nothin' like a recently signed $13M/season player sitting on the bench.  

 

 

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Fair points.

 

So you're saying that Kincaid is as good as those two then?

 

 

Lol…. Yeah man.  That’s EXACTLY what I’m saying. In fact.  I’m saying that he’s better than both of them.  Combined.   Good thing you’re so intuitive or you might have missed all of that

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol…. Yeah man.  That’s EXACTLY what I’m saying. In fact.  I’m saying that he’s better than both of them.  Combined.   Good thing you’re so intuitive or you might have missed all of that

 

Just checking.  😉

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Kincaid is arguably a better prospect then every single one of them not named Kyle Pitts and to be honest if Kincaid was in the SEC they’d be calling him Kyle Pitts the second 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

 

Yes, Beane openly said this would be his role in the offense. In 15 games played in 2020 Beasley had 107 targets, 82 catches, 967 yards. I'm obviously not expecting equivalent production from a rookie on an offense with more slot options than we had in 2020. But I find that comparison more instructive than looking at players that had completely different skill sets and different roles in different offenses.

[FireChans]

Some other good TE rookie years:

 

Gronk: 42 rec 546 yards 10 TD's

Gonzalez: 33 rec 368 yards 2 TD's

 

Honestly, it's been a common school of thought that TE's take some time to really develop, and the numbers pretty clearly support that.

[QLBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

1. He's got Allen throwing to him.

2. We really need a short chain-moving option Kincaid is now it.

3. I would be shocked he Kincaid doesn't get at least 500 yards. And I would not be shocked if he hits 800.

Yes apparently some folks didn’t listen to BB. He’s going to be on the field. He’s not going to play inline TE much. He’s allows the Bills to dictate to the D. They will have he Knox, Diggs, and Davis together. I suspect your prediction above is accurate. 

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol…. Yeah man.  That’s EXACTLY what I’m saying. In fact.  I’m saying that he’s better than both of them.  Combined.   Good thing you’re so intuitive or you might have missed all of that

 

And funny tho, isn't it, that quite a few people here are suggesting nearly that.  

 

I think that people should pump the brakes and consider that he didn't exactly load up on stats against players that will end up being starters in the NFL.  IMO it's a good thing he skipped the combine, despite it being for his back.  

 

 

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Some other good TE rookie years:

 

Gronk: 42 rec 546 yards 10 TD's

Gonzalez: 33 rec 368 yards 2 TD's

 

Honestly, it's been a common school of thought that TE's take some time to really develop, and the numbers pretty clearly support that.

 

And Beane doesn't have time.  This is his sixth year product, if we can't win the division and at least advance to the Conference Championship Game, the tough questions need to start being asked, and both fans and media will at least begin to cascade down on them.  

 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Kincaid is arguably a better prospect then every single one of them not named Kyle Pitts and to be honest if Kincaid was in the SEC they’d be calling him Kyle Pitts the second 

Did you scout all those guys?

 

NFL.com's prospect has him at 6.48.

Hock was 6.80.

Fant was 6.40

OJ was a 7.

Njoku was a 6.80.

Ebron was a 6.80.

Engram was a 6.40.

Pitts was a 7.19.

Hurst was 6.40.

 

Based on NFL.com, that looks kinda middle of the pack.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I think Kincaid is treated more like a jumbo slot receiver and Knox will stay in-line and block half the time.

 

If the defense plays in nickel to put a db on him, I'd move him back in-line and run it. If they put a lb on Kincaid, I'm confident in his ability to get open. 

 

I think 500 yards is realistic if he stays healthy.

 

500 yards on 10 YPR (slot) is 50 catches.  Only one player on our team last season caught 50+ balls.  

 

Only 3 caught more than 42.  

 

Unless Knox is replaced by Kincaid, not sure I see him getting 50+ catches or even close.  

 

And if he does replace Knox, then is it OK to question why Beane just signed Knox to a $52M contract while letting Edmunds go?  Asking for a friend.  

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, FireChans said:

Did you scout all those guys?

 

NFL.com's prospect has him at 6.48.

Hock was 6.80.

Fant was 6.40

OJ was a 7.

Njoku was a 6.80.

Ebron was a 6.80.

Engram was a 6.40.

Pitts was a 7.19.

Hurst was 6.40.

 

Based on NFL.com, that looks kinda middle of the pack.

I’ll remember this post and laugh at you around the middle of the season when people are wondering how he dropped that far 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

1. He's got Allen throwing to him.

2. We really need a short chain-moving option Kincaid is now it.

3. I would be shocked he Kincaid doesn't get at least 500 yards. And I would not be shocked if he hits 800.

 

Hopefully Allen's elbow is fully healed, word was that he couldn't throw those short passes very well as a result.  

 

Just sayin'.